Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, or Kareem Hunt for the 2021 season?

[FantasyFreak]

Name calling and opinions aren’t valid arguments… but cool. Half of the vacated touches wouldn’t be RBBC in that offense so I just don’t see it. You are asking for a lot to break Edwards way and I don’t like that type of risk in an unproven guy. I will concede that Edwards has a higher ceiling in their current situation, Hunts floor to me is much higher and his ceiling is, as I have stated before, about as high as any back in the NFL. Give me the proven commodity any day in an offense that looks essentially the same as last year.

OK, then we're not done. I also didn't call you a name, I said you're stance was juvenile, the "in no universe" and, "not a snowball's chance in hell" comments seem to suggest you aren't even open to the possibility. I can totally dig this recent post. I have no problem having Hunt over Gus. I'd have a tough time deciding between the two, and might actually go with Hunt. My only argument was that Gus can hit 250 carries, and I think he will. I personally, interjected into your back and forth with KC, but my only point was that Gus could hit 250 in this current situation. I had no horse in Gus vs Hunt.

[jtk1234]

Name calling and opinions aren’t valid arguments… but cool. Half of the vacated touches wouldn’t be RBBC in that offense so I just don’t see it. You are asking for a lot to break Edwards way and I don’t like that type of risk in an unproven guy. I will concede that Edwards has a higher ceiling in their current situation, Hunts floor to me is much higher and his ceiling is, as I have stated before, about as high as any back in the NFL. Give me the proven commodity any day in an offense that looks essentially the same as last year.

How is a player in his 4th year in a system where he has averaged 5.2 yards per carry unproven?

Unproven in the sense that you are assuming he becomes the lead workhorse back, he’s not unproven in his back up role just never taken on the true 3 down role and that’s an increasingly rare thing that I don’t think he’s capable of. The other guy is projecting that he assumes that role, I do not see it.

[jtk1234]

.3 carries equates to 5.1. So in the context of going from 144 to 250, 5 carries can certainly make a difference. As I stated earlier, when Gus had this type of backfield, with little competition, he had 122/654 over 7 games. He's going to be the lead back in this offense, and yes, I think he hits 250 carries, barring injury. He is going to be a workhorse back this year. It wasn't the plan, but things change. He's the only RB on that roster that the coaching staff significantly trusts and believes in, at the moment. Williams won't be taking the same role Gus had. They aren't as good, or as trusted. Dobbins isn't replaced 1 for 1, and neither will Gus's secondary role IMO. You are projecting a RBBC, and I am projecting Gus to be the lead back. Sure, the other guys will get some run, but the split won't be the same as if Dobbins and Gus were the 2 RB's.

I’m projecting an RBBC which is what the Ravens coaching staff has historically done even with much less depth behind the “lead” back (again this is Jackson right now), calling Williams and Hill untrusted is a completely unfounded statement, they’ve talked up Williams all preseason even before Dobbins was hurt and Hill is a year removed from being a 2nd round pick. You on the other hand apparently have some inside information that we all are not privy to and are projecting a workload for Edwards that is increasingly rare, only 5 players did it last year and they all had over 70% *opportunity* share. No chance, not a snowballs chance in hell, does Edwards get close to that, statistics and facts are not in your favor on this one, byeeeee

You should go back to Reddit or whatever, man. The "numbers" that aren't in my favour, like the original comment I made to you, about how your numbers were flat out, objectively wrong, claiming that Gus would need all of Dobbins carries plus cutting into Williams to hit 250? The fact you can't even admit it's a possibility and seem to think you're word is gospel is so juvenile. We're done here, dude. You're a waste of my time.

I’m literally using historical stats and examples to back up my opinion, you are doing some willy nilly math that would put him in the same group as true workhorse backs like Elliot, Montgomery, McCaffery, Robinson and Henry, I just don’t see it. Just because I don’t agree with you doesn’t make me juvenile, it makes me a person who doesn’t agree with you. Little bit of the pot calling the kettle black to use names instead of stats and figures. Maybe I am wrong but I am basing my argument in what we know, you aren’t and I haven’t used any personal attacks to make my point.

[murphysxm]

Name calling and opinions aren’t valid arguments… but cool. Half of the vacated touches wouldn’t be RBBC in that offense so I just don’t see it. You are asking for a lot to break Edwards way and I don’t like that type of risk in an unproven guy. I will concede that Edwards has a higher ceiling in their current situation, Hunts floor to me is much higher and his ceiling is, as I have stated before, about as high as any back in the NFL. Give me the proven commodity any day in an offense that looks essentially the same as last year.

How is a player in his 4th year in a system where he has averaged 5.2 yards per carry unproven?

Unproven in the sense that you are assuming he becomes the lead workhorse back, he’s not unproven in his back up role just never taken on the true 3 down role and that’s an increasingly rare thing that I don’t think he’s capable of. The other guy is projecting that he assumes that role, I do not see it.

I think the overall point you are missing, is nobody is saying he is going to be the lead workhorse get every carry back. The math just supports him hitting 250 carries. With an added game, using his 2020 workload, 5 carries a game increase is all he needs. 15 carries a game in that offense for the most trusted RB on the roster seems pretty reasonable. Baltimore had 555 rushing attempts last year. Dobbins (134) and Ingram (72) are no longer in the building. Take out the 159 that Lamar had, there are 396 attempts left and Gus will get more than anybody else.

[FantasyFreak]

I’m projecting an RBBC which is what the Ravens coaching staff has historically done even with much less depth behind the “lead” back (again this is Jackson right now), calling Williams and Hill untrusted is a completely unfounded statement, they’ve talked up Williams all preseason even before Dobbins was hurt and Hill is a year removed from being a 2nd round pick. You on the other hand apparently have some inside information that we all are not privy to and are projecting a workload for Edwards that is increasingly rare, only 5 players did it last year and they all had over 70% *opportunity* share. No chance, not a snowballs chance in hell, does Edwards get close to that, statistics and facts are not in your favor on this one, byeeeee

You should go back to Reddit or whatever, man. The "numbers" that aren't in my favour, like the original comment I made to you, about how your numbers were flat out, objectively wrong, claiming that Gus would need all of Dobbins carries plus cutting into Williams to hit 250? The fact you can't even admit it's a possibility and seem to think you're word is gospel is so juvenile. We're done here, dude. You're a waste of my time.

I’m literally using historical stats and examples to back up my opinion, you are doing some willy nilly math that would put him in the same group as true workhorse backs like Elliot, Montgomery, McCaffery, Robinson and Henry, I just don’t see it. Just because I don’t agree with you doesn’t make me juvenile, it makes me a person who doesn’t agree with you. Little bit of the pot calling the kettle black to use names instead of stats and figures. Maybe I am wrong but I am basing my argument in what we know, you aren’t and I haven’t used any personal attacks to make my point.

Read my above post.

"OK, then we're not done. I also didn't call you a name, I said you're stance was juvenile, the "in no universe" and, "not a snowball's chance in hell" comments seem to suggest you aren't even open to the possibility. I can totally dig this recent post. I have no problem having Hunt over Gus. I'd have a tough time deciding between the two, and might actually go with Hunt. My only argument was that Gus can hit 250 carries, and I think he will. I personally, interjected into your back and forth with KC, but my only point was that Gus could hit 250 in this current situation. I had no horse in Gus vs Hunt."

[jtk1234]

How is a player in his 4th year in a system where he has averaged 5.2 yards per carry unproven?

Unproven in the sense that you are assuming he becomes the lead workhorse back, he’s not unproven in his back up role just never taken on the true 3 down role and that’s an increasingly rare thing that I don’t think he’s capable of. The other guy is projecting that he assumes that role, I do not see it.

I think the overall point you are missing, is nobody is saying he is going to be the lead workhorse get every carry back. The math just supports him hitting 250 carries. With an added game, using his 2020 workload, 5 carries a game increase is all he needs. 15 carries a game in that offense for the most trusted RB on the roster seems pretty reasonable. Baltimore had 555 rushing attempts last year. Dobbins (134) and Ingram (72) are no longer in the building. Take out the 159 that Lamar had, there are 396 attempts left and Gus will get more than anybody else.

No, I absolutely understand the reasoning and I disagree with it, I think his ceiling is probably 225, and I don’t think he plays a role in the passing game which caps his value for me. There are very few backs in the NFL who get 15+ carries a game over the course of the season.

I also don’t think the backs behind Edwards are a non factor, given Baltimore’s very long track record of taking and RBBC approach even with superior talent at the “lead” back role. I just disagree, which is fine, but I’ll stick with facts and numbers and leave the name calling to others on this thread.

[jtk1234]

I’m also not a big fan of extrapolating numbers from smaller sample sizes. So the whole, he did this in 7 games so he’ll get this in 17 or there are x amount of carries left over and 5 a game isn’t that much of stretch isn’t really an argument in my book, it’s projecting your opinion, I get it that people are high on him, my expectations are tempered because I’m of the mindset that you avoid risk and you win. If you drafted Edwards before Dobbins got hurt good for you you probably have a really nice flex option who has significant upside, but I wouldn’t reach for him at this point. Hunt feels like the safer bet to me.

[FantasyFreak]

Unproven in the sense that you are assuming he becomes the lead workhorse back, he’s not unproven in his back up role just never taken on the true 3 down role and that’s an increasingly rare thing that I don’t think he’s capable of. The other guy is projecting that he assumes that role, I do not see it.

I think the overall point you are missing, is nobody is saying he is going to be the lead workhorse get every carry back. The math just supports him hitting 250 carries. With an added game, using his 2020 workload, 5 carries a game increase is all he needs. 15 carries a game in that offense for the most trusted RB on the roster seems pretty reasonable. Baltimore had 555 rushing attempts last year. Dobbins (134) and Ingram (72) are no longer in the building. Take out the 159 that Lamar had, there are 396 attempts left and Gus will get more than anybody else.

No, I absolutely understand the reasoning and I disagree with it, I think his ceiling is probably 225, and I don’t think he plays a role in the passing game which caps his value for me. There are very few backs in the NFL who get 15+ carries a game over the course of the season.

I also don’t think the backs behind Edwards are a non factor, given Baltimore’s very long track record of taking and RBBC approach even with superior talent at the “lead” back role. I just disagree, which is fine, but I’ll stick with facts and numbers and leave the name calling to others on this thread.

Nobody is name calling here. Saying your stance was juvenile for not accepting the possibility of the other sides argument may come to fruition, isn't name calling. I didn't labelled you, as a person, anything. I was strictly talking the stance you seemed to be taking, with the "in no universe", and "not a snowball's chance in hell" comments to the other side of the discussion. The "facts and numbers" you provided me to initially, were objectively false, stating he's need to basically take all of Dobbins carries and eat into Williams, in order to hit 250. The other facts and numbers you provide are a sound argument. I am totally open to the reality that Gus may not hit 250. I of course say 250, with health permitting. He's obviously not hitting that with any significant time missed. I suppose we shall find out soon enough.

[jtk1234]

I think the overall point you are missing, is nobody is saying he is going to be the lead workhorse get every carry back. The math just supports him hitting 250 carries. With an added game, using his 2020 workload, 5 carries a game increase is all he needs. 15 carries a game in that offense for the most trusted RB on the roster seems pretty reasonable. Baltimore had 555 rushing attempts last year. Dobbins (134) and Ingram (72) are no longer in the building. Take out the 159 that Lamar had, there are 396 attempts left and Gus will get more than anybody else.

No, I absolutely understand the reasoning and I disagree with it, I think his ceiling is probably 225, and I don’t think he plays a role in the passing game which caps his value for me. There are very few backs in the NFL who get 15+ carries a game over the course of the season.

I also don’t think the backs behind Edwards are a non factor, given Baltimore’s very long track record of taking and RBBC approach even with superior talent at the “lead” back role. I just disagree, which is fine, but I’ll stick with facts and numbers and leave the name calling to others on this thread.

Nobody is name calling here. Saying your stance was juvenile for not accepting the possibility of the other sides argument may come to fruition, isn't name calling. I didn't labelled you, as a person, anything. I was strictly talking the stance you seemed to be taking, with the "in no universe", and "not a snowball's chance in hell" comments to the other side of the discussion. The "facts and numbers" you provided me to initially, were objectively false, stating he's need to basically take all of Dobbins carries and eat into Williams, in order to hit 250. The other facts and numbers you provide are a sound argument. I am totally open to the reality that Gus may not hit 250. I of course say 250, with health permitting. He's obviously not hitting that with any significant time missed. I suppose we shall find out soon enough.

I think it’s very improbable that 250 comes to fruition, even if it does I do not see him had a guy who carries significantly more value than Hunt, he would need to be in a very different role than a Ravens running back has had in the last decade. So yeah, I’m not on that hype train. Without the additional context your juvenile comment felt like an ad hominem and frankly I don’t really engage with people like that. It’s a called a forum for a reason, to have an open, sometimes lively discussion, I’ll take you at your word that you didn’t mean anything personally and I will still agree to disagree.

[FantasyFreak]

No, I absolutely understand the reasoning and I disagree with it, I think his ceiling is probably 225, and I don’t think he plays a role in the passing game which caps his value for me. There are very few backs in the NFL who get 15+ carries a game over the course of the season.

I also don’t think the backs behind Edwards are a non factor, given Baltimore’s very long track record of taking and RBBC approach even with superior talent at the “lead” back role. I just disagree, which is fine, but I’ll stick with facts and numbers and leave the name calling to others on this thread.

Nobody is name calling here. Saying your stance was juvenile for not accepting the possibility of the other sides argument may come to fruition, isn't name calling. I didn't labelled you, as a person, anything. I was strictly talking the stance you seemed to be taking, with the "in no universe", and "not a snowball's chance in hell" comments to the other side of the discussion. The "facts and numbers" you provided me to initially, were objectively false, stating he's need to basically take all of Dobbins carries and eat into Williams, in order to hit 250. The other facts and numbers you provide are a sound argument. I am totally open to the reality that Gus may not hit 250. I of course say 250, with health permitting. He's obviously not hitting that with any significant time missed. I suppose we shall find out soon enough.

I think it’s very improbable that 250 comes to fruition, even if it does I do not see him had a guy who carries significantly more value than Hunt, he would need to be in a very different role than a Ravens running back has had in the last decade. So yeah, I’m not on that hype train. Without the additional context your juvenile comment felt like an ad hominem and frankly I don’t really engage with people like that. It’s a called a forum for a reason, to have an open, sometimes lively discussion, I’ll take you at your work that you didn’t mean anything personally and I will still agree to disagree.

Sounds good. Have a great day.

[jtk1234]

You as well

[FantasyFreak]

How is a player in his 4th year in a system where he has averaged 5.2 yards per carry unproven?

Unproven in the sense that you are assuming he becomes the lead workhorse back, he’s not unproven in his back up role just never taken on the true 3 down role and that’s an increasingly rare thing that I don’t think he’s capable of. The other guy is projecting that he assumes that role, I do not see it.

I think the overall point you are missing, is nobody is saying he is going to be the lead workhorse get every carry back. The math just supports him hitting 250 carries. With an added game, using his 2020 workload, 5 carries a game increase is all he needs. 15 carries a game in that offense for the most trusted RB on the roster seems pretty reasonable. Baltimore had 555 rushing attempts last year. Dobbins (134) and Ingram (72) are no longer in the building. Take out the 159 that Lamar had, there are 396 attempts left and Gus will get more than anybody else.

Genuinely curious how many of Lamar's carries aren't designed runs, because there are certainly quite a few. They aren't calling 159 run plays for him a year, I'd imagine there are quite a few that are pass plays where he simply scrambles and runs, but I'd like to see the actual number.

[murphysxm]

Genuinely curious how many of Lamar's carries aren't designed runs, because there are certainly quite a few. They aren't calling 159 run plays for him a year, I'd imagine there are quite a few that are pass plays where he simply scrambles and runs, but I'd like to see the actual number.

I would assume a high percentage aren't designed, but not sure where to find that data.

[The MAC Machine]

To kind of meld this conversation with the Fournette thread a little, I think its interesting how quietly and steadily Ronald Jones' value has dropped. The fact that he isnt a heavier player in this conversation is telling. Not just of what people think about him, but also maybe Fournette?

[FantasyFreak]

To kind of meld this conversation with the Fournette thread a little, I think its interesting how quietly and steadily Ronald Jones' value has dropped. The fact that he isnt a heavier player in this conversation is telling. Not just of what people think about him, but also maybe Fournette?

I have been grabbing Rojo everywhere I can. Think he's in for a good year. He's easily the best early down runner on a team that projects to be a high powered offense, that will be milking leads late in games, quite a bit. Rojo had one of the better rushing grades in the league last year. He's just never going to be a big receiving guy. If he can get 30-35 catches, I think he can push for high end RB2 numbers, assuming health this year.