Any Philip Lindsay Believers Out There?

[darewood11]

Never seen an ADP vary so far from actual value
His ADP is in the 40s and I'm not even able to get a high 2nd for him anywhere. People think hes that much more of a risk over chris Carson and Lamar Miller and that tier of guys? This is crazy

[Cult of Dionysus]

Totally nuts. Guy passes the eye test.

[youngsteve1505]

You've got some tough league mates. Recently got moved for Penny and 2.08 in my contract league.

[LestForce]

I don’t really understand the hate for Lindsay, particularly when people use Royce Freeman as a prime reason to avoid Lindsay. I get that Royce has the draft capital and Lindsay doesn’t, but Royce was injured and ineffective his rookie campaign, while Lindsay was a efficient and consistent RB for them. Freeman isn’t this athletic monster, and it’s not as if the team spent a 1st round pick on him. The new coaching staff doesn’t have a reason to favor Freeman any more than they do Lindsay, except for the fact that Lindsay showed he can be a good RB in the NFL.

[Pullo Vision]

I had him in two leagues last year, moved him in both. Prefer him over Miller, but I don't really like any of the RBs in that range. I'm not stampeding to get him anywhere.

[dynastyninja]

I don’t really understand the hate for Lindsay, particularly when people use Royce Freeman as a prime reason to avoid Lindsay. I get that Royce has the draft capital and Lindsay doesn’t, but Royce was injured and ineffective his rookie campaign, while Lindsay was a efficient and consistent RB for them. Freeman isn’t this athletic monster, and it’s not as if the team spent a 1st round pick on him. The new coaching staff doesn’t have a reason to favor Freeman any more than they do Lindsay, except for the fact that Lindsay showed he can be a good RB in the NFL.

The "hate" is reasonable when you consider that he's undersized, undrafted, and in an offense that is likely overinflating the production of whoever is in at RB.

I'm a fan. I think he's a very capable RB who has earned a role going forward. I also think most owners value him at a 1st and would definitely buy for a 2nd if presented with the opportunity. OPs league is an outlier.

My primary concern with him is his ability to maintain a role next offseason or the offseason after that. It's harder than you might think, regardless of what a guy looks like in the present year. You have to be a very good back to last for 3+ years. Very few do.

[LestForce]

I don’t really understand the hate for Lindsay, particularly when people use Royce Freeman as a prime reason to avoid Lindsay. I get that Royce has the draft capital and Lindsay doesn’t, but Royce was injured and ineffective his rookie campaign, while Lindsay was a efficient and consistent RB for them. Freeman isn’t this athletic monster, and it’s not as if the team spent a 1st round pick on him. The new coaching staff doesn’t have a reason to favor Freeman any more than they do Lindsay, except for the fact that Lindsay showed he can be a good RB in the NFL.

The "hate" is reasonable when you consider that he's undersized, undrafted, and in an offense that is likely overinflating the production of whoever is in at RB.

That’s such a stigma that I see used to death in the dynasty community. He’s undersized, sure, but that doesn’t mean he can’t handle a workload and continue to produce. The production at RB shouldn’t be hurt at all this year either, as Munchak is one of the best OL coaches in the NFL. Just seems like the majority of this forum is sizeist, which is pretty silly to me. Talent is talent.

[dynastyninja]

I don’t really understand the hate for Lindsay, particularly when people use Royce Freeman as a prime reason to avoid Lindsay. I get that Royce has the draft capital and Lindsay doesn’t, but Royce was injured and ineffective his rookie campaign, while Lindsay was a efficient and consistent RB for them. Freeman isn’t this athletic monster, and it’s not as if the team spent a 1st round pick on him. The new coaching staff doesn’t have a reason to favor Freeman any more than they do Lindsay, except for the fact that Lindsay showed he can be a good RB in the NFL.

The "hate" is reasonable when you consider that he's undersized, undrafted, and in an offense that is likely overinflating the production of whoever is in at RB.

That’s such a stigma that I see used to death in the dynasty community. He’s undersized, sure, but that doesn’t mean he can’t handle a workload and continue to produce. The production at RB shouldn’t be hurt at all this year either, as Munchak is one of the best OL coaches in the NFL. Just seems like the majority of this forum is sizeist, which is pretty silly to me. Talent is talent.

No, him being undersized doesn't mean that he can't handle the workload. He obviously can. It's just not ideal and is something he'll have to continue to overcome to maintain a role. 3 years from now, I'm betting Lindsay is a "remember that guy?" type of player, and not specifically because of his size. Doesn't mean he won't be valuable for one or two more seasons (1 seems more likely). He's a good guy, though, so hopefully he can have staying power.

I'd love for him to carve out a long-term role as a pass-catching back who splits carries. He's not going to be a 250 carry guy for 5 seasons.

[darewood11]

The "hate" is reasonable when you consider that he's undersized, undrafted, and in an offense that is likely overinflating the production of whoever is in at RB.

That’s such a stigma that I see used to death in the dynasty community. He’s undersized, sure, but that doesn’t mean he can’t handle a workload and continue to produce. The production at RB shouldn’t be hurt at all this year either, as Munchak is one of the best OL coaches in the NFL. Just seems like the majority of this forum is sizeist, which is pretty silly to me. Talent is talent.

No, him being undersized doesn't mean that he can't handle the workload. He obviously can. It's just not ideal and is something he'll have to continue to overcome to maintain a role. 3 years from now, I'm betting Lindsay is a "remember that guy?" type of player, and not specifically because of his size. Doesn't mean he won't be valuable for one or two more seasons (1 seems more likely). He's a good guy, though, so hopefully he can have staying power.

I'd love for him to carve out a long-term role as a pass-catching back who splits carries. He's not going to be a 250 carry guy for 5 seasons.

I believe he had like 195 carries this year and went over 1000 and 9 scores. I think 200 carries is fine.

[moishetreats]

Never seen an ADP vary so far from actual value
His ADP is in the 40s and I'm not even able to get a high 2nd for him anywhere. People think hes that much more of a risk over chris Carson and Lamar Miller and that tier of guys? This is crazy

These two aren't really the same thing. For him to have an ADP in the 40s, he needs just one owner to believe. For a trade (after he is drafted in the 40s), he needs TWO owners: the one who drafted and the one who is buying.

Similarly, a buyer in a trade rarely looks to pay peak market price for a high-end unless the buyer has VERY high confidence in future production. Whatever you think of Lindsay, that confidence can't be so high.

Indeed, were you to try to trade, say, James Conner, I think that you'd run into the same wall. His ADP is high -- top 20! -- because there will be one guy who believes in him and/or is willing to gamble on his upside. But, you won't likely get top-20 trade value for him when other top-20 players have more security even if they have a lower ceiling.

[Jigga94]

Never seen an ADP vary so far from actual value
His ADP is in the 40s and I'm not even able to get a high 2nd for him anywhere. People think hes that much more of a risk over chris Carson and Lamar Miller and that tier of guys? This is crazy

These two aren't really the same thing. For him to have an ADP in the 40s, he needs just one owner to believe. For a trade (after he is drafted in the 40s), he needs TWO owners: the one who drafted and the one who is buying.

Similarly, a buyer in a trade rarely looks to pay peak market price for a high-end unless the buyer has VERY high confidence in future production. Whatever you think of Lindsay, that confidence can't be so high.

Indeed, were you to try to trade, say, James Conner, I think that you'd run into the same wall. His ADP is high -- top 20! -- because there will be one guy who believes in him and/or is willing to gamble on his upside. But, you won't likely get top-20 trade value for him when other top-20 players have more security even if they have a lower ceiling.

Nice post. Not everyone hates Lindsay just because they don't want to spend the (rightfully so) asking price of an early to mid 1st. He's worth more to an owner probably than a buyer

[honcho55]

What’s the latest on his injury? Thought I heard it might be more serious

[Bot101]

Im totally a fan of him as a player. And if you were smart enough to grab him off the wire then my hat goes off to you. But he was a big sell to me during the season while his value was peaked.

Hes significantly undersized and unlike guys like Cohen he is undrafted. He had minimal involvement in the passing game. He's simply one of those players who produce in fantasy but have minimal trade value outside of a few windows.

The owner in my league tried trading him to me recently along with Sutton for Chubb. So like I mentioned above, if you have him then great but you won't get what you feel is fair value for what he produces in fantasy. And the severity of this wrist injury doesnt help.

[snaps06]

Official "plant my flag:" He won't be the starter in week 1.

That's why he's lacking value. Royce Freeman will surpass him and he'll be relegated to change-of-pace duties. Right now, I'd give up more for Freeman (2.1-2.5 range) than Lindsay (2.8-2.12 range).

[Elroypedro]

Here’s an interesting stat:

Royce Freeman faced 8 men in the box an absurd 36% of the time. Philip Lindsay faced 8mitb a very low 14% of the time.

If that were adjusted to be equal by better coaching and scheming how would the two backs look?