Lance over Lawrence?

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halfbaked88
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Re: Lance over Lawrence?

Postby halfbaked88 » Sun May 02, 2021 12:54 pm

You have to take Lawrence over Lance at this moment. He's the much more proven asset that has both the floor and ceiling you want in a 1st overall pick. It's his character that I question. The guy hasn't lost much in his college career. He's been living off natural talent. I applaude that, but we haven't seen him struggle. Does he have the grit to grind through the pros. How will he hold up playing on a bad team that's going to lose - and lose a lot.

If T Laws attitude in interviews and red flag comments about "not needing championships or football" bother you... Lance has gone to a dream landing spot.

If Kyle Shanahan is as good as we say he is - then I can see Lance easily regarded as the best QB in the 2021 draft 2-3 years from now. He just needs good coaching and he undoubtedly has it.

It's rare for these top QB prospects to end up on Superbowl contenders. It's a QB friendly system. It wouldn't be absurd to me if I see Lance being drafted over Lawrence. Its a big boy move, but I can see the thought process behind it.

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Re: Lance over Lawrence?

Postby Sriracha » Sun May 02, 2021 1:06 pm

trc wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 10:49 am
My BallZach Ertz wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 6:05 am
Sriracha wrote: Sat May 01, 2021 8:22 pm

I don’t necessarily agree that Lawrence has lower upside.

All 3 have sky high ceilings. Lawrence is the safest.
You will have to draft Lawrence in the first round of a 1QB league which is stupid. I’d rather grab somebody else in the 2nd round and call it good.
No it isn't.
Even in QB1 it is golden to have a steady QB that you can start every week. Absolutely best if it can be a top 5 QB, which is what Lawrence is hyped to be. Set it and forget it for 10 years, and let someone else have the headache of trying to guess the best QB for the week of a bunch of medicore 'streamable' players.

And you most likely have a extra roster spot for the development players.
Everyone has their own philosophy.. but I maintain taking a QB in the 1st in 1QB is idiotic unless it's a weak draft class, your league has unusual QB modifiers or it's a 16+ team league.

High upside QBs fall to round 2 or 3 all the time in 1QB. Mahomes, Herbert, Watson, Wilson, Rodgers, Dak, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson were all not 1st round picks and would probably be valued higher or similarly to Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Cam Newton and other 1st round QBs.

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Re: Lance over Lawrence?

Postby jcc6fd » Sun May 02, 2021 1:23 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 1:06 pm
trc wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 10:49 am
My BallZach Ertz wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 6:05 am

You will have to draft Lawrence in the first round of a 1QB league which is stupid. I’d rather grab somebody else in the 2nd round and call it good.
No it isn't.
Even in QB1 it is golden to have a steady QB that you can start every week. Absolutely best if it can be a top 5 QB, which is what Lawrence is hyped to be. Set it and forget it for 10 years, and let someone else have the headache of trying to guess the best QB for the week of a bunch of medicore 'streamable' players.

And you most likely have a extra roster spot for the development players.
Everyone has their own philosophy.. but I maintain taking a QB in the 1st in 1QB is idiotic unless it's a weak draft class, your league has unusual QB modifiers or it's a 16+ team league.

High upside QBs fall to round 2 or 3 all the time in 1QB. Mahomes, Herbert, Watson, Wilson, Rodgers, Dak, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson were all not 1st round picks and would probably be valued higher or similarly to Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Cam Newton and other 1st round QBs.

I think taking Lawrence in the first is only viable if you believe he has top 5 upside in a 1 QB league, which many think he does. If he plays at a low QB1 level then you probably should have taken a shot at a RB/WR.

I'm definitely on board with the prospect of shooting for an upside QB a la Lance in the late second because of the potential value in getting him for a much lower cost. So if the argument is which QB is a better value, that's an interesting debate in my mind.

But if the premise of this thread is asking whether you should take Lance or Lawrence at the same pick, all else equal, I don't think the rushing upside of Lance eclipses the overall upside of Lawrence plus that his floor is exceedingly higher.
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Re: Lance over Lawrence?

Postby Sriracha » Sun May 02, 2021 1:40 pm

jcc6fd wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 1:23 pm
Sriracha wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 1:06 pm
trc wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 10:49 am

No it isn't.
Even in QB1 it is golden to have a steady QB that you can start every week. Absolutely best if it can be a top 5 QB, which is what Lawrence is hyped to be. Set it and forget it for 10 years, and let someone else have the headache of trying to guess the best QB for the week of a bunch of medicore 'streamable' players.

And you most likely have a extra roster spot for the development players.
Everyone has their own philosophy.. but I maintain taking a QB in the 1st in 1QB is idiotic unless it's a weak draft class, your league has unusual QB modifiers or it's a 16+ team league.

High upside QBs fall to round 2 or 3 all the time in 1QB. Mahomes, Herbert, Watson, Wilson, Rodgers, Dak, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson were all not 1st round picks and would probably be valued higher or similarly to Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Cam Newton and other 1st round QBs.

I think taking Lawrence in the first is only viable if you believe he has top 5 upside in a 1 QB league, which many think he does. If he plays at a low QB1 level then you probably should have taken a shot at a RB/WR.

I'm definitely on board with the prospect of shooting for an upside QB a la Lance in the late second because of the potential value in getting him for a much lower cost. So if the argument is which QB is a better value, that's an interesting debate in my mind.

But if the premise of this thread is asking whether you should take Lance or Lawrence at the same pick, all else equal, I don't think the rushing upside of Lance eclipses the overall upside of Lawrence plus that his floor is exceedingly higher.
I'm with you there.

As for the value, I don't think that's up for debate. Lawrence's ADP is just too high. You could get 3 2nds + for his draft slot and the chance that one of Fields + Lance + Wilson become top 5 QBs would be much higher.

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Re: Lance over Lawrence?

Postby trc » Mon May 03, 2021 3:40 am

Sriracha wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 1:06 pm
trc wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 10:49 am
My BallZach Ertz wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 6:05 am

You will have to draft Lawrence in the first round of a 1QB league which is stupid. I’d rather grab somebody else in the 2nd round and call it good.
No it isn't.
Even in QB1 it is golden to have a steady QB that you can start every week. Absolutely best if it can be a top 5 QB, which is what Lawrence is hyped to be. Set it and forget it for 10 years, and let someone else have the headache of trying to guess the best QB for the week of a bunch of medicore 'streamable' players.

And you most likely have a extra roster spot for the development players.
Everyone has their own philosophy.. but I maintain taking a QB in the 1st in 1QB is idiotic unless it's a weak draft class, your league has unusual QB modifiers or it's a 16+ team league.

High upside QBs fall to round 2 or 3 all the time in 1QB. Mahomes, Herbert, Watson, Wilson, Rodgers, Dak, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson were all not 1st round picks and would probably be valued higher or similarly to Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Cam Newton and other 1st round QBs.
Yes they fall all the time, none of them was viewed on par with Lucks talent pre-draft.
To use your own term, it would be idiotic neglecting that, just because you can get lucky later in the draft.

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Re: Lance over Lawrence?

Postby Ice » Mon May 03, 2021 6:27 am

halfbaked88 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 12:54 pm You have to take Lawrence over Lance at this moment. He's the much more proven asset that has both the floor and ceiling you want in a 1st overall pick. It's his character that I question. The guy hasn't lost much in his college career. He's been living off natural talent. I applaude that, but we haven't seen him struggle. Does he have the grit to grind through the pros. How will he hold up playing on a bad team that's going to lose - and lose a lot.

If T Laws attitude in interviews and red flag comments about "not needing championships or football" bother you... Lance has gone to a dream landing spot.

If Kyle Shanahan is as good as we say he is - then I can see Lance easily regarded as the best QB in the 2021 draft 2-3 years from now. He just needs good coaching and he undoubtedly has it.

It's rare for these top QB prospects to end up on Superbowl contenders. It's a QB friendly system. It wouldn't be absurd to me if I see Lance being drafted over Lawrence. Its a big boy move, but I can see the thought process behind it.
Lawrence has been living in a fish bowl since he was in the 9th grade. He is the last person I would be worrying about how he handles himself. Most generational types thrive off the pressure since they have been conditioned to deal with it at such a young age.

Motivation is a very personal and internal thing.

Hard to say who will be the best but Lawrence has a big lead if one buys into the theory that an ounce of preparation is worth an ounce of deliverance.

This is a very good class so 3 or 4 should be home runs.
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Re: Lance over Lawrence?

Postby dustyroads » Mon May 03, 2021 12:34 pm

Considering most thought this was a weak RB class to begin with, and after seeing all the bad landing spots for a lot of these guys, combined with the fact this QB class in general is very highly touted; I think even the non-Lawrence QBs are going to start getting snagged early/mid 2nd round picks (Wilson, Lance, Fields). Certainly will be league dependent; but I happen to be in a few leagues where several teams own multiple QB1s (leaving a few teams very QB poor). If I don't have a top 6 guy or young guy who showed out last year (Mahomes, Rodgers, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Murray) I'd be looking to take one of these guys by the early/mid second when the other options dry up.

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Re: Lance over Lawrence?

Postby AussieMate » Mon May 03, 2021 5:32 pm

I'm one of the few people who had both Wilson and Lance above Fields and the landing spot raised Lance even higher for me but Lawrence is still the correct choice here, his floor is just way to high and despite what people say his ceiling has to be pretty close to what Lances best case scenario is, Trevor is an amazing rusher as well and will likely poach a ton of redzone tds like Allen does.

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Re: Lance over Lawrence?

Postby Gator Sens » Sat May 15, 2021 11:46 pm

Just going off the title as I'm late to the party, easily Lawrence.

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Re: Lance over Lawrence?

Postby murphysxm » Sun May 16, 2021 8:44 am

halfbaked88 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 12:54 pm How will he hold up playing on a bad team that's going to lose - and lose a lot.
If Trevor is the talent he is projected to be and Urban doesn't get in the way, this offense has the weapons to put up points. I think they are a .500 team at worst this year.
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Lance over Lawrence?

Postby atlmoneyman » Sun May 16, 2021 6:47 pm

Lawrence unless you are a risk taker.. If both of them start slowly, Lawrence will maintain trade value.


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