Postby jetsfan5757 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:09 pm
ArrylT wrote: ↑Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:12 pm
jetsfan5757 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:05 pm
What sort of totals would indicate no regression for you?
Assuming anyone can answer that I'll take a stab.
Assuming 15-16 games played of course
4700 Yards+ & 48 TDs+ = No Regression
Mahomes cements lock as QB1
4300-4700 & 44-48 TDs = Minor Regression
Mahomes cements top 3 QB status (consensus) while likely still QB1 for many
3900-4400 & 39-43 TDs = Strong Regression
Mahomes falls to top 3-5 consideration
3500-3900 & 33-38 TDs = Majory Regression
Mahomes falls to top 6-8 consideration (consensus) with a vocal minority ranking him lower
3500- Yards & 32 or less TDs = Catastrophic Regression
Mahomes gets labeled the next Blake Bortles
Good list. In general, I agree with you when looking at yardage but not when looking at TDs
No regression, and minor regression: agreed 100%
Strong regression: Yardage wise I agree, but if he throws over 40 TDs he's still my top Dynasty QB easily.
Major regression: Again agree yardage wise, but that TD total would likely still be top 5 for the year. Even with a season like that I highly doubt he falls out of my top 5.
Catastrophic Regression:
@ Blake Bortles comp. Yardage would be disappointing for sure, 32 TDs tied for 6th last year so not exactly horrible or Bortlesesque.
Having said all that, I hope it's obvious I'm not bashing Mahomes in any way. To the contrary he's easily my dynasty QB1, but I think I have lower expectations than many people. I just don't expect a historical season every year, and there is 0% chance I buy him at current prices...
Dynasty League (25 man rosters + 2 IR, non-PPR scoring. QB/3RB/3WR/2TE/K/DB/LB/DL no flex)
QB (1): Herbert, Lawrence, Darnold
RB (3): N. Chubb, D. Henry, J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, Pollard, Singletary, L. Murray
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, B. Aiyuk, J. Smith-Schuster, R Bateman, E. Moore
TE (2): I. Smith Jr, H. Henry, Schultz, Tremble
K (1): M. Crosby
DB (1): J. Adams
LB (1): F. Warner
DL (1): D. Lawrence
PS: I often don't revisit a thread after posting. Send me a message if you ever want further thoughts on a comment I made.