Theory: 1.02 is going to jump in value

[Shoreline Steamers]

I don't agree with the idea that all picks rise in value. I do think it becomes easier to trade for (or trade away) picks starting in the later 1st round and back but that doesn't necessarily mean the value is higher. More likely than not the owner who was stubbornly refusing to move their picks suddenly realizes that there isn't anyone on the board they are interested in and they are just better off trading it away.

I can't tell you how many times this has happened to me (or I guess I've done this to myself). My picks this year are a mid and a late 1st, and I'm not sure what I'll do with them. Our league does go RB heavy on draft day so I might be too far down to grab someone I'm interested in and it's a position of need. Additionally, with shallow benches (and the number of rookies I added from 2017) I'm not wanting to jump ship on many players at this time.

Unless I'm OTC and another owner sees someone they have to have, I'm really not convinced my 1.08 will be more valuable in a few months than it is now. It's a "meh" level pick, as is the 1.12 I own. If I can't package them for a player I like, I may just end up kicking the can down the road for future 1st's and hope for some luck.

Picks at the top of the draft usually increase in value. Mid/late 1st's are variable depending on the depth of a particular class.

[DJB]

Picks 1. 02 - 1. 05 i suppose are pretty unclear at the moment. Someone is going to have a phenomenal combine and will emerge as the clear cut 1. 02. Im which case its value will rise.

I see what the op is saying and i agree.

[austing]

Here's the theory (and I just traded for 1.02 in Team 1 in sig. believing it!): 1.02 is going to gain jump in value far more than other picks.

Why? Two possible reasons:
1) A player other than Barkley (Guice, Sutton, anyone) really jumps out based on combines and/or draft and landing spot; and/or
2) Increased demand from owners looking to gain a top pick but who find the outrageous cost of acquiring 1.01 prohibitive, thus leaving 1.02 as the most likely-to-buy premium pick.

Thoughts?

I completely agree that targeting the #2 pick is key this year in ppr. I also feel that come rookie draft time, Sony Michel will be the clear #2 and frankly, is a bargain. Barkley is amazing but will likely be capped by a pass catching back some while michel will have more volume on the lucrative receiving side of the ppr work with potential to be a 3 down back with a pass heavy focus. Think ray rice or McCoy if things go well. It could happen.

[SnidelyWhiplash]

When a guy like Michel kills the combine the value of the 1.02 should rise. I pick 1.03 and hope Michel and Guice both prove to be upper tier prospects so that I can be assured a starting rb.

[ArrylT]

Well now that the Super Bowl is over - rookie season will hit full-steam ahead for those that it hasnt already ... so we'll soon see how this plays out - and of course the Combine will have some major impact. Unfortunately, or fortunately (depending on perspective), that means about 3 weeks of speculation and little else

[cweds]

I think the value of 1.02 will remain fairly constant relative to the other picks. 1.01 doesn't really have any room to increase in value or else it'll reach a point no one will be willing to pay. 1.02 is assumed to be Guice right now who I think many see as a mini tier of his own. To me, that suggests it's picks 1.03-1.05 that could increase in value. Whether that's RB's like Michel/RJII landing in good spots or tearing up the combine or one of the top receivers testing well or landing in a good spot. I just have a tough time seeing anyone else's situation improving SO drastically that they pass Guice by a significant margin to increase the value of 1.02.