Damien Williams - convince me

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Huh » Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:47 pm

So which one of the 200 pound backs in this class steals this job? There are like two workhorse type backs in this class. I just can’t figure out who’s stealing this job. It’s full of change of pace backs and at his core Damien is a third down back. I just can’t see him not being heavily involved next year. Avoid at your own peril.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Huh » Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:07 pm

Secondly unless the chiefs burn their first on an rb they won’t be picking until almost pick fifty. The options are getting limited. I’m talking myself more into this guy. Buy buy buy.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Orenthal Shames » Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:08 pm

Huh wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:47 pm
W which one of the 200 pound backs in this class steals this job? There are like two workhorse type backs in this class. I just can’t figure out who’s stealing this job. It’s full of change of pace backs and at his core Damien is a third down back. I just can’t see him not being heavily involved next year. Avoid at your own peril.
This is my general assessment of this rb class overall. Lots of great depth for nfl teams. Not so much for fantasy stardom.

I also can't see them going out and spending big on a FA.
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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Bot101 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:24 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:08 pm
Huh wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:47 pm
W which one of the 200 pound backs in this class steals this job? There are like two workhorse type backs in this class. I just can’t figure out who’s stealing this job. It’s full of change of pace backs and at his core Damien is a third down back. I just can’t see him not being heavily involved next year. Avoid at your own peril.
This is my general assessment of this rb class overall. Lots of great depth for nfl teams. Not so much for fantasy stardom.

I also can't see them going out and spending big on a FA.
Im assuming David Montgomery would be one. Who's the other? Please don't say Josh Jacobs. I see the hype on reddit and twitter but no way hes a workhorse.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Huh » Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:33 pm

Bot101 wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:24 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:08 pm
Huh wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:47 pm
W which one of the 200 pound backs in this class steals this job? There are like two workhorse type backs in this class. I just can’t figure out who’s stealing this job. It’s full of change of pace backs and at his core Damien is a third down back. I just can’t see him not being heavily involved next year. Avoid at your own peril.
This is my general assessment of this rb class overall. Lots of great depth for nfl teams. Not so much for fantasy stardom.

I also can't see them going out and spending big on a FA.
Im assuming David Montgomery would be one. Who's the other? Please don't say Josh Jacobs. I see the hype on reddit and twitter but no way hes a workhorse.
Bingo. That’s two I’m thinking of and they both have their own question marks.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Bot101 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:45 pm

Yeah I like Jacobs but no way he could be a bellcow. He lacks size and never did it in college. His hype is a little overblown right now. Hes more talented than Williams though. So I could see him splitting touches in the KC backfield.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby SkinZ187 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:46 pm

Somebody in this thread is trying to convince them self that Damien is the real deal.

It’s almost inevitable that his value gets crushed... just a matter of if it’s in March, or April.
Good luck

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Huh » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:18 pm

SkinZ187 wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:46 pm
Somebody in this thread is trying to convince them self that Damien is the real deal.

It’s almost inevitable that his value gets crushed... just a matter of if it’s in March, or April.
Good luck
Not that he’s the real deal, just that more signs than not say this job is falling in his lap. He’s a a better than average back and the situation is ideal. What’s not to like. He’ll be replaced for sure but the chances of a Bell or Coleman signing or of them having an opportunity to get one one of the better backs in this class are low. His little contract does guarantee he’s on the chiefs next year and that’s valuable. Don’t go crazy paying for him but if you can get him for a mid late first, go for it. It might win you a championship. He’s a lottery ticket and that’s all draft picks are. If he busts oh well, on to the next guy.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby SkinZ187 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:43 pm

Huh wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:18 pm
SkinZ187 wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:46 pm
Somebody in this thread is trying to convince them self that Damien is the real deal.

It’s almost inevitable that his value gets crushed... just a matter of if it’s in March, or April.
Good luck
Not that he’s the real deal, just that more signs than not say this job is falling in his lap. He’s a a better than average back and the situation is ideal. What’s not to like. He’ll be replaced for sure but the chances of a Bell or Coleman signing or of them having an opportunity to get one one of the better backs in this class are low. His little contract does guarantee he’s on the chiefs next year and that’s valuable. Don’t go crazy paying for him but if you can get him for a mid late first, go for it. It might win you a championship. He’s a lottery ticket and that’s all draft picks are. If he busts oh well, on to the next guy.
im sorry... i just cant agree with this narrative at all.

first off, the chiefs are most likely going into 2019 with just damien williams..... i dont believe they'll resign ware or west.

this is a team with VERY high aspirations over the next 3+ seasons. it would be foolish (imo), for them to hitch their wagon to damien, darrell williams and a 6th-7th round pick at RB.

its VERY likely that they either sign a proven vet RB, OR they draft one in the 1st-2nd-3rd-4th round (in either of these scenarios, they have now made a bigger commitment to THAT player). more importantly, under either of these scenarios, it crushes damien's "perceived value" ... at that point, he will not be get near the return he will RIGHT NOW.

when they do bring in whoever they decide on, you will be stuck holding the bag on damien...and the only possible payoff is if he is better than, and beats out, who they bring in... fwiw, im not betting on a 27 year old journeymen that the chiefs have a very small commitment to.

this is why i believe that damien is a SELL right now. in most leagues there is a fish that will probably give a 1st rounder or a young, higher upside commodity.... capitalize on it.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Huh » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:10 pm

SkinZ187 wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:43 pm
Huh wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:18 pm
SkinZ187 wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:46 pm
Somebody in this thread is trying to convince them self that Damien is the real deal.

It’s almost inevitable that his value gets crushed... just a matter of if it’s in March, or April.
Good luck
Not that he’s the real deal, just that more signs than not say this job is falling in his lap. He’s a a better than average back and the situation is ideal. What’s not to like. He’ll be replaced for sure but the chances of a Bell or Coleman signing or of them having an opportunity to get one one of the better backs in this class are low. His little contract does guarantee he’s on the chiefs next year and that’s valuable. Don’t go crazy paying for him but if you can get him for a mid late first, go for it. It might win you a championship. He’s a lottery ticket and that’s all draft picks are. If he busts oh well, on to the next guy.
im sorry... i just cant agree with this narrative at all.

first off, the chiefs are most likely going into 2019 with just damien williams..... i dont believe they'll resign ware or west.

this is a team with VERY high aspirations over the next 3+ seasons. it would be foolish (imo), for them to hitch their wagon to damien, darrell williams and a 6th-7th round pick at RB.

its VERY likely that they either sign a proven vet RB, OR they draft one in the 1st-2nd-3rd-4th round (in either of these scenarios, they have now made a bigger commitment to THAT player). more importantly, under either of these scenarios, it crushes damien's "perceived value" ... at that point, he will not be get near the return he will RIGHT NOW.

when they do bring in whoever they decide on, you will be stuck holding the bag on damien...and the only possible payoff is if he is better than, and beats out, who they bring in... fwiw, im not betting on a 27 year old journeymen that the chiefs have a very small commitment to.

this is why i believe that damien is a SELL right now. in most leagues there is a fish that will probably give a 1st rounder or a young, higher upside commodity.... capitalize on it.
I agree with much of what you’re saying. I should amend my comments to say that if you’re not a contender sell. If you are contender or close he might be the answer so I think holding or buying is not the worst idea.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:06 am

Huh wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:18 pm
SkinZ187 wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:46 pm
Somebody in this thread is trying to convince them self that Damien is the real deal.

It’s almost inevitable that his value gets crushed... just a matter of if it’s in March, or April.
Good luck
Not that he’s the real deal, just that more signs than not say this job is falling in his lap. He’s a a better than average back and the situation is ideal. What’s not to like. He’ll be replaced for sure but the chances of a Bell or Coleman signing or of them having an opportunity to get one one of the better backs in this class are low. His little contract does guarantee he’s on the chiefs next year and that’s valuable. Don’t go crazy paying for him but if you can get him for a mid late first, go for it. It might win you a championship. He’s a lottery ticket and that’s all draft picks are. If he busts oh well, on to the next guy.
Not really. The situation is ideal, but he's an average back. With his 5.1 YPC in limited action, he brought his career YPC up to 4.0. He's played well, but he's average. Buying for a mid first seems ludicrous to me right now. Post draft/FA, if the Chiefs have done little to solidify the position, maybe.

The Chiefs have to add a RB. No way people should be paying a mid first until after that happens. To say he's a lottery ticket and that's all draft picks are is really short sighted. If Damien Williams isn't the Chiefs starting RB week 3, he's borderline worthless. A top pick in this class won't be. Corey Davis is still going for an early first after a disappointing start to his career, after 2 full years. A top draft pick and Williams are not the same at all.

How many 27 year old RB's who have never contributed before come in and provide multiple years of high level RB production? If you need RB production in season, try buying him then, IF he's starting and producing RB1 like numbers. He shouldn't be worth more than a mid first then. A mid first value is infusing his theoretical production into his current price.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:21 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:10 am

Bot101 wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:45 pm
Yeah I like Jacobs but no way he could be a bellcow. He lacks size and never did it in college. His hype is a little overblown right now. Hes more talented than Williams though. So I could see him splitting touches in the KC backfield.
Chris Carson never really did it in college, either. I was beating the drum for that theory in the preseason, that didn't exactly work out. Also, Jacobs is listed at 5 ft 10, 216. That is basically Carson's size and BMI.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:15 am

Huh wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:47 pm
So which one of the 200 pound backs in this class steals this job? There are like two workhorse type backs in this class. I just can’t figure out who’s stealing this job. It’s full of change of pace backs and at his core Damien is a third down back. I just can’t see him not being heavily involved next year. Avoid at your own peril.
Damien Williams, David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, Bennie Snell, Mike Weber, Miles Sanders. That's just a few guys at about 215 or higher.

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Orenthal Shames » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:38 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:15 am
Huh wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:47 pm
So which one of the 200 pound backs in this class steals this job? There are like two workhorse type backs in this class. I just can’t figure out who’s stealing this job. It’s full of change of pace backs and at his core Damien is a third down back. I just can’t see him not being heavily involved next year. Avoid at your own peril.
Damien Williams, David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, Bennie Snell, Mike Weber, Miles Sanders. That's just a few guys at about 215 or higher.
Don't forget The Gawd Elijah Holyfield!
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19 Champion

QB: Tannehill, Brees
RB: Kamara, CMC, Sanders, Davis, Murray, Scott
WR: Julio, Hill, KA, Hamler
TE: Kelce, Kittle

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Re: Damien Williams - convince me

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:35 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:06 am
Huh wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:18 pm
SkinZ187 wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:46 pm
Somebody in this thread is trying to convince them self that Damien is the real deal.

It’s almost inevitable that his value gets crushed... just a matter of if it’s in March, or April.
Good luck
Not that he’s the real deal, just that more signs than not say this job is falling in his lap. He’s a a better than average back and the situation is ideal. What’s not to like. He’ll be replaced for sure but the chances of a Bell or Coleman signing or of them having an opportunity to get one one of the better backs in this class are low. His little contract does guarantee he’s on the chiefs next year and that’s valuable. Don’t go crazy paying for him but if you can get him for a mid late first, go for it. It might win you a championship. He’s a lottery ticket and that’s all draft picks are. If he busts oh well, on to the next guy.
Not really. The situation is ideal, but he's an average back. With his 5.1 YPC in limited action, he brought his career YPC up to 4.0. He's played well, but he's average. Buying for a mid first seems ludicrous to me right now. Post draft/FA, if the Chiefs have done little to solidify the position, maybe.

The Chiefs have to add a RB. No way people should be paying a mid first until after that happens. To say he's a lottery ticket and that's all draft picks are is really short sighted. If Damien Williams isn't the Chiefs starting RB week 3, he's borderline worthless. A top pick in this class won't be. Corey Davis is still going for an early first after a disappointing start to his career, after 2 full years. A top draft pick and Williams are not the same at all.

How many 27 year old RB's who have never contributed before come in and provide multiple years of high level RB production? If you need RB production in season, try buying him then, IF he's starting and producing RB1 like numbers. He shouldn't be worth more than a mid first then. A mid first value is infusing his theoretical production into his current price.
I don't think this is true at all. I think there's a pretty solid chance that Williams is at least the passing down back, which is still a relevant role.

I think there's a growing feeling that three things are likely to happen:

1. The Chiefs spend relatively high draft capital on an RB.
2. The RB that they draft is actually a good RB.
3. They're going to make that RB the every-down back.

And, I just don't see that as likely. Sure, Kareem Hunt was the everydown back but that was after an injury to Spencer Ware and they had no depth behind those backs.

I think there's going to be a committee here.


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