No such thing as a sure thing
No such thing as a sure thing
Today's events remind me that Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham battled for the dynasty 1.01 slot before the 2015 season. The main argument against Beckham was his risk compared to the "proven" Dez.
Since then, Dez hasn't averaged more than 14 PPG in a season. Odell hasn't averaged less than 18.
To be sure, everyone was right that Odell was riskier than Dez. But when we treat proven players as sure things, we're guaranteed to be wrong in our risk comparison.
Since then, Dez hasn't averaged more than 14 PPG in a season. Odell hasn't averaged less than 18.
To be sure, everyone was right that Odell was riskier than Dez. But when we treat proven players as sure things, we're guaranteed to be wrong in our risk comparison.
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- Trevormortis
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Re: No such thing as a sure thing
I traded my 2.04 during last years draft for DT because, you know, DT, at 2.04, why not... That 2.04 was Kamara...
We all know how that turned out.
We all know how that turned out.
Team 1. 12 team. 1 PPR. 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX 2017 2nd, 2018 2nd, 2019 1st, 2020 1st, 2021 2nd, 2022 1st
QB - Watson, G. Smith
RB - Henry, Ekeler, Kamara, D. Pierce, AJ Dillon, J. McLaughlin, Gainwell
WR - J. Jefferson, Diggs, AJ Brown, T. Higgins, M. Thomas, Cooks, Bateman, R. Moore, C. Tillman, J. Hyatt, D. Parker
TE - Kelce, J. Ferguson
2024 - 1,2,3,4,5
2025 - 1,2,3,4,5
Team 2. 12 team. .5 PPR. 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX 2019 1st, 2020 1st, 2021 2nd, 2023 Full rebuild mode
QB - Tua
RB - T. Spears, Z. Charbonnet, C. Hubbard, R. Rivers, D. Vaughn, J. Kelly, Chubb (IR)
WR - London, J. Downs, R. Rice, Burks, J. Jeudy, A. Pierce, C. Tillman, R. Bell, D. Parker, D. Slayton, Cooks
TE - J. Ferguson
2024 - 1,1,1,2,2,2
2025 - 1,1,2,2,5
QB - Watson, G. Smith
RB - Henry, Ekeler, Kamara, D. Pierce, AJ Dillon, J. McLaughlin, Gainwell
WR - J. Jefferson, Diggs, AJ Brown, T. Higgins, M. Thomas, Cooks, Bateman, R. Moore, C. Tillman, J. Hyatt, D. Parker
TE - Kelce, J. Ferguson
2024 - 1,2,3,4,5
2025 - 1,2,3,4,5
Team 2. 12 team. .5 PPR. 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX 2019 1st, 2020 1st, 2021 2nd, 2023 Full rebuild mode
QB - Tua
RB - T. Spears, Z. Charbonnet, C. Hubbard, R. Rivers, D. Vaughn, J. Kelly, Chubb (IR)
WR - London, J. Downs, R. Rice, Burks, J. Jeudy, A. Pierce, C. Tillman, R. Bell, D. Parker, D. Slayton, Cooks
TE - J. Ferguson
2024 - 1,1,1,2,2,2
2025 - 1,1,2,2,5
Re: No such thing as a sure thing
Jules, you live!
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Re: No such thing as a sure thing
They were also battling Julio Jones & Antonio Brown. Seems like you’re cherry picking with Dez.dlf_jules wrote: ↑Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:54 pm Today's events remind me that Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham battled for the dynasty 1.01 slot before the 2015 season. The main argument against Beckham was his risk compared to the "proven" Dez.
Since then, Dez hasn't averaged more than 14 PPG in a season. Odell hasn't averaged less than 18.
To be sure, everyone was right that Odell was riskier than Dez. But when we treat proven players as sure things, we're guaranteed to be wrong in our risk comparison.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)
QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
DB - D. James, Baker, Delpit
K - Just a stupid kicker
QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
DB - D. James, Baker, Delpit
K - Just a stupid kicker
- GridironGuerilla
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Re: No such thing as a sure thing
I really don't think this diminishes the point.ericanadian wrote: ↑Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:30 pmThey were also battling Julio Jones & Antonio Brown. Seems like you’re cherry picking with Dez.dlf_jules wrote: ↑Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:54 pm Today's events remind me that Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham battled for the dynasty 1.01 slot before the 2015 season. The main argument against Beckham was his risk compared to the "proven" Dez.
Since then, Dez hasn't averaged more than 14 PPG in a season. Odell hasn't averaged less than 18.
To be sure, everyone was right that Odell was riskier than Dez. But when we treat proven players as sure things, we're guaranteed to be wrong in our risk comparison.
"If on 4th down, the quarterback doesn't complete his pass, they will turn over the ball."
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-Booger McFarlland
Re: No such thing as a sure thing
Oh, sure. And the actual hit rate is way better than the 67% that we get from the Dez-Julio-AB cohort. My point isn't "youth > veteran." It's "Stop discounting the risk of veterans when comparing them to youngsters."ericanadian wrote: ↑Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:30 pm They were also battling Julio Jones & Antonio Brown. Seems like you’re cherry picking with Dez.
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Re: No such thing as a sure thing
I had a 2015 startup draft. Dez went 1.1, ODB went 1.2.
I took Gronk at 1.7, right after Antonio Brown & right before Leveon Bell.
I was happy to get Hopkins at 2.6.....half a round after Calvin Johnson went off the board
I took Gronk at 1.7, right after Antonio Brown & right before Leveon Bell.
I was happy to get Hopkins at 2.6.....half a round after Calvin Johnson went off the board
Re: No such thing as a sure thing
Worth putting in a signature.
Strangely high for Megatron in 2015, at age 30 and following the worst season of his career since 2009.
"I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure."
- Sun Tzu, 469 BCE
- Sun Tzu, 469 BCE
Re: No such thing as a sure thing
Re: No such thing as a sure thing
I think the better point is that there is risk period. For every Antonio Brown there is a Jeremy Maclin and for every Michael Thomas there is a Devante Parker.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..
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Re: No such thing as a sure thing
60% of the time, it works every time!
Re: No such thing as a sure thing
ftfy
Last edited by ninotoreS on Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
"I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure."
- Sun Tzu, 469 BCE
- Sun Tzu, 469 BCE
- Dookmarriot
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Re: No such thing as a sure thing
They've done studies.
"I like reading the predictions of the morons on here and cashing in by doing the opposite. Especially Dookmariot." - Lotto4Life
"Because of (the Raiders), there's the no-clothesline rule, the no-hitting-out-of-bounds rule, the no-fumbling-forward-in-the-last-two-minutes rule, the no-throwing-helmets rule and the no-Stickum rule. So you see, we're not all bad." - Ted "The Mad Stork" Hendricks
"Because of (the Raiders), there's the no-clothesline rule, the no-hitting-out-of-bounds rule, the no-fumbling-forward-in-the-last-two-minutes rule, the no-throwing-helmets rule and the no-Stickum rule. So you see, we're not all bad." - Ted "The Mad Stork" Hendricks
Re: No such thing as a sure thing
Thank you.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..
Re: No such thing as a sure thing
Risk everywhere but I agree with poster. Can’t assume these established guys are sure things
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