Derrick Henry Thread - Is he still King Henry post injury?

[Vcize]

The risk to me with Henry is that he looked good because he was behind a good O-line and that line won't be good anymore by the time he takes over. He seems like the kind of guy that needs a good line to let him get a head of steam.

Taylor Lewan is 25, has 2 years left on his rookie contract, and will be a prime candidate for getting an extension next year. Jack Conklin is 22 and has 4 years left on his rookie contract. Ben Jones is 27 and has 3 years left on his contract. Titans line should be good for awhile. Plus, we are talking about a high draft pick and a record holding RB at the NCAA and HS level. He has looked good anytime he has run in his career. Sure it was always good lines in college and pros, but he can only control what he can control.

The risk to me with Henry is that he looked good because he was behind a good O-line and that line won't be good anymore by the time he takes over.

Why would the offensive line suddenly become bad? Conklin isn't going anywhere, Lewan is under contract two more years and Jones is under contract for a while too. Tennessee's going to keep investing in their line because they want to run heavy and protect Mariota. It shouldn't be a concern.

It seems like simply good or above average offensive lines seem to be variable beyond the very short term.

It's a group of 5 guys, not just one player. A lot of times all it takes is an injury to one of them or a contract dispute or a trade and then all of the sudden guys are being moved around on the line and nothing meshes anymore. I feel like short of the really elite lines a lot of times when we talk about a guy having a good line going into a season, within a year or two that strength has become a weakness.

This may be more of just a gut feeling though. I don't really have any metrics so I could be wrong.

I know contract isn't guaranteed but what if Murray does play 2 more years? He didn't really show any signs of wearing down last year. Passing game only going to get better and will take some workload off. Henry is bound to probably eat into his workload too allowing Murray to maybe play a little longer as well.

Murray averaged 4.87 YPC over the first 10 games and 3.5 over the last 6 games (102 carries in those 6). I think he did show some signs of wearing down (Henry was 4.96 YPC on 48 carries in 5 of those 6 games- he missed the game @Indy). Plus, backs with Murray's carry total tend to completely fall off of a cliff when they do wear down. Maybe it doesn't happen this season and they keep him going into next, but I would be quite surprised to see a guy with his style and carries being effective past 30.

Murray didn't wear down last year so much as he got injured. He picked up a nagging foot injury and his effectiveness dropped off pretty much immediately from there.

I do agree he seems prime for a fast dropoff when it happens though.

[Adidas95]

Do you guys think 2018 Henry will take over or will Murray still be the starter (or will he be cut by then)

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Do you guys think 2018 Henry will take over or will Murray still be the starter (or will he be cut by then)

On this one, we are playing probabilities. I think it is more likely that Henry enters 2018 as the starter than Murray, but it is probably a 55/45 bet in my mind right now.

ETA- but as you can see, I am one of the guys pushing the Henry hype, so weigh my opinion accordingly

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

It seems like simply good or above average offensive lines seem to be variable beyond the very short term.

It's a group of 5 guys, not just one player. A lot of times all it takes is an injury to one of them or a contract dispute or a trade and then all of the sudden guys are being moved around on the line and nothing meshes anymore. I feel like short of the really elite lines a lot of times when we talk about a guy having a good line going into a season, within a year or two that strength has become a weakness.

This may be more of just a gut feeling though. I don't really have any metrics so I could be wrong.

You are right than line quality can fluctuate from year to year, but Tennessee does not have a good to above average line, they have a Dallas-level line. I am as confident in Tennessee's line quality continuing as I am Dallas'.

And apart from the line, I think Henry is an equal talent to Cook and Mixon. There is a lot of room for the Titans line to regress before it gets to the state that the Vikings and Bengal's line is currently in.

On the Murray injury, Drop-offs happen in a lot of ways, including not being able to play effectively when nicked up. Henry was also playing injured at the time, and even missed the game against the weakest defense in the first game of that 6 game stretch. Henry and Murray were splitting reps about 2/1 early in favor of Murray in those games (with Henry generally getting more 4th quarter reps). Even just considering the first 3 quarters where they were both playing the same defense, Henry simply looked better to me down the stretch.

Obviously that is subjective, but that is what I am going on.

[gausec]

The hype around Henry is crazy, do I like him sure. But if I own him I'd much rather sell. I think barring injury Murray will have another great year, and if that happens I don't see Henry's value getting higher. It could be vary possible that Henry leaves Tennessee before he ever gets a shot to start.

I wouldn't buy stock in him, at least not yet, wait for people to start pumping the breaks. If the guy who owned him was a contender I'd try making a trade at the deadline hoping he would sell lower for a chance at the ship.

[keebs3]

I think if you don't buy him now, you won't be able to afford him this time next year.

I don't think I can afford him this year. His owner wants Njoku and my 2018 first for him- that's ridiculous, right?

Keebs

[Cherokee]

I think if you don't buy him now, you won't be able to afford him this time next year.

I don't think I can afford him this year. His owner wants Njoku and my 2018 first for him- that's ridiculous, right?

Keebs

Id give Njoku/Kamara/Perine/Howard/Engram/Hunt and an 18 1st for him without hesitation. Any of those combinations. Henry over Cook, McCaffery or Williams for me

[keebs3]

I think if you don't buy him now, you won't be able to afford him this time next year.

I don't think I can afford him this year. His owner wants Njoku and my 2018 first for him- that's ridiculous, right?

Keebs

Id give Njoku/Kamara/Perine/Howard/Engram/Hunt and an 18 1st for him without hesitation. Any of those combinations. Henry over Cook, McCaffery or Williams for me

That seems like overkill to me. What makes you feel he is worth a 1st plus the talent of Hunt or Perine?

Keebs

[prinefan]

Reminds me of Brandon Jacobs. He's a truck when he gets moving but... His entire collegiate career is a total of 16 receptions. He'll have a couple good years when he takes over but I wouldn't buy him myself.

[DJB]

I think if you don't buy him now, you won't be able to afford him this time next year.

100% agree with this.

The cost will be big but will be worth it

[kadun2]

I have Murray and I wish I had Henry. Too late for me to get him now. I just have to hope Murray continues to hold him off. I'm hoping for two years but realistically only expecting one. I'm thinking at some point late in this next season their roles may reverse.

[Krang]

Reminds me of Brandon Jacobs. He's a truck when he gets moving but... His entire collegiate career is a total of 16 receptions. He'll have a couple good years when he takes over but I wouldn't buy him myself.

16 catches his whole college career is nothing to be happy about, I very much agree, though he did have 13 catches on 15 targets in his first NFL season for 137 yards as a backup that only had 123 touches total, so I would say that's a promising sign that he's at the very least potentially capable of hauling in more if the opportunity is there.

[dm1129]

I have to admit I was not as high on Henry as most owners when he entered the league. Now having seen him play in the NFL, I have warmed to him a lot. I am surprised that his lack of receiving in college was mentioned in this thread. Henry showed to me in his rookie year that he is going to be a very good receiver out of the backfield. He catches with his hands and looks very natural doing so. With his size and speed, the ability to catch the ball in space is going to be very productive. Additionally, his situation is excellent. The TEN O-line is young and outstanding. Mariota is adjusting to the NFL very well and showing he has potential to be a perennial top 10 NFL QB. TEN drafted the top WR in this class in Corey Davis and a very underrated Taywan Taylor. In other words, the TEN passing game could improve significantly in the next few years and Henry will have a lot of space to run. All of this is going to allow Henry to play to his strengths in a very similar fashion to Zeke in DAL. Murray turns 30 next offseason. I am trying to acquire Henry right now.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

His entire collegiate career is a total of 16 receptions.

Eddie Lacy and TJ Yeldon weren't much more prolific in the receiving game at Bama. Lacy has proven to be a good receiving back in the NFL, and Yeldon's best asset so far has been his receiving. And neither of those guys played with a receiving specialist RB as good as Drake, as far as I remember. Don't get me wrong, I would rather have seen a 35 catch season out of Henry in College, but I think his lack of use there isn't necessarily indicative of his receiving ability in the NFL. He looked adequate in that aspect as a rookie, which is more important at this point for me.

That seems like overkill to me. What makes you feel he is worth a 1st plus the talent of Hunt or Perine?

Those guys have a lower ceiling and less chance of hitting their ceiling than Henry, IMO. I don't see top 5 upsides for those 2, and I think there is a pretty good chance neither runs away with their own backfield or cements themselves as more than a 1 o2 2 year starter. Henry, to me, seems like as sure a thing of hitting as a prospect can be and has top 5 upsides.

I would happily add a 2018 1st from strong-ish team to those guys or Njoku to get Henry.

[SteelCitizen]

In a 24 team league, I recently traded away '17 4th, '18 1st, '19 1st (both should be late), Zenner, Jesse James (before the Green release), AJ McCarron, Reshard Higgins --- for --- Demarco Murray, Derrick Henry, & Eric Berry. My team is a contender, but needed a little extra juice at the RB position. I should also mention that this league has 1/3 pt/carry on top of the standard PPR.

I feel pretty good about getting Murray to win now, and Henry for the future.