Damien Williams - convince me

[Space Cowboy]

I'm not saying your posts are invalid. I'm just pointing out the flaws...because you are painting Hyde as a "below replacement level" player, and I don't agree with that.

Not gonna go reading the whole debate but Hyde is for sure below replacement level. He slowed down at the end in SF and showed nothing in CLE and JAX.

[Elroypedro]

I'm not saying your posts are invalid. I'm just pointing out the flaws...because you are painting Hyde as a "below replacement level" player, and I don't agree with that.

I understand the limitations of statistics. But all of them are putting him at the bottom end of 2nd string top end of 3rd strong level, both regardless of context, and fixed for context.

DVOA and DYAR have him ranked in the 60s and 70s for RBs. He was getting majorly outperformed by the likes of 2nd and 3rd backs like Breida, Yeldon, Duke. His pass catching was bad for a backup. His pass blocking was bad for a practice squad back.

I mean, where would you say Yeldon and Breida and Duke are ranked in the league as overall backs? 30-40th? And they majorly outperformed Hyde side by side. I dunno, let’s see:

Barkley
Gurley
Elliott
Kamara
McCaffrey
Gordon
Bell
D Johnson
Mixon
Conner
- 10
Chubb
Cook
Michel
Fournette
Jones
Freeman
Lindsay
D Williams
Hunt
Mack
- 20
Carson
K Johnson
Henry
Guice
Cohen
McKinnon
Miller
Ingram
Howard
White
- 30
Coleman
Drake
McCoy
Breida
Penny
R Freeman
Anderson
McGuire
Yeldon
Ajayi
- 40
Dixon
Edwards
Lewis
Hines
Burkhead
Duke
Murray
Ekeler
Adams
Smith
- 50
Foreman
Crowell
Thompson
Jones
Barber
Martin
Ware
Ballage
Peterson
Samuels
- 6
Jackson
Davis
....
I’m getting tired, and there’s even more backs to go before Hyde. That’s 62 backs listed. I think he is around the 65-70th best back in the league, as DVOA and DYAR conveniently state as well, and they do put him at well below average replacement player level, adjusted for defense. Even if you wanted to bump him up some above the 60 line, that = a low end 2nd stringer on the worst backfield in the league. Some teams have 3 backs better than him on their roster right now. Almost all have 2 backs on their roster better than him. None have less than 1.

Edit: we are also going to add probably 8+- Rookie backs to this list better than him in about a month, which just firmly moves Hyde down into the middle of the pack 3rd string group. I strongly believe one of those rookies will end up on KC and be ahead of Hyde on the depth chart, if not right away then before very long at all.

[ninotoreS]

With Houston released and Ford traded, it is practically guaranteed KC is targeting multiple pass-rushers from this class (which appears to be rich in them) on Days 1 and 2.

[UATahoe]

Lord, let them stay bad on defense. I am good with the shootouts. Lol. But totally agree. Seems they will be all in on defense for this draft.

[Huh]

Lord, let them stay bad on defense. I am good with the shootouts. Lol. But totally agree. Seems they will be all in on defense for this draft.

They need defensive and offensive line, linebacker, cornerback, wr, and te help. And multiples at some of those spots. Rb has to be so far down their priority list. Remember, rbs don’t matter in real football.

[Elroypedro]

Lord, let them stay bad on defense. I am good with the shootouts. Lol. But totally agree. Seems they will be all in on defense for this draft.

They need defensive and offensive line, linebacker, cornerback, wr, and te help. And multiples at some of those spots. Rb has to be so far down their priority list. Remember, rbs don’t matter in real football.

At the same time they probably get a 2nd or 3rd back for Dee Ford to SF, which gives them another high pick, and they should address their RB future in this draft or next.

Their goal should be to find a rookie back this year or next to have as their RB1 starting in 2020-2021 for several years in a rookie contract while they need to tighten their checkbooks to pay big bucks for Mahomes and Hill.

So while I think that needs to be the goal in the top 4/5rounds in this draft or next, beyond that it’s a total
Guessing game what they’ll actually do come draft time re RBs

[Orenthal Shames]

Elroy out here posting like he's getting paid per word. Lord.

[Huh]

I call this a big win for Damien and his outlook. Bell, Ingram, and Coleman all go elsewhere and the chiefs wouldn’t have had to pony up that much more for the latter two. Maybe they didn’t want to get into longer term contracts with extensions to hill and Mahomes looming. Now just have to dodge three or four backs in the draft and it’s off to the races. Williams is going to catch balls this year even with Hyde getting his touches.

[thebeast]

I know of your propensity to take things personal. I'm not attempting to create a straw man here and I am not attempting to get into some pissing match that gets into personal attacks on post quality and the like.

I very much appreciate the time that you take to post the selected stats that you share. Seriously, it is impressive. I will simply add that the players that surround the player (Hyde) that you are looking into, have a fairly significant impact on these statistics. The drops, the low ypr, each are directly related to the lack of other legit / consistent receiving options and of the passer himself, as well as a result of player personnel at the line, all along with play calling tendencies of the offensive system, AND the players health itself. So, to be short and to the point, the stats can SEEM like they make an argument, but, the reality of it is, if you understand the origin and the variables associated with any statistical collection, you then have an idea of the statistics credibility.

In this case, it looks nice but it means less than I think you think it does.

I am not taking things personally. It just gets annoying to be constantly trolled here by low effort posters who lash out at facts they don’t like.

As has been posted previously, comparing Hyde to every other back he has shared time with the last 2 years shows Hyde is deficient in each measurable statistical category compared to those playing in the same scheme behind the same players at the same time. Beyond that, defense adjusted metrics show him to be below backup level as a runner the last two years statistically, ranking in the 60s and 70s in terms of DVOA and DYAR. And the pass catching and blocking numbers suggest he is even below below backup level in those areas.

These on field stats are not twisted, and back the reality we have seen off the field as well: released by 49ers, signed by Browns, made backup after 5 games, traded after 1 more to Jax, cut by Jax at end of season, signed for significantly worse contract than 2nd/3rd string level player Mike Davis 1 day apart.

You got backlash due to your opinion, not due to facts. Your argument now seems to center around making Hyde look bad to make Williams look good. It seems very important to you that Williams be viewed as the potential bellcow in KC, honestly it makes no difference to me, I don't own Hyde or Williams in any league nor am I looking to acquire either. For some reason KC management saw Hyde as a priority signing, we will all have to wait and see how this shakes out, but to view his signing as having no impact to Williams already risky situation is clearly not an objective position.

[Elroypedro]

Just complete speculation, but with Ware/West not seeing any interest yet in free agency, could the Chiefs just bring one of them back for a contract similar to Hyde's or cheaper?

It would make a lot of sense. Would make their backfield this year: Damien Williams, Carlos Hyde, Spencer Ware/Charcandrick West, Darrel Williams. Excellent for the combined price of 1/2 a Le'Veon. Then spend all of their draft capital this year on their major holes on D(which have gotten bigger during this week of FA). Then use one of their 2 2nd round picks next year on their RB of the future.

Does anybody have any news or idea about the possibility of one of Ware/West resigning?

[Jfever]

I havent heard any news on that front yet. I was assuming they'd try to keep at least one of Ware or West as they'd be affordable and are familiar with system. Either way, I'm thinking this KC backfield has the look of a full blown rbbc / hot hand thing. Nothing I'd be interested in pursuing in any of my leagues.

[ArrylT]

I havent heard any news on that front yet. I was assuming they'd try to keep at least one of Ware or West as they'd be affordable and are familiar with system. Either way, I'm thinking this KC backfield has the look of a full blown rbbc / hot hand thing. Nothing I'd be interested in pursuing in any of my leagues.

Good to hear - because from what I have seen he is priced too cheaply in DLF HOF for you to buy.

[Factory of Sadness]

To put Elroy's statistical strategic bombing campaign into perspective, it was launched in response to the 'argument' laid out below.
Carlos Hyde, who has been moved on from the 49ers, the Browns and the Jaguars recently and has looked like crap whilst doing so used to be effective out of shotgun. The Chiefs will run a lot of shotgun. Hyde will clearly excel. This was proved with a statistic...

None of us can be sure about Hyde because the player he used to be was certainly good enough to give Williams owners cause for concern. There exists the possibility that he has been banged up and may return to form. As a sad tragic who has seen - if not logged or noted - all of Hyde's runs and targets over the last couple of years, I'll just pass on my subjective perception, which is that he looks done.

[Phaded]

Good lord - can this community stop using YPC as an argument in favour of players who do not even hit triple digit carries?
It is no secret that you should have a higher YPC with lesser carries and that it lowers when you get more carries, generally.

It rarely works out when they get a larger workload.

[Huh]

Good lord - can this community stop using YPC as an argument in favour of players who do not even hit triple digit carries?
It is no secret that you should have a higher YPC with lesser carries and that it lowers when you get more carries, generally.

It rarely works out when they get a larger workload.

I’m a Damien truther but I agree. Ypc should not even be mentioned when talking about a rb. It should be the chiefs ran for 5.2 yards per carry, not Williams ran for 5.2 yards per carry.