Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
jetsfan5757
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby jetsfan5757 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:39 am

I can accept that a QB will need around 40 TDs to lease the league. I will not take for granted that Mahomes will be that QB.

40 is also very different from 50.

Regression is as likely as gravity this year. (aiming for funny, not an arrogant jerk.)
Dynasty League (25 man rosters + 2 IR, non-PPR scoring. QB/3RB/3WR/2TE/K/DB/LB/DL no flex)

QB (1): Brees, Winston, Darnold
RB (3): David Johnson, N. Chubb, D. Guice, D. Henry, T. Coleman, C. Thompson
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, J. Smith-Schuster, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, D. Pettis, P. Williams
TE (2): H. Henry, O.J. Howard, I. Thomas

K (1): Wil Lutz

DB (1): Landon Collins
LB (1): Luke Kuechly
DL (1): JJ Watt

PS: I often don't revisit a thread after posting. Send me a message if you ever want further thoughts on a comment I made.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby mild » Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:49 am

I'm going to enjoy bumping this thread if he just picks right up where he left off.

I think it's reasonable to expect Andy and Pat in Year 2 to have made strides in their scheme, and to have new wrinkles available thanks to his newfound familiarity with running the offense.

This thread is trendy right now because of the Tyreek investigation. That's not a "natural" regression though, innit.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby jetsfan5757 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:05 pm

mild wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:49 am
I'm going to enjoy bumping this thread if he just picks right up where he left off.

I think it's reasonable to expect Andy and Pat in Year 2 to have made strides in their scheme, and to have new wrinkles available thanks to his newfound familiarity with running the offense.

This thread is trendy right now because of the Tyreek investigation. That's not a "natural" regression though, innit.
Yes and no. They had no major injuries on offense last year, although they did lose Hunt to suspension. Health is often a reason for great performance in a league in which you have to expect some injuries.

What sort of totals would indicate no regression for you?
Dynasty League (25 man rosters + 2 IR, non-PPR scoring. QB/3RB/3WR/2TE/K/DB/LB/DL no flex)

QB (1): Brees, Winston, Darnold
RB (3): David Johnson, N. Chubb, D. Guice, D. Henry, T. Coleman, C. Thompson
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, J. Smith-Schuster, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, D. Pettis, P. Williams
TE (2): H. Henry, O.J. Howard, I. Thomas

K (1): Wil Lutz

DB (1): Landon Collins
LB (1): Luke Kuechly
DL (1): JJ Watt

PS: I often don't revisit a thread after posting. Send me a message if you ever want further thoughts on a comment I made.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby ArrylT » Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:12 pm

jetsfan5757 wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:05 pm
What sort of totals would indicate no regression for you?
Assuming anyone can answer that I'll take a stab. :)

Assuming 15-16 games played of course

4700 Yards+ & 48 TDs+ = No Regression
Mahomes cements lock as QB1

4300-4700 & 44-48 TDs = Minor Regression
Mahomes cements top 3 QB status (consensus) while likely still QB1 for many

3900-4400 & 39-43 TDs = Strong Regression
Mahomes falls to top 3-5 consideration

3500-3900 & 33-38 TDs = Majory Regression
Mahomes falls to top 6-8 consideration (consensus) with a vocal minority ranking him lower

3500- Yards & 32 or less TDs = Catastrophic Regression
Mahomes gets labeled the next Blake Bortles
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Huh » Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:17 pm

jetsfan5757 wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:05 pm
mild wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:49 am
I'm going to enjoy bumping this thread if he just picks right up where he left off.

I think it's reasonable to expect Andy and Pat in Year 2 to have made strides in their scheme, and to have new wrinkles available thanks to his newfound familiarity with running the offense.

This thread is trendy right now because of the Tyreek investigation. That's not a "natural" regression though, innit.
Yes and no. They had no major injuries on offense last year, although they did lose Hunt to suspension. Health is often a reason for great performance in a league in which you have to expect some injuries.

What sort of totals would indicate no regression for you?
Sammy missed a bunch of games to no ones surprise. I don’t know if he is going to throw fifty tds, but even if he doesn’t he is still the qb1 in all formats because of his ceiling and floor. Even his bad games last year year were qb1 weeks.
Last edited by Huh on Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby ArrylT » Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:19 pm

Huh wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:17 pm
jetsfan5757 wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:05 pm
mild wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:49 am
I'm going to enjoy bumping this thread if he just picks right up where he left off.

I think it's reasonable to expect Andy and Pat in Year 2 to have made strides in their scheme, and to have new wrinkles available thanks to his newfound familiarity with running the offense.

This thread is trendy right now because of the Tyreek investigation. That's not a "natural" regression though, innit.
Yes and no. They had no major injuries on offense last year, although they did lose Hunt to suspension. Health is often a reason for great performance in a league in which you have to expect some injuries.

What sort of totals would indicate no regression for you?
Sammy missed a bunch of games to no ones surprise.
This is where you insert a joke about the reason being is because his flat-earth belief meant he kept getting lost on the way to games ...
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..


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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:21 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:12 pm
jetsfan5757 wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:05 pm
What sort of totals would indicate no regression for you?
Assuming anyone can answer that I'll take a stab. :)

Assuming 15-16 games played of course

4700 Yards+ & 48 TDs+ = No Regression
Mahomes cements lock as QB1

4300-4700 & 44-48 TDs = Minor Regression
Mahomes cements top 3 QB status (consensus) while likely still QB1 for many

3900-4400 & 39-43 TDs = Strong Regression
Mahomes falls to top 3-5 consideration

3500-3900 & 33-38 TDs = Majory Regression
Mahomes falls to top 6-8 consideration (consensus) with a vocal minority ranking him lower

3500- Yards & 32 or less TDs = Catastrophic Regression
Mahomes gets labeled the next Blake Bortles
I generally like these breakpoints at first glance. Depends on who is better than him next year though to see where he falls in dynasty ranks. If Baker beats him, hen Baker is likely QB1... If Rodgers beats him, it's still likely Mahomes on top of dynasty ranks
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, Julio, DJM, Hollywood, Cooks, C. Davis, Preston, Parris, MVS
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson, Gaskin
WR: DJM, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, Diontae, C. Davis, Lazard, Parris, MVS, AB
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Jonnu, Thomas
2020: 1.09, 2.02, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Ice » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:24 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:16 pm
If Tyreek is in the lineup and Mahomes stays healthy, I expect 5,000 yards and 40+ TDs.
Agree. He is a fantastic and fearless player. One can tell he absolutely loves to play football which makes him so enjoyable to watch.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby jetsfan5757 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:09 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:12 pm
jetsfan5757 wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:05 pm
What sort of totals would indicate no regression for you?
Assuming anyone can answer that I'll take a stab. :)

Assuming 15-16 games played of course

4700 Yards+ & 48 TDs+ = No Regression
Mahomes cements lock as QB1

4300-4700 & 44-48 TDs = Minor Regression
Mahomes cements top 3 QB status (consensus) while likely still QB1 for many

3900-4400 & 39-43 TDs = Strong Regression
Mahomes falls to top 3-5 consideration

3500-3900 & 33-38 TDs = Majory Regression
Mahomes falls to top 6-8 consideration (consensus) with a vocal minority ranking him lower

3500- Yards & 32 or less TDs = Catastrophic Regression
Mahomes gets labeled the next Blake Bortles
Good list. In general, I agree with you when looking at yardage but not when looking at TDs

No regression, and minor regression: agreed 100%

Strong regression: Yardage wise I agree, but if he throws over 40 TDs he's still my top Dynasty QB easily.

Major regression: Again agree yardage wise, but that TD total would likely still be top 5 for the year. Even with a season like that I highly doubt he falls out of my top 5.

Catastrophic Regression: :lol: @ Blake Bortles comp. Yardage would be disappointing for sure, 32 TDs tied for 6th last year so not exactly horrible or Bortlesesque.

Having said all that, I hope it's obvious I'm not bashing Mahomes in any way. To the contrary he's easily my dynasty QB1, but I think I have lower expectations than many people. I just don't expect a historical season every year, and there is 0% chance I buy him at current prices...
Dynasty League (25 man rosters + 2 IR, non-PPR scoring. QB/3RB/3WR/2TE/K/DB/LB/DL no flex)

QB (1): Brees, Winston, Darnold
RB (3): David Johnson, N. Chubb, D. Guice, D. Henry, T. Coleman, C. Thompson
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, J. Smith-Schuster, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, D. Pettis, P. Williams
TE (2): H. Henry, O.J. Howard, I. Thomas

K (1): Wil Lutz

DB (1): Landon Collins
LB (1): Luke Kuechly
DL (1): JJ Watt

PS: I often don't revisit a thread after posting. Send me a message if you ever want further thoughts on a comment I made.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby ArrylT » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:15 pm

jetsfan5757 wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:09 pm
Good list. In general, I agree with you when looking at yardage but not when looking at TDs

No regression, and minor regression: agreed 100%

Strong regression: Yardage wise I agree, but if he throws over 40 TDs he's still my top Dynasty QB easily.

Major regression: Again agree yardage wise, but that TD total would likely still be top 5 for the year. Even with a season like that I highly doubt he falls out of my top 5.

Catastrophic Regression: :lol: @ Blake Bortles comp. Yardage would be disappointing for sure, 32 TDs tied for 6th last year so not exactly horrible or Bortlesesque.

Having said all that, I hope it's obvious I'm not bashing Mahomes in any way. To the contrary he's easily my dynasty QB1, but I think I have lower expectations than many people. I just don't expect a historical season every year, and there is 0% chance I buy him at current prices...
Appreciate your review & Jiggas. :)

I did it pretending / projecting every QB having a full season. IE if we had a full season of Wentz, Mariota, Winston, Watson etc. Then we add in Rogers (and pretend he and Brees will play 2-3 more years).

But that is why even with "strong" regression I still had Mahomes as top 3-5. If Luck & Mayfield have better numbers and Mahomes has that strong regression - hence 3-5 range.

In any case TD regression will probably be easier than Yardage regresssion. I think 4000 yards is more the norm now so yeah I'd be more concerned with sub 4000 yards than sub 40 TDs - just didnt want to make more tiers. ;)
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Phaded » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:26 pm

While I believe that Mahomes will regress from last year; I also believe that those quoting prior performances through NFL history need to reconsider doing so.

The game has changed, dramatically. The NFL has altered their rules to make it "safer" and more appealing to the casual fan. What does the casual fan want? Shootouts.

Now whether it be the rules or the quality of players (or lack of quality); you cannot compare the 50+ TD season to that of Brady or Manning. I am not trying to discount Mahomes and obviously he did it last year when nobody else did.

However, his top weapon is Tyreek Hill. As electric as he is; he would have gotten murdered on the field in the old NFL. The small speedsters have a lot of free reign and can pull off their moves with little consequence. In the old NFL, WRs like that would have gotten crushed.

Scrambling QBs also have an advantage; defenders cannot hit a quarterback the way they used to. That gives scrambling QBs like Mahomes (or Wilson, Mayfield, etc) an advantage as the rules make it easier to escape as defenders need to cautiously approach to not get a flag.

Just some things to consider when you want to compare what Mahomes did to other long-ago performances.

With that said; he is easily in my top 5. Maybe higher.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby jetsfan5757 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:20 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:15 pm
jetsfan5757 wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:09 pm
Good list. In general, I agree with you when looking at yardage but not when looking at TDs

No regression, and minor regression: agreed 100%

Strong regression: Yardage wise I agree, but if he throws over 40 TDs he's still my top Dynasty QB easily.

Major regression: Again agree yardage wise, but that TD total would likely still be top 5 for the year. Even with a season like that I highly doubt he falls out of my top 5.

Catastrophic Regression: :lol: @ Blake Bortles comp. Yardage would be disappointing for sure, 32 TDs tied for 6th last year so not exactly horrible or Bortlesesque.

Having said all that, I hope it's obvious I'm not bashing Mahomes in any way. To the contrary he's easily my dynasty QB1, but I think I have lower expectations than many people. I just don't expect a historical season every year, and there is 0% chance I buy him at current prices...
Appreciate your review & Jiggas. :)

I did it pretending / projecting every QB having a full season. IE if we had a full season of Wentz, Mariota, Winston, Watson etc. Then we add in Rogers (and pretend he and Brees will play 2-3 more years).

But that is why even with "strong" regression I still had Mahomes as top 3-5. If Luck & Mayfield have better numbers and Mahomes has that strong regression - hence 3-5 range.

In any case TD regression will probably be easier than Yardage regresssion. I think 4000 yards is more the norm now so yeah I'd be more concerned with sub 4000 yards than sub 40 TDs - just didnt want to make more tiers. ;)
:thumbup:
Dynasty League (25 man rosters + 2 IR, non-PPR scoring. QB/3RB/3WR/2TE/K/DB/LB/DL no flex)

QB (1): Brees, Winston, Darnold
RB (3): David Johnson, N. Chubb, D. Guice, D. Henry, T. Coleman, C. Thompson
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, J. Smith-Schuster, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, D. Pettis, P. Williams
TE (2): H. Henry, O.J. Howard, I. Thomas

K (1): Wil Lutz

DB (1): Landon Collins
LB (1): Luke Kuechly
DL (1): JJ Watt

PS: I often don't revisit a thread after posting. Send me a message if you ever want further thoughts on a comment I made.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Huh » Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:22 pm

I think what is being lost in all of this is that while big td seasons have happened in the past and the rules have changed a lot, no other qb did what Mahomes did last year and it wasn’t particularly close. They alll play by the same rules. Andy Reid isn’t some new age savant coach. He’s been in the league forever. He headed an offense that didn’t throw a td to a wr for an entire season once. Having reek is a luxury but he isn’t what makes Mahomes good. Hill and Kelce accounted for 22 of those 50 tds. Mahomes spreads the ball around in a breesian fashion. Hill stretches the field and opens things up but even without him, there is usually one player open at some point every play and Mahomes finds that person on a regular basis. Mahomes is the best QB in the league. That’s why he threw for fifty tds. With or without reek this offense will flow.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby jetsfan5757 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:13 pm

Huh wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:22 pm
I think what is being lost in all of this is that while big td seasons have happened in the past and the rules have changed a lot, no other qb did what Mahomes did last year and it wasn’t particularly close.
What do you mean by this? What did he do that no other QB was ever close to doing before?
Dynasty League (25 man rosters + 2 IR, non-PPR scoring. QB/3RB/3WR/2TE/K/DB/LB/DL no flex)

QB (1): Brees, Winston, Darnold
RB (3): David Johnson, N. Chubb, D. Guice, D. Henry, T. Coleman, C. Thompson
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, J. Smith-Schuster, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, D. Pettis, P. Williams
TE (2): H. Henry, O.J. Howard, I. Thomas

K (1): Wil Lutz

DB (1): Landon Collins
LB (1): Luke Kuechly
DL (1): JJ Watt

PS: I often don't revisit a thread after posting. Send me a message if you ever want further thoughts on a comment I made.


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