Christian McCaffrey Thread: CMC Extension

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Vcize
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Re: Are you concerned with Christian McCaffrey long term?

Postby Vcize » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:54 pm

Ghosted wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:33 am If he flirts with 80-90 receptions most years, he's going to out-produce a lot of players in this league in ppr.
This seems like a fairly unrealistic expectation. These CoP backs usually have a few super high reception seasons but not with consistency. Even Reggie Bush never broke 80 receptions again after his rookie year. Sproles also only did it once.

What's the most 80+ reception seasons any RB has ever had that wasn't a 3-down back?
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Re: Are you concerned with Christian McCaffrey long term?

Postby StableOfRBs » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:05 pm

Vcize wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:54 pm
Ghosted wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:33 am If he flirts with 80-90 receptions most years, he's going to out-produce a lot of players in this league in ppr.
This seems like a fairly unrealistic expectation. These CoP backs usually have a few super high reception seasons but not with consistency. Even Reggie Bush never broke 80 receptions again after his rookie year. Sproles also only did it once.

What's the most 80+ reception seasons any RB has ever had that wasn't a 3-down back?
...who drafts an RB 8th overall just to use him as a change of pace guy his whole career? Idk if 80-90 receptions every year is realistic either but 65-70 each year isn't out of the question, they're using Stewart as an early down back right now but he's 31 and a free agent after the season, it's probable they add another bigger back next year but I don't see them spending a ton of money and/or draft capital at the position, CMC is more than capable of handling 10-12 carries and 6-8 catches per game. Sure maybe that doesn't seem encouraging given how the Panthers run game has performed so far this year but once the OL gets healthy and the offense starts to get its bleep together their run game should definitely get better, whether that happens this year or next.
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Re: Are you concerned with Christian McCaffrey long term?

Postby Vcize » Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:02 pm

StableOfRBs wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:05 pm
Vcize wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:54 pm
Ghosted wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:33 am If he flirts with 80-90 receptions most years, he's going to out-produce a lot of players in this league in ppr.
This seems like a fairly unrealistic expectation. These CoP backs usually have a few super high reception seasons but not with consistency. Even Reggie Bush never broke 80 receptions again after his rookie year. Sproles also only did it once.

What's the most 80+ reception seasons any RB has ever had that wasn't a 3-down back?
...who drafts an RB 8th overall just to use him as a change of pace guy his whole career? Idk if 80-90 receptions every year is realistic either but 65-70 each year isn't out of the question, they're using Stewart as an early down back right now but he's 31 and a free agent after the season, it's probable they add another bigger back next year but I don't see them spending a ton of money and/or draft capital at the position, CMC is more than capable of handling 10-12 carries and 6-8 catches per game. Sure maybe that doesn't seem encouraging given how the Panthers run game has performed so far this year but once the OL gets healthy and the offense starts to get its bleep together their run game should definitely get better, whether that happens this year or next.
"Change of pace" vs. "part time" is really just semantics. You said as long as he can get 80-90 receptions he's gold but my point was outside of an incredible receiving back that's out there on every single play a la Marshall Faulk there really isn't any precedent for a guy catching that many balls repeatedly. These part time guys are always way up and down year to year and rarely have more than 1 or 2 years in their career where they catch balls at the rate McCaffrey is. And McCaffrey looks a looooonnnnngggg ways from the kind of workhorse that Faulk was.

Besides what their intent was originally isn't the only factor. I'm sure Reggie Bush and CJ Spiller weren't drafted in the top 10 to be part time guys either but that's primarily how the teams that drafted them ended up using them.

Bottom line, all of these things are certainly enough to be concerned, mightily.
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Re: Are you concerned with Christian McCaffrey long term?

Postby StableOfRBs » Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:36 pm

Vcize wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:02 pm
StableOfRBs wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:05 pm
Vcize wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:54 pm

This seems like a fairly unrealistic expectation. These CoP backs usually have a few super high reception seasons but not with consistency. Even Reggie Bush never broke 80 receptions again after his rookie year. Sproles also only did it once.

What's the most 80+ reception seasons any RB has ever had that wasn't a 3-down back?
...who drafts an RB 8th overall just to use him as a change of pace guy his whole career? Idk if 80-90 receptions every year is realistic either but 65-70 each year isn't out of the question, they're using Stewart as an early down back right now but he's 31 and a free agent after the season, it's probable they add another bigger back next year but I don't see them spending a ton of money and/or draft capital at the position, CMC is more than capable of handling 10-12 carries and 6-8 catches per game. Sure maybe that doesn't seem encouraging given how the Panthers run game has performed so far this year but once the OL gets healthy and the offense starts to get its bleep together their run game should definitely get better, whether that happens this year or next.
"Change of pace" vs. "part time" is really just semantics. You said as long as he can get 80-90 receptions he's gold but my point was outside of an incredible receiving back that's out there on every single play a la Marshall Faulk there really isn't any precedent for a guy catching that many balls repeatedly. These part time guys are always way up and down year to year and rarely have more than 1 or 2 years in their career where they catch balls at the rate McCaffrey is. And McCaffrey looks a looooonnnnngggg ways from the kind of workhorse that Faulk was.

Besides what their intent was originally isn't the only factor. I'm sure Reggie Bush and CJ Spiller weren't drafted in the top 10 to be part time guys either but that's primarily how the teams that drafted them ended up using them.

Bottom line, all of these things are certainly enough to be concerned, mightily.
At no point did I ever say anything like this in this thread, I even specifically said it wasn't very realistic.

Look at it this way, let's say that he averages 4.5 catches per game, not something that insane considering he's a strong receiving talent on a team that wants to involve him pretty regularly in the passing game and a decent bit lower than the 6.3 he's averaging now. That works out to 72 catches on the season, at 7.5 yards/catch (what he's averaging right now) that would be 540 receiving yards at the end of the year which would be a total of 126 points in a PPR league just from catches+rec yards.

Now let's look at what the minimum requirements for an RB1 (the RB12 in a 12 team league) in PPR leagues have been over the past few years:
-2016, Frank Gore, 216 points
-2015 Mark Ingram, 203 points
-2014 LeSean McCoy, 207 points
-2013 Danny Woodhead, 227 points
-2012 Chris Johnson, 219 points
-2011 Michael Bush, 224 points

That's an average of 216 points over the past 6 seasons. If McCaffrey can hit the 126 point baseline just from catches and receiving yards (which I don't think is a big stretch) then he just needs 90 points combined from rushing yards + rushing TDs + receiving TDs in order to be an RB1 and with an improved/healthy OL, a better offense and no JStew I don't see that as a crazy expectation.

Sure McCaffrey is way more valuable in PPR than he is in standard but pretty much everyone knew that before he was even taken by the Panthers (hell the biggest knock was that the Panthers don't throw short so he wouldn't see much receiving work) and yes I'd like to see his rushing efficiency go up (although there are a lot of things influencing that right now that have nothing to do with CMC himself) but considering it's 7 games into the career of a 21 year old running back who is splitting time yet still averaging 12.7 touches per game and is currently a top 12 RB I find it very hard to be concerned by his production so far.
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Re: Are you concerned with Christian McCaffrey long term?

Postby Vcize » Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:28 pm

StableOfRBs wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:36 pmAt no point did I ever say anything like this in this thread, I even specifically said it wasn't very realistic.
My mistake, I assumed you were the person I was quoting without looking at the name. Anyway, you kind of jumped into the middle of a conversation about his value upholding with 80-90 catches with a different point, but my fault for not looking at the names.
StableOfRBs wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:36 pmLook at it this way, let's say that he averages 4.5 catches per game, not something that insane
Well yea, it's fairly insane (and not that far off the 80-90 conversation you were so quick to opt out of). How insane? Like, best in NFL history among RBs insane, with only Marshall Faulk even coming close.

And like I mentioned above, it really takes a 3-down player that's out there on basically every play to get that kind of consistent work receiving. And even in that case, we're talking a use case of 1 here.

Among part-time players, Bush was 4.0. Sproles was 3.9. And for both of those guys that's only counting the prime of their careers and subtracting out their twilight years when they caught less balls and Sproles' early years where he played much more sparingly. For their whole careers without those stripped out we're talking the 3.25ish range for both.

More worrisome is that with the limited success, Carolina may make a conscious decision to move away from it. McCaffrey's efficiency with these receptions is about the same as Bush's and Bush was phased out more and more every year because of it. Not particularly slowly either, with his receptions dropping off fairly largely year over year until he was eventually let go.

Further, teams generally seem to find these kind of guys relatively replaceable as pretty much all of them have moved on when their contract was up, even the best (like Sproles).
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Re: Are you concerned with Christian McCaffrey long term?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:17 pm

I'll add to the above posts (without quoting 43 separate paragraphs), that "PPR backs" are insanely frustrating to start on a weekly basis.

Anyone who owned Gio the past 3 years can tell you that. His year-end cumulative stats looked great, but you never knew if he would give you 14 carries for 85 yards and 8 catches for 75 years, OR if he would give you 7 carries for 12 yards and 2 catches for 10 yards.
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Re: Are you concerned with Christian McCaffrey long term?

Postby Ghosted » Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:14 am

Vcize wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:54 pm
Ghosted wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:33 am If he flirts with 80-90 receptions most years, he's going to out-produce a lot of players in this league in ppr.
This seems like a fairly unrealistic expectation. These CoP backs usually have a few super high reception seasons but not with consistency. Even Reggie Bush never broke 80 receptions again after his rookie year. Sproles also only did it once.

What's the most 80+ reception seasons any RB has ever had that wasn't a 3-down back?
I feel like you took that projection forecast way to literally. I simply said if he flirts with. He's pacing for 100 this year alone (as a rookie). Would I expect 80 literally every season? No. Sometimes he will fall short, sometimes exceed. Bush is a fair comp, though, and one that I have used myself. He did at least average 80 his first 2 years (even though he only played 12 games his second year, and probably would have caught over 90 that year) before his usage rates plummeted. Year 3 he was still pacing for 80 receptions before another injury wiped him out. The point is, yes it is entirely feasible for him to flirt with those numbers. Is it on him to improve so his usage rates don't decline, as well? Absolutely. But lets not pretend like it isn't possible for him to succeed in todays NFL.

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Re: Are you concerned with Christian McCaffrey long term?

Postby BigJoeWall72 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:24 am

Vcize wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:28 pm
StableOfRBs wrote: Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:36 pmLook at it this way, let's say that he averages 4.5 catches per game, not something that insane
Well yea, it's fairly insane (and not that far off the 80-90 conversation you were so quick to opt out of). How insane? Like, best in NFL history among RBs insane, with only Marshall Faulk even coming close.
CMC has yet to have a game with less than 4 catches though... So, based on the evidence so far, it doesn't seem all that insane for him to average 4.5 catches per game. And that's with him being on the field for only 69% of the offensive snaps this season (so far).

It seems to me that there were some people who thought CMC had a chance to be THE GUY in the backfield in a traditional sense. Get 10-15 carries and 3+ catches every week. He is obviously disappointing if that was the expectation (so far).

I don't know that he will ever be a traditional RB like that - like what we have seen in the past in the NFL. He might very well be part of an evolution of the game where matchups are the most important thing, and he might always be moved around the offensive formation for his entire career or schemed to have a different role in the offense each week. More like a WR that lines up at RB a bunch?

Also, it seems that a lot of the excuses that are made for Mixon (who by the way is averaging only a hair over 3 ypc), like having bad o-line or that there are other RBs involved in the offense, could easily apply to CMC as well, but are overlooked by the people who are down on him.

Anyway, to answer the OP's question. I am not concerned with CMC long term. He is a rookie who has played 7 real games, and I think it might just take some time for the coaching staff to figure out how to best utilize his talents and might take him some time to adjust to the game. Jarred Goff supposedly sucked after last year... and while I know that QB is a longer transition time to the NFL than the traditional RB, I think CMC is a unique players that also might take some time to hone his craft.

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Re: Are you concerned with Christian McCaffrey long term?

Postby Needalife » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:52 am

I think his career can be like a Danny Woodhead with more opportunity. Those years where Woodhead was just dominant yet got no respect.... that is how I see CMC performing peaking over the course of his career. I think he'll begin to find the endzone more as he has more years and chemistry built also. I remember when Woodhead had things clicking, he was a MUST start but always got disrespected a little despite production. We shall see, but I love a 4-catch ppr-floor thus far.
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Re: Are you concerned with Christian McCaffrey long term?

Postby PurpleHAze20 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:54 am

lukkynumber13 wrote: Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:12 pm And I will be very clear about the fact that I was a big fan of his talent coming out of college. I said that watching his Stanford games, he reminded me of Shady. So just as a fan of good football, it's disappointing to see him show zero electricity. But I also said many times on these forums, his floor is that he could end up as a similar asset to Gio Bernard. And for that reason, I didn't pursue him in drafts.
Just traded CMC for Shady. While I believe he will be a good rb2 in ppr I think his upside is capped as he will probably never be a 3 down rb. I am a contender and feel like I can find a cheaper CMC type like James White.
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Re: Are you concerned with Christian McCaffrey long term?

Postby Space Cowboy » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:56 am

Danny Woodhead II

I couldn't stop laughing the first time I saw CMC in a t shirt. Literally had the upper body of a HS sophomore.

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Christian McCaffrey now

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Sep 30, 2018 1:23 am

I dismissed McCaffrey last year because his size seemed it would limit him long term- primarily to satellite back roles and to only a few carries.

Last week's 28 carry 184 yard performance has me ready to consider, if he maintains that throughout the season and Carolina does make him the bellcow they've mentioned.

Thoughts on CMC now?
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Re: Christian McCaffrey now

Postby slaughterrt » Sun Sep 30, 2018 4:44 am

I’ve been a fan since he came in. Everyone wanted to knock him because of his size saying that he would never be an every down back. Last week disproved that notion and showed he is capable.

The thing is, all RBs (and any player for that matter) are one hit away (or even one non contact cut away) from potential injury. It’s the nature of the game. I don’t believe CMC is in any more danger of getting hurt compared to any other RB.

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Re: Christian McCaffrey now

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:17 am

I need to see more rushing performances like that before jumping to an alternative conclusion. Obviously it was a really good game, but I still have doubt about him being a long-term workhorse back.

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Re: Christian McCaffrey now

Postby Jigga94 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:06 am

I think he should be in the top tier of backs in PPR. 2nd tier in non PPR. Hes basically Danny Woodhead but on all downs instead of just 3rd. A better runner as well


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