Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby jtk1234 » Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:40 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 02, 2021 3:26 pm
jtk1234 wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:27 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:15 pm

I chase volume. I do NOT chase touchdowns

They are about as unsticky of a stat as it gets and extremely hard to predict year to year

Also you conveninently leave out that Edwards was the backup for the listed games

JK Dobbins is not there

Kareem Hunt was the RB10 based off a ridiculously high TD rate. Those will never be the types of players I go after the next year (WRs or RBs)
You aren’t making any sense, your original line of reasoning for Edwards over Hunt was goal line touches, but now you aren’t factoring touchdowns, which is it?

And if you want to go the volume route - Hunt had 198 carries (good for 11th) and like 240 total touches, I don’t think you have a grasp on how he was utilized in that offense, him and Chubb essentially split the share of offensive touches when they were both healthy, another factor working in Hunts favor as I mention in my original post that Chubb is injury prone and Hunt becomes a top tier RB if he gets hurt.

And let’s be honest, even though the Ravens are extremely run heavy, Jackson is the de facto RB1 in that offense and in a best case scenario, Edwards gets like 200 carries and catches a handful of balls, so Hunt is proven and we know his role, and its a good role that produced an RB10 finish last year, Edwards role is still a question mark. There’s no way Edwards comes close to Hunt imho.
I have never and will never use TDs as logic for backing a player

And yet Hunt was useless last year when he didn't score TDs. Maybe the most TD dependent "RB10" finish I've ever seen

Except Chubb got hurt and Hunt....produced the same as before Chubb's injury

No idea where you're getting the Jackson RB1 comment. Yeah there are games where he gets a ton of carries--but he is in no way a goal line specialist or vulture like Cam Newton

RB1 on the highest volume rushing offense in the league beats the TD dependent RB2 on an offense that IMO is due for greater pass volume (something we already saw in the 2nd half of last season)
You can’t have it both ways man, you either like
Gus because he gets red zone opportunities, in which case you should like Hunt more, or you don’t like him, you can’t pick and choose. But since you don’t like TDs let’s actually check a few facts.

Jackson had the most rushing attempts on the team last year, he will have the most this year as well, he is the de facto RB1, also he had more rushing TDs than Edwards so he 100 percent cuts into Edwards opportunity share and upside. I don’t understand how you can say otherwise.

The Ravens had 555 rushing attempts last year, split between three primary rushers, the Browns had 495 and only two primary rushers. Whether you like it or not Edwards is in an RBBC situation, I’m guessing he gets somewhere in the range of 200 carries this year, Hunt probably gets less but is heavily involved in the passing game, I expect in the range of 40 catches.

Kareem Hunt is a more talented back with a defined role, he also catches passes so he adds value there, Edwards has like 20 career receptions.

Kareem Hunt had 240 touches and got 11 TDs, his TD rate was lower than several top RBs, his adjusted touchdown rate according to fantasy pros this year is 10 so he had one touchdown more than he was supposed to, quite the regression!

Again, give me a know commodity any day with significantly more upside, Hunt, not close. Come back with facts when you find them.
Last edited by jtk1234 on Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Jackson, J Hurts, K Mond
Singletary, Cohen, R Stevenson, Hubbard, Jackson, Rountree, K Ngwangu, T Jones Jr
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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:49 pm

jtk1234 wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:40 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 02, 2021 3:26 pm
jtk1234 wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:27 pm

You aren’t making any sense, your original line of reasoning for Edwards over Hunt was goal line touches, but now you aren’t factoring touchdowns, which is it?

And if you want to go the volume route - Hunt had 198 carries (good for 11th) and like 240 total touches, I don’t think you have a grasp on how he was utilized in that offense, him and Chubb essentially split the share of offensive touches when they were both healthy, another factor working in Hunts favor as I mention in my original post that Chubb is injury prone and Hunt becomes a top tier RB if he gets hurt.

And let’s be honest, even though the Ravens are extremely run heavy, Jackson is the de facto RB1 in that offense and in a best case scenario, Edwards gets like 200 carries and catches a handful of balls, so Hunt is proven and we know his role, and its a good role that produced an RB10 finish last year, Edwards role is still a question mark. There’s no way Edwards comes close to Hunt imho.
I have never and will never use TDs as logic for backing a player

And yet Hunt was useless last year when he didn't score TDs. Maybe the most TD dependent "RB10" finish I've ever seen

Except Chubb got hurt and Hunt....produced the same as before Chubb's injury

No idea where you're getting the Jackson RB1 comment. Yeah there are games where he gets a ton of carries--but he is in no way a goal line specialist or vulture like Cam Newton

RB1 on the highest volume rushing offense in the league beats the TD dependent RB2 on an offense that IMO is due for greater pass volume (something we already saw in the 2nd half of last season)


Jackson had the most rushing attempts on the team last year, he will have the most this year as well, he is the de facto RB1, also he had more rushing TDs than Edwards so he 100 percent cuts into Edwards opportunity share and upside. I don’t understand how you can say otherwise.

I disagree with this. I think Edwards will have more carries. Edwards should be well above 200 carries, and Lamar has never come close to that. I expect Gus to exceed 250 carries, health permitting.
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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby jtk1234 » Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:52 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:49 pm
jtk1234 wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:40 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 02, 2021 3:26 pm

I have never and will never use TDs as logic for backing a player

And yet Hunt was useless last year when he didn't score TDs. Maybe the most TD dependent "RB10" finish I've ever seen

Except Chubb got hurt and Hunt....produced the same as before Chubb's injury

No idea where you're getting the Jackson RB1 comment. Yeah there are games where he gets a ton of carries--but he is in no way a goal line specialist or vulture like Cam Newton

RB1 on the highest volume rushing offense in the league beats the TD dependent RB2 on an offense that IMO is due for greater pass volume (something we already saw in the 2nd half of last season)


Jackson had the most rushing attempts on the team last year, he will have the most this year as well, he is the de facto RB1, also he had more rushing TDs than Edwards so he 100 percent cuts into Edwards opportunity share and upside. I don’t understand how you can say otherwise.

I disagree with this. I think Edwards will have more carries. Edwards should be well above 200 carries, and Lamar has never come close to that. I expect Gus to exceed 250 carries, health permitting.
250 means he’d essentially absorb every vacated carry from Dobbins and take carries away from Jackson, that makes no sense.
Jackson, J Hurts, K Mond
Singletary, Cohen, R Stevenson, Hubbard, Jackson, Rountree, K Ngwangu, T Jones Jr
Claypool, Sutton, Golladay, AB, Pittman, Bateman, Gage, Kirk, Miller
Higbee, Jarwin, McKitty, B Jordan

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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby The MAC Machine » Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:06 pm

jtk1234 wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:52 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:49 pm
jtk1234 wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:40 pm



Jackson had the most rushing attempts on the team last year, he will have the most this year as well, he is the de facto RB1, also he had more rushing TDs than Edwards so he 100 percent cuts into Edwards opportunity share and upside. I don’t understand how you can say otherwise.

I disagree with this. I think Edwards will have more carries. Edwards should be well above 200 carries, and Lamar has never come close to that. I expect Gus to exceed 250 carries, health permitting.
250 means he’d essentially absorb every vacated carry from Dobbins and take carries away from Jackson, that makes no sense.
ok first Gus has carried the ball 130 times each year for the last several years. 250 rushes would only be another 120 rushes. Secondly, this leads me to the question, how many rushes did you expect Dobbins to receive this year?

I think most people were thinking at least 200 and I imagine Gus's numbers wouldnt have gone down because of it. I could easily see the split currently being 250-100, whereas it may have been 220-130 before the Dobbins injury. The assumption that Gus would "absorb every vacated carry from Dobbins" assumes that Dobbins' workload wasnt going to expand (which we all know is untrue).
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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby StripesOfKC » Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:12 pm

jtk1234 wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:40 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 02, 2021 3:26 pm
jtk1234 wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:27 pm

You aren’t making any sense, your original line of reasoning for Edwards over Hunt was goal line touches, but now you aren’t factoring touchdowns, which is it?

And if you want to go the volume route - Hunt had 198 carries (good for 11th) and like 240 total touches, I don’t think you have a grasp on how he was utilized in that offense, him and Chubb essentially split the share of offensive touches when they were both healthy, another factor working in Hunts favor as I mention in my original post that Chubb is injury prone and Hunt becomes a top tier RB if he gets hurt.

And let’s be honest, even though the Ravens are extremely run heavy, Jackson is the de facto RB1 in that offense and in a best case scenario, Edwards gets like 200 carries and catches a handful of balls, so Hunt is proven and we know his role, and its a good role that produced an RB10 finish last year, Edwards role is still a question mark. There’s no way Edwards comes close to Hunt imho.
I have never and will never use TDs as logic for backing a player

And yet Hunt was useless last year when he didn't score TDs. Maybe the most TD dependent "RB10" finish I've ever seen

Except Chubb got hurt and Hunt....produced the same as before Chubb's injury

No idea where you're getting the Jackson RB1 comment. Yeah there are games where he gets a ton of carries--but he is in no way a goal line specialist or vulture like Cam Newton

RB1 on the highest volume rushing offense in the league beats the TD dependent RB2 on an offense that IMO is due for greater pass volume (something we already saw in the 2nd half of last season)
You can’t have it both ways man, you either like
Gus because he gets red zone opportunities, in which case you should like Hunt more, or you don’t like him, you can’t pick and choose. But since you don’t like TDs let’s actually check a few facts.


Jackson had the most rushing attempts on the team last year, he will have the most this year as well, he is the de facto RB1, also he had more rushing TDs than Edwards so he 100 percent cuts into Edwards opportunity share and upside. I don’t understand how you can say otherwise.

The Ravens had 555 rushing attempts last year, split between three primary rushers, the Browns had 495 and only two primary rushers. Whether you like it or not Edwards is in an RBBC situation, I’m guessing he gets somewhere in the range of 200 carries this year, Hunt probably gets less but is heavily involved in the passing game, I expect in the range of 40 catches.

Kareem Hunt is a more talented back with a defined role, he also catches passes so he adds value there, Edwards has like 20 career receptions.

Kareem Hunt had 240 touches and got 11 TDs, his TD rate was lower than several top RBs, his adjusted touchdown rate according to fantasy pros this year is 10 so he had one touchdown more than he was supposed to, quite the regression!

Again, give me a know commodity any day with significantly more upside, Hunt, not close. Come back with facts when you find them.
I have never had it both ways. I will never use TDs as an argument to back a player--ever

And now one of those runners is gone? I don't see what's hard about this. Are you living in some dream world where JK Dobbins is still there and the RB1?

Funny you point out facts when you overlooked Hunt's production staying...wait for it the same...when Nick Chubb was out

Hell actually he averaged slightly fewer fantasy points with Chubb--that a fact for you or something you ignore because it doesn't fit the narrative?

His "RB10 finish" like Jacobs' was a product of staying healthy while a ton of other fantasy RBs went down (a skill I admit but not exactly reflective of production)

His fantasy PPG rank?

RB21--while scoring 11 TDs...as a backup RB

More inconvenient facts

Not to mention that Browns passing volume the second half of the season:

After their bye week besides 2 games played in monsoon like conditions (Texans, Eagles) as Baker found his rhythm, the Browns stepped up to over 37 pass attempts per game (trend that continued into the playoffs)--despite missing their WR1 in OBJ

I don't see the highest volume rushing offense here if forecasting for next season

Did you prefer Hunt over JK Dobbins before injury? (serious question)

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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby jtk1234 » Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:43 am

StripesOfKC wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:12 pm
jtk1234 wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:40 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 02, 2021 3:26 pm

I have never and will never use TDs as logic for backing a player

And yet Hunt was useless last year when he didn't score TDs. Maybe the most TD dependent "RB10" finish I've ever seen

Except Chubb got hurt and Hunt....produced the same as before Chubb's injury

No idea where you're getting the Jackson RB1 comment. Yeah there are games where he gets a ton of carries--but he is in no way a goal line specialist or vulture like Cam Newton

RB1 on the highest volume rushing offense in the league beats the TD dependent RB2 on an offense that IMO is due for greater pass volume (something we already saw in the 2nd half of last season)
You can’t have it both ways man, you either like
Gus because he gets red zone opportunities, in which case you should like Hunt more, or you don’t like him, you can’t pick and choose. But since you don’t like TDs let’s actually check a few facts.


Jackson had the most rushing attempts on the team last year, he will have the most this year as well, he is the de facto RB1, also he had more rushing TDs than Edwards so he 100 percent cuts into Edwards opportunity share and upside. I don’t understand how you can say otherwise.

The Ravens had 555 rushing attempts last year, split between three primary rushers, the Browns had 495 and only two primary rushers. Whether you like it or not Edwards is in an RBBC situation, I’m guessing he gets somewhere in the range of 200 carries this year, Hunt probably gets less but is heavily involved in the passing game, I expect in the range of 40 catches.

Kareem Hunt is a more talented back with a defined role, he also catches passes so he adds value there, Edwards has like 20 career receptions.

Kareem Hunt had 240 touches and got 11 TDs, his TD rate was lower than several top RBs, his adjusted touchdown rate according to fantasy pros this year is 10 so he had one touchdown more than he was supposed to, quite the regression!

Again, give me a know commodity any day with significantly more upside, Hunt, not close. Come back with facts when you find them.
I have never had it both ways. I will never use TDs as an argument to back a player--ever

And now one of those runners is gone? I don't see what's hard about this. Are you living in some dream world where JK Dobbins is still there and the RB1?

Funny you point out facts when you overlooked Hunt's production staying...wait for it the same...when Nick Chubb was out

Hell actually he averaged slightly fewer fantasy points with Chubb--that a fact for you or something you ignore because it doesn't fit the narrative?

His "RB10 finish" like Jacobs' was a product of staying healthy while a ton of other fantasy RBs went down (a skill I admit but not exactly reflective of production)

His fantasy PPG rank?

RB21--while scoring 11 TDs...as a backup RB

More inconvenient facts

Not to mention that Browns passing volume the second half of the season:

After their bye week besides 2 games played in monsoon like conditions (Texans, Eagles) as Baker found his rhythm, the Browns stepped up to over 37 pass attempts per game (trend that continued into the playoffs)--despite missing their WR1 in OBJ

I don't see the highest volume rushing offense here if forecasting for next season

Did you prefer Hunt over JK Dobbins before injury? (serious question)
Man, you really like to cherry pick stats for when it suits you.

First off, there is no universe where Edwards gets to 250 carries, you are skirting basic math here, just because Dobbins probably got a larger share of the carries if he stays healthy doesn't mean they go from 550ish attempts to 670, those extra 135 rushing attempts Dobbins had last year don't get added ONTO the total they get divided in some sort of ratio.

I am saying it's highly unlikely that Edwards gets every single one of those, plus some from Jackson, my best guess is that Jackson gets like 10 - 15 of those carries, Williams gets maybe 50 - 60 (3 touches per game for the RB2 sounds about right here) and Edwards gets the rest which would put him solidly around 200 rushing attempts.

There were only 3 backs with 250 rushing attempts last year, you are living in a dream world if you think Edwards is going to hit that mark. The Ravens use a RBBC approach, that doesn't change because their best back goes down, if anything it skews more towards spreading the wealth around. Edwards has never had a season with over 144 carries, this also goes against him.

I liked Dobbins going into this season, I think he's super talented and had him as a high end RB2 just behind dudes like Mixon, Robinson and CEH who are either going to get RB1 volume or are in a better offense. My problem with Edwards, which you still haven't addressed, is that he is in and RBBC and doesn't even have a defined role yet. Hunt is in that RB2 range and will always have a high floor because of his pass catching abilities, he's a proven RB1 if he ends up in a situation where hes the lead back and there is a non-zero percent chance thats happening. Not to mention, Hunt is just a better real-life running back than Edwards. You seem to be willfully ignoring a lot of FACTS here so I will agree to disagree.
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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:17 am

jtk1234 wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:52 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:49 pm
jtk1234 wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:40 pm



Jackson had the most rushing attempts on the team last year, he will have the most this year as well, he is the de facto RB1, also he had more rushing TDs than Edwards so he 100 percent cuts into Edwards opportunity share and upside. I don’t understand how you can say otherwise.

I disagree with this. I think Edwards will have more carries. Edwards should be well above 200 carries, and Lamar has never come close to that. I expect Gus to exceed 250 carries, health permitting.
250 means he’d essentially absorb every vacated carry from Dobbins and take carries away from Jackson, that makes no sense.
It's less than 15 carries a game. It makes perfect sense. In a 7 game stretch when Gus had little competition, in 2018, he had 122 carries for 654 yards. Last year he averaged 9 carries a game. That's less than an extra 6 carries per game, to get to 250. You need to re-check your math, because you're statement is incorrect. He doesn't even need to absorb ever carry from Dobbins to hit 250, let alone take away from Williams, and you haven't factored in vacated carries from Ingram, either.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:23 am

jtk1234 wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:43 am

First off, there is no universe where Edwards gets to 250 carries, you are skirting basic math here, just because Dobbins probably got a larger share of the carries if he stays healthy doesn't mean they go from 550ish attempts to 670, those extra 135 rushing attempts Dobbins had last year don't get added ONTO the total they get divided in some sort of ratio.

and what about Ingram's 72 carries that you are conveniently leaving out? That's 206 vacated carries between Ingram and Dobbins. Even if Gus gets 50 percent of those, he hits 250, with an added game.
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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby jtk1234 » Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:30 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:17 am
jtk1234 wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:52 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:49 pm

I disagree with this. I think Edwards will have more carries. Edwards should be well above 200 carries, and Lamar has never come close to that. I expect Gus to exceed 250 carries, health permitting.
250 means he’d essentially absorb every vacated carry from Dobbins and take carries away from Jackson, that makes no sense.
It's less than 15 carries a game. It makes perfect sense. In a 7 game stretch when Gus had little competition, in 2018, he had 122 carries for 654 yards. Last year he averaged 9 carries a game. That's less than an extra 6 carries per game, to get to 250. You need to re-check your math, because you're statement is incorrect.
Again, if he was the number one rushing option and not in an RBBC I’d say that makes sense. Very few RBs averaged over 15 carries (you have him pegged at 14.7/game so saying “less than 15 carries is a bit disingenuous) you are treating him like he is the work horse back, he is not.
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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:35 am

jtk1234 wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:30 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:17 am
jtk1234 wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:52 pm

250 means he’d essentially absorb every vacated carry from Dobbins and take carries away from Jackson, that makes no sense.
It's less than 15 carries a game. It makes perfect sense. In a 7 game stretch when Gus had little competition, in 2018, he had 122 carries for 654 yards. Last year he averaged 9 carries a game. That's less than an extra 6 carries per game, to get to 250. You need to re-check your math, because you're statement is incorrect.
Again, if he was the number one rushing option and not in an RBBC I’d say that makes sense. Very few RBs averaged over 15 carries (you have him pegged at 14.7/game so saying “less than 15 carries is a bit disingenuous) you are treating him like he is the work horse back, he is not.
.3 carries equates to 5.1. So in the context of going from 144 to 250, 5 carries can certainly make a difference. As I stated earlier, when Gus had this type of backfield, with little competition, he had 122/654 over 7 games. He's going to be the lead back in this offense, and yes, I think he hits 250 carries, barring injury. He is going to be a workhorse back this year. It wasn't the plan, but things change. He's the only RB on that roster that the coaching staff significantly trusts and believes in, at the moment. Williams won't be taking the same role Gus had. They aren't as good, or as trusted. Dobbins isn't replaced 1 for 1, and neither will Gus's secondary role IMO. You are projecting a RBBC, and I am projecting Gus to be the lead back. Sure, the other guys will get some run, but the split won't be the same as if Dobbins and Gus were the 2 RB's.
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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby jtk1234 » Sat Sep 04, 2021 9:08 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:35 am
jtk1234 wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:30 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:17 am

It's less than 15 carries a game. It makes perfect sense. In a 7 game stretch when Gus had little competition, in 2018, he had 122 carries for 654 yards. Last year he averaged 9 carries a game. That's less than an extra 6 carries per game, to get to 250. You need to re-check your math, because you're statement is incorrect.
Again, if he was the number one rushing option and not in an RBBC I’d say that makes sense. Very few RBs averaged over 15 carries (you have him pegged at 14.7/game so saying “less than 15 carries is a bit disingenuous) you are treating him like he is the work horse back, he is not.
.3 carries equates to 5.1. So in the context of going from 144 to 250, 5 carries can certainly make a difference. As I stated earlier, when Gus had this type of backfield, with little competition, he had 122/654 over 7 games. He's going to be the lead back in this offense, and yes, I think he hits 250 carries, barring injury. He is going to be a workhorse back this year. It wasn't the plan, but things change. He's the only RB on that roster that the coaching staff significantly trusts and believes in, at the moment. Williams won't be taking the same role Gus had. They aren't as good, or as trusted. Dobbins isn't replaced 1 for 1, and neither will Gus's secondary role IMO. You are projecting a RBBC, and I am projecting Gus to be the lead back. Sure, the other guys will get some run, but the split won't be the same as if Dobbins and Gus were the 2 RB's.
I’m projecting an RBBC which is what the Ravens coaching staff has historically done even with much less depth behind the “lead” back (again this is Jackson right now), calling Williams and Hill untrusted is a completely unfounded statement, they’ve talked up Williams all preseason even before Dobbins was hurt and Hill is a year removed from being a 2nd round pick. You on the other hand apparently have some inside information that we all are not privy to and are projecting a workload for Edwards that is increasingly rare, only 5 players did it last year and they all had over 70% *opportunity* share. No chance, not a snowballs chance in hell, does Edwards get close to that, statistics and facts are not in your favor on this one, byeeeee✌🏻
Jackson, J Hurts, K Mond
Singletary, Cohen, R Stevenson, Hubbard, Jackson, Rountree, K Ngwangu, T Jones Jr
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Higbee, Jarwin, McKitty, B Jordan

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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby StripesOfKC » Sat Sep 04, 2021 9:16 am

jtk1234 wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 9:08 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:35 am
jtk1234 wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:30 am

Again, if he was the number one rushing option and not in an RBBC I’d say that makes sense. Very few RBs averaged over 15 carries (you have him pegged at 14.7/game so saying “less than 15 carries is a bit disingenuous) you are treating him like he is the work horse back, he is not.
.3 carries equates to 5.1. So in the context of going from 144 to 250, 5 carries can certainly make a difference. As I stated earlier, when Gus had this type of backfield, with little competition, he had 122/654 over 7 games. He's going to be the lead back in this offense, and yes, I think he hits 250 carries, barring injury. He is going to be a workhorse back this year. It wasn't the plan, but things change. He's the only RB on that roster that the coaching staff significantly trusts and believes in, at the moment. Williams won't be taking the same role Gus had. They aren't as good, or as trusted. Dobbins isn't replaced 1 for 1, and neither will Gus's secondary role IMO. You are projecting a RBBC, and I am projecting Gus to be the lead back. Sure, the other guys will get some run, but the split won't be the same as if Dobbins and Gus were the 2 RB's.
I’m projecting an RBBC which is what the Ravens coaching staff has historically done even with much less depth behind the “lead” back (again this is Jackson right now), calling Williams and Hill untrusted is a completely unfounded statement, they’ve talked up Williams all preseason even before Dobbins was hurt and Hill is a year removed from being a 2nd round pick. You on the other hand apparently have some inside information that we all are not privy to and are projecting a workload for Edwards that is increasingly rare, only 5 players did it last year and they all had over 70% *opportunity* share. No chance, not a snowballs chance in hell, does Edwards get close to that, statistics and facts are not in your favor on this one, byeeeee✌🏻
Of the vacated carries he is literally projecting half for Gus.

That's RBBC numbers

Even that gets him to 250 with how much the Ravens run

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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Sep 04, 2021 9:26 am

jtk1234 wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 9:08 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:35 am
jtk1234 wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:30 am

Again, if he was the number one rushing option and not in an RBBC I’d say that makes sense. Very few RBs averaged over 15 carries (you have him pegged at 14.7/game so saying “less than 15 carries is a bit disingenuous) you are treating him like he is the work horse back, he is not.
.3 carries equates to 5.1. So in the context of going from 144 to 250, 5 carries can certainly make a difference. As I stated earlier, when Gus had this type of backfield, with little competition, he had 122/654 over 7 games. He's going to be the lead back in this offense, and yes, I think he hits 250 carries, barring injury. He is going to be a workhorse back this year. It wasn't the plan, but things change. He's the only RB on that roster that the coaching staff significantly trusts and believes in, at the moment. Williams won't be taking the same role Gus had. They aren't as good, or as trusted. Dobbins isn't replaced 1 for 1, and neither will Gus's secondary role IMO. You are projecting a RBBC, and I am projecting Gus to be the lead back. Sure, the other guys will get some run, but the split won't be the same as if Dobbins and Gus were the 2 RB's.
I’m projecting an RBBC which is what the Ravens coaching staff has historically done even with much less depth behind the “lead” back (again this is Jackson right now), calling Williams and Hill untrusted is a completely unfounded statement, they’ve talked up Williams all preseason even before Dobbins was hurt and Hill is a year removed from being a 2nd round pick. You on the other hand apparently have some inside information that we all are not privy to and are projecting a workload for Edwards that is increasingly rare, only 5 players did it last year and they all had over 70% *opportunity* share. No chance, not a snowballs chance in hell, does Edwards get close to that, statistics and facts are not in your favor on this one, byeeeee✌🏻
You should go back to Reddit or whatever, man. The "numbers" that aren't in my favour, like the original comment I made to you, about how your numbers were flat out, objectively wrong, claiming that Gus would need all of Dobbins carries plus cutting into Williams to hit 250? The fact you can't even admit it's a possibility and seem to think you're word is gospel is so juvenile. We're done here, dude. You're a waste of my time.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Sat Sep 04, 2021 9:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby jtk1234 » Sat Sep 04, 2021 9:33 am

Name calling and opinions aren’t valid arguments… but cool. Half of the vacated touches wouldn’t be RBBC in that offense so I just don’t see it. You are asking for a lot to break Edwards way and I don’t like that type of risk in an unproven guy. I will concede that Edwards has a higher ceiling in their current situation, Hunts floor to me is much higher and his ceiling is, as I have stated before, about as high as any back in the NFL if an injury occurs to Chubb. Give me the proven commodity any day in an offense that looks essentially the same as last year.
Last edited by jtk1234 on Sat Sep 04, 2021 9:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
Jackson, J Hurts, K Mond
Singletary, Cohen, R Stevenson, Hubbard, Jackson, Rountree, K Ngwangu, T Jones Jr
Claypool, Sutton, Golladay, AB, Pittman, Bateman, Gage, Kirk, Miller
Higbee, Jarwin, McKitty, B Jordan

Picks: '22 1,1,1,2,2,3,3,4 '23 1,1,2,2,3,4

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Re: Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

Postby murphysxm » Sat Sep 04, 2021 9:39 am

jtk1234 wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 9:33 am Name calling and opinions aren’t valid arguments… but cool. Half of the vacated touches wouldn’t be RBBC in that offense so I just don’t see it. You are asking for a lot to break Edwards way and I don’t like that type of risk in an unproven guy. I will concede that Edwards has a higher ceiling in their current situation, Hunts floor to me is much higher and his ceiling is, as I have stated before, about as high as any back in the NFL. Give me the proven commodity any day in an offense that looks essentially the same as last year.
How is a player in his 4th year in a system where he has averaged 5.2 yards per carry unproven?
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts


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