Marlon mack

[kmbryant09]

Here's why I'm buying Marlon Mack:

Beyond the first 6 picks of this Rookie Draft, we're essentially throwing darts based on educated guesses and evaluations. When it comes to 2nd & 3rd round picks, I approach the draft a bit like the stock market - which commodities have a higher chance at increasing in value over the next 6 - 12 months? I figure that you can't go wrong flipping value year-after-year with the middle-tiered players on your roster, and that's essentially what we're looking at with 90% of Rookie picks after the 1st round.

Marlon Mack was 1 of 2 offensive players that the Colts selected this year, and the only skill position player. Not only do the Colts need immediate RB depth, but they need a future starter. Mack has home-run ability and breakaway speed that remind me of Jamaal Charles and Melvin Gordon (not comparing them as all-around RB's, just their ability to hit a big play). But the best thing about his situation is that he doesn't necessarily have to contribute much in 2017 in order for his stock to go up. Frank Gore is 34 years old and in the final year of his contract - likely his last season in the league. Even if he handles the load for the Colts this year, his departure will leave a gaping hole in their depth chart heading into 2018. That alone should allow Mack's value to see a slight bump similar to Paul Perkins, Wendell Smallwood (pre-Blount-signing), Jeremy Langford, Jerick McKinnon, Matt Jones, and many more RB's have seen over the past few years simply because the incumbent starter left the team.

But couple that scenario with some serious contributions from Mack in his rookie year? He'd be projected as the definitive starting RB on a top5 offense heading into his 2nd year. Now imagine if he contributes 175 / 850 / 5 this year as the compliment to Gore - your late 2nd round pick is now worth a mid-1st just 12 months later. And that doesn't even factor in a very plausible scenario that Gore gets injured this year - leaving Mack as the likely starter and potential league-winner in 2017.

*For the record, I know Mack has flaws in his game and I don't see him as any type of special talent at this point in his career. He's got to work on his fumbling issues and become more physical on inside-runs as well as more patience inside the tackles (hopefully he learns a thing or two from Gore). But this should be a good situation for him to land in, as he'll be running against light boxes - giving him more space to use his speed & athleticism as his game adjusts to the NFL*

So, which rookies are you buying, and why?

[schiewerma21]

I hate Marlon mack. But this is the best reason of why he's drafted at all. He is a zero long term.

No question the flip value could be huge... especially in season. And I think drafting rookies to flip is a good strategy as long as you are a hyper active owner and also know your leaguemates and what type of players they are.
Mack could fetch the highest penny of any second rounder.
Nice write up!

[maxhyde]

I agree...buying to flip I think is a great idea but he started off in my drafts as a very late 3rd type and ADP is now bumping up against Foreman/Godwin/Samuel. The risk is substantially higher now than it was a few weeks ago.
Reality yes IND needs a "long" term solution but seems like every year the Colts drafted and undrafted RB's start moving up the rookie ADP and every year they are dropped back back into the pool to add new rookies next year.

Maybe they get lucky and Mack can be that guy for them but considering the guys fantasy addicts love that the Colts passed on twice (or more) it doesn't seem to be a huge priority for them to find a RB.

[jcc6fd]

I agree...buying to flip I think is a great idea but he started off in my drafts as a very late 3rd type and ADP is now bumping up against Foreman/Godwin/Samuel. The risk is substantially higher now than it was a few weeks ago.
Reality yes IND needs a "long" term solution but seems like every year the Colts drafted and undrafted RB's start moving up the rookie ADP and every year they are dropped back back into the pool to add new rookies next year.

Maybe they get lucky and Mack can be that guy for them but considering the guys fantasy addicts love that the Colts passed on twice (or more) it doesn't seem to be a huge priority for them to find a RB.

That's the deal with Mack. Yes opportunity knocks but that doesn't change who he is: a fourth round rookie RB. Even if he's talented his draft capital is low enough that he could easily be replaced. The OP had mentioned similar backs who grew in value and even mentioned Smallwood pre-Blount signing. The Blount signing is evidence to the contrary of the OP's point, i.e. low talent late round draft picks can be replaced at any time. Doesn't mean hype won't grow until he's replaced. You just have to calculate when the best time to trade him is without being too late.

[gabes1919]

To pile on a little with Mack. I don't like the talent or the capital spent on him but the Colts very aggressively tried to get Josh Ferguson involved last year and couldn't. They obviously want to lower Gore's work load but weren't able to last year. Maybe they can this year, we'll see.

As for someone else I'm in on, Cooper Kupp for me. Yes he's a slot guy, he didn't show as super athletic in the combine, and he has questions of previous competition. I grant you all of that. However, the man dominated at the level he played. He played in a little pond but 428/6464/73 over 4 years is exactly what a big fish in a little pond should do. He is playing next to 2 WRs who have never exceeded 700 yards in an NFL season. His QB is young, inexperienced and playing with a bad O-line which would lead me to believe that he will be looking to target the short and intermediate routes, Kupp's specialties. And finally, Kupp was picked by the new coach who was previously the OC for the Redskins. The Skins were a strong offense the last 2 years that brought us a strong 2015 from Reed and a nice surprise in Crowder in both years. There is room for a guy like Cupp to do what they've done and 3rd round draft capital means he will probably get the chance. I don't know if Kupp will be able to start the year strong but once he figures out the NFL level a little bit, I like him to have a Jordan Matthews/Jarvis Landry type rookie year

[Vcize]

As for someone else I'm in on, Cooper Kupp for me. Yes he's a slot guy, he didn't show as super athletic in the combine, and he has questions of previous competition. I grant you all of that. However, the man dominated at the level he played. He played in a little pond but 428/6464/73 over 4 years is exactly what a big fish in a little pond should do. He is playing next to 2 WRs who have never exceeded 700 yards in an NFL season. His QB is young, inexperienced and playing with a bad O-line which would lead me to believe that he will be looking to target the short and intermediate routes, Kupp's specialties. And finally, Kupp was picked by the new coach who was previously the OC for the Redskins. The Skins were a strong offense the last 2 years that brought us a strong 2015 from Reed and a nice surprise in Crowder in both years. There is room for a guy like Cupp to do what they've done and 3rd round draft capital means he will probably get the chance. I don't know if Kupp will be able to start the year strong but once he figures out the NFL level a little bit, I like him to have a Jordan Matthews/Jarvis Landry type rookie year

Fair points, but you could replace the name "Cooper Kupp" with "Jarett Dillard" from a few years back and it would fit almost perfectly.

[Nanananananana]

I like Kupp also just because I got him in the 4th twice. The more I think about it I really think he's going to be a Jamison Crowder, which is basically a poor mans Jarvis Landry. When he was being hyped up couple months back as a possible first round pick I didn't like him but grabbing him in the fourth I was all about it and now I'm talking myself into him being pretty good.

[zelldawg26]

Samaje Perine because of his pedigree, balance, stats, and opportunity is all there. I don't see a UDFA (Rob Kelley) holding up the job in DC.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Mack seems like a Jeremy Langford type doesn't he. Rise in value, and if your smart you'll flip. But as said, his adp is rising I don't think you're going to profit much in a smart league, and the downside is he might suck and you just completely wasted a pick.

As a late round guy, I really like Adam Shaheen in the 3rd. He might hit, he might not. But if he hits it's going to be big. He's paired with a rookie qb (they're roommates lol) who often lean on their TE. He's got the draft pedigree, getting a top 45 NFL draft pick in the 3rd or 4th rounds of rookie drafts is ridiculous value. He's going after players drafted in the 4th or 5th round. And he's got the size and athleticism you want to be a difference make at the position.

[gabes1919]

As for someone else I'm in on, Cooper Kupp for me. Yes he's a slot guy, he didn't show as super athletic in the combine, and he has questions of previous competition. I grant you all of that. However, the man dominated at the level he played. He played in a little pond but 428/6464/73 over 4 years is exactly what a big fish in a little pond should do. He is playing next to 2 WRs who have never exceeded 700 yards in an NFL season. His QB is young, inexperienced and playing with a bad O-line which would lead me to believe that he will be looking to target the short and intermediate routes, Kupp's specialties. And finally, Kupp was picked by the new coach who was previously the OC for the Redskins. The Skins were a strong offense the last 2 years that brought us a strong 2015 from Reed and a nice surprise in Crowder in both years. There is room for a guy like Cupp to do what they've done and 3rd round draft capital means he will probably get the chance. I don't know if Kupp will be able to start the year strong but once he figures out the NFL level a little bit, I like him to have a Jordan Matthews/Jarvis Landry type rookie year

Fair points, but you could replace the name "Cooper Kupp" with "Jarett Dillard" from a few years back and it would fit almost perfectly.

Dillard did not have the same level of collegiate production nor the draft capital spent on him, nor did he have the same body type as Kupp. Nonetheless, I understand your point. There is a lot of risk that essentially makes Kupp a dart throw. Many many many players are productive in college and can't put it together in the NFL. Dynasty 1st rounders have about a 50% bust rate and it only gets worse from there. I just think a guy like Kupp seems to have a lot of things going for him, opportunity being one of those things, and that makes him worth taking a shot on.

[James McGhee]

Chris Godwin. His rookie ADP has dropped since the NFL draft due to landing in TB. Desean Jackson is 30 and won't be around forever. I think long term, Godwin has high end WR2 upside. He has elite athleticism, great hands and has the physicality to play inside or outside. I believe he will be a good WR in the league and for a mid to late 2nd, even 3rd from what I'm hearing, he's a great value.

[Goddard]

Chris Godwin. His rookie ADP has dropped since the NFL draft due to landing in TB. Desean Jackson is 30 and won't be around forever. I think long term, Godwin has high end WR2 upside. He has elite athleticism, great hands and has the physicality to play inside or outside. I believe he will be a good WR in the league and for a mid to late 2nd, even 3rd from what I'm hearing, he's a great value.

I've been on the Godwin bandwagon for a while now. I don't understand how he's falling so much in recent drafts. I have him as my WR3 in this class.

Kamara is another guy that I like and think his value took a hit due to his landing spot (which I don't really mind if you're willing to wait a year).

[sugbear65]

Im an Elijah McGuire fan. I think he is an underrated back in this class, and would take him over a lot of the RBs currently being drafted before him. He is a smooth receiver out of the backfield, and has dangerous acceleration. He can go from 0 to 60 in the blink of an eye, reminds me very much of D. Freeman in this regard. I think he has 3 down capabilities, but should definitely find a role as a 3rd down back at least. M. Forte looks like he has one foot out the door already, and B. Powell is solid but nothing spectacular. And given the Jets are probably going to be a dumpster fire this year, there may be extra incentive to give the young guys a longer look. So a role could easily develop this year for McGuire to get a crack at some decent snaps. Plus he is a punt returner as well, so may see some ST bonus points. For a guy that is going 3rd round or later, you could do a lot worse.

[RenMasters]

I like ArDarius Stewart. Expecially in PPR. Came from Bama. Went up against some of the best talent in the nation. Put up ok/decent numbers with Ok/decent QB play. Has speed, good hands, good agility, good vision. I see him as a slot receiver like Landry with less power but more speed. A lot of people will be turned off by the NYJ for good reason. QB is a mess. Although, Decker is old and there is talk he'll be gone after this year. The only other main young option is Enunwa. I expect them to struggle offensively, requiring them to throw the ball even more. Stewart stats could benefit from game flow/circumstance. I grabbed him with the 2.9 in our draft ahead of Godwin (already have Evans) and Carlos Henderson.

[Nanananananana]

All this love for the jets draft picks is getting me going. I think we have bottom 3 in the league offensive weapons so if Stewart or McGuire or Leggett could hit I'd be a happy guy.