Chris Godwin Heat Check

[Forza_Azzurri]

Dude is an average NFL QB, imho. It doesn't really detract from the fantasy appeal of his WRs and TE. And I actually think with Arians there, that Tampa will have a good offense in 2019 and beyond. I own Goodwin in DLF Premium League, and I would not sell him for 1.05. That's absurd.

2017: 34/55 (61% rec per.) for 525 yards (15.44 yards per catch) and 1 TD
2018: 59/95 (62%) for 842 yards (14.27 ypc) and 7 TDs
My conservative projection for 2019: 74/120 (62%) for 1,110 yards (15 ypc) and 8 TDs (Arians loves bombing it deep)

That's 216 points in PPR (with 4pt TDs). Not elite #s, but mid WR2 #s in a 12 teamer, and high WR2 #s in a 16 teamer. And the guy just turned 23 in February!

Heck, I just convinced myself not to take 1.02 if it was offered to me!

He had one miserable game last year where he caught something like 1 of 10 targets ... assuming that’s an outlier, I expect his catch rate to be much better this year.

[Bot101]

Dude is an average NFL QB, imho. It doesn't really detract from the fantasy appeal of his WRs and TE. And I actually think with Arians there, that Tampa will have a good offense in 2019 and beyond. I own Goodwin in DLF Premium League, and I would not sell him for 1.05. That's absurd.

2017: 34/55 (61% rec per.) for 525 yards (15.44 yards per catch) and 1 TD
2018: 59/95 (62%) for 842 yards (14.27 ypc) and 7 TDs
My conservative projection for 2019: 74/120 (62%) for 1,110 yards (15 ypc) and 8 TDs (Arians loves bombing it deep)

That's 216 points in PPR (with 4pt TDs). Not elite #s, but mid WR2 #s in a 12 teamer, and high WR2 #s in a 16 teamer. And the guy just turned 23 in February!

Heck, I just convinced myself not to take 1.02 if it was offered to me!

He had one miserable game last year where he caught something like 1 of 10 targets ... assuming that’s an outlier, I expect his catch rate to be much better this year.

From what I recall someone I follow on Twitter said 9 of the 10 targets were uncatchable. The one that was catchable, he caught.

[Cult of Dionysus]

But same QB...

[Bot101]

But same QB...

Yes. I do recall that week pretty vividly though. The Saints were all over Winston the entire game. He had no time to make a throw most of the game. I dont give Winston very many passes. But I gave him one that week.

[TampaBay216]

Agreed. Arians can only improve his situation. Godwins floor sits around back end WR2/WR3.
His ceiling, back end WR1.
I’m buying wherever I can, even overpaying in some leagues. Clear breakout coming here guys.
Winston will be Winston, but as long as Arians is coach and Winston is throwing it deep, there will be plenty of fantasy points to be had.

[Huh]

Bucs gm yesterday mentioned Godwin in the slot. That’s about the fifth time this offseason that upper management there talked about Godwin playing in the slot. He’s going to catch buckets of balls

[Phaded]

I do not understand why they keep saying it..
I thought it was obvious?
lol

[Huh]

I do not understand why they keep saying it..
I thought it was obvious?
lol

They must have a unnatural affinity for humphries and are just trying to reinforce in their mind that it will be okay.

[Valhalla]

I remember when Hue Jackson was a QB whisperer. So was Adam Gase.

[ebsteelers]

so he is worth an early 2019 first rounder?

[ArrylT]

I am curious about his splits with both Winston and Fitzpatrick from last year.

[Huh]

I am curious about his splits with both Winston and Fitzpatrick from last year.

I don’t know that it necessarily applies if Godwin is primarily in the slot. Godwin, Humphries and brate combined, got a lot of targets working out of the slot with Winston. We should be looking at that when trying to decide godwins target share or possibly how fitzy was used out of the slot when arians was there. Or maybe it is impossible to forecast it at all with a new offense coming in.

[tresskid84]

Some of this Chris Godwin love reminds me of the Donte Moncrief vs. TY Hilton a few years ago. A lot of people kept thinking Moncrief would just take over and cast Hilton aside - and I wont deny I had my hopes that was a possibility - but maybe a reality check is needed if you think Godwin is just going to push Evans aside.

1 - Evans is under contract until 2023

In other words at the moment he is there for the remainder of his prime

2 - His dead cap is 31 million for 2019

In other words if the Buccaneers trade him this year I believe they'll eat more dead cap than the Giants & Steelers did with Brown & Beckham. Considering they have like 5m in cap space or less ...

3 - 5 years of 1000+ yard seasons but only 1 season where his targets were top 5 (and most were barely top 10).

In other words he has given 5 years of WR1 or WR2 production without needing a massive target tally, and the 1 year he actually got elite Target totals he had an elite Top 3 season.

He was drafted to be an elite WR (7th overall). He is paid like an elite WR (3rd best contract after Brown & Odell). He produces like an elite WR.

Oh and remember even with Moncrief the Colts elected to re-sign Hilton, much like the Buccaneers elected to give Evans a big contract with Godwin already in the fold (Godwin drafted 2017, Evans contract extension 2018).

So no Chris Godwin is not likely to change that. Maybe Godwin will be Juju to Evans Brown. But Godwin at this time is not going to take over the #1 role in TB without a lot more evidence.

Feel free to keep dreaming though.

Just wanted to update this piece from earlier:

This is their dead cap if the cut him . . . if they trade Evans, the Bucs actually would have ZERO dead cap because his guarantees are all in his salary (which transfers to the new team), as he did not have a signing bonus (therefor, all the guarantees he does have, go with the contract).

Still, I find it unlikely they trade him at this point, but there is literally nothing financially holding them back from doing so.

[Cameron Giles]

so he is worth an early 2019 first rounder?

Yes. I'm surprised there are people who won't even trade a mid first in this dumpster of a draft class for a breakout candidate like Godwin. Evans, Godwin and Howard are going to kill it next season.

[Pac_Eddy]

I think it's odd that so many hate this draft class. It's never as bad as it seems. There will be gems. Maybe it's just that there's no clear cut number one overall pick.