Hunter Henry

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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby ImaRounder » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:54 am

Madadamus, yes on almost every point. He is someone I see digressing this year, not progressing. I think he will be a fine TE in the league but like you said at a mid first price I just couldn't pass up the sell opportunity.

And there was a point about two months ago where his price was higher. Before people realized how talented this class was. It was before mcshay started saying OJ was a top 10 prospect possibly going to the Jets. His price continued to drop after the chargers drafted Mike Williams.

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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby Needalife » Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:07 am

In my startup this year, I traded Rookie 1.10 to move into the 4th round of the vet draft to get Henry in TE premium to give a sense of value. Then I later flipped him for 1.04 which I then flipped for 1.05/2.08.... In the end, I moved 1.10 for what ended up being Corey Davis @ 1.05 and Gerald Everett @ 2.08. Worked out well for me. Henry definitely has a lot of hype and now is a good time to cash in, though I do think he'll be quite good.
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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby ImaRounder » Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:08 am

Needalife wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:07 am In my startup this year, I traded Rookie 1.10 to move into the 4th round of the vet draft to get Henry in TE premium to give a sense of value. Then I later flipped him for 1.04 which I then flipped for 1.05/2.08.... In the end, I moved 1.10 for what ended up being Corey Davis @ 1.05 and Gerald Everett @ 2.08. Worked out well for me. Henry definitely has a lot of hype and now is a good time to cash in, though I do think he'll be quite good.
That's the type of sell high I'm talking about. Wow great value.

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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby moishetreats » Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:27 am

If you always "sold high" on players, then you'd never have any good players -- let alone studs -- on your team. You sell high when you think that the value is about to drop precipitously. When you have a stud (or likely stud player), you don't look to move him: you look to win a championship.

Keep Henry.
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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby ImaRounder » Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:29 am

moishetreats wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:27 am If you always "sold high" on players, then you'd never have any good players -- let alone studs -- on your team. You sell high when you think that the value is about to drop precipitously. When you have a stud (or likely stud player), you don't look to move him: you look to win a championship.

Keep Henry.
Yeah the difference is, I don't think Henry will ever be a stud.....?

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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby ajmyk » Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:07 am

Madadamus wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:46 am I think he is a glaring sell high as well, sold all of my shares this year. I was a fan of him, but when his ADP and value was creeping up into the mid 1st round it was clear to me it was time to cash out. We only paid late 2nd prices to acquire him last year in a much weaker class, getting pretty much any 1st is good value to me.

Look, I ike Henry a lot, but I don't think he is going to be a difference making TE. All of the top 3 TE's this year are much better prospects coming out, and I would even put Everett and Shaheen right there with him. People were all over his situation, and while it is nice, I don't think it's as good as it was years ago. Allen was hurt all of last year, and they were pretty weak at WR which is evident with a top 10 selection of Mike Williams. A healthy Allen is going to command targets. Mike Williams will certainly sap some of that red zone production, and I just think we were extrapolating Henry's stats if he was playing all the snaps and I just think it's not a smart thing to do.

Could he be the next Witten or dominant TE? Certainly, but I'd rather hedge my bet and cash out for a 1st in a deep class.

I sold him in two deals earlier this off-season:

Gave: Hunter Henry
Received: 2018 1st (could be anywhere but I project it in the 1.05ish range)

Gave: Hunter Henry, 2018 2nd (my own which is probably 2.04-2.06)
Received: 2018 1st (in the 1.07-1.12 range but I'd imagine it's closer to 1.07), Mike Gillislee
Well i wouldn't call that "hedging". Henry might not have a huge potential, but even if he just ends up a poor man Witten it's safer than any random 1st round pick. (Unless you sell the pick of course)
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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby maxhyde » Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:51 pm

ajmyk wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:07 am
Madadamus wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:46 am I think he is a glaring sell high as well, sold all of my shares this year. I was a fan of him, but when his ADP and value was creeping up into the mid 1st round it was clear to me it was time to cash out. We only paid late 2nd prices to acquire him last year in a much weaker class, getting pretty much any 1st is good value to me.

Look, I ike Henry a lot, but I don't think he is going to be a difference making TE. All of the top 3 TE's this year are much better prospects coming out, and I would even put Everett and Shaheen right there with him. People were all over his situation, and while it is nice, I don't think it's as good as it was years ago. Allen was hurt all of last year, and they were pretty weak at WR which is evident with a top 10 selection of Mike Williams. A healthy Allen is going to command targets. Mike Williams will certainly sap some of that red zone production, and I just think we were extrapolating Henry's stats if he was playing all the snaps and I just think it's not a smart thing to do.

Could he be the next Witten or dominant TE? Certainly, but I'd rather hedge my bet and cash out for a 1st in a deep class.

I sold him in two deals earlier this off-season:

Gave: Hunter Henry
Received: 2018 1st (could be anywhere but I project it in the 1.05ish range)

Gave: Hunter Henry, 2018 2nd (my own which is probably 2.04-2.06)
Received: 2018 1st (in the 1.07-1.12 range but I'd imagine it's closer to 1.07), Mike Gillislee
Well i wouldn't call that "hedging". Henry might not have a huge potential, but even if he just ends up a poor man Witten it's safer than any random 1st round pick. (Unless you sell the pick of course)
Yeah I think I disagree with the idea that if he isn't a stud sell him especially at positions that carry relatively little value outside elites (QB/TE). Now if anyone is offering top 6 picks for a TE in non TE premium leagues sell away. If you are swapping him for Howard/Engram/Njoku because "freak athlete" gets written beside them that risk is all on you and good luck.
As for the prediction of regression how about this scenario, Gates gets hurt misses 6-10 games and Allen is...well at this point the surprise will be Allen NOT getting hurt. Now the Chargers are down to a rookie WR and old reliable no flash Henry along with their backup WR's
Just as likely as a major regression imo and seems like Rivers has always been pretty good at finding a TE in the red zone...those are historical trends I would be more likely to use in predictions
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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby Servo » Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

This was posted to a TE thread a little while back:

"One statistical measure does seem to foreshadow a strong career: touchdown rate. Generally speaking, we were able to spot off the bat the handful of tight ends who were valued highly for their red zone ability – and those guys went on to strong NFL careers at an impressive rate. All told, the rookie TEs who (a) drew at least 30 targets and (b) posted touchdown rates of 10% or better boil down to the following 14 names:
HH
HH
HH.png (5.49 KiB) Viewed 543 times
Definitely some lackluster names here but also some of the best TEs in the game, so take it with some salt.

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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby Madadamus » Wed Jun 21, 2017 6:51 pm

ajmyk wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:07 am
Madadamus wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:46 am I think he is a glaring sell high as well, sold all of my shares this year. I was a fan of him, but when his ADP and value was creeping up into the mid 1st round it was clear to me it was time to cash out. We only paid late 2nd prices to acquire him last year in a much weaker class, getting pretty much any 1st is good value to me.

Look, I ike Henry a lot, but I don't think he is going to be a difference making TE. All of the top 3 TE's this year are much better prospects coming out, and I would even put Everett and Shaheen right there with him. People were all over his situation, and while it is nice, I don't think it's as good as it was years ago. Allen was hurt all of last year, and they were pretty weak at WR which is evident with a top 10 selection of Mike Williams. A healthy Allen is going to command targets. Mike Williams will certainly sap some of that red zone production, and I just think we were extrapolating Henry's stats if he was playing all the snaps and I just think it's not a smart thing to do.

Could he be the next Witten or dominant TE? Certainly, but I'd rather hedge my bet and cash out for a 1st in a deep class.

I sold him in two deals earlier this off-season:

Gave: Hunter Henry
Received: 2018 1st (could be anywhere but I project it in the 1.05ish range)

Gave: Hunter Henry, 2018 2nd (my own which is probably 2.04-2.06)
Received: 2018 1st (in the 1.07-1.12 range but I'd imagine it's closer to 1.07), Mike Gillislee
Well i wouldn't call that "hedging". Henry might not have a huge potential, but even if he just ends up a poor man Witten it's safer than any random 1st round pick. (Unless you sell the pick of course)
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I mean, I would. I invested in him with mid-to-late 2nd round picks in a much weaker class. Cashing out for a 1st is clear profit and gives you much more flexibility in my opinion. How many TE's fetch a 1st? Take a look at a guy like Zach Ertz, who profiles pretty similarly. They are the same size and although Henry is a little better metric wise, they both have the same draft pedigree and posted very similar rookie seasons. Ertz has progressed each year and has back to back 75 catch 800+ yard seasons and yet he doesn't get a 1st in my leagues.

I also wouldn't say ending up as a poor man's Witten is basically the worst case scenario. For 2017 he doesn't project to be a fantasy starter in standard leagues, so I'm not sure his value will increase any unless he nearly doubles his reception totals. As said above, with the influx of TE talent entering the league, I think his value will suffer because it was already propped up to begin with due to lack of options at the position.

So basically, I'll take a future 1st for him because a year from now I am sure you can buy him for that because the market for TE's is never a big one. Hell, I was on the clock in multiple leagues at 1.05 and was offered Kelce straight up. Obviously the 1.05 is a bit different this year, but still, my point is that his value is basically at his peak because we are projecting all this progression from him when he really just scored a lot of touchdowns as a rookie. He will have to severely outperform expectations in 2017 to rise in value in my opinion. I'd rather invest in a guy like Everett or Shaheen for a 3rd round value and flip Henry for a producer at RB or WR in his range, but that's just my strategy.
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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:55 am

GhostOfMasoli wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm This was posted to a TE thread a little while back:

"One statistical measure does seem to foreshadow a strong career: touchdown rate. Generally speaking, we were able to spot off the bat the handful of tight ends who were valued highly for their red zone ability – and those guys went on to strong NFL careers at an impressive rate. All told, the rookie TEs who (a) drew at least 30 targets and (b) posted touchdown rates of 10% or better boil down to the following 14 names:

HH.png

Definitely some lackluster names here but also some of the best TEs in the game, so take it with some salt.
This doesn't really tell me anything. The TE position is interesting though because there's not really a metric or stat that's reliable for long-term projection. And that's probably because so much more goes into it than catching the football. I think Henry is more polished at those things than a typical young TE is, which should be encouraging long-term. That's likely why his dynasty price is positionally high.

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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby ImaRounder » Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:09 am

That's kind of my point Cameron, what if we are seeing his peak? I get that Gates is stealing some snaps (probably closer to splitting snaps this year) but the majority of game changing TEs are above average athletically. Gronk, Kelce, Graham, Reed, Eifert are just different types of players when I watch them as opposed to Henry. Also, I have that 2nd or 3rd tier being a mile wide.

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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby Chris_R » Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:00 am

Madadamus wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:46 am

Gave: Hunter Henry, 2018 2nd (my own which is probably 2.04-2.06)
Received: 2018 1st (in the 1.07-1.12 range but I'd imagine it's closer to 1.07), Mike Gillislee
If you think now is the time to sell high why would you do this? So you moved up from 2.4 to 1.12 (projected) a year out and gave up potentially a top 5 dynasty TE to do so and only got Gillislee? I'd just rather trade him for a 1st to somebody if you wanted to move him like the other deal. This doesn't seem like like getting very much value.
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RB: Jonathan Taylor/James Robinson/D'Onta Foreman/Chris Hubbard/Keontay Ingram
WR: Jamar Chase/Diontae Johnson/Amron St Brown/Courtland Sutton/Rondale Moore/Donovan Peoples-Jones/Christian Watson
TE: Dalton Schultz/Gerald Everett/Greg Dulcich/Jeremy Ruckert

DL: Joey Bosa/Khalil Mack
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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby maxhyde » Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:46 am

I think this depends on what you are selling for. If you are getting mid-1sts in PPR leagues then it is fair. In TE premium I think you are probably breaking even at best...guys that show a knack for the end zone early are pretty good gambles at most positions imo but especially at TE where catches and yards are generally less.

Lots of those 2nd and 3rd tier TE's have not been very reliable to this point so yes the tier is a long and wide but lots of it is projected growth and guys we want to be good but haven't quite done it yet. Witten is still a better buy than most of those guys
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QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:32 am

ImaRounder wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:09 am That's kind of my point Cameron, what if we are seeing his peak? I get that Gates is stealing some snaps (probably closer to splitting snaps this year) but the majority of game changing TEs are above average athletically. Gronk, Kelce, Graham, Reed, Eifert are just different types of players when I watch them as opposed to Henry. Also, I have that 2nd or 3rd tier being a mile wide.
If you can get good value it's worth considering. But, from what I've seen of Henry I wouldn't sell him just to sell him either. His ceiling isn't Gronk, but he's a very high floor TE with all-around upside.

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Re: Hunter Henry

Postby clarion contrarion » Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:23 am

sloth8u wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:56 am if your in a knowledgeable league.....you may have missed your greatest opportunity if strictly looking at a sell high. my guess is that your looking more at "fair value" or "filling a hole" right now. (as mentioned above). i wouldnt let him get in the way of landing a stud right now....maybe you could call that a sell high if someone is overvaluing him. for most teams....they either were asking for too much a few weeks ago, and are still asking for the same, as his "value" has fallen....or are content to hold a te prospect in hopes of the next gronk. (we've all been chasing him for years :))

op...you really would have to show us something, so that we could give an opinion. i would gladly sell him for olsen and martin.... id likely take 1.5 for him in a heartbeat....but im not sure those offers are out there. and quite honestly, some hh owners would think that they are losing those deals.
pretty much this , drafted him 22nd 2:6 in a 16 teamer for sig team , I traded him last november with what turned out to be 1:16 for shady mccoy who helped me finish the deal . Regardless of how he turns out the skin is on the wall so no regrets .
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