Which Freeman?
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Agreed: I'd rather have Freeman than the player that I would draft at 1.06. But, that is doesn't mean that I'd rather have Freeman than 1.06.Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:14 am Freeman is a buy for sure. The prices that I've been seeing ppl throw around are so unrealistic it is comical. Talking about paying a 2nd...good luck buying a starting RB on a good offense for a 2nd lol. He's easily worth a 1st (should be worth more imo), especially in this draft class.
In this post, I'll attempt to illustrate that Freeman is worth a 2019 first at minimum.
Let's just brake down Freeman VS the first round picks last yr (much much better draft class imo). All ADP information is pulled from https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/a ... m/all/2018.
1.01 Saquon Barkley - Rather Barkley
1.02 Royce Freeman - Rather Freeman
1.03 Sony Michel - Slight edge to Michel due to age
1.04 Kerryon Johnson - Rather KJ
1.05 Derrius Guice - Rather Guice
1.06 D.J. Moore - Rather DJM
1.07 Rashaad Penny - Rather Freeman
1.08 Ronald Jones II - Rather Freeman
1.09 Nick Chubb - Rather Chubb
1.10 Calvin Ridley - Rather Freeman
1.11 Baker Mayfield - In one QB, rather Freeman, everything else Rather Mayfield.
1.12 Courtland Sutton - Rather Freeman
*I'm speaking about current values, and obvs these are my own, pls don't try and sidetrack the entire discussion because you disagree with one or two little rankings. This is for a general sense. Feel free to make your own rankings as that would be interesting. Also I'm taking a competitive team viewpoint, obvs this changes a bit with a rebuilder.
So personally I'd take Freeman over 50% of the top 12, and if you split that into 1-6, and 7-12 portions. I'd take Freeman only over 17% of the top 6 picks, but I'd take him over 83% of the picks from 7-12.
Now you might not agree with all those assessments and that's fine, but that was also last years draft class which appears to much better than this upcoming class. This upcoming class looks to have more in common with the 2015 or 2016 class in terms of depth and overall strength. So let's compare to those just for fun.
2016
1.01 Ezekiel Elliott - Rather Zeke
1.02 Corey Coleman - Rather Freeman
1.03 Laquon Treadwell - Rather Freeman
1.04 Josh Doctson - Rather Freeman
1.05 Sterling Shepard - Rather Freeman
1.06 Derrick Henry - Tie due to current Henry hype
1.07 Michael Thomas - Rather Thomas
1.08 Kenneth Dixon - Rather Freeman
1.09 Tyler Boyd - Tie
1.10 Will Fuller - Rather Freeman due to position scarcity
1.11 CJ Prosise - Rather Freeman
1.12 Leontee Caroo - Rather Freeman
If we take out the ties, I'd rather Freeman over 80% of the top 12, and if you split that into 1-6, and 7-12 portions. I'd take Freeman over 80% of the top 6 picks, and I'd take him over 80% of the picks from 7-12.
2015
1.01 Todd Gurley - Rather Gurley
1.02 Amari Cooper - Rather Coop
1.03 Melvin Gordon - Rather Melvin
1.04 TJ Yeldon - Rather Freeman
1.05 DeVante Parker - Rather Freeman
1.06 Tevin Coleman - Rather Freeman
1.07 Ameer Abdullah - Rather Freeman
1.08 Nelson Agholor - Rather Freeman
1.09 Dorial Green-Beckham - Rather Freeman
1.10 Breshad Perriman - Rather Freeman
1.11 Jameis Winston - Rather Freeman
1.12 Marcus Mariota - Rather Freeman
For 2015, I'd rather Freeman over 75% of the top 12, and if you split that into 1-6, and 7-12 portions. I'd take Freeman over 50% of the top 6 picks, and I'd take him over 100% of the picks from 7-12.
This is a very long winded way of saying, don't overvalue you're draft picks for this upcoming draft, and I would advise any forum member to quickly sell a first if that's all it takes to obtain Freeman. That would be a steal. This draft isn't that great, or that deep. There is maybe 3 or 4 guys at most that MIGHT be difference makers, and if you don't have a top three pick, the chance that it hits, or that the player will produce more than Freeman is pretty poor.
I am fallible for sure, but it doesn't take Alan Turing to see that the hit rate of first rounders is pretty poor unless the draft class is exceptional, and everything I've read so far has said this class is far from exceptional (outside of 3-4 offensive players).
Kansas City
That would be awesome and likely the only way I recoup value. Traded for him before he got hurt for the year (2018?) And then have been holding and waiting for something positive to happen. He's pretty much just a name at this point
What injury concerns do you have for Drake, hasn't had anything major since 2014 - https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/playe ... drake/7458ericanadian wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:39 amNot sure of what they’re running under Kingsbury, but Freeman would be a solid option in Arizona. Maybe he’s behind Drake, but I’m not sure I have a huge amount of faith in Drake’s durability or even that he’s a superior option to Freeman.
It’s more just a lack of volume to date. He could be fine, but he’s never carried the load and at 6’1”, his 211 lbs is a little less than I’d like.Oblong_Ball wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:49 amWhat injury concerns do you have for Drake, hasn't had anything major since 2014 - https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/playe ... drake/7458ericanadian wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:39 amNot sure of what they’re running under Kingsbury, but Freeman would be a solid option in Arizona. Maybe he’s behind Drake, but I’m not sure I have a huge amount of faith in Drake’s durability or even that he’s a superior option to Freeman.
Drake is clearly the superior option to Devonta Freeman in 2020 and beyond, and it's not even close.
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