I like Evans more than Watkins... here is why:

[JoshGordonsDealer]

1. Size. I realize that plenty of big targets have busted, but not many of them were taken in the top 10.

2. Mentor. He has been compared to VJax for forever. And now he gets to learn from him. This is one of the problems I have with Sammy. He is expected to be THE guy and I don't know that he can be right away.

3. Competition. Evans had elite production against the SEC. Remember him tearing apart an Alabama defense littered with NFL talent? Watkins never did that.

4. He is FAST for someone that looks like a tank.

[Krang]

I will be curious to see what Evans does without a QB who constantly extends plays by running all over the place, causing coverage breakdowns. I'm not saying he isn't or won't be good, just that I'm curious how much Manziel's escapability contributed to Evans getting open. If a corner isn't asked to cover him for 7-10 seconds, will he be as effective?

[JoshGordonsDealer]

I will be curious to see what Evans does without a QB who constantly extends plays by running all over the place, causing coverage breakdowns. I'm not saying he isn't or won't be good, just that I'm curious how much Manziel's escapability contributed to Evans getting open. If a corner isn't asked to cover him for 7-10 seconds, will he be as effective?

I think it will take adjusting, but you could make the argument that a true NFL QB arm will help him. He makes some insane catches in traffic.

[MARKinMI]

lots of people like Evans more than Watkins. I think they're wrong but to each their own. They all point to size like Watkins is some 5'7" 170lb player lol.

[dlf_jules]

1. Size. I realize that plenty of big targets have busted, but not many of them were taken in the top 10.

WRs taken in the top 10 have a very high hit rate, regardless of size. There's no good data to indicate that a big WR taken in the top 10 is likely to perform better than a small one.

[Payton34]

3. Competition. Evans had elite production against the SEC. Remember him tearing apart an Alabama defense littered with NFL talent? Watkins never did that.

.

Ohio State says, "What?".

[johnyo]

Hmm... just for fun let's say we set an arbitrary boundary at 6'3, saying above is big, below is small, and look at top 10 WRs the past several years

2013 - Tavon Austin, small, meh
2012 - Justin Blackmon, small, bust
2011 - AJG, big, hit
2011 - Julio, big, hit
2009 - DHB, small, bust
2009 - Crabtree, small, hit
2007 - Megatron, big, hit
2007 - Ted Ginn Jr, small, bust
2005 - Braylon Edwards, small, meh
2005 - Troy Williamson, small, bust
2005 - Mike Williams, big, bust

Give me the "big" guys on this list every time! Sure this is super hand-wavy, but I disagree with the Jules guy above saying there's "no good data" to support OP's point.

Given this though, I still like Watkins more than Evans...

[JoshGordonsDealer]

3. Competition. Evans had elite production against the SEC. Remember him tearing apart an Alabama defense littered with NFL talent? Watkins never did that.

.

Ohio State says, "What?".

And I am a diehard OSU fan. I watched Watkins dissect my team and I prefer evans.

[dlf_jules]

Hmm... just for fun let's say we set an arbitrary boundary at 6'3, saying above is big, below is small, and look at top 10 WRs the past several years

2013 - Tavon Austin, small, meh
2012 - Justin Blackmon, small, bust
2011 - AJG, big, hit
2011 - Julio, big, hit
2009 - DHB, small, bust
2009 - Crabtree, small, hit
2007 - Megatron, big, hit
2007 - Ted Ginn Jr, small, bust
2005 - Braylon Edwards, small, meh
2005 - Troy Williamson, small, bust
2005 - Mike Williams, small, meh

Give me the "big" guys on this list every time! Sure this is super hand-wavy, but I disagree with the Jules guy above saying there's "no good data" to support OP's point.

Given this though, I still like Watkins more than Evans...

I think we have different standards for "good data".

1. Mike Williams was 6'5", 230 lbs., and a colossal bust.
2. Justin Blackmon's bust status has nothing to do with his talent. He put up a very good rookie season and was impressive over a four-game stretch last year.
3. Braylon Edwards was 6'3". Your "arbitrary boundary" conveniently excludes him.
4. A sample size of 11 is ridiculously small. Far too small to yield any meaningful results.

And I won't count this one, but it's a little tough to count DHB against the small WRs when no human being on earth (outside of the Oakland front office) thought he should have been a top-10 pick.

[MR ROURKE]

They are different WR's. Watkins is a great play maker. Evans is huge target with a colossal catch radius, but I wouldn't say he's a playmaker on the level of Watkins in the open field or anything like that. Evans has only been playing WR for 3 years, so he should have a lot of improving to do to raise his stock. I would think there is an argument for someone to chose either, but Watkins clearly has more WR skills and play making ability at this time for me. Depends what you want in your WR and what you think they will be in the coming years.

[RobertBobson]

Blackmon isn't a bust, either. When he's been on the field, he's very productive on absolutely awful teams.

[johnyo]

Yea spaced on Williams. And it's handwavy but I believe OP's point #1 is valid. Another thing that could affect these two guys is one coming in and being top dog and another having a mentor. Not sure which is better though.

[JoshGordonsDealer]

Yea spaced on Williams. And it's handwavy but I believe OP's point #1 is valid. Another thing that could affect these two guys is one coming in and being top dog and another having a mentor. Not sure which is better though.

I think it depends on the mentor and the player. I think of Michael Floyd and Larry Fitz. Floyd had some ???s but Fitz is bringing him along nicely. Evans and Jackson seem like a similar pair, albeit, one with less talent. I think watkins will have more FF points than Evans this year. I think it may be a different story in 3.

[TommyL31]

Yea spaced on Williams. And it's handwavy but I believe OP's point #1 is valid. Another thing that could affect these two guys is one coming in and being top dog and another having a mentor. Not sure which is better though.

I think it depends on the mentor and the player. I think of Michael Floyd and Larry Fitz. Floyd had some ???s but Fitz is bringing him along nicely. Evans and Jackson seem like a similar pair, albeit, one with less talent. I think watkins will have more FF points than Evans this year. I think it may be a different story in 3.

Agree on the mentorship thing. Some players (like Megatron and AJ Green) don't really need mentors. It's not even a question of overall talent but more of experience, college offense, maturity and a host of other factors. I don't think Sammy needs a mentor to succeed. Not sure if Evans does but it likely can't hurt.

On OP's original point, I'll agree that given two similarly talented WRs I'll take the tall, physical specimen every day of the week but I just think that Sammy is more talented. Evans was drafted so high partially because he is as tall as he is. If Sammy were as big as Evans AND as good a football player I think the bidding war for him would have been out of control.

[JoshGordonsDealer]

Yea spaced on Williams. And it's handwavy but I believe OP's point #1 is valid. Another thing that could affect these two guys is one coming in and being top dog and another having a mentor. Not sure which is better though.

I think it depends on the mentor and the player. I think of Michael Floyd and Larry Fitz. Floyd had some ???s but Fitz is bringing him along nicely. Evans and Jackson seem like a similar pair, albeit, one with less talent. I think watkins will have more FF points than Evans this year. I think it may be a different story in 3.

Agree on the mentorship thing. Some players (like Megatron and AJ Green) don't really need mentors. It's not even a question of overall talent but more of experience, college offense, maturity and a host of other factors. I don't think Sammy needs a mentor to succeed. Not sure if Evans does but it likely can't hurt.

On OP's original point, I'll agree that given two similarly talented WRs I'll take the tall, physical specimen every day of the week but I just think that Sammy is more talented. Evans was drafted so high partially because he is as tall as he is. If Sammy were as big as Evans AND as good a football player I think the bidding war for him would have been out of control.

I agree with you on all points... But... Sammy isn't that tall. lol