Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
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Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
This post may come across as a fanboy take, Hindsight is 20/20, type of thing. I admittedly took Monty over Jacobs in the 2019 draft (Harry Sanders went 1+2, threw me off but I had a plan I stuck to) and paid a good price to ensure I got my guy.
I have seen a lot of posts that indicate DM is a buy-low. I have seen numerous expert articles with the same sentiment.
I have seen almost zero articles that call Jacobs out as a premier buy. Buy high? His assumed price tag has skyrocketed, assumptions that mainly seem driven by a perception he will suddenly become a 40-50 reception back in 2020. His baked in price and ceiling is already realized- mizelle adp-- which I know is a limited sample each month-- says that he is roughly equal to Chubb. Love to see any Chubb owner that says yes to a 1 to 1 Jacobs swap-- it's nonsense.
When I drafted Monty, the biggest driver in my mind was "this guy can take a thrashing, a beating, and power on" he will stick in the league, and does everything well in a similar way to Frank Gore. He breaks tackles at an incredible rate (Jacobs does too, ick). I believed he may not be a flashy option but he will be a steady one. Now Monty has a clear path to a repeat in volume, and a situation that seems to be improving.
Jacobs already had shoulder issues, but seemed to take on less of a burden, right? DWash put up pretty good replacement numbers for Jacobs in his missed games. This is a dalvin cook, talent is there, but his body will betray him situation... (Oh you own cook, yah my take is sell sell for premier cost if able). I do not believe the shoulder stuff goes away. Would we say the same about the next man up for Chi? They believe in Monty and I believe it will pay off considerably.
I would still outright deny Jacobs for Monty straight up if it were offered. Tell me why I'm wrong!
I have seen a lot of posts that indicate DM is a buy-low. I have seen numerous expert articles with the same sentiment.
I have seen almost zero articles that call Jacobs out as a premier buy. Buy high? His assumed price tag has skyrocketed, assumptions that mainly seem driven by a perception he will suddenly become a 40-50 reception back in 2020. His baked in price and ceiling is already realized- mizelle adp-- which I know is a limited sample each month-- says that he is roughly equal to Chubb. Love to see any Chubb owner that says yes to a 1 to 1 Jacobs swap-- it's nonsense.
When I drafted Monty, the biggest driver in my mind was "this guy can take a thrashing, a beating, and power on" he will stick in the league, and does everything well in a similar way to Frank Gore. He breaks tackles at an incredible rate (Jacobs does too, ick). I believed he may not be a flashy option but he will be a steady one. Now Monty has a clear path to a repeat in volume, and a situation that seems to be improving.
Jacobs already had shoulder issues, but seemed to take on less of a burden, right? DWash put up pretty good replacement numbers for Jacobs in his missed games. This is a dalvin cook, talent is there, but his body will betray him situation... (Oh you own cook, yah my take is sell sell for premier cost if able). I do not believe the shoulder stuff goes away. Would we say the same about the next man up for Chi? They believe in Monty and I believe it will pay off considerably.
I would still outright deny Jacobs for Monty straight up if it were offered. Tell me why I'm wrong!
My team/Picks (14 Teamer- .5PPR) Start 1 QB, 2-3 RB, 2-3 WR, 1-2 TE
QB Lamar Jackson, Russ Wilson, Mills
RB A Gibson, Aaron Jones, Damien Harris, Penny IR, D.Pierce, Haskins
WR ARobinson, KAllen, Mike Evans, Sutton, Amon-Ra, TBoyd, GDavis, Dotson, Pierce
TE Mark Andrews, Goedert, LThomas
K Tucker
2023- No Picks
2024- 2, 2
Rebuild Sad Orphan 12 team .5PPR -- Start 1QB, 2-4 WR, 2-4 RB, 1-3 TE
QB. Tua, DJones (IR)
RB Bijan (R), Gibbs (R), J. Conner, TSpears (R), Demercado, J Mason, Z. White
WR Amon-Ra St Brown, Nico Collins, J. Reed (R), R. Shaheed, C.Tillman (R), Osborn, Terrace M, CSamuel, Pierce, Ross
TE Andrews, Ferguson, McBride, Ertz (IR)
DEF- Patriots, Vikings
2024 None
2025 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3
2026 2, 3
QB Lamar Jackson, Russ Wilson, Mills
RB A Gibson, Aaron Jones, Damien Harris, Penny IR, D.Pierce, Haskins
WR ARobinson, KAllen, Mike Evans, Sutton, Amon-Ra, TBoyd, GDavis, Dotson, Pierce
TE Mark Andrews, Goedert, LThomas
K Tucker
2023- No Picks
2024- 2, 2
Rebuild Sad Orphan 12 team .5PPR -- Start 1QB, 2-4 WR, 2-4 RB, 1-3 TE
QB. Tua, DJones (IR)
RB Bijan (R), Gibbs (R), J. Conner, TSpears (R), Demercado, J Mason, Z. White
WR Amon-Ra St Brown, Nico Collins, J. Reed (R), R. Shaheed, C.Tillman (R), Osborn, Terrace M, CSamuel, Pierce, Ross
TE Andrews, Ferguson, McBride, Ertz (IR)
DEF- Patriots, Vikings
2024 None
2025 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3
2026 2, 3
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
You're wrong. Oh, BTW, basing a players trajectory on "articles" is not a good way to go about things. Jacobs is a better RB on basically every level, and his shoulder injury isn't considered a long term thing. The Bears offense is a joke, The Raiders are invested in Jacobs way more than the Bears are to Monty, and just drafted players to make his life even easier, despite his insane yards per carry vs a stacked box.
Monty
Base front: 3.2 YPC
Stacked front: 2.4 YPC
Jacobs
Base front: 4.4 YPC
Stacked front: 4.9 YPC
I could go on, but don't feel the need to. In a year I think this post will look pretty bad.
Monty
Base front: 3.2 YPC
Stacked front: 2.4 YPC
Jacobs
Base front: 4.4 YPC
Stacked front: 4.9 YPC
I could go on, but don't feel the need to. In a year I think this post will look pretty bad.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
Eww. Monty looked so average to me last year. He’s like Lev Bell with zero burst to actually get through the hole. No power, no speed, he doesn’t do anything to earn more yeards than what is given.
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
QB: Dak, Pickett
RB: CMC, Taylor, Gibson, Dillon, Akers, Penny
WR: JJeff, Hollywood, Olave, Toney, Aiyuk, Jeudy, C. Davis, Boyd, C. Samuel,
TE: Njoku, Gesicki
2023 picks: 1.x, 2.x, 3.x, 4.x
QB: Dak, Pickett
RB: CMC, Taylor, Gibson, Dillon, Akers, Penny
WR: JJeff, Hollywood, Olave, Toney, Aiyuk, Jeudy, C. Davis, Boyd, C. Samuel,
TE: Njoku, Gesicki
2023 picks: 1.x, 2.x, 3.x, 4.x
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
Because the ADP difference is astronomical, and you be a dullard not to do so. Honestly, I loved Monty early in the college scouting process, but his lack of burst is apparent, the team he's on does not have direction, and he's does not have the talent to overcome it. The Raiders invested in Jacobs in the first, have shown on every level they will rely heavily on him, improved the offensive talent aroond him, and he was already on pace for 1300 yards as a rookie before they shut him down because they weren't going anywhere.johnnymozart wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:35 pm
I would still outright deny Jacobs for Monty straight up if it were offered. Tell me why I'm wrong!
This just reeks of take lock. I don't get it at all.
Here's an article, though. It explains why Jacobs didn't catch a lot of passes, and how they want to involve him more. From Mayock himself.
https://fansided.com/2020/02/25/raiders ... ents-2020/
Here's another, and there are more, if you actually look. Mayock and the Raiders were quite clear about involving him more as a pass catcher, like he was at Bama.
https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/footb ... ving-work/
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Fri Jul 24, 2020 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
montgomery is a "just a guy" prototype
Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
Just imagine if you didn’t mess up taking Montgomery over Jacobs you could have traded Jacobs for Montgomery and a 2021 1st and 2nd
Or just kept the better RB (Jacobs). I agree with FF just seems like Take Lock more than a Flag Plant
Not to mention in order for Montgomery’s trajectory to exceed Jacobs, he’d have to be a top 5 RB. Jacobs is already a RB1.
Or just kept the better RB (Jacobs). I agree with FF just seems like Take Lock more than a Flag Plant
Not to mention in order for Montgomery’s trajectory to exceed Jacobs, he’d have to be a top 5 RB. Jacobs is already a RB1.
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:54 pmBecause the ADP difference is astronomical, and you be a dullard not to do so.johnnymozart wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:35 pm
I would still outright deny Jacobs for Monty straight up if it were offered. Tell me why I'm wrong!
It's simply bad process. You're locking in a loss currently.
Even if you want to slide in the DM, not capitalizing on the value discrepancy is a losing strategy in dynasty.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs
QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Sutton, Downs, Mims, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.06
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs
QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Sutton, Downs, Mims, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.06
Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
I don't remember hearing all this monty hate last year. I never liked him at all. It was beyond dumb to invest the pick the Bears did for a JAG running back at best. At least take a shot on a guy with actual athleticism.
Didn't everyone base their love on his record breaking broken tackle stats that pff gave him? How's that working out in the NFL? The guy has such a slow juke. He wastes so much body movement avoiding tacklers that it makes the move look cool when he actually pulls it off. The problem is he is so damn slow. How did i see this coming and Ryan Pace didn't?
Didn't everyone base their love on his record breaking broken tackle stats that pff gave him? How's that working out in the NFL? The guy has such a slow juke. He wastes so much body movement avoiding tacklers that it makes the move look cool when he actually pulls it off. The problem is he is so damn slow. How did i see this coming and Ryan Pace didn't?
12 team ppr 4 point pass td
Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots
14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%
Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle
12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr
Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample
20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard
Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver
Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots
14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%
Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle
12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr
Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample
20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard
Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver
Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
This.TheNuts wrote: ↑Sat Jul 25, 2020 9:47 am I don't remember hearing all this monty hate last year. I never liked him at all. It was beyond dumb to invest the pick the Bears did for a JAG running back at best. At least take a shot on a guy with actual athleticism.
Didn't everyone base their love on his record breaking broken tackle stats that pff gave him? How's that working out in the NFL? The guy has such a slow juke. He wastes so much body movement avoiding tacklers that it makes the move look cool when he actually pulls it off. The problem is he is so damn slow. How did i see this coming and Ryan Pace didn't?
The Bears spent their first pick on him, 2nd rounder, since they had traded their 1st rounder that year. I was also baffled by the love he got last year and think the only current believers are those that got stuck drafting him and don't want to admit the mistake yet. His "jukes and missed tackles" only sets himself up for big hits by the next defender because he is too slow to get out of those moves and make positive yardage from them. He was an easy pass for me last year and is a do not touch this year in any trades.
Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
1. Jacobs was the consensus RB1 by actual draft analysts last year
2. Jacobs went in the 1st round while DMont went in the 3rd
3. Jacobs is tied to a great OL, an offense built around him, and a coach that is heavily invested in his success
4. Just use the eye test - Jacobs looked like one of the best backs in the league last year
5. Injuries - why do you think Jacobs has long term health issues? The fact that he actually managed to play at a high level through a shoulder tear makes me want him even more
6. Pass catching - one of his strengths out of Bama was his pass catching ability; makes sense that he wouldn’t be used as much on 3rd downs as a rookie given his shoulder injury and that he was just learning the offense; still lots of upside here
I actually own Chubb in one league and have been trying to trade him for Jacobs all offseason with no luck
2. Jacobs went in the 1st round while DMont went in the 3rd
3. Jacobs is tied to a great OL, an offense built around him, and a coach that is heavily invested in his success
4. Just use the eye test - Jacobs looked like one of the best backs in the league last year
5. Injuries - why do you think Jacobs has long term health issues? The fact that he actually managed to play at a high level through a shoulder tear makes me want him even more
6. Pass catching - one of his strengths out of Bama was his pass catching ability; makes sense that he wouldn’t be used as much on 3rd downs as a rookie given his shoulder injury and that he was just learning the offense; still lots of upside here
I actually own Chubb in one league and have been trying to trade him for Jacobs all offseason with no luck
Team 1 - 12 team PPR
QB: MRyan, MJones, CNewton, RFitz
RB: SBarkley, DSwift, CAkers, JMixon, AJDillon, LMurray, DarWilliams, GBernard
WR: SDiggs, ACooper, BAiyuk, JJones, LShenault, BCooks, KToney, KHamler, VJefferson
TE: JSmith, ISmith, ZErtz
Team 2 - 16 team, PPR, SF
QB: JBurrow, CWentz, ZWilson, Jimmy G
RB: SBarkley, DSwift, CAkers, BSnell, TGurley, DGuice
WR: JChase, BAiyuk, CSutton, THiggins, JJeudy, JReagor, BEdwards
TE: ISmith, HarBryant, DSample, TTremble
QB: MRyan, MJones, CNewton, RFitz
RB: SBarkley, DSwift, CAkers, JMixon, AJDillon, LMurray, DarWilliams, GBernard
WR: SDiggs, ACooper, BAiyuk, JJones, LShenault, BCooks, KToney, KHamler, VJefferson
TE: JSmith, ISmith, ZErtz
Team 2 - 16 team, PPR, SF
QB: JBurrow, CWentz, ZWilson, Jimmy G
RB: SBarkley, DSwift, CAkers, BSnell, TGurley, DGuice
WR: JChase, BAiyuk, CSutton, THiggins, JJeudy, JReagor, BEdwards
TE: ISmith, HarBryant, DSample, TTremble
Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
I wouldn't do that deal with you either, Jacobs is RB5 overall for me. Montgomery on the other hand probably isn't top 20, and I was a believer at one point too. I had 1.01, 1.02 and 1.04 in one league last year and took Jacobs, Montgomery, Harry (Sanders obviously went 3). I soon realized this was a mistake thankfully and was able to trade Montgomery + '20 3 for Hollywood + '20 2, and then earlier this offseason traded Hollywood in a package for 1.01 and get CEH. It was just pretty clear almost right away that Montgomery is a solid player, but won't ever been a real difference maker.
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
Jacobs is overvalued to me as a two down back and even then I can say with confidence Montgomery will not exceed him
Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
Because the monty being equal to Jacobs narrative never made sense last year and makes less sense now.
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Re: Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs
I remember the Seahawks quoting PFF's yards after contact for Penny. Imagine if the Seahawks had taken Chubb instead. He was the exact type of back they would love, but that PFF stat made it look like Penny was a beast to bring down. Unfortunately, if a LB touches your arm, and you run for an 80 yard touchdown untouched after that, all those yards after the LB barely touched you count as yards after contact. The word "contact" is a pretty loose term.
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