Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

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Avery
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Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Avery » Sun May 02, 2021 8:53 am

This is a genuine question, not a strong position piece as I'm leading with the caveat that I don't watch a ton of college ball and rely more on scouting reports for rookies from people I've learned to trust given their strong track records.

I'm not sure I see a huge difference between these two players and Waddle is a top 1/2 of the 1st round rookie pick (non SF) and Toney is being faded (often deep) in the second round.

They aren't identical players - Waddle runs more advanced routes and Toney is a touch bigger and more explosive - but they seem way too similar to me to be receiving such diametrically opposed futures in the NFL.

Is it that Garrett isn't seen as creative enough to unlock Toney potential?
Is it draft capital?
Is it that Tua is seen as a more competent QB that Jones?
Is it (I believe overblown) character concerns with Toney?

I would love to hear some opinions because I'm not sure I'm seeing such different futures for these players.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Gator Sens » Sun May 02, 2021 9:18 am

Waddle is a mid 1st rookie pick and Toney is an early to mid 2nd. Love Waddles potential, but he could bust also. Toney could have great value if he falls a bit in rookie drafts. Waddle has great draft capital and a nice connection with Tua.

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Avery » Sun May 02, 2021 9:21 am

Gator Sens wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 9:18 am Waddle is a mid 1st rookie pick and Toney is an early to mid 2nd. Love Waddles potential, but he could bust also. Toney could have great value if he falls a bit in rookie drafts. Waddle has great draft capital and a nice connection with Tua.
So are you saying that the nearly a round difference of your ranking is more because of Tua and draft capital rather than the skillets or players themselves?
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Gator Sens » Sun May 02, 2021 9:35 am

Avery wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 9:21 am
Gator Sens wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 9:18 am Waddle is a mid 1st rookie pick and Toney is an early to mid 2nd. Love Waddles potential, but he could bust also. Toney could have great value if he falls a bit in rookie drafts. Waddle has great draft capital and a nice connection with Tua.
So are you saying that the nearly a round difference of your ranking is more because of Tua and draft capital rather than the skillets or players themselves?
Draft capital and who I think the 1st round picks are in most rookie drafts. Far or not, Waddle carries much more value within the community. Both have intriguing skill sets but Waddle could have a huge ceiling if he puts it together.

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Avery » Sun May 02, 2021 9:39 am

Gator Sens wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 9:35 am
Avery wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 9:21 am
Gator Sens wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 9:18 am Waddle is a mid 1st rookie pick and Toney is an early to mid 2nd. Love Waddles potential, but he could bust also. Toney could have great value if he falls a bit in rookie drafts. Waddle has great draft capital and a nice connection with Tua.
So are you saying that the nearly a round difference of your ranking is more because of Tua and draft capital rather than the skillets or players themselves?
Draft capital and who I think the 1st round picks are in most rookie drafts. Far or not, Waddle carries much more value within the community. Both have intriguing skill sets but Waddle could have a huge ceiling if he puts it together.
I don't disagree on draft capital, and would take Waddle over Toney, but Toney is being faded below multiple later drafted WRs so it's not just draft capital working here for the consensus view on Toney.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby murphysxm » Sun May 02, 2021 10:08 am

For me Toney is a much higher bust risk. He's extremely athletic, but is just learning the position and will need some help with play calling to create opportunities. Jason Garrett is not that guy.
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Avery » Sun May 02, 2021 3:03 pm

murphysxm wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 10:08 am For me Toney is a much higher bust risk. He's extremely athletic, but is just learning the position and will need some help with play calling to create opportunities. Jason Garrett is not that guy.
I think the best argument against Toney is Garrett's pack of creativity.
But if Gettleman can learn to trade down, then maybe Garrett can lear to be creative with a WR.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby halfbaked88 » Sun May 02, 2021 4:51 pm

Every fantasy analyst, contributor, "expert" has rankings and opinions on players.

Ultimately, what real NFL team do with roster transactions is what really matters. Not positive coach speak or how the fantasy community views a player. Roster adds/drops, draft position and contracts are the only surefire way to see what a team's desires are.

Draft capital is super important because it's directly linked to how a NFL team views the players talent. Whether that player turns out to be successful or not is irrelevant in this case. Whether or not you agree with the NFL is also irrelevant.

First round rookies are expected to be immediate difference makers. That means the *volume* is going to be there and generally volume is the best indicator for potential fantasy pts.

Toney and Waddle both went in the 1st round - so we're comparing apples to apples from a real life NFL perspective.

Next, after seeing where the NFL team's drafted the players, and weighing the professional scouts evaluations over "whatever fantasy" websites rankings were; the #1 most important thing when evaluating rookies is their college production profile. Not just stats, measurables, attributes, breakout age, etc. but all of those things together to determine that player's overall "profile."

The main reason people are higher on Waddle vs. Toney is Waddle played on a team with extreme talent and was still able to make a name for himself. Toney had good film and production in college - but was not playing around the same level of talent.

Look at Ja'Marr Chase. Playing alongside Justin Jefferson - who had a historic rookie WR season, yet Chase was the alpha there in college. Now everyone uses that logic to determine that Chase will be even better than Jefferson or at least as good because he was outcompeting him when they played together college.

It's a vaguely similar situation with Waddle. When you look at the players he was playing with: Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith, Ruggs, etc... People are projecting he will be as good if not better than them because he was able to perform alongside them in competition and earn those targets and production, almost in spite of having all that talent on the field.

The way Toney got his yards and stat line isn't the same. It's not as impressive considering what Waddle had to do. Therefore most people see Waddle as the better player and able to play alongside other elite players and still contribute.

Plus Toney did a lot of hokey pokey stuff in the backfield in college and some people aren't sure that is going to work on professional athletes the same way it did in college.

Consensus is Waddle's skill set will translate to the NFL better.

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Avery » Sun May 02, 2021 6:26 pm

halfbaked88 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 4:51 pm Every fantasy analyst, contributor, "expert" has rankings and opinions on players.

Ultimately, what real NFL team do with roster transactions is what really matters. Not positive coach speak or how the fantasy community views a player. Roster adds/drops, draft position and contracts are the only surefire way to see what a team's desires are.

Draft capital is super important because it's directly linked to how a NFL team views the players talent. Whether that player turns out to be successful or not is irrelevant in this case. Whether or not you agree with the NFL is also irrelevant.

First round rookies are expected to be immediate difference makers. That means the *volume* is going to be there and generally volume is the best indicator for potential fantasy pts.

Toney and Waddle both went in the 1st round - so we're comparing apples to apples from a real life NFL perspective.

Next, after seeing where the NFL team's drafted the players, and weighing the professional scouts evaluations over "whatever fantasy" websites rankings were; the #1 most important thing when evaluating rookies is their college production profile. Not just stats, measurables, attributes, breakout age, etc. but all of those things together to determine that player's overall "profile."

The main reason people are higher on Waddle vs. Toney is Waddle played on a team with extreme talent and was still able to make a name for himself. Toney had good film and production in college - but was not playing around the same level of talent.

Look at Ja'Marr Chase. Playing alongside Justin Jefferson - who had a historic rookie WR season, yet Chase was the alpha there in college. Now everyone uses that logic to determine that Chase will be even better than Jefferson or at least as good because he was outcompeting him when they played together college.

It's a vaguely similar situation with Waddle. When you look at the players he was playing with: Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith, Ruggs, etc... People are projecting he will be as good if not better than them because he was able to perform alongside them in competition and earn those targets and production, almost in spite of having all that talent on the field.

The way Toney got his yards and stat line isn't the same. It's not as impressive considering what Waddle had to do. Therefore most people see Waddle as the better player and able to play alongside other elite players and still contribute.

Plus Toney did a lot of hokey pokey stuff in the backfield in college and some people aren't sure that is going to work on professional athletes the same way it did in college.

Consensus is Waddle's skill set will translate to the NFL better.
Toney against Alabama (ironically?):
8 catches, 2 rushes
168 yards

:think:

I entirely get your points, and I don't mean this in a confrontational way although you make take it as so but I hope not, but you don't seem very familiar with the type of player Waddle is. You are discounting Toney because he did a lot of "hokey pokey stuff" in college and somehow credited Waddle for putting up yards but seemingly not discounting him as well as to how he got those yards. He earned those target in part because he also manufactured yards in some atypical WR ways (i.e. special teams, gadget plays). I think that is a positive for both of them as it gives them higher floors.

Also, you are crediting Waddle for putting up great yards despite having great receivers across form him. His college career high yardage is 848 yards and that was back in 2018 and that dropped to 560 in 2019. Not yearly numbers that jump off the chart.

I'm not saying any of this to say that Waddle isn't a great talent. I think he is and would take him over Toney if given the chance but it seems you are trying to fit the both into a predisposed narrative you have about them when I'm not sure their playing styles or production warrant that.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby halfbaked88 » Sun May 02, 2021 6:52 pm

I gave a general overview answer because I don't want to argue stat lines. Not my idea of a "good time.

Waddle has a bit of a strange profile. But the NFL scouts get paid well and took him at Pick 6 overall. That should tell you all you need to know.

If kinda seems like you want to pick Toney over Waddle? Or that it's somehow close... I wouldn't put them in the same tier. And it's not close.

All I'm really trying to say is I usually pay attention to real life football cues... That's basically it

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Avery » Sun May 02, 2021 7:13 pm

halfbaked88 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 6:52 pm I gave a general overview answer because I don't want to argue stat lines. Not my idea of a "good time.

Waddle has a bit of a strange profile. But the NFL scouts get paid well and took him at Pick 6 overall. That should tell you all you need to know.

If kinda seems like you want to pick Toney over Waddle? Or that it's somehow close... I wouldn't put them in the same tier. And it's not close.

All I'm really trying to say is I usually pay attention to real life football cues... That's basically it
It seems you don't want to have this conversation, so I'm not sure why you joined, but if I'm mistaken and you do...

So you are saying the earlier the player is drafted, as the scouts give their stamp of approval, "That should tell you all you need to know.". Beyond the fact that we know from every past draft that is flawed thinking, if we suppose it isn't, then I assume you would draft Toney 4th off the WR board in this year's class? Before Bateman and definitely before Rondale Moore, Elijah Moore and Terrace Marshall. Right?
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby GOTGDynasty » Sun May 02, 2021 8:14 pm

I appreciate your question because I hadn't ever thought about comparing the two. Waddle was the second WR on my board. Toney was the fifth. I'm also a Giants fan and when the pick happened I was a little perplexed and disappointed that he got chosen before Bateman.

All three are faster-than-average. Waddle at 4.37, Toney at 4.38 and Bateman clocks at 4.39 in the 40-yard dash. None are as fast as Tyreek Hill (4.27) but each could be for their teams a similar kind of playmaker if the QB rises to the occasion. Speed alone doesn't account for much in my book. Cynthia Frehlund has found that 4.5 guys generally do as well as faster guys in the league. But it counts some.

My disappointment has waned a bit as others began weighing in. Jags coach Urban Meyer confessed to the media after drafting Etienne that there was another guy he wanted and it broke his heart that guy went first. He later said it was Toney. Charley Casserly and a bunch of other smart experienced guys went nuts over the Toney pick.

I do share the concerns some have shared here about whether Jason Garrett can do Toney right and not just relegate him to gadget player (a la Tavon Austin). Interestingly, Toney used to play QB. He had to learn the WR position relatively recently. The more I learn, the better I feel about the pick.

The other thing about Toney is yards after the catch. Waddle and Toney are ranked by PFF first and second in this class in yards after catch, with Toney having the leading stats on forcing missed tackles after catches.

Both these guys are in AJ Brown - Percy Harvin territory by the YAC stat.

I like Waddle better because I trust Tua more than Daniel Jones as QB. But if Jones doesn't do the job this year the Giants have the draft capital in 2022 to get a high pick replacement. Landing team has influence. But it was AJ Brown himself who showed us recently that landing spot doesn't tell all. Talent in the end finds a way. Brown made Tannehill better as a QB. Which of these guys - Waddle or Toney, and I would add Bateman to the conversation - can make their guy a better QB will probably answer your question.

Again, I appreciate the question because it made me approach my own from a different angle.
QBs: Patrick Mahomes, Trey Lance, Tua Tagovailoa
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley, JK Dobbins, James Conner, Travis Etienne, Tony Pollard, Brian Robinson.
WR: Ja'Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Godwin, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, Chris Olave, Odell Beckham, Josh Palmer
TE: George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, Taysom Hill, Trey McBride, Isaiah Likely
PK: Nick Folk
(IDPs, start two per week per position):
DL: Danielle Hunter, Myles Garrett, Alex Highsmith, Aidan Hutchinson, Chase Young,
LB: Roquan Smith, C.J. Mosley, Logan Wilson, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoa
DB: Derwin James, Jeremy Chinn, Xavier McKinney, Jalen Pitre

* Ten team league started in 2014.
** 40 player roster, 30 Keepers per season.
*** Red denotes 2022 draft pickups.

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby halfbaked88 » Mon May 03, 2021 2:59 am

I thought I did. But this is obviously a baited conversation. You open with "um scuse, me I genuinely have a question" then proceed to be argumentative af.

I try to avoid people like you.

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby killer_of_giants » Mon May 03, 2021 3:55 am

i wouldn't be (too) surprised if waddle ends up more like ruggs and toney like aiyuk. not that i trust the giants to get something right, mind (which is a source of great pleasure!).

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby -THE DUDE- » Mon May 03, 2021 9:07 am

As a Gators fan and watching a lot of Toney he is still super raw at WR. I think this year where he was finally healthy and had good QB play he showed how far he’s come. Still needs to work on route running but with his short area quickness and burst he can be absolutely uncoverable if he can perfect his craft. Quicker than he is fast...that 40 time was slightly misleading as he doesn’t have great break away speed. Much stronger runner than you’d think based on size. Waddle is definitely the safer prospect
QB: A. Rodgers, Herbert, Purdy, Levis
RB: ETN, Bijan, Gibbs, Mostert, Dobbins, R. White
WR: AJB, Diggs, ARSB, G. Wilson, Kirk, E. Moore, Mingo, Wicks
TE: Fant, Njoku, Chiggy, I. Smith, Musgrave


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