Damien Williams - convince me

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:56 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:35 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:06 am
Huh wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:18 pm

Not that he’s the real deal, just that more signs than not say this job is falling in his lap. He’s a a better than average back and the situation is ideal. What’s not to like. He’ll be replaced for sure but the chances of a Bell or Coleman signing or of them having an opportunity to get one one of the better backs in this class are low. His little contract does guarantee he’s on the chiefs next year and that’s valuable. Don’t go crazy paying for him but if you can get him for a mid late first, go for it. It might win you a championship. He’s a lottery ticket and that’s all draft picks are. If he busts oh well, on to the next guy.
Not really. The situation is ideal, but he's an average back. With his 5.1 YPC in limited action, he brought his career YPC up to 4.0. He's played well, but he's average. Buying for a mid first seems ludicrous to me right now. Post draft/FA, if the Chiefs have done little to solidify the position, maybe.

The Chiefs have to add a RB. No way people should be paying a mid first until after that happens. To say he's a lottery ticket and that's all draft picks are is really short sighted. If Damien Williams isn't the Chiefs starting RB week 3, he's borderline worthless. A top pick in this class won't be. Corey Davis is still going for an early first after a disappointing start to his career, after 2 full years. A top draft pick and Williams are not the same at all.

How many 27 year old RB's who have never contributed before come in and provide multiple years of high level RB production? If you need RB production in season, try buying him then, IF he's starting and producing RB1 like numbers. He shouldn't be worth more than a mid first then. A mid first value is infusing his theoretical production into his current price.
I don't think this is true at all. I think there's a pretty solid chance that Williams is at least the passing down back, which is still a relevant role.

I think there's a growing feeling that three things are likely to happen:

1. The Chiefs spend relatively high draft capital on an RB.
2. The RB that they draft is actually a good RB.
3. They're going to make that RB the every-down back.

And, I just don't see that as likely. Sure, Kareem Hunt was the everydown back but that was after an injury to Spencer Ware and they had no depth behind those backs.

I think there's going to be a committee here.
I did say borderline worthless. What are people going to pay for a 27 year old committee back,(who has been career backup). who has just lost the only real draw that he's ever had (being the lead back on KC). My overall point was the value and insulation of the player picked with a mid first compared to Williams.
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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:39 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:56 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:35 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:06 am

Not really. The situation is ideal, but he's an average back. With his 5.1 YPC in limited action, he brought his career YPC up to 4.0. He's played well, but he's average. Buying for a mid first seems ludicrous to me right now. Post draft/FA, if the Chiefs have done little to solidify the position, maybe.

The Chiefs have to add a RB. No way people should be paying a mid first until after that happens. To say he's a lottery ticket and that's all draft picks are is really short sighted. If Damien Williams isn't the Chiefs starting RB week 3, he's borderline worthless. A top pick in this class won't be. Corey Davis is still going for an early first after a disappointing start to his career, after 2 full years. A top draft pick and Williams are not the same at all.

How many 27 year old RB's who have never contributed before come in and provide multiple years of high level RB production? If you need RB production in season, try buying him then, IF he's starting and producing RB1 like numbers. He shouldn't be worth more than a mid first then. A mid first value is infusing his theoretical production into his current price.
I don't think this is true at all. I think there's a pretty solid chance that Williams is at least the passing down back, which is still a relevant role.

I think there's a growing feeling that three things are likely to happen:

1. The Chiefs spend relatively high draft capital on an RB.
2. The RB that they draft is actually a good RB.
3. They're going to make that RB the every-down back.

And, I just don't see that as likely. Sure, Kareem Hunt was the everydown back but that was after an injury to Spencer Ware and they had no depth behind those backs.

I think there's going to be a committee here.
I did say borderline worthless. What are people going to pay for a 27 year old committee back,(who has been career backup). who has just lost the only real draw that he's ever had (being the lead back on KC). My overall point was the value and insulation of the player picked with a mid first compared to Williams.
If he's locked in as the passing down back, I don't see that even as borderline worthless. That's value. That's an RB2 with upside in PPR in a pass-happy offense. The only way he's borderline worthless is if KC plays one back and they draft a rookie with high capital.

If he's just the passing down back, I think that's sneaky good value. I'd pay a 2nd for that easily. If I owned him, would I sell for that? Probably not, but it wouldn't be far off.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby thebeast » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:17 am

DJB wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:22 pm If hes the starting RB in an Andy Reid offence hes headed for RB 1 numbers. Simple as that.
What's not so simple is the 'If' part.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Johnny Canuck » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:59 am

I agree with Beast that the IFs aren't simple.

IF Williams retains the feature role, IF they draft an RB early, IF they spend big on a FA...the common denominator is that they are all "IFs," and no one really knows what will happen.

That said, Damien Williams holds the largest range of outcomes for any RB this yr by far.

- He could be a late bloomer like Priest Holmes and beast in the feature role for the foreseeable future.
- He could move to a committee/pass-catching role, becoming more like Justin Forsett after his breakout yr, meh but flex worthy.
- He could be relegated to a backup role, and just rot on your bench.

No one really knows. It's all a matter of how much risk you want to hold.

I personally don't think that this draft class is very good for RBs, with the exception of two, and I don't think either of them will make it back to the Chiefs 2nd rounder. I also doubt KC trades up to take one, they have too many holes on defense to consolidate picks for an RB.

But let's say KC drafted an RB in the first three rounds, most of the talented RBs (other than the two that have a low prob of getting drafted by KC) guys are smaller than Williams. So it's likely that he will be the goal line hammer. Also Damien Williams is a better pass catcher than most, so I'm not really worried about a value crash at all from a draft standpoint.

Also, Andy Reid has shown that he will give the guy who earned it a chance over the rookie. In 2017 that was Spencer Ware's job, that's a fact. Hunt only played a heavy role early due to injury. You can argue that Hunt would of taken over eventually but that's just speculation. Either way, Williams will likely get a shot to lead at the beginning of the season and therefore have value.

Even if they draft a guy early (top three rounds), and Williams falters in a feature role, and they end up in a committee, so what. Williams is likely to be the pass catcher and goal-line back...which are the highest correlated roles for an RBs fantasy points.

Regardless of the draft, I think it's highly likely Williams will still have significant value next season, his floor is a flex play, and his ceiling is a top 7 RB for 2019.

The biggest wrench that could get thrown into the mix is FA. There are players out there that have similar skill sets that only need a good situation to flash, and/or continue their solid play. I think this just comes down to the money these FA RBs are demanding. I can't see KC wanting to pay a ton (which likely takes them out of: Bell, Coleman, Yeldon, and maybe Ingram), when they already have a cheap option that is producing at elite levels, but you never know. If someone like Mark Ingram can be brought in for cheaper than anticipated due to age, then he likely would/could steal that job away. But I just don't think KC will spend there money at RB, so it'll depend if they can get someone at a deal.

Like I said before, it's all about risk management. I personally would take the risk, fortune favors the bold, and league winner is in this guys range of possible outcomes....not many guys at this price that you can say that about.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Prison_Mike » Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:18 am

Johnny Canuck wrote: Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:59 am
Like I said before, it's all about risk management. I personally would take the risk, fortune favors the bold, and league winner is in this guys range of possible outcomes....not many guys at this price that you can say that about.
Precisely, I took Damien in the 8th round of a startup.
Was that a dart throw? Yes.
Was it stupid? Maybe.

But does ANY player on the board in the 8th round have "league winning" upside? Highly unlikely - show me one

A whiff on an 8th round pick won't screw your fantasy season - that's pretty common
But striking gold in the 8th could win you championship(s).

All that is to say - I still have no fugging idea what I'm going to do with him lololol
Team 1:
12-team | PPR | SuperFlex | 0.5-TEP
Start: 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLX/1SF
QB: Herbert, Kyler, Baker, Jimmy G, Mariota, DTR
RB: Taylor, Saquon, Javonte, Conner, C.Evans, TDP
WR: Chase, Diggs, Olave, Aiyuk, Hollywood, MT, Shaheed
TE: Engram, Woods, Kraft
'24 picks: 1st, 3rd, 4th

Team 2:
12-Team | PPR | SuperFlex | 0.5-TEP
(Start: QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLX/1SF)
QB: Mahomes, Allen, Russ
RB: Breece, JT, Swift, Javonte, Mostert
WR: Chase, Kupp, Aiyuk, Nico, Hollywood, Kirk, MT
TE: Pitts, Njoku, Woods
'24 picks: none

Team 3:
12tm PPR SuperFlex
QB: Hurts, Dak, Stafford, Z.Wilson, DTR
RB: Saquon, Swift, Achane, Kamara, Ford
WR: Jefferson, AJB, ARSB, Nico, Diontae, OBJ
TE: Goedert, Njoku, Fant, Woods
'24 picks: 4th, 4th

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:48 pm

Johnny Canuck wrote: Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:59 am - He could be a late bloomer like Priest Holmes and beast in the feature role for the foreseeable future.
You know, Priest Holmes had a very good season his second year in the league. Just saying.
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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:01 am

Alright, went back and watched all his carries since taking over. Here's my take:

Overall, he's an above average back. He has legit receiving ability. He made a few really good adjustments to balls in the air.

He has above average cutting ability, not Bell or Zeke level elite, but can get up to speed pretty quickly after changing direction and is pretty shifty in space. Against Indy, he made some really good moves with defenders packed in to make them miss. It wasn't a case of simply running through giant hole because of Mahomes and the passing weapons.

He has elite top end speed for his size.

He lacks power. He's runs more like a smaller back with quick feet that can make people miss. That said, he was able to bang in a short yardage td right into the Ravens goaline package, so he isn't fully incapable.

Despite being undrafted, he has a strong college pedigree. He had a 1200 yard/12 td season at Oklahoma as a junior on 200 touches. He ended up having off the field issues the next season and was kicked off the team, leading to him being undrafted.

My whole purpose was to say that I don't buy the narrative that he's JAG. He has talent and is the system obviously is the tide that raises all boats.

But in all honestly, I'm right there with DJM. I don't know what to do with him either, so take all the above for what it's worth :wall:
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Jigga94 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:40 am

I think everyone has brought up good points. Above average back, great situation, only RB currently on contract next year... I'm waiting until the draft and FA to see what KC does. A lot of his value depends on that

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:44 am

Jigga94 wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:40 am I think everyone has brought up good points. Above average back, great situation, only RB currently on contract next year... I'm waiting until the draft and FA to see what KC does. A lot of his value depends on that
Nearly all his value depends on that
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Prison_Mike » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:09 am

Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:01 am Alright, went back and watched all his carries since taking over. Here's my take:

Overall, he's an above average back. He has legit receiving ability. He made a few really good adjustments to balls in the air.

He has above average cutting ability, not Bell or Zeke level elite, but can get up to speed pretty quickly after changing direction and is pretty shifty in space. Against Indy, he made some really good moves with defenders packed in to make them miss. It wasn't a case of simply running through giant hole because of Mahomes and the passing weapons.

He has elite top end speed for his size.

He lacks power. He's runs more like a smaller back with quick feet that can make people miss. That said, he was able to bang in a short yardage td right into the Ravens goaline package, so he isn't fully incapable.

Despite being undrafted, he has a strong college pedigree. He had a 1200 yard/12 td season at Oklahoma as a junior on 200 touches. He ended up having off the field issues the next season and was kicked off the team, leading to him being undrafted.

My whole purpose was to say that I don't buy the narrative that he's JAG. He has talent and is the system obviously is the tide that raises all boats.

But in all honestly, I'm right there with DJM. I don't know what to do with him either, so take all the above for what it's worth :wall:
Great breakdown & I completely agree.
I've heard the narrative that he's JAG or that he's not a good player so many times but it's rarely followed by any substance that eludes to why he's not good outside of "well he wasn't the starter before" or "he's a journeyman" etc.

Never a breakdown of his traits which you outlined here.
You're right - He is somewhere between above average & good.

The question is: will that be good enough for KC?
My prediction is that they roll with him & maybe spend a late round pick on back - but the job is ultimately his going into 2019.

I have no legitimate prediction beyond that but I think it would make a lot of sense for them to grab a top RB from the 2020 class.
(but that won't matter because I intend to sell halfway through next season, assuming he's the starter lol)
Team 1:
12-team | PPR | SuperFlex | 0.5-TEP
Start: 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLX/1SF
QB: Herbert, Kyler, Baker, Jimmy G, Mariota, DTR
RB: Taylor, Saquon, Javonte, Conner, C.Evans, TDP
WR: Chase, Diggs, Olave, Aiyuk, Hollywood, MT, Shaheed
TE: Engram, Woods, Kraft
'24 picks: 1st, 3rd, 4th

Team 2:
12-Team | PPR | SuperFlex | 0.5-TEP
(Start: QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLX/1SF)
QB: Mahomes, Allen, Russ
RB: Breece, JT, Swift, Javonte, Mostert
WR: Chase, Kupp, Aiyuk, Nico, Hollywood, Kirk, MT
TE: Pitts, Njoku, Woods
'24 picks: none

Team 3:
12tm PPR SuperFlex
QB: Hurts, Dak, Stafford, Z.Wilson, DTR
RB: Saquon, Swift, Achane, Kamara, Ford
WR: Jefferson, AJB, ARSB, Nico, Diontae, OBJ
TE: Goedert, Njoku, Fant, Woods
'24 picks: 4th, 4th

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:16 am

I have said it throughout this thread, that the opinions of him vary drastically depending on whether he's owned or not. At this point, he's a JAG who's had a few good games, and is soon to be 27, IMO. He has just boosted his career YPC to 4.0 with those good games. It all depends on what you think a JAG is, I guess. To me, another competent RB could come in and produced similar numbers in that system for a few games. If the Chiefs view him as more than JAG, they will hand him the reins next year and let him be their new Kareem Hunt. I have my doubts about that, but if I did own him, I would agree he's a hold unless I could get a mid first for him, which I would GLADLY take if I could get it. I actually liked Williams coming out of college, but he never really became much of anything. There is a chance he's an RB1 next year, but I don't think that's a high probability. Too much can change. The Chiefs absolutely have to add a RV to the roster, and I have a feeling Andy Reid is going to be looking for his guy in the draft, not FA. They just can't solely depend on a 27 year old UDFA who's had a few good games as their only real option.
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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby hockeyBjj » Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:43 am

Jigga94 wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:40 am I think everyone has brought up good points. Above average back, great situation, only RB currently on contract next year... I'm waiting until the draft and FA to see what KC does. A lot of his value depends on that
Well yeah. After the draft his value will either be >> 1.01, or worth a 3rd round as a handcuff. All of his value depends on that

The question people are trying to figure out, is should I sell or buy while no one knows his value? If you sell him for a late 1st or 2nd and KC drafts a 5th round back for depth. Well you just lost out on 20+ ppg weekly for the next 2ish years. If you buy him for that late first and KC drafts a 2nd round back, well you just threw that 1st in the garbage.

However if you can figure out what to do, you can cash in or out now before the value is set in stone. Problem is, it's very hard to predict what will happen
Last edited by hockeyBjj on Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
Team 1- 10 team ppr, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flx, 1D, 1K
2022: 1-8
Finishes: 6th, 6th, 1st, 5th, 6th, 9th
QB: Lamar Jackson, Purdy
RB: Bijan, Dobbins, Achane, Charbonnet, Algier, McBride, waiver trash
WR: JSN, QJ, Addison, Dotson, Skyy Moore, Jameson Williams, Hyatt, T Dell, Boutte, Skowronek, Quez Watkins, Greg Dortch, waiver trash
TE: Hockenson, F Monroe, Juwan, Musgrave
D/K: Patriots, Vikings, Saints, Dicker

picks-
2024- 1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,5
2025 1,1,1,2,3,4,5

team 2- 12 team SF, .5PPR, .5TE boost, 1QB, 1SF, 2 RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex
2022: 8-1
Finishes: 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd :wall:
QB: Ljax, GenoD Jones, Minshew, Dobbs
RB: CMC, Stevenson, A Jones, Chubb, A Mattison, D cook, Perine, Mckinnon,
WR:Tyreek, Diggs, C Kupp, D Adams, Keenan Allen, Lockett, Gallup, A Lazard, Hodgins
TE: Kelce, LaPorta, Irv Smith,
No picks until 2026 5th rounder lol

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Prison_Mike » Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:45 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:16 am I have said it throughout this thread, that the opinions of him vary drastically depending on whether he's owned or not. At this point, he's a JAG who's had a few good games, and is soon to be 27, IMO. He has just boosted his career YPC to 4.0 with those good games. It all depends on what you think a JAG is, I guess. To me, another competent RB could come in and produced similar numbers in that system for a few games. If the Chiefs view him as more than JAG, they will hand him the reins next year and let him be their new Kareem Hunt. I have my doubts about that, but if I did own him, I would agree he's a hold unless I could get a mid first for him, which I would GLADLY take if I could get it. I actually liked Williams coming out of college, but he never really became much of anything. There is a chance he's an RB1 next year, but I don't think that's a high probability. Too much can change. The Chiefs absolutely have to add a RV to the roster, and I have a feeling Andy Reid is going to be looking for his guy in the draft, not FA. They just can't solely depend on a 27 year old UDFA who's had a few good games as their only real option.
I think we actually agree on most of what you're saying
But I don't necessarily think that the opinions vary based on who owns him.
It's pretty easy to have an unbiased opinion on a guy's talent-level.

I thought he looked good BEFORE I drafted him in the startup.
It's just that people who own him are the ones starting the conversation because if you don't, why would you care to start that conversation? (But to your point, the people starting the conversation likely have high hopes that they struck gold)

I absolutely agree with you that another competent RB could come in and produce similar numbers or compete with him for the job.
For me, this discussion is not about whether or not he is SPECIAL - I don't think he is. But I do think he's a talented back, much more than he's being given credit for by many. He falls short of special by a pretty decent margin and he's better than JAG by a smaller margin - which falls into the category of: somewhere between an above average and good NFL back IMO

The question is whether he's talented enough for KC not to look elsewhere to replace him as the starter

I also agree with you that a lot could easily change and that he's likely not the long-term answer.
I'm really only talking about next season because I think speculation regarding next season's (potential) production level can be used as a guide on what to do with him - Hold or Sell

And lastly, I agree that he's a hold unless you're getting a significant return.
Just frustrating that if you hold and you're wrong - you missed an opportunity to sell for something that is (potentially) much more valuable - but that's why fantasy football is fun lol
Team 1:
12-team | PPR | SuperFlex | 0.5-TEP
Start: 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLX/1SF
QB: Herbert, Kyler, Baker, Jimmy G, Mariota, DTR
RB: Taylor, Saquon, Javonte, Conner, C.Evans, TDP
WR: Chase, Diggs, Olave, Aiyuk, Hollywood, MT, Shaheed
TE: Engram, Woods, Kraft
'24 picks: 1st, 3rd, 4th

Team 2:
12-Team | PPR | SuperFlex | 0.5-TEP
(Start: QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLX/1SF)
QB: Mahomes, Allen, Russ
RB: Breece, JT, Swift, Javonte, Mostert
WR: Chase, Kupp, Aiyuk, Nico, Hollywood, Kirk, MT
TE: Pitts, Njoku, Woods
'24 picks: none

Team 3:
12tm PPR SuperFlex
QB: Hurts, Dak, Stafford, Z.Wilson, DTR
RB: Saquon, Swift, Achane, Kamara, Ford
WR: Jefferson, AJB, ARSB, Nico, Diontae, OBJ
TE: Goedert, Njoku, Fant, Woods
'24 picks: 4th, 4th

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Huh » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:08 am

Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:44 am
Jigga94 wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:40 am I think everyone has brought up good points. Above average back, great situation, only RB currently on contract next year... I'm waiting until the draft and FA to see what KC does. A lot of his value depends on that
Nearly all his value depends on that
And once it’s determined might be to late. I’m buying now while the world waffles. What’s his price if the job is his? It’s not a late first at that point.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:14 am

Per PFF:

"As a receiving compliment to Ajayi in 2016, Damien Williams averaged 2.47 yards per route run, second among all running backs.

This year, he led the NFL in catch rate among players with at least 20 targets, at 95.8%. Over the final four weeks, Williams racked up 179 yards after the catch. According to the Air Yards database, that ranked fourth in the NFL."

Even if you believe he's JAG as a runner, he is a very talented receiving back. That alone ought to provide him some floor even if KC brings in another high end RB.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2


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