Josh Allen - Time to Believe!

[osubuckeyeman]

The Bills front office has to be happy with his year one performance. He has proven he belongs and won the locker room over both of these are big steps for a rookie. Let's all remember he is a rookie Qb with all the size and arm he will need to be successful. God gave him what the Bills can't give him now the Bills need to teach him to use what God gave him to fit the NFL scheme they want him to run.

Josh is very football intelligent and after tape review of before and after his injury seems to be a noticeable difference. The improvement during the season shows. The Bills come from the Carolina way of thinking and I'm sure they see the Cam comparisons and depending on what they want to do I can see them developing him a lot like Cam the difference is will they attempt to rein in his running early so he can develop as a healthy QB that can run but not to the point where he is open to the injury history like Cam. Pressure to win can cause front offices to make bad decisions. I think it's too late to change Cam but the Bills if they are smart and are given the time to develop Josh into a throwing QB that can run instead of a great runner that passes though not accurately would be the right course of action.

Fantasy wise how can you not be happy. I know I'm pretty happy. I took him with my last pick in a 5 round rookie draft 1QB format and not because I expected this success but because of the value at the pick and a little help from an article from this site "Props". I see him as a work in progress and not sure what his value is but it's better than the 5.5 I can guarantee you that. The hope is that he gets more accurate in time and progresses to a consistent QB1 that can run and or a tradeable asset. QB1 leagues are tough on QB values so there is also that to consider.

[tresskid84]

PFF's QB Annual for 2019 just released (one of my favorite reads!) . . . Anyway, time to post my dreaded advanced pff stats on Allen.

Per PFF's tracking, Allen had the highest % of uncatchable passes of the qualifying qbs (35) and lowest percentage of "accurate" throws (basically defined as proper placement on the ball). Separating the passes to wrs defined as open (more than a step separation), his acc% was 34th out of 35 qbs. For throws when the wr only got a step separation, he was 22nd out of 35. His acc% was below average at every depth of target (behing the LOS, 0-9 yards down field, 10-19 yards, and 20+ yards). He was 33rd out of 35 in TO worthy play%. His acc% when kept clean was 71.4%, well below the league average of 78.1%.

I know this comes off as being a hater, but Allen has such a long way to go, and it is not as simple as having poor weapons or a poor oline. I won't dispute him winning over the locker room, having tremendous upside because of his physical gifts, and his process "in the classroom" (so to speak). Those things appear to be real. Also, I actually hope I eat a lot of crow someday on Allen (I do own him a few places), but count me as very skeptical still, even with his stronger finish to the season.

[Phaded]

Those stats are not exactly surprising - everyone here has said that he will need time to develop prior to the start of the season. Those stats basically reinforce that.

Let us not forget that Allen did not play with the starters leading up to the season or in training camp, he was thrust in.

He will never be known for accuracy, but those numbers will improve once he gets some receivers, gets to put in work and develop chemistry.

Stats like uncatchable passes or accurate throws are not as black and white as they seem. If the timing is off, even on the part of the receiver - the QB is often the one who gets criticized.

[tresskid84]

Those stats are not exactly surprising - everyone here has said that he will need time to develop prior to the start of the season. Those stats basically reinforce that.

Let us not forget that Allen did not play with the starters leading up to the season or in training camp, he was thrust in.

He will never be known for accuracy, but those numbers will improve once he gets some receivers, gets to put in work and develop chemistry.

Stats like uncatchable passes or accurate throws are not as black and white as they seem. If the timing is off, even on the part of the receiver - the QB is often the one who gets criticized.

I won't disagree with this, but it is also true for every other qb in the league and is impossible to quantify from the outside of that field. Therefor, I have to judge based on the tape I watch and the information I have available to me. You could also make a similar argument in reverse in terms of his sack numbers. His sack numbers where high, which then gets pegged on his oline, but how many of those sacks was he actually responsible for by holding onto the ball too long or moving into the sack (both of which there is plenty of evidence of him doing last year).

There are obviously many more chapters to be written in his story, but I remain very skeptical and will continue to until I am given a real reason not to be.

[grandmabetty]

Cam Newton isn't a very accurate passer either and he has been one of the higher scoring fantasy QB's since joining the league. Im not sure if this has been said yet or not but I imagine many on here would share this sentiment. I DO believe that Allen has the potential to be a very good fantasy football QB. I DO NOT believe Allen will ever be a very good NFL QB.

[Jigga94]

Hey Tress, just ut of curiosity, where did Lamar Jackson rank in those categories? He gets a lot of hate for accuracy too. I view he and Allen similarly.

[tresskid84]

Hey Tress, just ut of curiosity, where did Lamar Jackson rank in those categories? He gets a lot of hate for accuracy too. I view he and Allen similarly.

They are very similar overall, performance wise

% of uncatchable passes: 34th of 35
% of accurate+ passes (basically perfectly placed balls): 22nd
% of on frame passes (basically next closest level of accuracy): 35th
open acc%: 35th
1 step sep acc%: 33rd
TO worthy%: 29th
acomp% when clean: 67% (from their studies, this is one of the most stable of the stats, year to year)
Behind LOS acc%: below ave
0-9 yards in air acc%: below ave
10-19 yards acc%: below ave
20+ yards acc%: very slightly below ave

[dizzler]

Very high on Allen here. Guy may never learn how to throw, but he'll never forget how to run and that's a formula for success in fantasy.

[tresskid84]

Very high on Allen here. Guy may never learn how to throw, but he'll never forget how to run and that's a formula for success in fantasy.

My concern is him losing his job because he never learns to throw (and injury).

[dizzler]

Very high on Allen here. Guy may never learn how to throw, but he'll never forget how to run and that's a formula for success in fantasy.

My concern is him losing his job because he never learns to throw (and injury).

I think they are a few years from drafting a QB again in an Allen doesn't work scenario. With their current QB scenario, I couldn't see Barkley or Anderson take his job over.

I look for the bills to overpay players in the off season with the 3rd highest cap space. A Qb not being one of them and they settle for a mediocre guy at back up.

[tresskid84]

Very high on Allen here. Guy may never learn how to throw, but he'll never forget how to run and that's a formula for success in fantasy.

My concern is him losing his job because he never learns to throw (and injury).

I think they are a few years from drafting a QB again in an Allen doesn't work scenario. With their current QB scenario, I couldn't see Barkley or Anderson take his job over.

I look for the bills to overpay players in the off season with the 3rd highest cap space. A Qb not being one of them and they settle for a mediocre guy at back up.

Don't underestimate the pressure to win on McDermott if the Bills offense struggles early and the losses pile up. Nathan Peterman will be brought back before you know it, lol.

[osubuckeyeman]

The one thing that impressed me about Allen during the season was seeing how he started reading the defense more and seemed much more comfortable than earlier in the season. I really did not expect to see that from him this soon. He is young and has time to develop. Year one is year one and he did more than I expected that said hope the Bills are smart and protect him with a top offensive lineman in 2019 draft. Go get a WR/TE maybe in the 2nd. Build a little in free agency be smart with their money. He has a long way to go but I think he can get there. Not sure I believed that was possible. Let's see how he does and the Bills do year two.

[James McGhee]

Get the man some OL early in the draft and maybe another in FA, scheme some spread offense, motioning WRs to create separation and throw in some more designed runs and he should be a fantasy stud going forward. He doesn't need to be hyper accurate if the offensive game plan were a bit more up to date. The talent is there. He does need to continue to grow. But he could use a little help with the situation and that's out of his control.

[FantasyFreakGuru]

Hes goin to be the GOAT. White man newton power!

[tresskid84]

https://twitter.com/BillyM_91/status/11 ... 9933905921

Interesting little video from Mike Leach at Sloan