2019 Rookie RB Review By dlf_mikeh / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

[AussieMate]

Argh man, I wanted you to like Sanders but also didn't want you to mention him, he's been the one guy I've liked that hadn't really been talked about. Oh well, thanks for all the effort, love it when people do this for others.

[robbie80robbie]

This post is very well done, great work! I looked back at previous posts MEuRaH made (just doing due diligence) and its apparent that I don't pay attention to the name of who posts what but a lot of opinions that I formulated started with things that he has said in the past (i ofcourse do my own research for the final answer) but to answer the question on the reliability aspect, its the truth, hes pretty accurate. I don't post a lot of opinions on here, but i read everyone elses. I would feel comfortable knowing that what he posts is his true opinion and not just a smoke screen.

[KLIPKLIP]

I looked back at previous posts MEuRaH made (just doing due diligence) and its apparent that I don't pay attention to the name of who posts what but a lot of opinions that I formulated started with things that he has said in the past (i ofcourse do my own research for the final answer) but to answer the question on the reliability aspect, its the truth, hes pretty accurate. I don't post a lot of opinions on here, but i read everyone elses. I would feel comfortable knowing that what he posts is his true opinion and not just a smoke screen.

lol this is seriously funny. i literally just spent an hour doing this. i lurk all the time and read what people have to say and rarely do i find someone to be right or accurate in their assessments even half the time. he called wilkins better than ronald jones and just as good as penny last year. ???? everyone pounced on that and he defended his assessment and sure enough, wilkins was better than jones and basically as good as penny. that's pretty freakin accurate.

ever attach links in this forum? hard to do, ill just type it out. ere's some stuff he did:

.. called barkley the top rb to own in the entire nfl, even before the nfl draft happened. he is currently 1.01 in startups.
.. said kerryon johnson would be the #2 guy in 2018. he was.
.. said chubb would have more short tern value, and sony michel more long term. that's happening so far.
.. In 2017 he called cmc the guy to own and said dalvin cook would eventually be a bust due to injury. !!?? I have no idea how you can call that.
.. he hates ronald jones, jeez. he must have spent 20 posts trying to get people to steer clear of him.
.. he said mckinnon would get hurt and pegged brieda as the guy to own when everyone else was adding morris. he even has a blurb that says "mostert is intriguing". lol what? how do you call this stuff?
.. he warned everyone to sell fournette before the season began, said his value would plummet this year....... this is unreal.
.. pegged phillip lindsay as the rb to own over royce freeman
.. when everyone on the forum was getting this murphy rb from buffalo, meurah came in and said not to do it, it's a wasted spot. he was right again.
.. over and over again he warned two things, ronald jones hatred, and the fact that mckinnon will get hurt.

i got bored so i scanned back to 2017 and beyond. he's still at it.

.. everyone clamoring over crowell. not meurah. he says the browns wanna move on from him, and gave a lengthy post as to why crowell is over rated. he seems to be the only one on that wagon, everyone else is attacking him. he was right.
.. advising everyone to sell rob kelley pre-draft. dead on.
.. telling everyone to sell ty montgomery at his high point.
.. i found his tarik cohen post. well done. that was 100% accurate. what a great read and assessment you gave on that one. there wasn't a single tarik cohen post on the forums prior to that. simply amazing.
.. wow. when ap was signed to the saints and everyone guessed it was the end for ingram, meurah said no and ingram will rebound and to sell ap. right on.
.. lotta people hating on joe mixon. not meurah, calling him the top 3 rb to own in this draft class. he is.

i finally found one where meurah is wrong. he called paul perkins the guy to own in new york. you're wrong meurah! ah-hah gocha. explain yourself. viewtopic.php?f=5&t=121094&p=1044603#p1044603

i had to go back 3 years to find one where you were wrong. lol. are you a writer for dlf? you should be.

[ebsteelers]

no opinion on harris from bama?

[ravn88]

I looked back at previous posts MEuRaH made (just doing due diligence) and its apparent that I don't pay attention to the name of who posts what but a lot of opinions that I formulated started with things that he has said in the past (i ofcourse do my own research for the final answer) but to answer the question on the reliability aspect, its the truth, hes pretty accurate. I don't post a lot of opinions on here, but i read everyone elses. I would feel comfortable knowing that what he posts is his true opinion and not just a smoke screen.

lol this is seriously funny. i literally just spent an hour doing this. i lurk all the time and read what people have to say and rarely do i find someone to be right or accurate in their assessments even half the time. he called wilkins better than ronald jones and just as good as penny last year. ???? everyone pounced on that and he defended his assessment and sure enough, wilkins was better than jones and basically as good as penny. that's pretty freakin accurate.

ever attach links in this forum? hard to do, ill just type it out. ere's some stuff he did:

.. called barkley the top rb to own in the entire nfl, even before the nfl draft happened. he is currently 1.01 in startups.
.. said kerryon johnson would be the #2 guy in 2018. he was.
.. said chubb would have more short tern value, and sony michel more long term. that's happening so far.
.. In 2017 he called cmc the guy to own and said dalvin cook would eventually be a bust due to injury. !!?? I have no idea how you can call that.
.. he hates ronald jones, jeez. he must have spent 20 posts trying to get people to steer clear of him.
.. he said mckinnon would get hurt and pegged brieda as the guy to own when everyone else was adding morris. he even has a blurb that says "mostert is intriguing". lol what? how do you call this stuff?
.. he warned everyone to sell fournette before the season began, said his value would plummet this year....... this is unreal.
.. pegged phillip lindsay as the rb to own over royce freeman
.. when everyone on the forum was getting this murphy rb from buffalo, meurah came in and said not to do it, it's a wasted spot. he was right again.
.. over and over again he warned two things, ronald jones hatred, and the fact that mckinnon will get hurt.

i got bored so i scanned back to 2017 and beyond. he's still at it.

.. everyone clamoring over crowell. not meurah. he says the browns wanna move on from him, and gave a lengthy post as to why crowell is over rated. he seems to be the only one on that wagon, everyone else is attacking him. he was right.
.. advising everyone to sell rob kelley pre-draft. dead on.
.. telling everyone to sell ty montgomery at his high point.
.. i found his tarik cohen post. well done. that was 100% accurate. what a great read and assessment you gave on that one. there wasn't a single tarik cohen post on the forums prior to that. simply amazing.
.. wow. when ap was signed to the saints and everyone guessed it was the end for ingram, meurah said no and ingram will rebound and to sell ap. right on.
.. lotta people hating on joe mixon. not meurah, calling him the top 3 rb to own in this draft class. he is.

i finally found one where meurah is wrong. he called paul perkins the guy to own in new york. you're wrong meurah! ah-hah gocha. explain yourself. viewtopic.php?f=5&t=121094&p=1044603#p1044603

i had to go back 3 years to find one where you were wrong. lol. are you a writer for dlf? you should be.

Thats impressive..

[Prison_Mike]

Appreciate the info here!

I too have been on the Sanders/Holyfield train for a while but couldn't put such an in-depth analysis to it
They just pass the eye test for me lol (more so than the other backs in this class)

Hoping for some juicy landing spots, although I don't see many as of now

[IBall2]

"David Montgomery is the most overrated RB in the last 5 years". Ronald Jones would like to have a word with you.

Also on a separate note:

PLANT YOUR FLAG!!! Holyfield > Jacobs

I'd like to reiterate my statement from a month ago.

[Ice]

Excellent write up. I do like how you put the RB with the Scheme.

I personally rank Jacobs at the top but agree Sanders has a ton of skill. He is going to have to learn the passing game at the next level but should be able to pretty easily. His location matters.

Really liked the David Montgomery write up. I always appreciate when someone speaks their mind. I remember telling everyone who would listen T. Richardson would be a bust and took him off my board. You may get some push back for not liking him but he is not on my board either.

The one we disagree on and a player I think is worth a bold pick on in your group is Rodney Anderson. He is very smooth and has shown outstanding field awareness in the passing game. Love his vision and ability to follow blocks. Like his pad level and gear changes when needed. Major Red flags for injuries but his game sure looks to translate in the modern day RB passing game. He reminds me of Arian Foster quite a bit on tape. Has patience with a subtle burst which works in Zone schemes and really translates in routes out of the backfield. Exceptional running to his left but doesn't lose much when running to his right.

Like his fit for teams like the Texans or KC as an example. Probably a late round pick in the NFL so could be had late 2nd or early 3rd but i have a late 1st round fantasy grade on him with upside ability.

[CooperCrush]

Very detailed and great post! I really appreciate the time it took to put this together, and for sharing with us!

[hockeyBjj]

Awesome! Thank you M!

[briank]

I might as well put my money where my mouth is. I've been outspoken several times here before, but I've never given my RB analysis until AFTER the draft because owners in my league would otherwise steal my players. Well, I've decided that I'm just going to deal with that this year, and give you my 2019 review right now.

For those that don't know me, I am a former RB coach. I coached the position at the HS level for 5 years, and travelled all over New England to coaching clinics and conferences to learn from the top coaches at the college level, as well as a few former NFL scouts. I know what to look for and what makes a RB a possible top talent in the NFL. I've been nailing RB rankings over the last 3 years (literally, almost 100% percent accurate) and figured that I'd up the ante by creating my own thread, instead of replying to other posts like I used to do. FWIW, I suck at QB, TE, & WR rankings. Help a brother out.

What I usually do is research RBs in late February. I judge them based on a series of criteria, each category weighted based on the importance level that I believe they deserve based on what it takes to succeed in the NFL. Then I ignore those rankings and do it again sometime in early April. I compare my values and see if I moved anyone up or down a lot in any 1 category (I rarely do) and then do one final analysis the week of the NFL draft when players start getting drafted. For example, it's incredibly important that a zone runner get drafted to a zone team. If they don't (*cough* Rashaad Penny *cough*) then I knock them down some points.

So without further ado, here are my rankings. I'm going to give 5 tiers: Must have's, Should be's, Could be's, Probably not's, and Definitely not's. The tiers aren't ranked in order. I'm not calling Holyfield better than Jacobs, for example. They are just in the same tier as of right now.

========================================================
MUST HAVE'S

Miles Sanders - He's my highest ranked RB so far and it's not even close. He's a good 20% better than any other RB I ranked in this class. He has amazing body control, is shifty, can make defenders miss (and by this, I mean make them mess when they are right next to him, which is rare), is patient with his blocks, and has great vision. What gives me some concern is that his run to catch ratio is 10-1. Ideally you'd want a back who has a 4-1 ratio because they would be able to be on the field for all 3 downs. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though, it just wasn't a positive. He's also only touched the ball around 350 times total. There's a ton of tread on those tires, so I expect him to have a long and great career. He's my 1 and only sure-thing in this draft, so far. In comparison to last year, he would have been my 2nd highest rated RB. Sanders is primarily a zone runner in college but I believe he can succeed in any scheme.

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SHOULD BE'S

Elijah Holyfield - This is the only other runner in the entire draft who can sink his hips like Sanders can, though not as well. He is a great zone RB and I also believe he can succeed in any scheme he's draft into. However, I don't think he avoids contact nearly enough, which may make him more prone to injury. He also DOESN'T CATCH THE BALL EVER, which means he might not be a reliable every-down back. He might find himself in a timeshare as a result, maybe 2-1 at best. RBs who don't catch the ball as a collegiate usually don't do so well at the next level. It'll depend how hard of a worker he is. He would be my #6 or #7 guy if he was in last years draft. He's worth a mid-to-late 1st, given the right location.

Myles Gaskin - I know. You might be thinking "WHO THE HELL IS MYLES GASKIN!?". Well lemme tell you what, this is the kind of guy you can draft in the 2nd or 3rd round and get yourself a starter almost immediately. I predicted Tarik Cohen last year and James Conner the year before that. This years late-round pick is easily Myles Gaskins. He is a zone runner with excellent vision and quickness, and I believe he can also succeed in any scheme. He also has great hands and has been utilized somewhat to catch out the backfield. HOWEVER, he's touched the ball over 1000 times already, so his career may not last as long as others, but it does speak to his ability to stay healthy. This is my favorite late-round player that I've researched over the past several years, not close. Whoever drafts him will be one lucky SOB. He isn't as good as the two guys above, but he'll be a Phillip Lindsay type player. I think he's easily worth a mid 1st right now, but you might be lucky enough to get him as late as the 3rd round!..... I do worry about his durability.

Josh Jacobs - I love his power and quickness in short space. This is a power runner with great hands out of the backfield (my highest rated in this category). He can take contact very well, but seems to initiate it a bit much for my liking. A RBs ability to stay healthy and extend their career is a big deal, so Jacobs will need to learn how to avoid contact when necessary rather than plow through guys when given the chance. He'll have greater success if he's drafted to a power-scheme, like with Baltimore, Tampa Bay, & Seattle. I'd take him in the late 1st if this happened. Otherwise, I don't really want anything to do with him.

==========================================================================

COULD BE'S

Devin Singletary - This rating is probably the one that makes me the most nervous. He's a zone runner with great hips & his ability to avoid contact, but he's also played against smaller conferences his entire career, so some of the things he's done on tape just looks better as a result. However, I said the same about David Johnson, and Devin should be given credit for performing well at his level. He doesn't catch a lot out of the backfield, which will limit his ability to stay on the field for all 3 downs. He could be good/useful in a timeshare on a zone-blocking scheme. If he goes to a power-team, he's going to be useless and I would avoid him at all costs. Otherwise, he's worth a pick in the 2nd round.

David Montgomery - I've said it before and I'll say it again; This is the most over-rated RB in the last 5 years. He isn't special. He's a power runner with great hands out of the backfield, so that's nice. He doesn't sink his hips, he runs upright, he carries the ball in the same arm no matter which side of the field he's on (so it's always in harms way, but also gives a clue that he's uncoachable). If he's draft to the Ravens and is only asked to run straight forward, yeah he's worth a 1st round pick to some people. Not me, but some people.

Darrell Henderson - I watched this beast of a RB play on a few Saturdays by accident. When he did, I thought to myself "wow, he's like a smaller Fournette". Guy has size and speed. But then watching the tape I noticed a few things; He doesn't make people miss right next to him, only in open space. He always carries the ball in 1 hand, never switching it around and keeping it away from defenders. He's really good in certain situations, but never great. I think his performance isn't being dissected enough. His stats came on big runs, but when the blocking wasn't there he wasn't able to make people miss and get the necessary 3-4 yards on crucial downs. Once again, I think we have a power runner who NEED to go to a power system or else he won't be able to produce. He's worth a late 1st to some, but really he's a mid 2nd at best, and that's if he's in the right system. This is the kind of guy who would start off the year looking like a stud (TRich), only to disappear by the end of this or next season.

==========================================================================

PROBABLY NOT'S

Benny Snell - I wanted to like this guy. I came into the tape rooting for him, and just came away unimpressed. He's a zone runner with good hips, but he doesn't yet have the quickness to make people miss consistently. With good coaching, this guy could be a really good RB in 1-2 years. He's a project pick at best, and he HAS to be picked to a zone running team. He can't catch out of the backfield... so that's bad... he's touched the ball 800 times but only 29 catches.... yikes.

==========================================================================

DEFINITELY NOT'S

Tony Pollard - He's listed as a RB and showed some great zone skills, but mostly played in the slot or out wide, a-la Nyhiem Hines. I don't know what to make of him yet. He could be good if he went to the right system, but it's too hard to tell atm. I want no part as of now.

Justice Hill, Rodney Anderson, Bryce Love, Dexter Williams - No. No to all these guys. They are zone runners without the tools necessary to be zone runners. Dexter Williams in particular I think is the worst of this group. He has no skills, just runs fast, then brags like he's the greatest to ever play the game. He's going to get a wake up call.

Trayveon Williams - The only power runner at the bottom of this list. He could be something like a Jeremy Langford. He'll show a spark and be worth a 1st rounder real quick, but then fizzle out and disappear. Worth a late flyer just for the sake of trading him later.

===============================================

And that does it for now. If you look at the history of RBs Pre-draft and then 2-3 years later, you'll notice a pattern that 1-2 guys near the top succeeded, most are still milling around, 1 guy out-performs out of nowhere, and the rest disappear. I think my rankings are similar to that. Post your feedback, I'm always up for conversation.

I'm naturally skeptical of stuff like this, so it's nice to see other people look back and point out how successful your opinions have been. Anyone can claim this or that, but I'm not going to take anything seriously without tangible results. One thing I noticed in your write up is that you seem to mostly be grading these backs by their running ability and not taking into account their ability to catch and block, which to me is a very important factor in their transition to the NFL. Is that an accurate assessment of your write up? Is this just not part of your scouting expertise? Did you take it into consideration in these ranking, but just not write about it? I'd love to hear some opinions about their ability to catch and block if you have any.

[MEuRaH]

Curious on your take of James "Boobie" Williams from WSU.

Yeah I evaluated him, actually. I have him rated kind of high BUT he has a 3-2 run/catch ratio, and a lot of his greatness happened in open space, so I'm not really sure where to place him yet. He can make people miss, no question. I like the dude's talent and would easily take him over most of the others I rated, but not sure how he will be utilized at the next level. He doesn't sink his hips to my liking to be an effective zone runner. This is a tough one so I just left him out.

Can you tell us more about your hate of Bryce Love? I sort of thought he could be an excellent dice-roll play in the 3rd-4th round, given that he'll be instantly IR eligible, cost next to nothing, and might've been the fastest guy at the position this year. He's also an excellent pass catcher, which guys like Nyheim Hines and Tarik Cohen have shown us will have a lot of value in this "new NFL". I'm all ears!

Let's start with the pass-catching part. His run/catch ratio was 10-1. Not bad, but nothing like Hines or Cohen. Not even close. He's ALL speed, something which I usually see fail at the next level because speed isn't as useful as quickness in the NFL. Chris Johnson is still the 1 and only guy who had crazy speed in college and was able to ride that to success at the next level. I avoid speed players. 99% of them fizzle out. Also, when you tear your ACL, your speed is never the same. So I'm out on him 100%.

This post is very well done, great work! I looked back at previous posts MEuRaH made (just doing due diligence) and ... hes pretty accurate.

Hey thanks for the research and validation!

i finally found one where meurah is wrong. he called paul perkins the guy to own in new york. you're wrong meurah! ah-hah gocha. explain yourself. viewtopic.php?f=5&t=121094&p=1044603#p1044603

i had to go back 3 years to find one where you were wrong. lol. are you a writer for dlf? you should be.

lol, I'm not. I don't write many articles, maybe 2 a year. I've been asked to write for another website before and turned it down. I do it for fun.

As for Perkins, if I may defend myself. That post you quoted was about the Giants RB situation as a whole, and he was the best of the bunch. Later on, I said he could be a stud or dud (LINK PROOF), and said that if the Giants don't draft a RB, this would be my pick. The Giants drafted Gallman on day 2, which made me soften my stance on Perkins.

no opinion on harris from bama?

THANK YOU! I forgot Harris. I'll add him to the list.

"David Montgomery is the most overrated RB in the last 5 years". Ronald Jones would like to have a word with you.

In order to be overrated, you gotta be highly rated to begin with. RJ3 wasn't even a top 5 for most people. Montgomery is currently most people's #1 rated RB.

The one we disagree on and a player I think is worth a bold pick on in your group is Rodney Anderson. He is very smooth and has shown outstanding field awareness in the passing game. Love his vision and ability to follow blocks. Like his pad level and gear changes when needed. Major Red flags for injuries but his game sure looks to translate in the modern day RB passing game. He reminds me of Arian Foster quite a bit on tape. Has patience with a subtle burst which works in Zone schemes and really translates in routes out of the backfield. Exceptional running to his left but doesn't lose much when running to his right.

I like what Rodney can do in the open field, but when you look at any impressive run he had, it's always some crazy 40-50 yard run where the blocking opened up a huge hole. He was able to juke/maneuver players in the secondary, but those guys aren't the ones meant to stop the running game anyway. I look for plays vs linemen and linebackers. Rodney utilized too much speed for my liking. There's one play in particular that I remember vs Georgia that he busted open for a 50 yard gain. Rodney got through a perfectly blocked line and then juked unnecessarily, allowing a linebacker to catch up to him and almost make a play. That can coached, though.

I don't like his pad level for a zone runner. You do and that's fine. I wanna see a guy squat down when changing direction. The hips gotta sick, not shoulders. When your hips sink, you have your body weight centered around your legs and you're able to make a move on the spot. When your shoulders are low, you're ready to plow forward and maybe make a slight move left or right. So if he became a power back, he'd elevate in my rankings. He looked like a power back trying to work out of a zone system.

But like I said, this is round 1. My rankings change over time. I could see me moving this guy up.

One thing I noticed in your write up is that you seem to mostly be grading these backs by their running ability and not taking into account their ability to catch and block, which to me is a very important factor in their transition to the NFL. Is that an accurate assessment of your write up? Is this just not part of your scouting expertise? Did you take it into consideration in these ranking, but just not write about it? I'd love to hear some opinions about their ability to catch and block if you have any.

I have indeed been writing about their catching abilities. You may have missed that?

Pass blocking is CRUCIAL if a player is to remain on the field for all 3 downs coming out of college. It's usually coached into them by year 2 and beyond, so I don't emphasize it as much in my initial rankings.

[Johnny Canuck]

I just wanted to say thank you to MEuRaH.

Really appreciate all the effort that went into this, and having the cojones to post it before your own rookie draft.

I was wondering if you've looked into Alex Barnes at all?

He's a sleeper type that he popped out in JJ Zachariason's production model but that's stats based. You obviously have a strong eye for RB talent so I thought maybe there's a chance he might pop on the tape as well.

Anyways, thanks for putting this thread together and being so transparent about your process.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Think we all need to bookmark this thread and then let it die quickly and disappear into the night before anyone else sees it!

[MEuRaH]

I was wondering if you've looked into Alex Barnes at all?

I hadn't so I just gave a quick look. He's a serviceable grinder. 10:1 run:catch ratio, so not great there, but was quicker than he was faster, so that's a plus. For a big guy, he got small and found holes, and pushed through when openings happened. Not the greatest vision, as I saw him lose his blockers at times, but definitely above average. He didn't show off ever, just went about his business and made plays, which I really like.

Yeah, not bad. He didn't have that 'wow' factor to make me say 'I gotta have him', but he definitely didn't turn me away either. This is the kind of guy who could quietly take over the starting role during training camp with a few teams, and seems to be able to run both power and zone schemes. Several times in his videos I watched him stay to pass block, but when realizing nothing was there, he didn't waste time, he ran a route and turned immediately. Savvy player.

My only knock on him so far is that he didn't do anything great, but he was easily above average. I'm gonna keep this guy in my back pocket. When I do a round 2, I'll see how I feel.

EDIT: I rated him in my Henderson category, aka "Could Be".