Sell me on Calvin Ridley

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:37 am

jaykay22 wrote:
Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:30 pm
I think there's a lot of people that are letting the hype created around Ridley define their view and expectations of his. People who bought into the "Amari Cooper's successor" hype are now doing a 180 as they are upset to find out that they bought into unfounded hype, as Cooper and Ridley are nothing alike. People who were never huge Ridley fans are using the fact that he's not an elite athlete or seemingly surefire prospect to dog him and pile on post-combine, despite him being a good football player yet not a surefire prospect.

I don't agree with OP's knock on Ridley about his late breakout because he's a bit of a special case as he was something like a 20 year old freshman. Obviously that's not working in his favor, but if a guy didn't step foot on a college field until he was almost 20 years old of course his breakout age isn't going to be great. But he did have a pretty good freshman year, so he came into his own in the college game quickly.

I do agree with previous posts in this same thread that think he's going to be a WR2-WR3 in the league. Ridley reminds me of a hybrid between Stevie Johnson and John Brown. He's an older, slightly-built prospect who will be a 24 year old rookie, much like Brown. Like Brown he's got good hands and can take the top off of a defense. Unlike Brown, he's not AS explosive, however he's got a more convincing college experience (SEC/Bama vs Pittsburgh State/DII for Smokey). Like Johnson (once he came into his own in the league a few seasons in), his route-running can put dudes on skates and make DB's look foolish, and he seems potentially effective at moving the chains for an offense as he's pretty solid at all 3 levels of the field. He's a bit bigger and less sudden than Brown, and he's a bit smaller and faster than Johnson.

Is Ridley worth a top 6 pick? Well, it depends. Ridley on say, the Saints opposite of Michael Thomas with Brees slinging it? Sure. Ridley on the Colts opposite of TY with a healthy Luck? Absolutely. Ridley on the Ravens with Flacco? Ehhhhh, probably not.

John Brown's best year to date for his career: 65/1003/7
Stevie Johnson's best years to date for his career: 82/1073/10, 76/1004/7, 79/10046/6

If he lands in an ideal situation, I'm comfortable nabbing him as early as 1.03.
If he lands in a good but not great situation, I'm comfortable drafting him at 1.05 and later.
If he lands in a terrible situation, I'm comfortable drafting him at 1.08 and later.

FWIW he is my WR3:

1. Sutton
2. Miller
3. Ridley
4. Washington
5. ESB
Miller at 2, and no DJ in your top 5? Wow. Amazing how differently some people see things. Not trashing your evaluation, but I have Sutton 1 and 2, and no Miller in top 5. I'll do the courtesy of watching a bit more of him. He was super productive, but is older and although somewhat athletic, as well as being undersized. What specifically do you like about his tape/profile that has him that high?
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby spotxc » Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:15 pm

I can't see ridley being lower than 3 at the moment...He still looks like a solid wr prospect where there aren't any clear studs in this class

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Sat Apr 07, 2018 2:47 pm

I personally like Moore & Sutton a lot more ... but I have a feeling that Ridley could be this years Cook. So many people were down on Cook after the combine, but he showed he could produce in games.

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|QB| J. Allen, D. Lock, E. Stick (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Jacobs, J. Mixon, L. Murray, R. Anderson
|WR| C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, M. Gallup, J. Ross
|TE| M. Gesicki, I. Thomas, T. Eifert, M. LaCosse
|K| G. Zuerlein, B. Maher
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|DE| D. Lawrence, Y. Ngakoue, C. Young, J. Clowney, J. Pierre-Paul, D. Barnett, A. Key, J. Sweat (taxi)
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby HawkeyeState » Sat Apr 07, 2018 2:53 pm

Calvin Ridley is probably the most overhyped WR that shouldn't be. Every major draft analyst has him as this speedster and this refined route runner that is the undisputed #1 in the class.
It's laughable to be quite honest. He's an average at best athlete all around. Just look at his player profiler page to see how truly average this guy is.
He'll be a good NFL teams #2 or #3 WR, but he'll never be able to be a #1 and demand that defenses double him or gameplan to stop him.

I would rather take shots on Sutton/Moore/James Washington and completely whiff.
Ridley to me feels like that guy you draft in the top 6 of rookie drafts and will annually disappoint you in FF. He'll have very low trade value, but if you cut him, every guy in the league would be willing to add him for free to see if he can get it together for a free shot.
Team 1
10 TM .5 PPR, 6 pt all TDs 1/2/3/1/2Flex
Newton, Rivers
LF, Chubb, Michel, Kerryon, Hyde, AJones, Royce F, Crowell
Adams, Cooper, Alshon, Watkins, ARob, Fuller, Doctson, Funchess, Gallup, Pettis, Valdez-Scant
Gronk, HHenry, Engram
1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09

Team 2
10 TM 1/2/3/1/1Flex 6pt all TDs .25 PPR RB, .5 PPR WR, 1 PPR TE
Wilson, Big Ben
Bell, JConner, MMack, Shady, CThompson, D'Onta Foreman, C Edmonds, B Scarborough
Julio, Nuk, Fuller, Cooks, ARob, Watkins, Cooper, SShepard, CDavis, DJ Chark
Kelce, Olsen, Andrews
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Team 3
10 team, 0.5 PPR RBs WRs, 1 PPR TEs, Devy Superflex League
Carr, Goff, Falk
Barkley, Dalvin, Mixon, Michel, Ballage, MDavis, Dixon, Akers*
Hopkins, JuJu, Watkins, Fuller, Agholor, Moncrief, EQSB, Valdez-Scant, CRogers
Eifert, Ebron, JJames, JCook
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Played against David Johnson in HS, he was a stud back then too

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby RightlegTucker » Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:04 pm

Pullo Vision wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:15 am
If you watched NFL Network's coverage of the Combine, you'd have heard alot of enthusiasm for Ridley. Even when the TEs were on the field, they found a way to show Ridley footage and discuss him. Michael Irvin in particular was very enthusiastic.
They hyped up and showed a lot of enthusiasm for Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, and a variety of other prospects over the years too when they were coming out. That's what they do. General enthusiasm for a prospect by on air anchors is nebulous and offers nothing of value. I (and I assume OP) are looking for concrete reasons why Calvin Ridley should be viewed as the top prospect of this WR class. Did they say anything noteworthy or specific about him that led you to agree with their opinion(s)? For example, Lance Zierlen highlighted his technical route running and compared his ability to Marvin Harrison. That was a bit much from my perspective, and seemed more hyperbolic than anything. It was something tangible though.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby KilgoreT111 » Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:10 pm

People sometimes make to big a deal about breakout age. In this case it seems justified. When Ridley played his first game as a freshman for Alabama he was only 1 month younger than Juju was as a rookie in the NFL....

This isn't a statement of whether or not he'll be a good NFL player or not. I've learned enough to say who knows, but it should definitely be taken into account.
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Vcize » Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:26 pm

KilgoreT111 wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:10 pm
People sometimes make to big a deal about breakout age. In this case it seems justified. When Ridley played his first game as a freshman for Alabama he was only 1 month younger than Juju was as a rookie in the NFL....

This isn't a statement of whether or not he'll be a good NFL player or not. I've learned enough to say who knows, but it should definitely be taken into account.
The bold seems a bit backwards. Typically breakout age has some correlation to NFL success (about the 4th most predictive, I believe), but I think typically a worst case scenario in that respect is when a player performs poorly as an underclassmen and then all of the sudden breaks out when he's the oldest guy on the field. If I were going to say "in this case it seems justified" I would think that would apply to someone who followed that path.

Unlike the guys who typically have a high breakout age, and who likely are the ones that make the stat correlate to NFL struggles, Ridley didn't underperform when he didn't have an age advantage. We just never saw what happened in that scenario. His breakout age was old because he enrolled in school old. He broke out as early as he could.

In that sense I'd rate his breakout age as a bit of an "incomplete". Obviously not as good as if he was dominating at age 20 like Juju, but not as bad as if he were getting shut down at age 20. Kind of in the middle.

The worrying thing about Ridley for me is that he's small and fairly unathletic. It seems like most successful small receivers are notably quick, which Ridley really isn't. The one thing he has going for him is that the one athletic measure he performed well in (40 time) is the one that has by far the highest correlation to NFL success of any of those athlete variables for WRs.
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Jason3123 » Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:00 pm

Why waste a pick on Ridley when you can draft the superior Christian Kirk.

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby whodunnit » Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:24 pm

bsp27 wrote:
Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:39 am
Goirish374 wrote:
Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:36 am
I mean, i think the discussion becomes a lot shorter when we begin with the assumption that dominator rating and breakout age are as predictive as we want them to be.
I mean, I provided the chart which shows that there no receivers in his archetype that have succeeded, and that isn't even including his lackluster production.
I don't know what you, or anyone else considers production, or succeeding, but I would say Cooper Kupp's rookie season of 62/869/5 isn't necessarily not succeeding or producing.... and I see no reason he can't get better. The rest of your list I could get on board with (although Keelan Cole had a decent 2nd half of his season as well). Maybe an outlier? Maybe a fluke season?

just a thought.
Watson Goff Trubisky Rosen *Luck
A.Jones Ingram Gurley Conner R.Jones Robinson
Hill Golladay Boykin Williams Renfrow Lamb Reagor Pittman Shenault Doctson Tr.Smith O.Johnson
Hockenson Hollister Knox Kmet Eifert
Allen Watt Armstead Beasley Barnett Collier
Judon Chubb Jones P.Smith Takitaki Whitehead
Savage Jackson Ward
PS: Newman, Jamie (QB) Borghi, Max (RB) Brown, Journey (RB) Wallace, Tylan (WR) Surratt, Sage (WR)


Mayfield Winston Jones Rudolph
Henry Gurley Jacobs Montgomery McKinnon Pollard Procise Burkhead
Hopkins Kupp Ridley AJG
Fant Brate James Reed
Heyward Houston Jordan
Watt Collins Mack Dupree Bucannon Bradham
Mathieu Diggs

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Kcarr » Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:53 pm

Kupp was 15 pounds heavier and an inch shorter so that is a much thicker and more solid build. He also was more than a tenth quicker in 3 cone and 4 tenths quicker in the 20 yard and 6 inches better in the broad jump. All of that shows a stockier build with more agility, short area quickness, and explosion
Last edited by Kcarr on Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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RB: Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliot, Theo Riddick, D'Onta Foreman, James Conner, Jamal Williams
WR: Alshon Jeffrey, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews, Cole Beasley, Robby Anderson, Corey Davis, Breshad Perriman, Eli Rogers
TE: Eric Ebron, , David Njoku, Jack Doyle
K: Will Lutz
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby lukkynumber13 » Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:02 pm

Jason3123 wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:00 pm
Why waste a pick on Ridley when you can draft the superior Christian Kirk.
... :shock:

Yucky.
TEAM A - 12 teams (19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
BREES, Tua, Jimmy G
COOK/JACOBS/BELL, Dobbins, Swift, Gurley, Dillon, D Washington, Gio, Gallman
NUK/HILL/EVANS/GOLLADAY/K ALLEN, Jeudy, Hilton, Ruggs, Edelman, Wims
KITTLE, Waller, Gesicki, Akins
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Not listing my IDP, but they matter as much as offense in this league. The Bosa Bros, D-Buck, and Cam Jordan are my main studs.
///
///
TEAM B - 32 teams, double copy - TEs get slight bump in scoring
DARNOLD, Herbert, J Love, Cam, Brissett, Tyrod
SAQUON/MIXON/CHUBB, Gordon, D Freeman, Gallman, L Miller
NUK/EVANS/OBJ/K ALLEN/THIELEN, Lamb, Landry, J Reed
KITTLE/ENGRAM, Ian Thomas, Akins, D Walker
-
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby whodunnit » Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:06 pm

Kcarr wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:53 pm
Kupp was 15 pounds heavier and an inch shorter so that is a much thicker and more solid build. He also was more than a tenth quicker in 3 cone and 4 tenths quicker in the 20 yard and 6 inches better in the broad jump. All of that shows a stickier build with more agility, short area quickness, and explosion
I'm just referring to OP's list he posted.
Watson Goff Trubisky Rosen *Luck
A.Jones Ingram Gurley Conner R.Jones Robinson
Hill Golladay Boykin Williams Renfrow Lamb Reagor Pittman Shenault Doctson Tr.Smith O.Johnson
Hockenson Hollister Knox Kmet Eifert
Allen Watt Armstead Beasley Barnett Collier
Judon Chubb Jones P.Smith Takitaki Whitehead
Savage Jackson Ward
PS: Newman, Jamie (QB) Borghi, Max (RB) Brown, Journey (RB) Wallace, Tylan (WR) Surratt, Sage (WR)


Mayfield Winston Jones Rudolph
Henry Gurley Jacobs Montgomery McKinnon Pollard Procise Burkhead
Hopkins Kupp Ridley AJG
Fant Brate James Reed
Heyward Houston Jordan
Watt Collins Mack Dupree Bucannon Bradham
Mathieu Diggs

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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Vcize » Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:12 pm

bsp27 wrote:
Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:39 am
Goirish374 wrote:
Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:36 am
I mean, i think the discussion becomes a lot shorter when we begin with the assumption that dominator rating and breakout age are as predictive as we want them to be.
I mean, I provided the chart which shows that there no receivers in his archetype that have succeeded, and that isn't even including his lackluster production.
The "lackluster production" thing is misleading. His dominator score got knocked down because he sat out so much when Alabama had big leads and let their backup QB they were developing throw to a bunch of backup WRs.

The average WR gets 45% of their production in the first half of games and 55% in the 2nd half. Ridley had 70% of his production in the 1st half. It's not because he was tired. It's because he was sitting out a lot in the 2nd half when they were up by 40 points.
Last edited by Vcize on Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby nathanq42 » Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:19 pm

Not a guy I would own, just because I usually buy successful receivers and draft RB. I find it easier to scout and predict RBs than WRs, not to mention most often you have to sit on WRs for awhile. Plus my league is .2 points per carry (I hate it, but we have a third WR spot so it isn't too bad) so second tier RBs that have warts (Cook, Mixon, Fournette, Melvin Gordon) are pretty close to high end WRs. Not to mention the amount of 1000 yard WRs is waaaaaay bigger than 1000 yard RBs which makes trading for a good RB that much harder.

Also I am not a fan of how light he is. I feel like it will be very easy to jam him and knock him off his routes.
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RB Rashaad Penny, Austin Ekeler, Royce Freeman, Jerrick McKinnon, Justice Hill
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TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller, Jacob Hollister
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Re: Sell me on Calvin Ridley

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:41 pm

I think Ridley has a high floor; you know what you're getting out of him to some degree. He runs really good routes, sharp cuts in and out of his breaks, can make corners look absolutely stupid if they give him space, catches well on the move and he can play around the formation. I don't see him as a #1 WR though. Sure, that's weird to say for someone who's projected to be the top WR prospect in this group, but this WR group isn't very good to begin with.


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