Patrick Mahomes: The Best QB in the NFL & for Dynasty

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
RotateThatFish
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby RotateThatFish » Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:21 am

Those numbers are reasonable and without knowing the exact figures off hand, he’d still be in the mix for QB1 next year.

Knowing KC ‘should’ address the defence this year; they could look to the offence again next year following a shake up of Hill / Williams this season and Mahomes has shown his ceiling to be notably higher than anyone else.
Team 1: 12 Team, PPR, TE Premium, Superflex. Year 2. 2019 Champ.
QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 3Flex

QB: Watson, Cousins, Minshew, Rosen, Brissett, Teddy
RB: Conner, Hunt, Ingram, White
WR: Hopkins, Julio, Hill, DJ Moore, Boyd, Chark, Miller, Dionte
TE: Jonnu, Cook
Picks: 2021: 2, 3, 4

Team 2: 12 Team, 0.5PPR, Superflex. Year 2.
QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 2Flex

QB: Mahomes, Watson, Wentz, Tannehill
RB: Conner, McKinnon, Hyde, Hines
WR: Thomas, Adams, Hill, Kupp, Ridley, Slayton
TE: Andrews, Irv. Smith
Picks: 2021: None

Team 3: 12 Team, PPR, TE Premium, 6pt TDs, +1 for 40yd TDs [All], Superflex. Year 2. 2019 Champ.
QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 2Flex

QB: Mahomes, Wilson, Stafford, Brees
RB: Ekeler, Monty, White, R.Freeman
WR: Thomas, OBJ, Fuller, Chark, Crowder, Shepard
TE: Kelce, Hooper, Schultz, Logan, MAC
Picks: 2021: 2, 3

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Jason3123
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Jason3123 » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:18 am

I think it’s more than likely he never reaches 50 TD’s again. Fully anticipate a drawback in 2019 but even a massive regression would still leave him as a top 5 QB so it’s all good.

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Valhalla
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Valhalla » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:45 am

RotateThatFish wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:21 am ...and Mahomes has shown his ceiling to be notably higher than anyone else.
Notably higher than most anyone else.

I think Mayfield is in the discussion to possibly put up the best year this year, though. Comparing the two:
Mahomes 36.25 attempts per game at a 66% completion rate with 8.8 yards per attempt, 3.125 TDs per game.
Mayfield 36 attempts per game at a 63.8% completion rate with 7.7 yards per attempt, 2 TDs per game.

Two big differences: 8.8 vs 7.7 is pretty big, and so is the touchdown rate. Those things put Mahomes over the top of everyone else.
But...consider Mayfield was throwing to Landry Callaway and Njoku as his top options and played part of the season in a limiting Jackson offense.
Mahomes was throwing to Hill Kelce and Watkins playing in an offensive system (mostly the presence of Tyreek) that helped Alex Smith look excellent downfield. Smith has a long, established career average 6.9 (probably ~6.7 without Hill) that spiked to 8 ypa with Hill and Kelce.

Now consider...that script may be entirely flipped with recent developments.

Mayfield gets Beckham, Mahomes loses Hill. That’s a very big value switch for both players, as you should expect Beckham to raise Mayfield’s Y/A and the potential loss of Hill to lower Mahomes’.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Huh » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:50 am

One trait that Mahomes and baker share is that they push it down field whenever possible. I can’t tell you how many times I thought they overthrew an open guy only to hit a different reciever 15 yards further down field. That’s something arodg does. It’s a trait that all the greats share.

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dynastyninja
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby dynastyninja » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:55 am

Mayfield strikes me as a massively overrated young QB who is good but gets a huge bump because he's only a sophomore. It seems to happen every year a rookie QB does well.

Don't tell him I said that, though. He might use my opinion as much-needed motivation.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Valhalla » Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:05 am

dynastyninja wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:55 am Mayfield strikes me as a massively overrated young QB who is good but gets a huge bump because he's only a sophomore. It seems to happen every year a rookie QB does well.

Don't tell him I said that, though. He might use my opinion as much-needed motivation.
I dunno...he had arguably the greatest statistical college season of all time following that up by arguably the greatest rookie statistical season of all time. I don’t think he’s just another hyped 2nd year qb.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:25 am

So if he regresses this year, then he bounces back the next

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dm1129
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby dm1129 » Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:23 am

If Tyreek is gone, it is significant for Mahomes. I am a huge believer in Mahomes, however Tyreek Hill was the perfect WR for him to have. There simply is no one in the league with Hill's unique abilities. Because of this, there is a synergy between Mahomes and Hill. Both are excellent alone, but together they are great. Defenses were panicked by Mahomes as the season progressed and tried almost anything to confuse him and nothing worked, so I do not see him slumping because defenses 'figured him out'. He has shown a great ability to process reads very quickly. Even on plays where a defense was able to disguise what they were doing, Mahomes' escapability and arm allowed him to still make plays. If Tyreek is gone, then Mahomes' stats next year will likely suffer. On the plus side for fantasy, Mahomes had nearly 100 fewer pass attempts than Big Ben. There is room for Mahomes to have more pass attempts while not being as exceptionally efficient with those attempts because of the possible loss of Hill. Long-term, I think he will have multiple 5k yard seasons and very possibly 50+ tds seasons. It is a new era in terms of passing rules, and Mahomes is special.

Sidenote: Baker is outstanding and further proof we are in a new era of passing in the NFL.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Valhalla » Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:39 am

dm1129 wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:23 am ...we are in a new era of passing in the NFL.
Agreed.

The QBs coming in over the last few years and into the future grew up in qb training camps, going to sports performance clinics, getting personal qb coaches, and basically are just better trained/practiced from the start than even high level guys like Rivers and Roethlisberger likely ever were. They are arriving more prepared. Also, more coaches are opening things up more than ever before.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby honcho55 » Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:46 am

Sucks, I was one of the guys banging the table saying he would not necessarily regress. But with Hunt and possibly Hill gone, it seems inevitable. He’s still my dynasty QB1 but it’s not so far separated from Watson/mayfield/Wilson/luck anymore.
main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
12 team. 2019 champ, 2020 runner up, ‘21 3rd
start 2SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT

QB: T Lawrence, K Cousins, R Wilson, Z Wilson
RB: K Walker, T Ettiene, JK Dobbins, D Gore, J Hasty, D Johnson, L Rountree
WR: JJ, AJB, A Cooper, Juju, C Kirk, J Dotson, N Westbrook-Ikhine, I McKenzie
TE. T Kelce, Pitts, Albert O, D Parham, J O’Shaunessy

1.03, 1.11, 2.02, 2.09
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RotateThatFish
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby RotateThatFish » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:09 am

Valhalla wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:45 am
RotateThatFish wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:21 am ...and Mahomes has shown his ceiling to be notably higher than anyone else.
Notably higher than most anyone else.

I think Mayfield is in the discussion to possibly put up the best year this year, though. Comparing the two:
Mahomes 36.25 attempts per game at a 66% completion rate with 8.8 yards per attempt, 3.125 TDs per game.
Mayfield 36 attempts per game at a 63.8% completion rate with 7.7 yards per attempt, 2 TDs per game.

Two big differences: 8.8 vs 7.7 is pretty big, and so is the touchdown rate. Those things put Mahomes over the top of everyone else.
But...consider Mayfield was throwing to Landry Callaway and Njoku as his top options and played part of the season in a limiting Jackson offense.
Mahomes was throwing to Hill Kelce and Watkins playing in an offensive system (mostly the presence of Tyreek) that helped Alex Smith look excellent downfield. Smith has a long, established career average 6.9 (probably ~6.7 without Hill) that spiked to 8 ypa with Hill and Kelce.

Now consider...that script may be entirely flipped with recent developments.

Mayfield gets Beckham, Mahomes loses Hill. That’s a very big value switch for both players, as you should expect Beckham to raise Mayfield’s Y/A and the potential loss of Hill to lower Mahomes’.
Great points and I agree there’s every chance Mayfield has the better year. However, his ceiling is still theoretical whereas Mahomes has shown he can throw 5000 yards and 50 TDs. He may not do it again, particularly with the issues in his supporting cast, but it might be possible in the future.
Team 1: 12 Team, PPR, TE Premium, Superflex. Year 2. 2019 Champ.
QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 3Flex

QB: Watson, Cousins, Minshew, Rosen, Brissett, Teddy
RB: Conner, Hunt, Ingram, White
WR: Hopkins, Julio, Hill, DJ Moore, Boyd, Chark, Miller, Dionte
TE: Jonnu, Cook
Picks: 2021: 2, 3, 4

Team 2: 12 Team, 0.5PPR, Superflex. Year 2.
QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 2Flex

QB: Mahomes, Watson, Wentz, Tannehill
RB: Conner, McKinnon, Hyde, Hines
WR: Thomas, Adams, Hill, Kupp, Ridley, Slayton
TE: Andrews, Irv. Smith
Picks: 2021: None

Team 3: 12 Team, PPR, TE Premium, 6pt TDs, +1 for 40yd TDs [All], Superflex. Year 2. 2019 Champ.
QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 2Flex

QB: Mahomes, Wilson, Stafford, Brees
RB: Ekeler, Monty, White, R.Freeman
WR: Thomas, OBJ, Fuller, Chark, Crowder, Shepard
TE: Kelce, Hooper, Schultz, Logan, MAC
Picks: 2021: 2, 3

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Jigga94 » Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:55 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:25 am So if he regresses this year, then he bounces back the next
This. I wouldn't say he hits 5000 and 50 every year, no way... but to say he never his 1st full year numbers EVER again is a bit naive

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Ice » Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:10 pm

dynastyninja wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:55 am Mayfield strikes me as a massively overrated young QB who is good but gets a huge bump because he's only a sophomore. It seems to happen every year a rookie QB does well.

Don't tell him I said that, though. He might use my opinion as much-needed motivation.
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Forza_Azzurri
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:24 pm

It’ll be interesting to see what the Chiefs do in the draft ... if they add a Hollywood or Paris Campbell as a poor-man’s Hill, then I don’t think Mahomes’ drop off will be that significant.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Valhalla » Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:35 pm

Forza_Azzurri wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:24 pm It’ll be interesting to see what the Chiefs do in the draft ... if they add a Hollywood or Paris Campbell as a poor-man’s Hill, then I don’t think Mahomes’ drop off will be that significant.
That’s a good point. We can’t expect anyone to do what Hill did, but they could easily add a Brandin Cooks type athlete to their team (Campbell) if Hill is gone.

Not saying Campbell is Cooks. College production matters. They are similar in their measurable athletics, though, from the precursory looks I’ve taken.


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