Nick Chubb Thread: Chubb = Stud

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ninotoreS
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Re: what does duke extension mean for chubb?

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:55 pm

It means the obvious: Chubb's fantasy ceiling is capped for the next three years -- he will be a 2-down RB only.

Chubb owners should hope Tyrod Taylor plays all of this season and is good enough to threaten for a '19 extension, because the Browns offense will not be pass-heavy so long as Tyrod is the QB. As a dual-threat QB, Taylor only averages around 200 passing yards a game and hasn't thrown more than 436 times over 15 games; in an offense with Taylor, it's possible Chubb could reach 300 carries and thus compensate for his lack of passing-down work. In '18, of course, this would require Hyde being totally benched.

Unfortunately, if Baker Mayfield turns out to be good, this prospect vanishes for Chubb. Only my opinion, but I believe Baker could be a very good NFL QB, and if so he'll make the Browns offense much more pass-heavy. As a 2-down RB, this will hurt Chubb and he'll be game-script vulnerable. I saw a few published writers compare Chubb to Alfred Morris, and '13-'14 Morris may end up being exactly what Chubb is on track for with Baker Mayfield as the QB.

Bottom line, Duke's extension should send Chubb down everyone's draft board. While there are possible scenarios in which he could still be a fantasy RB1 as only a 2-down RB, the odds of that are objectively less likely with Duke in place for the next three years. 2-down RBs are usually just too unreliable in today's NFL week to week to treat them as elite in fantasy.
Last edited by ninotoreS on Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: what does duke extension mean for chubb?

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:02 pm

Phaded wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:01 pm
It does not change anything because we knew this was coming and we also know Chubb is not a true 3-down back. His fantasy ceiling is basically Jordan Howard.
Ceiling is Zeke Elliott IMO. He's a much better prospect/athlete than Howard, so to say that's his ceiling is a bit low.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: what does duke extension mean for chubb?

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:04 pm

Zeke Elliot was both a legit 3-down RB coming out and a legit 3-down RB on his depth-chart. Neither is true for Nick Chubb.
Johnny Canuck wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:33 pm
Has anyone actually seen the year to year breakdown of the contract?
Hasn't been updated on www.spotrac.com yet. Only reliable source I'm aware of for in-depth contract details.
Last edited by ninotoreS on Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: what does duke extension mean for chubb?

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:06 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:04 pm
Zeke Elliot was both a legit 3-down RB coming out and a legit 3-down RB on his depth-chart. Neither is true for Nick Chubb.
I think Chubb can catch 2 passes a game. I think he could rush for 1500 yards if they hand him the ball 320 times. That is their plan for him. They are going to give him the ball a lot at some point, at least that'w what Highsmith indicated when they drafted him. I think his ceiling is higher than Howard. Maybe somewhere between Howard and Zeke is more realistic

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Re: what does duke extension mean for chubb?

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:10 pm

It's not just about reception totals. Chubb will lose snaps. A lot of them. He'll likely be off the field in hurry-up and 2-minute drill, and when the Browns are trailing all game he will struggle to get enough touches to avoid hurting his fantasy owners that week.

Zeke doesn't threaten for 50 receptions a year, but as a legit 3-down RB he's always part of the gameplan. That's important, obviously.
Last edited by ninotoreS on Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: what does duke extension mean for chubb?

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:11 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:55 pm
It means the obvious: Chubb's fantasy ceiling is capped for the next three years -- he will be a 2-down RB only.

Chubb owners should hope Tyrod Taylor plays all of this season and is good enough to threaten for a '19 extension, because the Browns offense will not be pass-heavy so long as Tyrod is the QB. As a dual-threat QB, Taylor only averages around 200 passing yards a game and hasn't thrown more than 436 times over 15 games; in an offense with Taylor, it's possible Chubb could reach 300 carries and thus compensate for his lack of passing-down work. In '18, of course, this would require Hyde being totally benched.

Unfortunately, if Baker Mayfield turns out to be good, this prospect vanishes for Chubb. Only my opinion, but I believe Baker could be a very good NFL QB, and if so he'll make the Browns offense much more pass-heavy. As a 2-down RB, this will hurt Chubb and he'll be game-script vulnerable. I saw a few published writers compare Chubb to Alfred Morris, and '13-'14 Morris may end up being exactly what Chubb is on track for with Baker Mayfield as the QB.

Bottom line, Duke's extension should send Chubb down everyone's draft board. While there are possible scenarios in which he could still be a fantasy RB1 as only a 2-down RB, the odds of that are objectively less likely with Duke in place for the next three years. 2-down RBs are usually just too unreliable in today's NFL week to week to treat them as elite in fantasy.
Not going to happen right out of the gates, though. They aren'y going to go air raid with Baker year 1. Comparing Chubb to Morris is a bit laughable to me. Duke does not fill the same role Chubb does. How many true 3 down backs are there, really? I don't see why someone would change their board with Chubb, unless they thought he was a 3 down back, which he isn't. Not full time, anyway.

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Re: what does duke extension mean for chubb?

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:12 pm

Honestly, frankly, Mayfield reminds me of Aaron Rodgers. And I believe he could start just as hot as Rodgers did if he sits for a year first.

But even for the time the Browns might remain run-heavy for the next 1-2 years, Hyde is currently still a problem, so even that silver lining is tarnished.
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:11 pm
How many true 3 down backs are there, really?
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/ranking ... sheets.php

The first 12 RBs are all legitimate 3-down backs. Some of those don't get true workhorse touchloads, but as I explained previously, just being 3-down capable and designated makes a big difference in the upside and week-to-week reliability for a fantasy RB.

Note Howard is all the way down at #13. That's probably Chubb's ceiling with a well-paid Duke Johnson on his team.
I don't see why someone would change their board with Chubb, unless they thought he was a 3 down back, which he isn't. Not full time, anyway.
Well, granted, if someone already had Chubb objectively ranked like RB6 or so in this class, then okay, he probably doesn't need to drop. I should have clarified that I was referring to the people who have argued him as the RB2 or RB3, etc.
I think he could rush for 1500 yards if they hand him the ball 320 times
This has almost no chance of happening with Duke Johnson a major part of the snap-share every week, even if Hyde retired tomorrow. Chubb will not be on the field enough to get that many carries.
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:36 pm

His slot work will be gone too.
No. He's too good at it and too dominant a mismatch. Expect to see him in the slot in 4-wide often.

He remains a confident bet for over 60 receptions, especially with Taylor. Very effective and well-paid players get used, and Duke is now both those things. On the sub-100 carries bit, you're obviously right.

Signing the extension dooms Duke's chances of being a feature-back somewhere else, but the money does at least pressure the coaching-staff to keep him involved all four quarters now, which hasn't always been the case in previous seasons.
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby nathanq42 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:26 pm

I like Chubb a lot, but for me and where my team is at right now I am leaning towards RBs with a clearer path to immediate impact. So with that said, I won't pick Chubb at 1.04, but if he is there at 1.07 you bet your butt I'm snatching him up!

Not taking situation into consideration

Barkely

Chubb
Guice
Penny
Michel
Rojo

With situation

Barkley

Penny
Guice
Rojo
Michel
Chubb

Basically I have put an emphasis on early opportunity. But I would not question anyone shuffling my second tier. My only issue is when kerryon Johnson goes in the first round.

If Chubb changed spots with anyone of the second tier he would be my 1.02 easily
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby Defender » Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:08 pm

This doesn’t change my option on Chubb or his situation/opportunity.

This does all but guarantee that Hyde will be looking for a new home by this time next year.
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby kris_kapsner » Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:28 pm

I'm not surprised at all that the Browns signed Duke to an extension. A smart team would do that. So it only bolsters my confidence in what they are doing.

Here's what it boils down to. Chubb is a first round talent. Teams don't draft a player at the beginning of the 2nd round at a position they are already strong in unless they view the player as being much more talented than the place in the draft warrants...and I agree with them.

The cream rises to the top and that will be Chubb. Having strong back up/complimentary options behind even elite RB's in this league is smart for a team to do.

Duke will still have a role. But Chubb will rise to the top and be a stud in my opinion.
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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby Blueboy » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:32 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:36 pm
His slot work will be gone too.
No. He's too good at it and too dominant a mismatch. Expect to see him in the slot in 4-wide often.
I watched a heckuva lot of both Duke and Landry last year, and can't imagine Duke seeing anything more than a rotational role behind Jarvis.

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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby Jason3123 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:02 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:36 pm
His slot work will be gone too.
No. He's too good at it and too dominant a mismatch. Expect to see him in the slot in 4-wide often.

He remains a confident bet for over 60 receptions, especially with Taylor. Very effective and well-paid players get used, and Duke is now both those things. On the sub-100 carries bit, you're obviously right.

Signing the extension dooms Duke's chances of being a feature-back somewhere else, but the money does at least pressure the coaching-staff to keep him involved all four quarters now, which hasn't always been the case in previous seasons.
60 catches? He lead the team with 74 and nobody else had more than 33. So who are you ruling out? Landry? Gordon? Njoku? Coleman? He also had a team high 93 targets. Not repeatable unless you think all those guys bust. Not too mention they threw 574 times last year. Don’t see much of an increase with Tyrod at QB, 2 RB additions, defensive additions. Although with Hue at the helm another winless season is possible and maybe they do throw 600 times.

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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:49 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:36 pm
His slot work will be gone too.
No. He's too good at it and too dominant a mismatch. Expect to see him in the slot in 4-wide often.

He remains a confident bet for over 60 receptions, especially with Taylor. Very effective and well-paid players get used, and Duke is now both those things. On the sub-100 carries bit, you're obviously right.

Signing the extension dooms Duke's chances of being a feature-back somewhere else, but the money does at least pressure the coaching-staff to keep him involved all four quarters now, which hasn't always been the case in previous seasons.
Hue Jackson going 4 wide often? In the AFC north, with a good run blocking OL, and a young ascending TE for 3rd downs? I doubt it.

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Re: Nick Chubb catching passes in camp

Postby ArrylT » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:29 am

If you are new to the DLF forums - welcome! - this is the thread where the Chubb truthers hang out.

If you are a truther use the phrase "Duke is a Fluke" to join the Chubb truther ranks and put yourself on the road to earning yourself a free 24
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..


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