Don't overthink NFL draft round

[ninotoreS]

You're using just the strict number of active starters and co-starters to try to prove your point. It doesn't tell us they are more likely to hit than before because you are disregarding the immense amount of flops of 4th-7th rounders and UDFAa.

The pool size is a lot larger than RBs drafted in the first three rounds.

You're ignoring the reality that it's immediately obvious to us here in dynasty which portion of the massive 4th-7th/undrafted pile actually warrants attention, because of context, measurables, depth-chart opportunity, coachspeak, etc and so forth. It's not just needles in a haystack.

From the outset, we know to dismiss the Tyler Vargas, and at the same time we know we shouldn't ignore the Thomas Rawls. Rawls had lots of threads on these forums before 2015 season started. Did Tyler Vargas? No, because we already knew he belonged in that other pile... which is a lot bigger than the 'good flier' pile.

[Telperion]

That ignores the reality that it's immediately obvious to us that are informed which portion of the 4th-7th/undrafted pile actually warrant attention. It's not just needles in a haystack.

These discussions always end up here, and I simply disagree that dynasty GM's are able to beat the odds.

From a roster standpoint, I have Bell, but also a bunch of other darts. It's okay to have 4 low odds darts, the issue is people fall in love with 1 dart and get convinced they'll beat the odds.

[ninotoreS]

the issue is people fall in love with 1 dart and get convinced they'll beat the odds

I agree. That is an issue. Not saying it ain't.

Anyway, y'all don't have to agree. Just trying to help.


To sum: just beware dogma, whether it's some sort of rigidly defined evaluation philosophy, or a fancy signature metric this or that website is trying to sell you, etc and so forth.

We only want to trust in these ideas because they do the heavy-lifting for us.

[FantasyFreak]

I think part of dynasty is going with the players you like. Just be realistic with the expectations you hold for them. Don't expect a 6th rounder to turn into a starter, but if he does, good for you. If you don't believe in Will Fuller, don't draft him. Trade back, pick a few guys you do like. Again, be realistic about your expectations about certain players, but I do not draft players I don't like, because I can handle missing on a guy I like more than a guy I didn't want in the first place, and picked because of his draft round, or ADP.

[kwade7575]

That ignores the reality that it's immediately obvious to us that are informed which portion of the 4th-7th/undrafted pile actually warrant attention. It's not just needles in a haystack.

These discussions always end up here, and I simply disagree that dynasty GM's are able to beat the odds.

From a roster standpoint, I have Bell, but also a bunch of other darts. It's okay to have 4 low odds darts, the issue is people fall in love with 1 dart and get convinced they'll beat the odds.

I agree with both of these views. So many of those RB's taken in rounds 4-7 that flop are already disregarded from most people's boards. We have a pretty good sense of who have the better odds of gaining value into the season. With that being said, too often those guys become so beloved by their owners thinking that they found the next late-round great. Those later round guys (Rawls, Langford, Ajayi) that see their value increase over the year can be packaged to get someone who is more likely to retain success

[Lotto4Life]

43% of these starters/co-starters were taken in the 4th round or later (17 of 40).

At least 40% of them (16 of 40) will finish outside RB2 territory. Not that you can't win it with an RB2 and RB3 as your top to RBs.

[Telperion]

Also nobody is espousing the view that you should never roster or count on late round or UDFA RB's. Arian Foster and Lamar Miller for example are obvious exceptions.

The point though is that you should never expect those players to succeed. Let them succeed on someone else's roster. If they show that they are consistent producers that break the odds, sure, treat them like any other RB art that point.

Yes, you'll miss on getting them cheap, but you'll also miss falling into the far more likely other trap of falling for the numerous other guys who never make it.

Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk

[Pullo Vision]

Crypto-bump relevant this time of year.

[Jason3123]

Telperion disappeared...wonder what happened to him.

[Jason3123]

RB's taken in the 2nd round who played their rookie season at 21 years old:

Clinton Portis
Le'Veon Bell
MJD
Joe Mixon
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice

2018:
Derrius Guice
Ronald Jones
Kerryon Johnson

[lukkynumber13]

RB's taken in the 2nd round who played their rookie season at 21 years old:

Clinton Portis
Le'Veon Bell
MJD
Joe Mixon
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice

2018:
Derrius Guice
Ronald Jones
Kerryon Johnson

Ray Rice had a short career. Direct correlation here. Young RBs who get drafted in the 2nd round are statistically more likely to hit their fiancé.

#AvoidGuice

[Jason3123]

RB's taken in the 2nd round who played their rookie season at 21 years old:

Clinton Portis
Le'Veon Bell
MJD
Joe Mixon
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice

2018:
Derrius Guice
Ronald Jones
Kerryon Johnson

Ray Rice had a short career. Direct correlation here. Young RBs who get drafted in the 2nd round are statistically more likely to hit their fiancé.

#AvoidGuice

Lol. I didn't notice that.