Joe Mixon Thread: 4 Year extension in Cincy

[FantasyFreak]

We go through this every year with different players. This community puts far too great a premium on youth and perceived upside.

This is the same community who had OBJ & Evans as the only two assets above Cooper.

DLF is very groupthink based and always will be, so when an opinion becomes popular others mindlessly hop on board.

Mixon could be good, but I sold him because I just didn't get the excitement after watching him play.

To be fair, Cooper's trajectory looked a lot more promising, with back to back 1000 yard seasons at age 21 and 22, before last years flop, but that is why perceived upside that has not yet been produced is always risky.

[Rasorin]

OP thank you for this thread! The Mixon hype has been out of control and driving me crazy. . To add to your list, ask Mixonteers about Kamara. On boards, MANY, prefer Mixon to Kamara, with some even saying the Kamara sides need to add because they fear regression and lack of workhorse ability while ignoring lack or production, injuries, character issues, and situation with Mixon.

Definitely super hyped right now with little NFL lackluster production behind the rationale.

[Johnny Canuck]

He’s ~230 lbs with good speed, great lateral agility, he has the skill set to be an effective 3-down back, and hasn’t turned 22 yet.

It’s perfectly OK if you don’t think he passes the eye test, but I thought he was very impressive when his coaches gave him opportunities last season. I don’t lose points if his YPC is less than Gio’s, so I couldn’t care less about that. He won’t play any better or any worse because some people overpaid for him. Making long-winded, whiny posts about how upset his ADP is making you won’t actually make him any less valuable.

It is actually possible for a player to have a poor season, especially in their rookie year, and still go on to have a good career.

There he is, I was wondering when a hardcore truther would show up lol. So Hankmurphy, what say you, would you prefer to have Mixon over OBJ? what other players do you rank above Mixon? Just Gurley? or do Bell, Dhop, and DJ get that privilege as well...

[Johnny Canuck]

OP thank you for this thread! The Mixon hype has been out of control and driving me crazy. . To add to your list, ask Mixonteers about Kamara. On boards, MANY, prefer Mixon to Kamara, with some even saying the Kamara sides need to add because they fear regression and lack of workhorse ability while ignoring lack or production, injuries, character issues, and situation with Mixon.

Definitely super hyped right now with little NFL lackluster production behind the rationale.

Mixon over Kamara is just foolish. I like the Mixonteers moniker

[smbkrypt24]

He’s ~230 lbs with good speed, great lateral agility, he has the skill set to be an effective 3-down back, and hasn’t turned 22 yet.

It’s perfectly OK if you don’t think he passes the eye test, but I thought he was very impressive when his coaches gave him opportunities last season. I don’t lose points if his YPC is less than Gio’s, so I couldn’t care less about that. He won’t play any better or any worse because some people overpaid for him. Making long-winded, whiny posts about how upset his ADP is making you won’t actually make him any less valuable.

It is actually possible for a player to have a poor season, especially in their rookie year, and still go on to have a good career.

Love his size and agility. Can't disagree with the numbers there. However, saying that you don't lose points for a low YPC is shortsighted. There is a reason for the numbers produced. The most common argument I have seen to justify his high ranking is that he passes the eyeball test. You and others want to look at his combine numbers and tell us woah look at this kid, but ignore his production numbers that don't suit your argument such at YPC.
It is possible to have a bad rookie year and bounce back, but you should care about YPC.

[honcho55]

Well, I cant say Im a mixon "truther" (still dont quite understand that term honestly), as I traded him straight up for Derrick Henry a bit back. However, I don't think its so crazy to like the guy. Far as the eye ball test goes, I personally think hes not lived up to his draft status/college production yet, but hes shown me that he might, by showing well in some areas, and showing improvement in others. I think we are spoiled by some RBs instant elite production.

My biggest concern and why I sold him, I dont see enough improvement on that bad OL. Had Cinci done a lot of work on that, I'd have Mixon where the "truthers" do, maybe. Regardless though, he is carrying some value right now and there is merit to it, because the perception is that the talent is there, but it was the bad OL that held him back. AKA, Mixon himself is a perceived high talent, and improving, and that OL can only get better, right? Why sell?

Of course, I did sell, just defending the logic process of someone who wouldn't, I dont think its overly nuts.

[Ice]

Mixon is a tentative runner with horrible vision. Bell is the exact opposite type RB. He has patience and vision.

Until Mixon proves he has the vision to see holes develop he will be closer to a bust than a stud. It makes no difference how big, strong, or fast he is if he can't improve his vision/anticipation.

He is hold to his owners but the phrase caveat emptor should be considered for all others!

[joeya2001]

Now you want hype that's out of control NATHAN PETERMAN!!!!

[Pac_Eddy]

An individual RB's stats are nice, but only tell part of the story. Watching Mixon last year, I saw a guy making plays & breaking tackles just to get to the line of scrimmage. I think he's better than his stats showed, and that the Bengals offensive line will improve as will Mixon.

Sometimes you have to trust your eyes.

I'm glad there are people like the OP, otherwise his value wouldn't be down.

[thebeast]

We go through this every year with different players. This community puts far too great a premium on youth and perceived upside.

This is the same community who had OBJ & Evans as the only two assets above Cooper.

DLF is very groupthink based and always will be, so when an opinion becomes popular others mindlessly hop on board.

Mixon could be good, but I sold him because I just didn't get the excitement after watching him play.

Oh man. Do you not remember last year everyone was saying Cooper should have been drafted ahead of Gurley? My point isn't that that was wrong, it's that it's too early to write off Cooper. He has two 1,000 yard seasons. Gurley had a flop year and is now in the discussion for 1.01. By definition, consensus values have to be groupthink, and actually, pretty much every community is going to succumb to groupthink. The truth is that the groupthink you refer to is more often right than wrong, while rankings and adp aren't perfect they are pretty darn good.

[sugbear65]

I thought I was an island, been claiming Mixon is one of the most overrated players in fantasy right now. Or at least overvalued. I usually get criticized though, I’m glad to see others seem to feel that way as well.

[Phaded]

We go through this every year with different players. This community puts far too great a premium on youth and perceived upside.

This is the same community who had OBJ & Evans as the only two assets above Cooper.

DLF is very groupthink based and always will be, so when an opinion becomes popular others mindlessly hop on board.

Mixon could be good, but I sold him because I just didn't get the excitement after watching him play.

Oh man. Do you not remember last year everyone was saying Cooper should have been drafted ahead of Gurley? My point isn't that that was wrong, it's that it's too early to write off Cooper. He has two 1,000 yard seasons. Gurley had a flop year and is now in the discussion for 1.01. By definition, consensus values have to be groupthink, and actually, pretty much every community is going to succumb to groupthink. The truth is that the groupthink you refer to is more often right than wrong, while rankings and adp aren't perfect they are pretty darn good.

Not sure if it was intentional but you basically pointed out the main reason why groupthink is awful. It is based far too much on "what did a player do last year" - if a groupthink ranking was truly efficient players would not constantly fluctuate dozens of spots yet it continually happens. There is too much focus on trying to overcorrect based on what just happened in a year rather than ranking players based on how good we think they are. There is no tangible way to measure they are "more often right than wrong" but I will just leave it at I completely disagree and all you need to do is look at year to year rankings to see why.

One of my main points remains that many of the rankings in this community seem to default to what the "best case scenario" is for a player rather than a realistic scenario. Associating a cost into a player who has not proven anything close to his ranking because he is young and has upside is how there are so many errors in this mindset.

Savvy owners take advantage of this.

[btv802]

There are far more overrated players than Mixon. Give me Mixon "at cost" over Barkley, Kamara & Dalvin for example.

[Johnny Canuck]

An individual RB's stats are nice, but only tell part of the story. Watching Mixon last year, I saw a guy making plays & breaking tackles just to get to the line of scrimmage. I think he's better than his stats showed, and that the Bengals offensive line will improve as will Mixon.

Sometimes you have to trust your eyes.

I'm glad there are people like the OP, otherwise his value wouldn't be down.

The whole point is, his value isn't down.

Let's not pretend that he was simply amazing and turning negative 4 yard runs into a one yard gain. For every flash play, the guy had some bad plays. Yes he has all the physical tools, but he's gotta work on his vision.

He is being treated like a RB10 or better in trades and startups with very little evidence that proves he's actually worth that.

[Jason3123]

To be fair this thread could be applied to every young player. Mixon was a pretty consensus top 4/5 pick in last year's stud RB class. He's still 21 years old as of today. Unfortunately for him he plays for one of the worst coaching staffs and organizations in the league. Fortunately for him, they did address their o-line pretty significantly this off-season. He looks poised for 250 touches this season if he stays healthy.