Nick Chubb Thread: Chubb = Stud

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ninotoreS
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:31 am

Defender wrote: Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:19 am The number of targets and receptions he has had tell me nothing about how elite of a receiver he is. What they do tell he is that 1. His team played from behind a lot, and 2. He was the only half decent pass catching back. A quick look at the available evidence confirms these two points. Which brings me back to my initial conjecture: Duke Johnson is not elite. He has been very good, especially when compared to the rest of the team. But he is not good enough to keep Chubb off the field.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/f ... ving-backs
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... -extension

Isaiah Crowell was a "half decent pass catching back," by the way. 96 receptions in four years with 8.0 ypr.

Duke still got as much usage as he did because he's just that good at it.

From the second article:

The 5-foot-9, 210-pound Johnson, though a bit undersized compared to the NFL’s bell-cows, defies stereotypes despite his stature. In 2017, Johnson rushed between the tackles 42 times for 202 yards, ranking sixth among qualifying running backs (min. 40 carries) in yards per carry (4.70) ahead of bigger backs like Marshawn Lynch (4.66) and Ezekiel Elliot (4.24). To Johnson’s credit, his work up the middle isn’t even his claim to fame.

Johnson’s impact on the passing game, both from a volume and efficiency standpoint, is rivaled by very few in today’s NFL. He caught 74-of-90 targets for 693 yards and three touchdowns a year ago, ranking third in receiving yards and fourth in total receptions among all running backs. Despite his high volume of snaps in route, he ranked seventh in yards per route run (2.08) among running backs with at least 30 targets. With his sure hands, Johnson also dropped just 3-of-77 catchable targets.

Unlike a majority of the league’s backs, Johnson had significant success running routes and catching the ball away from the backfield, as he ran north of 80 routes either in the slot or at outside receiver. Such positional versatility contributed to his fourth-ranked average depth of target (1.88) and eighth-ranked passer rating when targeted (100.8) among running backs with at least 60 targets in 2017. He also turned 44.6 percent of his receptions into either first downs or touchdowns this past season, which ranked fifth among the same group of backs.

Of course, Johnson’s successes running between the tackles and catching the football are both propped up by his ability to make people miss in space. Johnson finished the 2017 season with the eighth-ranked elusive rating (65.5) among backs with at least 100 touches because of his ability to avoid contact altogether. Forcing 39 missed tackles across his 156 touches, Johnson ranked third behind just Alvin Kamara (28.4 percent) and Theo Riddick (26.3 percent) in missed tackles forced per touch at 25.0 percent.

And for those under the impression that Johnson’s career year is just a flash in the pan, his efficiency in previous seasons tells a different story.

He has averaged a whopping 26.0 percent forced missed tackle rate across his 447 career touches, which ranks second to Dion Lewis (27.8) among running backs with at least 300 touches over the past three seasons. Also, Johnson’s career yards per route run (1.83) ranks tied for third among running backs with at least 300 routes run from 2015-17.

The real crime in the aforementioned set of numbers is Johnson’s 447 touches, as 28 other NFL backs have had more touches than him in the last three years despite only a handful coming close to his rushing and receiving efficiency rates. Dorsey’s decision to make Johnson one of the highest-paid running backs in football should change that.
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby Ice » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:02 am

Defender wrote: Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:19 am
Ice wrote: Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:51 am
btv802 wrote: Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:14 am

Because he's proven to be one of the best pass catching backs in the league along with Chris Thompson in Washington. These guys are elite at what they do. As long as they are around they cap the touches for the other backs in their team's respective backfield.

Game flow will be a big determining factor for these backfields as well though. Duke was ultra productive last year because Cleveland sucked and he was out on the field while they were playing from behind. If Cleveland and/or Washington can regularly play with the lead they are going to be pounding the rock with their battering rams.
Agree: By any measure Johnson is an elite pass catching back at this level.

Johnson in 2017 compared to all NFL RB's.
Targets 93 ( Rank 4th )
Receptions 74 (Rank 4th)
Yards 693 ( Rank 3rd)

In 3 years, 188 receptions for 1741 yards or 9.3 yards per reception. #1 all time first 3 years in the league.

Interesting fact I just read, Herschel Walker and Johnson are the only RB's in history with 500 plus receiving yards in their first 3 years in the league.
The number of targets and receptions he has had tell me nothing about how elite of a receiver he is. What they do tell he is that 1. His team played from behind a lot, and 2. He was the only half decent pass catching back. A quick look at the available evidence confirms these two points. Which brings me back to my initial conjecture: Duke Johnson is not elite. He has been very good, especially when compared to the rest of the team. But he is not good enough to keep Chubb off the field.
RB's use in the passing game has ZERO correlation to a team playing from behind in today's NFL. RB targets are a function of a team's offensive system. Passing to a RB is little more than a long hand off these days. See New Orleans Saints as just one example. They targeted RB's a whopping 34% of the time. The Browns threw it 140 times to various RB's which was a rate of 25.8%. The Pats as an example threw it to RB's 27.1% of the time.

Here is a stat page that will show RB targets as a percentage of team passing.

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports ... tribution/
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:45 pm

there is talk chubb may win the starter spot in camp, that's how impressive he's looked thus far.

i'm at the point where i would only draft guice ahead of him right now. no, i don't own the #1 pick anywhere so barkley is out of reach.

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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby ninotoreS » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:06 pm

Chubb hasn't particularly stood out yet. That talk is just puffery. It's difficult for RBs to shine in OTAs because they're not wearing pads.

I do expect him to outplay Hyde, but training-camp is when that competition will actually start.
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:40 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:06 pm Chubb hasn't particularly stood out yet. That talk is just puffery. It's difficult for RBs to shine in OTAs because they're not wearing pads.

I do expect him to outplay Hyde, but training-camp is when that competition will actually start.
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby honcho55 » Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:18 pm

Enjoying the read of this thread, just want to check in from a different perspective. I’m MUCH more successful as an NFL better than I am a fantasy player, and I gotta say, I’m optimistic for the brownies for once. And I’ve been cashing in on them for a while.

Their defense was actually pretty good last year, particularly against the run. They did have a particular knack for losing that I haven’t quite seen in my days.

I do think they are turning it around though. They’ve made some good personell moves, and honestly they are one of those teams that I can’t foresee being as bad or worse than last year. Cite things like regression to the mean, or what have you. I’m calling this team to be significantly better. Which is admittedly not saying much as they were historically bad last year.
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:41 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:06 pm Chubb hasn't particularly stood out yet. That talk is just puffery. It's difficult for RBs to shine in OTAs because they're not wearing pads.

I do expect him to outplay Hyde, but training-camp is when that competition will actually start.
true but if he's hitting the right gap every time it shows the coaches that he understands what's happening in front of him, understands where he's supposed to go, can see where the hole is to attack.

now when the pads come on we'll know for sure but it's alot better than hearing he looks slow out there, he doesn't understand what's going on, that he's running into the back of an olineman.

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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby lilpuppy99 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:16 pm

I think you are all wrong. Duke and Chubb have to worry about the 75 million dollar man Jarvis Landry. He catches a ton of passes at or near the line of scrimmage. I think he will significantly affect the catches Cleveland Rbs see.
TEAM 1. 12 team PPR/1.5 TE PPR- 20 man roster, 3 IR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, Def, K

QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Zeke Elliott, David Johnson, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, Damien Harris, A Mattison, Darwin Thompson
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TE: Zach Ertz, D Goedert, Will Dissly
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QB: Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky
RB: Kareem Hunt, Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Adrian Peterson, C Hyde
WR: Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, D Parker, AJ Brown, DJ Chark, J Ross, D Funchess
TE: Zach Ertz, Irv Smith Jr, Will Dissly
K: Stephen Gostkowski
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:38 pm

I think Chubb will catch around 2 passes a game, but will be a really good old school RB, like Fournette or EE. I don't see the numbers Zeke put up, as Zeke had an ideal situation, but I do see him doing at least what Jordan Howard did on the ground, and I'll take that. Barkley and Penny are really the only two backs I feel have a good shot at consistent 3 down work out of this years rookie crop, and there just aren't too many Gurley/Bell type backs out there. Chubb is a very good 2 down back with the ability to catch a few passes here and there.
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Re: N. Chubb against the world

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:40 pm

Phaded wrote: Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:25 am I think the real question is - is Chubb good enough to stay on the field?
If you think it is an "obvious yes" then you need to re-evaluate.
Chubb does not currently fit the three-down workhorse mold that is less and less common in today's NFL.

The only rookie RB this year that is clearly the best fantasy running back on their roster is Barkley. Everyone else has a lot to prove. I have my guys I like, but even I know they have a lot to prove too.
On first and 2nd downs I believe the answer is yes, but not on 3rd down. Even as a big time Chubb believer I am aware of Duke's superior skill set in obvious passing situations. Chubb may stay out on 3rd and 2, but not third and 7.
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Why is Chubb falling?

Postby bucsrule » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:18 pm

Everything I've seen for months have had Chubb top 4. Now all of a sudden I see him in the 6 to 8 range. Confusing to me considering his opportunity in Cleveland. That team is on the upswing in fantasy and reality.

To get Chubb at 7 you have to be like...."Holy CRAP!!! I got Chubb at 7!!!!!!"

Any idea why his slipping? Curious if I'm missing something.

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Re: Why is Chubb falling?

Postby knotts4372 » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:36 pm

his path to early touches is alot more murky than other rb. i doubt he tops 100 touches year 1 so he was bound to fall
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Re: Why is Chubb falling?

Postby M-Dub » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:37 pm

People want instant gratification from their rookie picks, and Hyde probably scares them off. I’d still take him at 1.04 pretty easily, fwiw.
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Re: Why is Chubb falling?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:37 pm

I think it's his landing in Cleveland and having to compete with Duke Johnson & Carlos Hyde.

I'm happy it's happening though, as I drafted him at #4 in one draft and he lasted til #8 in another. I'll take it.
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Re: Why is Chubb falling?

Postby thebeast » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:38 pm

Duke Johnson being resigned hurts his outlook I both the shor and long term. It’s likely Cleveland doesn’t view him as the three down back the community thought he would be.


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