Rookie synopsis - the wide receivers

[Ghosted]

So, for a long time I've kept scouting notebooks that I've done as a hobby on prospects, going back to the late 90's before I started really getting into dynasty (my friend's and I did some small leagues, but that was about it back then). Anyway, I decided to list my top prospects some positions this year for a few reasons, but mainly because I thought it would be fun for others to list theirs as well for a comparison tool so that we could share notes (and for the fun of the conversation).

As a note, my grades are mainly used to differentiate between tier breaks (and to compare players to previous years). They're not necessarily a correlation to my belief of who will be more valuable in fantasy (the system that they land it will matter a lot for most). The player notes are a simple synopsis of my own personal observations (I didn't feel like typing all of my notes - there are pages and pages lol). There are other metrics that I use as part of my evaluations, but this isn't really the post for that I guess. If there is a player comp, it's strictly due to play style and isn't an indication that I believe that he will be as good (or not as good).

So to start:

1) Courtland Sutton - Small disclaimer: I've been a fan of his for a long time. Has developed nicely every year since coming to SMU as a safety; not a finished product. Not overly elusive or explosive, but shows great footwork and hesitation moves for a man his size. Engages most of his routes, and is not lazy with them. Good at the stem. Great hands, but did have some concentration drops. Has enough speed to get deep and is good on the boundaries. Potential to be a red zone monster. Still learning how to use his hands when fighting with defenders, and has shown on-field immaturity at times with pointless penalties. Drew crazy coverages vs. TCU, and suffered from inconsistent QB play. Might be a slow developer. Player comp: Alshon Jeffery. Grade: 8.4

2) Calvin Ridley - Easy speed and hip fluidity. Suddenness of his routes creates NFL-level separation. Can get eaten alive with physical coverage and press techniques, and offers zero as a blocker. Smooth runner but isn't overly-elusive with the ball in his hands. Possess deep speed to get behind defenders. Shows good route acumen and sells routes with quick-twitch movement and head fakes. Doesn't possess size or physicality to make contested catches. Combine measurements will be important, as he'll likely come in around 24-25 BMI, which has historically been problematic if under 24. Is he strictly a slot guy in the NFL? Player comp: Marvin Harrison. Grade: 7.9

3) DJ Moore - Small, but physical. Good speed but isn't a burner. Good fluidity in his routes and when in possession of the ball. Doesn't uncover enough vs. physical corners on the outside, but plays bigger than he is due to physicality and strong hands. Has the potential to be a small "X" due to his attributes, but may end up as a system dependent slot receiver. Plays well in the middle of the field and isn't afraid of contact. Gamer. High-points the football well. Player comp: Steve Smith. Grade: 7.5

4a) James Washington - Short, physical receiver with long arms, but isn't overly twitchy or fluid. Gets a lot of built in separation as a result of the offensive system at OSU. Good intermediate route-runner but doesn't possess deep speed. Tracks the ball well and has strong hands. Ran more routes than initially thought. Profiles as a good Z receiver and will have a role in the NFL. Willing blocker. Not sure how effective he would be as a redzone weapon. Player comp: Anquan Boldin. Grade: 7.4

4b) Anthony Miller - Releases well with exceptional footwork. Lines up all over the place in the Memphis system, which found creative ways to get him the ball. Looks small, and can get re-routed easily with physical coverage. Is he fast enough to force NFL defenders to play off of the line of scrimmage, or will he have to move inside to the slot? Great route-runner who creates easy separation. Absolutely destroyed UCLA in an early upset win, who couldn't find a way to slow him down. Former walk-on. Wins almost every intermediate route match-up, but doesn't possess elite deep speed. Another player who will be heavily judged by combine measurements. Player comp: Stefon Diggs. Grade: 7.4

6) Michael Gallup - Good size, but doesn't create much separation. Looked over-matched vs. Alabama. Strong hands. Average route-runner; not overly explosive in-and-out of his cuts, but sells them well. Good motor. Another Z receiver out of this class, who would profile as a NFL team's #2. One of the safest and most projectable receivers in this class; classic high ceiling, low floor player. Helps in run game.
Player comp: Brandon LaFell. Grade: 7.3

7a) Christian Kirk - Good speed and is explosive in a straight line (like on kickoffs and punt returns). Stiff hips. Doesn't sell routes well, and rounds off too many. Didn't develop as many expected. More of a gadget player in A&M's offense (ran a lot of screens and posts). Good size to play the slot in the right system, IF he works on his route acumen. Will have a role on a team early due to special teams play, but it may take a while before he can win against NFL corners. Could be absolutely dynamic in the right system (GB?), but possesses high bust potential. Player comp: Randall Cobb. Grade: 7.1

7b) Deon Cain - Physical receiver who possesses good size/speed combo. Tracks and fights for 50/50 balls well. Average-to-poor route-runner. Good hands, but isn't a fluid athlete. Failed to develop as Clemson's #1 receiver. Doesn't look very natural at times. Will be a good player if his intermediate route-running develops, but it doesn't appear that he has enough long speed to win consistently in that area. Player comp: Chad Williams. Grade: 7.1

9) Auden Tate - Good X profile. Match-up nightmare down the boundary and in the redzone. Tracks the ball well. Fairly fluid for a receiver his size. Ran a limited route tree. Questionable long speed, and isn't proficient enough with his routes to be effective yet in the intermediate area. Has a long way to go to be a useful NFL player. High bust candidate, but if he hits, his ceiling might be worth it. Small frame who can get re-routed. Doesn't play physical. Will be important for him to go to a team that develops receivers. Player comp: Chris Matthews. Grade: 6.8

10) Equanimeous St. Brown - Was as high as #1 on some people's boards entering the year, but didn't develop at all as expected. Great size, and is more nimble than expected. Doesn't create much separation. Needs to do a better a job of shielding defenders by using his massive size advantage. Doesn't really flash or do anything special. A glider as a runner. Another risky receiver with a projectable ceiling who will need to get in the right system. Suffered from inconsistent QB play for much of his career, and didn't seem to be properly utilized most of the time. Player comp: Tyrell Williams. Grade: 6.7

So that's my pre-draft list. I only do one more, where I take what I learned at the combine and NFL draft, and mesh it with my notes (although I like about 70% of my evals to come from my own film study). I should have RB's wrapped up within the next few weeks.

What's yours?

[Vcize]

Nice work, thanks for sharing!

Do you have a list of player grades from previous years so we can see how these prospects compare to prior classes?

[lukkynumber13]

This is awesome, thanks so much!

For now:

Sutton
Ridley
DJ Moore
ESB
Washington
-
Gallup
A Miller
Chark
Kirk
Cobbs
Pettis
Ateman

[Dynos]

wow really good work!! thanks for sharing!

for now this is my list. it will probably change, i didn't watch a lot of videos.

1-ridley
2-sutton
3-j.washington
4-dj moore
5-michael gallup and anthony miller
6-Christian Kirk
7-auden tate
8-deion cain
9-E-St-B

[AussieMate]

Thanks mate, love it when people share their re search. Let's me see a different view of a player. I'm slightly lower on Sutton and higher on esb but still pretty close to my opinions

[gunzwil guinea pigs]

thx ghosted, it will be funny after the draft to mix your list (talent) with opportunity to get fantasy value

[Ghosted]

Nice work, thanks for sharing!

Do you have a list of player grades from previous years so we can see how these prospects compare to prior classes?

I actually thought this would be a pretty cool series of threads to do this summer. They were part of the things that my wife strategically put in the attic when we moved, so I'd just have to go get them one day.

[bsp27]

I really don't understand how anyone can have Ridley in their top 5, let alone top 2. Old slot receivers with mediocre production shouldn't be drafted highly. But I guess the school he comes from earns him a defualt first round grade, lol.

[Ghosted]

I really don't understand how anyone can have Ridley in their top 5, let alone top 2. Old slot receivers with mediocre production shouldn't be drafted highly. But I guess the school he comes from earns him a defualt first round grade, lol.

Well, for starters, it's not a particularly strong WR class. And we don't exactly know that Ridley will man the slot; there have been more than a few who have been close to his projected size and skill that have played well at the X. Indy is going to be very important for him (he really needs to show a BMI around 25-26 and run close to the 4.35 time that reportedly ran in spring practices.

As for his production, he held a 35.7% market share. And that was with a lot of missed opportunity. That's plenty good. What's not is his TD rate (17.9). It's the same concern many had about his predecessor (Cooper), and it's a valid one.

I can't speak for everyone, but I have to assume that the team that he played for only served as a hindrance, due to the poor QB play. I definitely don't see him as an elite prospect at the position, but he has a very projectable skill-set (which is kind of lacking in this class). Again, Indy should tell us more if he has a higher upside than a low end wr2 (but most likely wr3) imo.

Who would be in your top 10?

[Ghosted]

This is awesome, thanks so much!

For now:

Sutton
Ridley
DJ Moore
ESB
Washington
-
Gallup
A Miller
Chark
Kirk
Cobbs
Pettis
Ateman

Nice, I thought I might be kind of on an island with Moore. I'm starting to find out there are actually quite a few that like him, though. I really wanted to like Chark, but I feel like he has little chance at his size and couldn't put him in my top 10.

What are some of the things you liked about St. Brown?

[bsp27]

I really don't understand how anyone can have Ridley in their top 5, let alone top 2. Old slot receivers with mediocre production shouldn't be drafted highly. But I guess the school he comes from earns him a defualt first round grade, lol.

Well, for starters, it's not a particularly strong WR class. And we don't exactly know that Ridley will man the slot; there have been more than a few who have been close to his projected size and skill that have played well at the X. Indy is going to be very important for him (he really needs to show a BMI around 25-26 and run close to the 4.35 time that reportedly ran in spring practices.

As for his production, he held a 35.7% market share. And that was with a lot of missed opportunity. That's plenty good. What's not is his TD rate (17.9). It's the same concern many had about his predecessor (Cooper), and it's a valid one.

I can't speak for everyone, but I have to assume that the team that he played for only served as a hindrance, due to the poor QB play. I definitely don't see him as an elite prospect at the position, but he has a very projectable skill-set (which is kind of lacking in this class). Again, Indy should tell us more if he has a higher upside than a low end wr2 (but most likely wr3) imo.

Who would be in your top 10?

If we're going based on market share, then qb play is irrelevant. That poor qb play affects every other receiver on bama, not just Ridley. 35% production is above average, but 23 year old players should be in at least the 80th percentile of market share production, not the 65th.

Sure, maybe his bmi suprises me, but he played in the slot in college, while being significantly older than his competition. Very rarely do you see un-dominant slot receivers suddenly become efficient X receivers at the NFL level.

I would comfortably have DJ Moore, Auden Tate, James Washington, Courtland Sutton, and Tre'Quan Smith ahead of Ridley, with Michael Gallup and DJ Chark being very close.

[Vcize]

I really don't understand how anyone can have Ridley in their top 5, let alone top 2. Old slot receivers with mediocre production shouldn't be drafted highly. But I guess the school he comes from earns him a defualt first round grade, lol.

Well, for starters, it's not a particularly strong WR class. And we don't exactly know that Ridley will man the slot; there have been more than a few who have been close to his projected size and skill that have played well at the X. Indy is going to be very important for him (he really needs to show a BMI around 25-26 and run close to the 4.35 time that reportedly ran in spring practices.

As for his production, he held a 35.7% market share. And that was with a lot of missed opportunity. That's plenty good. What's not is his TD rate (17.9). It's the same concern many had about his predecessor (Cooper), and it's a valid one.

I can't speak for everyone, but I have to assume that the team that he played for only served as a hindrance, due to the poor QB play. I definitely don't see him as an elite prospect at the position, but he has a very projectable skill-set (which is kind of lacking in this class). Again, Indy should tell us more if he has a higher upside than a low end wr2 (but most likely wr3) imo.

Who would be in your top 10?

If we're going based on market share, then qb play is irrelevant. That poor qb play affects every other receiver on bama, not just Ridley. 35% production is above average, but 23 year old players should be in at least the 80th percentile of market share production, not the 65th.

Sure, maybe his bmi suprises me, but he played in the slot in college, while being significantly older than his competition. Very rarely do you see un-dominant slot receivers suddenly become efficient X receivers at the NFL level.

I would comfortably have DJ Moore, Auden Tate, James Washington, Courtland Sutton, and Tre'Quan Smith ahead of Ridley, with Michael Gallup and DJ Chark being very close.

Well he was AJ Green/Julio Jones level dominant as a 21 year old freshman, so I think it's fair to question if his drop in dominance that coincided with Bama switching to a run first QB that doesn't throw much was really his fault.

Also why is there this stigma that he packed production in college. His production in college was 0rwtt similar to Julio's, with a worse passing QB to boot.

[Ghosted]

I really don't understand how anyone can have Ridley in their top 5, let alone top 2. Old slot receivers with mediocre production shouldn't be drafted highly. But I guess the school he comes from earns him a defualt first round grade, lol.

Well, for starters, it's not a particularly strong WR class. And we don't exactly know that Ridley will man the slot; there have been more than a few who have been close to his projected size and skill that have played well at the X. Indy is going to be very important for him (he really needs to show a BMI around 25-26 and run close to the 4.35 time that reportedly ran in spring practices.

As for his production, he held a 35.7% market share. And that was with a lot of missed opportunity. That's plenty good. What's not is his TD rate (17.9). It's the same concern many had about his predecessor (Cooper), and it's a valid one.

I can't speak for everyone, but I have to assume that the team that he played for only served as a hindrance, due to the poor QB play. I definitely don't see him as an elite prospect at the position, but he has a very projectable skill-set (which is kind of lacking in this class). Again, Indy should tell us more if he has a higher upside than a low end wr2 (but most likely wr3) imo.

Who would be in your top 10?

If we're going based on market share, then qb play is irrelevant. That poor qb play affects every other receiver on bama, not just Ridley. 35% production is above average, but 23 year old players should be in at least the 80th percentile of market share production, not the 65th.

Sure, maybe his bmi suprises me, but he played in the slot in college, while being significantly older than his competition. Very rarely do you see un-dominant slot receivers suddenly become efficient X receivers at the NFL level.

I would comfortably have DJ Moore, Auden Tate, James Washington, Courtland Sutton, and Tre'Quan Smith ahead of Ridley, with Michael Gallup and DJ Chark being very close.

I appreciate the point you're trying to make, but this just isn't true. There is much more opportunity created by air yards by Ridley that were negatively influenced by poor QB play due to his depth of target (and route).

Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one, because I don't want to make this a Ridley thread. But thanks for the view point; it's what I was hoping this thread would create.

[bsp27]

Well, for starters, it's not a particularly strong WR class. And we don't exactly know that Ridley will man the slot; there have been more than a few who have been close to his projected size and skill that have played well at the X. Indy is going to be very important for him (he really needs to show a BMI around 25-26 and run close to the 4.35 time that reportedly ran in spring practices.

As for his production, he held a 35.7% market share. And that was with a lot of missed opportunity. That's plenty good. What's not is his TD rate (17.9). It's the same concern many had about his predecessor (Cooper), and it's a valid one.

I can't speak for everyone, but I have to assume that the team that he played for only served as a hindrance, due to the poor QB play. I definitely don't see him as an elite prospect at the position, but he has a very projectable skill-set (which is kind of lacking in this class). Again, Indy should tell us more if he has a higher upside than a low end wr2 (but most likely wr3) imo.

Who would be in your top 10?

If we're going based on market share, then qb play is irrelevant. That poor qb play affects every other receiver on bama, not just Ridley. 35% production is above average, but 23 year old players should be in at least the 80th percentile of market share production, not the 65th.

Sure, maybe his bmi suprises me, but he played in the slot in college, while being significantly older than his competition. Very rarely do you see un-dominant slot receivers suddenly become efficient X receivers at the NFL level.

I would comfortably have DJ Moore, Auden Tate, James Washington, Courtland Sutton, and Tre'Quan Smith ahead of Ridley, with Michael Gallup and DJ Chark being very close.

I appreciate the point you're trying to make, but this just isn't true. There is much more opportunity created by air yards by Ridley that were negatively influenced by poor QB play due to his depth of target (and route).

Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one, because I don't want to make this a Ridley thread. But thanks for the view point; it's what I was hoping this thread would create.

what?

You are essentially implying that Ridley's market share was negatively impacted by his qb. Now, let's imagine that instead of Jalen Hurtz passing the ball to Alabama receivers, it was a different and better quarterback. This better and more accurate quarterback would not have increased the market share that Calvin Ridley got, because market share = Ridley's total yards / his offenses total yards. He would have improved the counting stats of every receiver equally, therefore meaning that Ridley's market share would remain the same.

Well, for starters, it's not a particularly strong WR class. And we don't exactly know that Ridley will man the slot; there have been more than a few who have been close to his projected size and skill that have played well at the X. Indy is going to be very important for him (he really needs to show a BMI around 25-26 and run close to the 4.35 time that reportedly ran in spring practices.

As for his production, he held a 35.7% market share. And that was with a lot of missed opportunity. That's plenty good. What's not is his TD rate (17.9). It's the same concern many had about his predecessor (Cooper), and it's a valid one.

I can't speak for everyone, but I have to assume that the team that he played for only served as a hindrance, due to the poor QB play. I definitely don't see him as an elite prospect at the position, but he has a very projectable skill-set (which is kind of lacking in this class). Again, Indy should tell us more if he has a higher upside than a low end wr2 (but most likely wr3) imo.

Who would be in your top 10?

If we're going based on market share, then qb play is irrelevant. That poor qb play affects every other receiver on bama, not just Ridley. 35% production is above average, but 23 year old players should be in at least the 80th percentile of market share production, not the 65th.

Sure, maybe his bmi suprises me, but he played in the slot in college, while being significantly older than his competition. Very rarely do you see un-dominant slot receivers suddenly become efficient X receivers at the NFL level.

I would comfortably have DJ Moore, Auden Tate, James Washington, Courtland Sutton, and Tre'Quan Smith ahead of Ridley, with Michael Gallup and DJ Chark being very close.

Well he was AJ Green/Julio Jones level dominant as a 21 year old freshman, so I think it's fair to question if his drop in dominance that coincided with Bama switching to a run first QB that doesn't throw much was really his fault.

Also why is there this stigma that he packed production in college. His production in college was 0rwtt similar to Julio's, with a worse passing QB to boot.

Not sure of any similarities between Ridley and Julio other than the college university they attended. They are completely different players with different breakout ages.

[Vcize]

If we're going based on market share, then qb play is irrelevant. That poor qb play affects every other receiver on bama, not just Ridley. 35% production is above average, but 23 year old players should be in at least the 80th percentile of market share production, not the 65th.

Sure, maybe his bmi suprises me, but he played in the slot in college, while being significantly older than his competition. Very rarely do you see un-dominant slot receivers suddenly become efficient X receivers at the NFL level.

I would comfortably have DJ Moore, Auden Tate, James Washington, Courtland Sutton, and Tre'Quan Smith ahead of Ridley, with Michael Gallup and DJ Chark being very close.

Well he was AJ Green/Julio Jones level dominant as a 21 year old freshman, so I think it's fair to question if his drop in dominance that coincided with Bama switching to a run first QB that doesn't throw much was really his fault.

Also why is there this stigma that he packed production in college. His production in college was 0rwtt similar to Julio's, with a worse passing QB to boot.

Not sure of any similarities between Ridley and Julio other than the college university they attended. They are completely different players with different breakout ages.

Ridley (3 years)
224 rec 2781 yds 19 TD

Julio (3 years)
179 rec 2653 yds 15 TD

As a pre-Hurts freshman Ridley put up 1045 yards receiving and 89 catches, which was better than any season AJ Green had in college and would have been Julio's second best college season.