Josh Allen - Time to Believe!

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby ImaRounder » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:00 am

he's not even that inaccurate. when you watch the tape the numbers are skewed a bit. putting the ball where only your receiver can catch it is a good trait. it's not his fault his wrs cannot create separation. so if it's incomplete rather than picked, that's a win. big arm, athletic, smart, good teammate, big hands.

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby Jfever » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:09 am

Jason3123 wrote: Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:40 am Will be awful. Hoping Browns take him so they can add another name to their long miserable list of failure and continue disappointing all the suckers who continue to follow them.
Ouch, kinda harsh. But, still kinda funny. :lol: I feel bad for Cleveland fans. I think the organization has been one of the most inept of nearly all professional sports for quite some time. I do however think they are slowly moving in the right direction and I actually find myself rooting for them to turn things around. Because of that, I hope the Giants or Jets draft Josh Allen. There, he could sit behind Eli or whomever with NYJ for a bit, then, assuming he's put some things together, He could have a decent career.

Time will tell.
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Re: Josh Allen

Postby tresskid84 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:38 am

ImaRounder wrote: Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:00 am he's not even that inaccurate. when you watch the tape the numbers are skewed a bit. putting the ball where only your receiver can catch it is a good trait. it's not his fault his wrs cannot create separation. so if it's incomplete rather than picked, that's a win. big arm, athletic, smart, good teammate, big hands.
He is that inaccurate though and the argument about his lack of weapons/style of offense only compensate for a portion of his accuracy% and less his apologists want to think. Even in 2016, when he had several players on that offense in the NFL last year(Hill, Hollister, Gentry, Roullier), the accuracy% was the same.

Again, even isolating the throws in which his wrs DID get a step or more separation over the last two years, the numbers show his accuracy and ball placement is still at the bottom of the class. According to PFF, against the top 10 qbs in the class, he ranks 9th of 10 in acc% (which accounts for drops, batted passes, and throw aways) when his wrs are open (2 or more steps separation) and 7th out of 10 when his wrs had a step of separation. He also ranked 8th out of the ten qbs in percentage of perfectly placed passes and 9th out of ten on passes hitting the frame of his wr (basically the next best position).

Also, looking at this accuracy% with a clean pocket, his number is around 4% lower than this classes' average (out of the top 38 qbs in this class).

Even looking at his acc% by level, he is either at the class average (again, of the top 38 qbs of the class) or well below it at every level (10-19 yard throws are the only level he was not below average, and he was AT the average mark for this class)

I believe it is a myth his accuracy issues are a result of his offensive system or weapons. And again, this isn't to say he CAN'T improve, and if he does, he very likely would be the top qb in the class because I do believe he makes good decisions and he obviously has a huge arm. However, there are A LOT more qbs who's accuracy never improves than the outliers who do.
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby tresskid84 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:41 am

Also, I think there is a chance he could be decently successful even if his accuracy never improves consistently, because he is smart, athletic and has that cannon for an arm, but it would require the right scheme fit.
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby ascherb » Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:31 am

He's the biggest boom or bust QB in the draft, and if a team determines that they think it's reasonable to assume the kid will develop, that's why you see them get drafted higher than their college tape necessarily warrants at the time.

Right now, today, Darnold or Rosen are probably better QBs than Allen. But with Allen's physical tools and the fact that he didn't have much talent around him in college, the upside is there.

On a separate note: I always sort of chuckle when the "sit the rookie QB for a year and let him develop" line regarding these high draft picks.

How much actual development can take place if you aren't playing? There are so few reps available to the backup and #3 QBs during the season, that I don't think the "redshirt" year is really even about actual development. How many of the game's great QB's (who were drafted early with the intention of them one day being the starter) really followed this model anyway? Rodgers... is that it? Maholmes, I guess, but the jury is still out on him. Seems like in recent years, this doesn't really happen.
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Re: Josh Allen

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:37 am

ascherb wrote: Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:31 am He's the biggest boom or bust QB in the draft, and if a team determines that they think it's reasonable to assume the kid will develop, that's why you see them get drafted higher than their college tape necessarily warrants at the time.

Right now, today, Darnold or Rosen are probably better QBs than Allen. But with Allen's physical tools and the fact that he didn't have much talent around him in college, the upside is there.

On a separate note: I always sort of chuckle when the "sit the rookie QB for a year and let him develop" line regarding these high draft picks.

How much actual development can take place if you aren't playing? There are so few reps available to the backup and #3 QBs during the season, that I don't think the "redshirt" year is really even about actual development. How many of the game's great QB's (who were drafted early with the intention of them one day being the starter) really followed this model anyway? Rodgers... is that it? Maholmes, I guess, but the jury is still out on him. Seems like in recent years, this doesn't really happen.
Disagree with that ... aside from actual practices, which I am sure a team can carve out some meaningful reps, a young QB can learn a lot from a veteran ... how to prepare / film study ... how to make in-game adjustments ... how to notice tendencies ... work ethic ... how to handle the media ... how to take control of a huddle ... etc. etc.

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby Lotto4Life » Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:41 am

ascherb wrote: Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:31 amHow much actual development can take place if you aren't playing?
A lot. 64.3% to be exact, given football (like baseball) is 90% mental and 50% physical.

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby ArrylT » Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:44 am

Tom Brady sat 2 years in college before becoming the starting QB at U of Michigan, and then sat another year in the NFL.

Brett Favre was drafted by Atlanta with a coach who said "it would take a plane crash for him to start Favre" before being traded the next year to GB.

Kirk Cousins only started 9 games in his first 3 years.

Carson Palmer sat his 1st year.

Eli Manning sat behind Kurt Warner for 10 games.

Philip Rivers sat behind Drew Brees for 2 years.

Jay Cutler sat for most of 1 season behind Jake Plummer (probably would have for longer if Shanahan hadnt driven Plummer out)

One main reason a QB may need time to develop is not because of his skills but simply to understand the NFL system he is put in. Jared Goff for example was put in a completely different system from College to NFL in Year I and a bunch of people used this to justify he was a bust from the get-go.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby Jason3123 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:07 am

Spending the #1 pick on Allen should result in immediate firing with all the evidence out there showing he's the worst possible #1 prospect ever, but it's the NFL, and also the Browns, who both love sucking and ruining their fans lives. Enjoy Cleveland, lol. Suckers.

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby Jfever » Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:09 am

:wtf: :lol:
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* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby mullmania » Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:01 pm

ArrylT wrote: Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:44 am Tom Brady sat 2 years in college before becoming the starting QB at U of Michigan, and then sat another year in the NFL.

Brett Favre was drafted by Atlanta with a coach who said "it would take a plane crash for him to start Favre" before being traded the next year to GB.

Kirk Cousins only started 9 games in his first 3 years.

Carson Palmer sat his 1st year.

Eli Manning sat behind Kurt Warner for 10 games.

Philip Rivers sat behind Drew Brees for 2 years.

Jay Cutler sat for most of 1 season behind Jake Plummer (probably would have for longer if Shanahan hadnt driven Plummer out)

One main reason a QB may need time to develop is not because of his skills but simply to understand the NFL system he is put in. Jared Goff for example was put in a completely different system from College to NFL in Year I and a bunch of people used this to justify he was a bust from the get-go.
The majority of the examples were solid organizations. I think that is the biggest factor in a QB's success regardless of whether they sit a year.

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby ArrylT » Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:16 pm

Absolutely. There is always a variety of factors as to why something works or it doesnt. Allen to the Browns followed by bad start or Tyrod injury means Allen goes in under-prepared and likely leads to the next Kizer. Allen to the Broncos and is behind Keenum for 10 games + and then them re-designing the offence in a way that (a) fits his style and (b) allows him to learn on the job could be a totally different story.

Basically the Browns are likely to have to show they have franchise stability before their QB is likely to be able to become a franchise cornerstorne - and it is hard to have franchise stability when you've had a long streak of no success and no proven QB. Sort of a catch-22 and the only way to break the cycle is with a lot of freaking luck.

Best case scenario (imo) for whichever QB goes to Cleveland (assuming they do) is that Tyrod plays well enough to start the majority or entire year and but not well enough that Hue Jackson & staff are not shown the door - but thats just my take.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby Dookmarriot » Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:07 pm

Taking the least pro-ready rookie QB with the first overall pick and then throwing him into the fire before he's ready would be so very, very Browns.
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Re: Josh Allen

Postby ImaRounder » Wed Apr 18, 2018 2:24 pm

There are glaring issues for each of the top five QBs. Every one of them. There is nothing that makes Allen any less "pro ready" than any other qb in this draft. Nothing.

Rosen, the most talented in my opinion led his team to sub par seasons.

Mayfield, put up numbers in the Big "don't care about defense" 12 and is a little immature.

Darnold, is the most inconsistent thing I've seen. Did everyone miss the Cotton Bowl this year? Holy crap he looked like the towel boy lining up out there.

Jackson, man I'm rooting for him but I don't see a NFL QB when I watch him.

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Re: Josh Allen

Postby tresskid84 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:35 pm

ImaRounder wrote: Wed Apr 18, 2018 2:24 pm Mayfield, put up numbers in the Big "don't care about defense" 12
This is a weak argument . . . by this logic, every other qb in the big 12 should be as good as Mayfield . . . Josh Allen was playing Hawaii, Texas State, Gardner Webb, New Mexico, Colorado State, and Air Force and still only completed 58% of his passes against those teams combined.

Yes, Mayfield plays in an offense with a lot of simple throws, but even taking only his sample of NFL throws, he is by far the best qb in this class. His ball placement is second to none in this class, as is his accuracy at all levels of the field.
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15


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