Patrick Mahomes: The Best QB in the NFL & for Dynasty

[Jigga94]

The only 22 year olds to throw for more than 30 tds are Marino, luck, and Mahomes. The only players to thrown for fifty are Peyton (37 years old), Brady (30), and Mahomes (22). The rarified air he is in can not be understated. The notion that his trajectory is unsustainable is the wrong side of the room to be on.

Regression, regression, regression. Most of the arguments against are saying it can't be done again. By those figures, none of those guys did it twice. The only reason I'm not 100% against your side is that the NFL is changing. A lot of people could sniff 50 / 5k in the future... but that leads to more of the same point, that Mahomes value will come back to earth a bit. I love Mahomes too. Odds are against a repeat, but then again no one would be shocked if he did

[thebeast]

The only 22 year olds to throw for more than 30 tds are Marino, luck, and Mahomes. The only players to thrown for fifty are Peyton (37 years old), Brady (30), and Mahomes (22). The rarified air he is in can not be understated. The notion that his trajectory is unsustainable is the wrong side of the room to be on.

Got look at what Watson was doing last year at 21... the league catches up to guys. I know he was injured, but still even at the end of this year when he was putting up good numbers again it just wasn’t the same. Sorry man, you are deluding yourself.

Really, why would Manning fall from 55 tds to under 40? He was experienced, same team, has crazy talent... these types of seasons just don’t repeat themselves.

[kadun2]

I don't get why there's nobody saying this yet, so I just will: why are we all acting like Mahomes is at his ceiling right now? Everyone here is saying "regression"... and I just don't see it. What if it's realistic to think that with a year under his belt at his new job, he could get even better as he learns the nuances of the systems and the game?

I mean...

*deep breath*

- He just put on one of the most ridiculous displays of arm talent we've ever seen - that's not going away anytime soon.
- He retains everyone (bar Hunt) on offense from this season, and he will presumably receive 2-3 rookie/fa reinforcements of some sort.
- He just took the GOAT all the way to the hilt, and missed a tonne of throws he knows he can make... perhaps the perfect motivator to come back and play angry next season? (I know how I'd feel)
- He retains Andy goddamn Reid, the king of the regular season (for better, for worse)

Why can't he mature and get better, like so many QB's do?

If I told you to place a bet on who the first QB to break 6000 yards will be, who would be your first bet?

#Patrick6000
/performance art over

I like this take. I think he left a lot of meat on the bone this year. He may have a second year (slight) regression but he may also refine and correct to have an even better year. I do think many similar years will make up his career. No one knows the future, but you have to like his odds with that skill set.

[mild]

Are you new? ...
To believe Mahomes is going to keep up at this level or get better is, I’m sorry, completely asinine, which to your point is why nobody is saying it.

I will even reduce my side action requirements, I’m happy to take the position he won’t even hit 45 tds next year.

Yes I am relatively new, thanks for asking. Nice to meet you too!

I know you're focussed on statistical regression, and that's great. I'm almost tempted to take you up on a friendly wager on the over/under 45 too - except that, as you say, it's an easier bet to say it won't happen just by nature of everything that can go wrong in an NFL season. Perhaps if we stipulated some "games played" rules... and what odds would you give me?

I guess all I'm asking is that you close your eyes, and think in terms of him learning and getting better at his job: why can't he get even better at it, given further coaching and refinement of his considerable physical gifts?

At this point, I don't know what you think the league is going to "figure out" about him. Show me one weakness in his game. He's not relying on his legs like Watson. That's not Bill O'Brien on the sideline. It's noted offensive mind and kool-aid jug cosplayer Andy Reid. There is a big difference here, in my new and humble opinion.

[Portsmouth Spartans]

In 1 QB leagues, no brainer sell high. TD % is unsustainable and he’s oozing with sexiness... you can get legit RB / WRs for a QB... in a 1 QB league!! I get the attractiveness of having a sure thing top 5 QB, but it’s not hard to find serviceable QBs.

[Huh]

The only 22 year olds to throw for more than 30 tds are Marino, luck, and Mahomes. The only players to thrown for fifty are Peyton (37 years old), Brady (30), and Mahomes (22). The rarified air he is in can not be understated. The notion that his trajectory is unsustainable is the wrong side of the room to be on.

Got look at what Watson was doing last year at 21... the league catches up to guys. I know he was injured, but still even at the end of this year when he was putting up good numbers again it just wasn’t the same. Sorry man, you are deluding yourself.

Really, why would Manning fall from 55 tds to under 40? He was experienced, same team, has crazy talent... these types of seasons just don’t repeat themselves.

I guess I’m sort of trolling at this point. But really guys stop bringing up Watson and Mahomes in the same conversation. One is a mortal and the other is a god. Watsons streak was so transparently unsustainable that anyone that wasn’t selling high was foolish. Super high danger throw percentage, tons of dropped interceptions, unprecedented catch rates by his wrs (minus nuk, he’s got mitts), all on a low amount of attempts. This all spelled luck. I’m not saying Watson is bad, just his streak was actually unsustainable. His rushing ability will carry him if he stays on the field but his arm talent is no where near Mahomes. We all joke about the no looks, left handlers, and side arm throws but they are actually part of an arsenal. They are part of an unstoppable arm. Mahomes has the best arm I’ve ever seen in thirty some years of watching football. Better than Marino’s. Better than favres. Better than Rodgers. Once he’s a little more nuanced it going to be stupid the numbers he puts up.

[sloth8u]

This comes down to how you view filling your qb position for me. Some want the high end option, some are content with slotting in nearly any top 15-20 qb. Why sell if your the type that wants a high end guy. If your good owning the "average guys" you should cash out.

I think alot of new forum members dont realize that we have this discussion every year it seems when it comes to the hot young qb.

[thebeast]

^ you conveniently left out the point about Manning.i think Mahommes has great arm talent, but I don’t see something I haven’t seen before, I think he’s pretty similar to Ben and interestingly Ben led the league in passing yards and they have similar completion percentages.

And don’t get me wrong, I think Majommes is a great, exciting, young talent and I love watching him play and I hope he has more seasons like this past one. But based on the thoughts in this thread it is clear that he is a sell high, in 1 QBs leagues he’s just not that much more valuable than other top QBs. But if you love owning him then that has value to you and part of the game is to have fun so I don’t blame you if you don’t want to trade him.

[Jfever]

And don’t get me wrong, I think Majommes is a great, exciting, young talent and I love watching him play and I hope he has more seasons like this past one. But based on the thoughts in this thread it is clear that he is a sell high, in 1 QBs leagues he’s just not that much more valuable than other top QBs. But if you love owning him then that has value to you and part of the game is to have fun so I don’t blame you if you don’t want to trade him.


Very well said. I think you made a good point or two here. The difference between the #1 qb and say the #4, #5 or 6 qb is typically not enough to be a huge concern year in and year out. This year, Mahomes did provide a surprising bit of production to his owners. Most owners of his had to be very surprised by how this year went. He was a wild card and a sizable question mark back in August. So, I can see the alure and I get that he is exciting to watch and root for. Heck, his dad played for my Mn Twins, so, he is easy for me to root for as well. He is a nice feel good story for the NFL. But, back to scoring - the difference between the #1 rb and say the #5 or 6 is something to cause a team to win or loose - Same said for wr, same said for TE. But, in average scoring in a 1 qb league, it just isn't as big a deal from year to year. It is what it is.

Give me any top 5ish qb, and I'll build around wr, te, and then rb, & sooner or later, I'll have a winning team that is relevant and in contention for several years in a row.

[Friction]

Remember when Derek Carr was the potential QB1 for dynasty? That seems like eons ago, not that i am comparing his talents, nor his season a couple years ago to Mahomes. I also by no means think Patrick will have even close to a similar path, just crazy to think Carr was at that level in the Dynasty Community.

[Jigga94]

Remember when Derek Carr was the potential QB1 for dynasty? That seems like eons ago, not that i am comparing his talents, nor his season a couple years ago to Mahomes. I also by no means think Patrick will have even close to a similar path, just crazy to think Carr was at that level in the Dynasty Community.

Haha so many disclaimers in that post

[Huh]

Remember when Derek Carr was the potential QB1 for dynasty? That seems like eons ago, not that i am comparing his talents, nor his season a couple years ago to Mahomes. I also by no means think Patrick will have even close to a similar path, just crazy to think Carr was at that level in the Dynasty Community.

Haha so many disclaimers in that post

Card had some arm talent. I think that broken back deal got in his head. I think he plays afraid now.

[Phaded]

Remember when Derek Carr was the potential QB1 for dynasty? That seems like eons ago, not that i am comparing his talents, nor his season a couple years ago to Mahomes. I also by no means think Patrick will have even close to a similar path, just crazy to think Carr was at that level in the Dynasty Community.

It happens all the time in this community. While past success is a huge indicator of future success, this community reacts immediately to a statistical performance every single time and for every single position.

[Detroitcity]

I don't get why there's nobody saying this yet, so I just will: why are we all acting like Mahomes is at his ceiling right now? Everyone here is saying "regression"... and I just don't see it. What if it's realistic to think that with a year under his belt at his new job, he could get even better as he learns the nuances of the systems and the game?

I mean...

*deep breath*

- He just put on one of the most ridiculous displays of arm talent we've ever seen - that's not going away anytime soon.
- He retains everyone (bar Hunt) on offense from this season, and he will presumably receive 2-3 rookie/fa reinforcements of some sort.
- He just took the GOAT all the way to the hilt, and missed a tonne of throws he knows he can make... perhaps the perfect motivator to come back and play angry next season? (I know how I'd feel)
- He retains Andy goddamn Reid, the king of the regular season (for better, for worse)

Why can't he mature and get better, like so many QB's do?

If I told you to place a bet on who the first QB to break 6000 yards will be, who would be your first bet?

#Patrick6000
/performance art over

Is it "possible" he doesn't regress? Sure. Is it "probable" that he doesn't regress? No. Those are 2 completely different things. Continuing to expect Mahomes to hit 5000 yards and 50 TD's every year is like the equivalent of sleeping with a "10" when you are 18 years old and then moving forward with the belief that every other women you sleep with for the rest of your life is going to be a "10". Is that possible? Sure.. but more likely you bang the average 6, and occasionally throw in a 8, 9, or 10.

Remember when Chris Johnson ran for 2000 yards at age of 24 and people thought with another year he could do more?? Well he never topped 1300 yards the rest of his career

In 2011 Rodgers threw for 4600 yards and 45 TD's in 15 games. He had a 21 year old Randall Cobb in his 1st year and Jordy (26), Greg Jennings (28), James Jones (27) and Jermichael Finley (24). He also had Mike Mccarthy as HC who was a very stable coach at the time and ultimately coached another 7 years there. Any of this sound familiar? Rodgers has not topped the 4600 yards OR the 45 TD's, has only had 3 season above 4000 yards and 1 season at exactly 40 TD's

In addition to this, the Chiefs also scored an average of 4.4 TD's per game in 2018 as a team. The league average is closer to 2.8 and the next closest teams to them were Rams (3.6) and NO (3.6). The highest in 2017 was 3.4 and highest in 2016 was 4.1 (with 2nd being 3.4). Over the last 15 years, pretty much the only times the 4 TD/game mark has been broken is during the record breaking seasons by guys like Manning, Brees, Rodgers, and Brayd. So while it definitely possible the Chiefs continue to hum on offense going forward, odds are against them continuing to score 4.4 TD's/game

This is why people think regression is a certainty

[Patsfan86]

I’m gonna lose it on some of these takes Mahomes is a god? Really? God just got held to 0 points at home in the first half of a playoff game. Mahomes 6000 yards? This is the NFL we are talking about here, not college, he was just above 5000 this year and you expect him to get 1000 more yards? Step away from the Kool Aid please. He is mortal we saw it Sunday. He got sacked a few times and missed guys. Let’s chill on him. We will see next season.