Chris Godwin Heat Check

[ArrylT]

Yes I apologize if I in anyway was suggesting a comparison between Moncrief & Godwin in player style or talent - simply on situation & hype - ie Moncriefs ADP at one point in 2016 was equal to or above TY Hiltons - and I didnt want Godwins hype to reach that level.

[Ice]

Yes I apologize if I in anyway was suggesting a comparison between Moncrief & Godwin in player style or talent - simply on situation & hype - ie Moncriefs ADP at one point in 2016 was equal to or above TY Hiltons - and I didnt want Godwins hype to reach that level.

Oh I didn't take it that way but that makes sense.

Wow on his ADP! I am not a fan of ADP in general but that is a lot of group think ever thinking Moncrief was at Hilton's level.

[FantasyFreak]

Part of what is wrong with Winston is mechanical, but his greatest flaw is between the ears...always has been and always will be and Arians will not help in that regard one iota. TB was a top offense last year for fantasy and that was with a journeyman outplaying Winston for much of the year. Can Winston put up good numbers this year? Absolutely, but it will not be because of him, it will be in spite of him. Think Bortles while he was putting up great fantasy numbers. Also, the idea that Arians is a QB whisperer is false. His real track record is far from his supposed legend.

Yeah I disagree on this. Jameis has never been as bad as Bortles. Jameis’s issues have been turnovers. He got off to a bad start last season but was very good in 2017 and was also pretty good after he got his job back. Fitzpatrick outplayed him for about 4 games, not the season. Jameis had a 13-4 TD:INT ratio after coming back and a career high completion % and maintained a 7.9 YPA. His best days are ahead of him.

Winston is a turnover machine and that will never change, IMO. TB was close to giving up on him. While Bortles is worse, Winston is never going to be a top tier QB. He is just not smart enough, on, or off the field.

[FantasyFreak]

I like him but 1000 yards this year may be premature.

I think Evans & Godwin split the DJax targets whereas Howard will probably get most of Humphries.

Then Watson is a wild card.

Re: Jameis, Arians said his inaccuracy is mechanical, so lets see what happens when he actually has a coach that can help him for the first time.

You'd figure someone else would have spotted this by now. The idea that a 5th year QB is suddenly going to change his mechanics and become more accurate just because he got a new coach is far fetched. Personally I think Arians might be over the hill. I hope not, as I have a few Bucs in various leagues, but I have zero expectations of Arians doing anything to suddenly make Winston a more accurate passer, and nobody can do anything about his even bigger issue: Decision making.

[Ice]

I like him but 1000 yards this year may be premature.

I think Evans & Godwin split the DJax targets whereas Howard will probably get most of Humphries.

Then Watson is a wild card.

Re: Jameis, Arians said his inaccuracy is mechanical, so lets see what happens when he actually has a coach that can help him for the first time.

You'd figure someone else would have spotted this by now. The idea that a 5th year QB is suddenly going to change his mechanics and become more accurate just because he got a new coach is far fetched. Personally I think Arians might be over the hill. I hope not, as I have a few Bucs in various leagues, but I have zero expectations of Arians doing anything to suddenly make Winston a more accurate passer, and nobody can do anything about his even bigger issue: Decision making.

Winston's accuracy has improved each year.
58.3
60.8
63.8
64.6

Agree on his decision making but if they can get hm to better align his feet with his shoulders the ball won't sail every once in a while and that could cut down on a few ints.

Often times it is about how someone is taught. Arians is known as a QB Whisperer so he better get to work.

[Jason3123]

Part of what is wrong with Winston is mechanical, but his greatest flaw is between the ears...always has been and always will be and Arians will not help in that regard one iota. TB was a top offense last year for fantasy and that was with a journeyman outplaying Winston for much of the year. Can Winston put up good numbers this year? Absolutely, but it will not be because of him, it will be in spite of him. Think Bortles while he was putting up great fantasy numbers. Also, the idea that Arians is a QB whisperer is false. His real track record is far from his supposed legend.

Yeah I disagree on this. Jameis has never been as bad as Bortles. Jameis’s issues have been turnovers. He got off to a bad start last season but was very good in 2017 and was also pretty good after he got his job back. Fitzpatrick outplayed him for about 4 games, not the season. Jameis had a 13-4 TD:INT ratio after coming back and a career high completion % and maintained a 7.9 YPA. His best days are ahead of him.

Winston is a turnover machine and that will never change, IMO. TB was close to giving up on him. While Bortles is worse, Winston is never going to be a top tier QB. He is just not smart enough, on, or off the field.

It might not change but it definitely can. He’s only 24 lol. Jesus. Even if his INT% stays high, at around the 3% mark, it might not matter from a fantasy perspective. Eli Manning had rates in the 4% in the middle of his career. Roethlisberger threw 23 INT’s in his 3rd season, and then dramatically improved. Romo never had an INT rate below 3 during his first 3 years. Brett Favre owns the INT récord so who even cares. To say a QB can’t get better is just stupid though and further proof of the absurd expectations fans have on QB’s today. Everyone crowns these rookie QB’s who play well (Jameis, Baker, Mariota, Watson) or buries them (Goff), and tries to define their 15 year career after a couple seasons, and then flip flops the second they go through growing pains. It’s ridiclous. I really hope Baker doesn’t struggle in the NFL this year, fantasy owners will hate him forever.

[Bot101]

So since I may be looking at Godwin through rose colored glasses, whats his value in 2019 rookie picks?

I just turned down 1.05 straight up for him.
Pre draft I would only want N’keal Harry ahead of him , would bump Jacobs ahead of him too if he landed in KC for example

Wow thats pretty bold isnt it?

[KingsKing]

So since I may be looking at Godwin through rose colored glasses, whats his value in 2019 rookie picks?

I just turned down 1.05 straight up for him.
Pre draft I would only want N’keal Harry ahead of him , would bump Jacobs ahead of him too if he landed in KC for example

Wow thats pretty bold isnt it?

Perhaps , odds are at least 2-3 players go on to have more prolific careers than Godwin but do I feel confident enough in any of them to take that gamble? No sir , at this point without k owing landing spots I like Harry better unless he ends up in Baltimore . I’d like Jacobs more if he landed on the Chiefs but outside of that I’d stick with Godwin because I know what he is a player that put up wr 2 numbers while being the 3rd/4th option in the passing game . With the uptick in targets I think he safely hits 70/1100/6 this year

[Pullo Vision]

Yeah I disagree on this. Jameis has never been as bad as Bortles. Jameis’s issues have been turnovers. He got off to a bad start last season but was very good in 2017 and was also pretty good after he got his job back. Fitzpatrick outplayed him for about 4 games, not the season. Jameis had a 13-4 TD:INT ratio after coming back and a career high completion % and maintained a 7.9 YPA. His best days are ahead of him.

Winston is a turnover machine and that will never change, IMO. TB was close to giving up on him. While Bortles is worse, Winston is never going to be a top tier QB. He is just not smart enough, on, or off the field.

It might not change but it definitely can. He’s only 24 lol. Jesus. Even if his INT% stays high, at around the 3% mark, it might not matter from a fantasy perspective. Eli Manning had rates in the 4% in the middle of his career. Roethlisberger threw 23 INT’s in his 3rd season, and then dramatically improved. Romo never had an INT rate below 3 during his first 3 years. Brett Favre owns the INT récord so who even cares. To say a QB can’t get better is just stupid though and further proof of the absurd expectations fans have on QB’s today. Everyone crowns these rookie QB’s who play well (Jameis, Baker, Mariota, Watson) or buries them (Goff), and tries to define their 15 year career after a couple seasons, and then flip flops the second they go through growing pains. It’s ridiclous. I really hope Baker doesn’t struggle in the NFL this year, fantasy owners will hate him forever.

A-f'n-men.

[FantasyFreak]

Winston is a turnover machine and that will never change, IMO. TB was close to giving up on him. While Bortles is worse, Winston is never going to be a top tier QB. He is just not smart enough, on, or off the field.

It might not change but it definitely can. He’s only 24 lol. Jesus. Even if his INT% stays high, at around the 3% mark, it might not matter from a fantasy perspective. Eli Manning had rates in the 4% in the middle of his career. Roethlisberger threw 23 INT’s in his 3rd season, and then dramatically improved. Romo never had an INT rate below 3 during his first 3 years. Brett Favre owns the INT récord so who even cares. To say a QB can’t get better is just stupid though and further proof of the absurd expectations fans have on QB’s today. Everyone crowns these rookie QB’s who play well (Jameis, Baker, Mariota, Watson) or buries them (Goff), and tries to define their 15 year career after a couple seasons, and then flip flops the second they go through growing pains. It’s ridiclous. I really hope Baker doesn’t struggle in the NFL this year, fantasy owners will hate him forever.

A-f'n-men.

This isn't even remotely close to the same comparison, though. "FF owners will hate him forever?" That's laying it on a little thick. Baker had a better first year than Winston has ever had, and Winston is going into year 5. It's my opinion that Winston does not possess what it takes to be a top tier QB. That's my opinion on 4 years of evidence, and it doesn't make my opinion "stupid". I think he has shown poor decision making throughout his career, and I think while it may improve some, it will always be an issue. I didn't say he can't get better, but I don't think he will improve enough to become a top tier QB. The guys track record of poor decision making on and off the field is a mile long. If Winston ever becomes a top tier QB, I would be absolutely shocked. He has shown no indication that is in his range of outcomes.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Dude is an average NFL QB, imho. It doesn't really detract from the fantasy appeal of his WRs and TE. And I actually think with Arians there, that Tampa will have a good offense in 2019 and beyond. I own Goodwin in DLF Premium League, and I would not sell him for 1.05. That's absurd.

2017: 34/55 (61% rec per.) for 525 yards (15.44 yards per catch) and 1 TD
2018: 59/95 (62%) for 842 yards (14.27 ypc) and 7 TDs
My conservative projection for 2019: 74/120 (62%) for 1,110 yards (15 ypc) and 8 TDs (Arians loves bombing it deep)

That's 216 points in PPR (with 4pt TDs). Not elite #s, but mid WR2 #s in a 12 teamer, and high WR2 #s in a 16 teamer. And the guy just turned 23 in February!

Heck, I just convinced myself not to take 1.02 if it was offered to me!

[Pullo Vision]

It's my opinion that Winston does not possess what it takes to be a top tier QB. That's my opinion on 4 years of evidence, and it doesn't make my opinion "stupid". I think he has shown poor decision making throughout his career, and I think while it may improve some, it will always be an issue. I didn't say he can't get better, but I don't think he will improve enough to become a top tier QB. The guys track record of poor decision making on and off the field is a mile long. If Winston ever becomes a top tier QB, I would be absolutely shocked. He has shown no indication that is in his range of outcomes.

Top QB in fantasy or NFL? I'd disagree if the former and agree if the latter. I think Arians is a massive improvement in terms of any QB coaching Winston has gotten before. This is a critical year for him. I expect Winston to improve to a significant degree, but his bad turnovers to reappear in crucial moments of games. I think it's too early to write Winston improving, but also think that believing the opposite isn't "stupid".

[FantasyFreak]

It's my opinion that Winston does not possess what it takes to be a top tier QB. That's my opinion on 4 years of evidence, and it doesn't make my opinion "stupid". I think he has shown poor decision making throughout his career, and I think while it may improve some, it will always be an issue. I didn't say he can't get better, but I don't think he will improve enough to become a top tier QB. The guys track record of poor decision making on and off the field is a mile long. If Winston ever becomes a top tier QB, I would be absolutely shocked. He has shown no indication that is in his range of outcomes.

Top QB in fantasy or NFL? I'd disagree if the former and agree if the latter. I think Arians is a massive improvement in terms of any QB coaching Winston has gotten before. This is a critical year for him. I expect Winston to improve to a significant degree, but his bad turnovers to reappear in crucial moments of games. I think it's too early to write Winston improving, but also think that believing the opposite isn't "stupid".

Fair enough.

[esloan35]

This is a Godwin heat check post. Winston is serviceable and Godwin will be

[IBall2]

I've said it on a different post but I'll say it again on this one. I believe Godwin will be a top 15 WR this season. I sold 1.09 + James Washington a few weeks ago for Chris Godwin and I feel great about it.