Swift vs Dobbins

[Mike11]

I already posted this privately a few places so I'll put it here:

Short answer: Dobbins.

Long answer: Both Dobbins & Swift are similar backs and both find themselves in a similar situation. The question is which situation is better. Swift will be competing with KJ while Dobbins will be competing with Ingram.

Baltimore was #1 in rushing with 206 yards per game. The Lions were towards the bottom with 103 yards per game. Take out Lamar Jackson's 75 yards per game, and Baltimore had 131 YPG, still good enough to put them top 10 in rushing. That's without subtracting other team QB carries, and without assuming the Ravens QB carries would be RB carries instead.

Simply put: Teams with mobile QBs also have RBs that get elevated stats. That being said, Dobbins is in a much better future position than Swift. Because of that, I would rather have Dobbins than Swift.

lol. Baltimore targeted their running backs a league low 51 times in Lamar's first full year. While teams that have mobile QBs tend to have better rushing efficiency, they also tend to have fewer targets. Houston, Buffalo, and Seattle produced the fourth, fifth, and sixth fewest targets. On average, in PPR leagues, targets are worth about 2.74 times as much as a carry. In a league where Ekeler was the RB4 with 557 rushing yards, Alvin Kamara was RB9 with 797 rushing yards, and James White was RB18 with 263(!!) rushing yards, (while 1000 yard rusher Marlon Mack was RB22) I don't think it makes sense to structure an entire evaluation of a situation around rushing yards.

I suspect Detroit is being undervalued as a landing spot because we remember how bad their offense was when Stafford got hurt, and because Kerryon Johnson (who was an overrated prospect to begin with) busted there. They still managed 101 RB targets last year (21st) and 141 in 2018 (4th) with Stafford under center. I think both of these situations have their benefits and their negatives, and characterizing Dobbins' situation as comprehensively better than Swift's because Baltimore produce more rushing yards is misguided.

If you want to make an argument for Dobbins' situation, it's that Baltimore's offense is just better as a whole and is going to produce more touchdowns. Long term, the argument is that Baltimore's organization is better than Detroit's, so they're more likely to remain good than Detroit is to become good.

I’m with you. I personally like Swift as the better talent and think people are really getting too worked up about his landing spot and ignoring some important points.

Dobbins was the last big five rb to get drafted. I think this was partially scheme fit (Ohio runs a lot of shotgun) and partially not having combine information. Everyone seems to be ignoring that all the big spots passed on him including Miami who passed multiple times (didn’t take an rb early though so maybe a wash).

I’m glad it was hit on how often the Ravens target running backs, the short answer is: not much. 26 receptions for Ingram last year and he can catch. Swifts receiving floor is strong and there’s no reason to assume Kerryon is there past next year either. The Lions and Stafford made Theo Riddick a flex play with how much they used to dump off to their rbs, that’s going to benefit Swift. I also want to point out PFF had the lions as the 11th best line last year and they drafted two more guards this year. Edge goes to Baltimore on line no question but don’t just assume their line is garbage.

Finally, Ingram might be back next year, yes they have an out but he’s a strong part of the Ravens culture (speaking as a Ravens fan here). If Ingram is there next year you’re now waiting two years for Dobbins and that’s not including that he’ll still be sharing carries with LJax and Gus the Bus (potentially). Dobbins efficiency will most likely be really good but it will have to be because I don’t anticipate bellcow touches even next year (202 carries for Ingram albeit missed some games). Ingram had weeks last year where he didn’t get a lot of touches and it hurt his output unless he got touchdowns.

FYI I took Swift over Dobbins at 4 fwiw to put my money where my mouth is. I’d like a share of Dobbins too, I do like him and want him doubly so because of my Ravens homer showing. That being said, it’s Swift for me.

[Sriracha]

As a Kerryon owner, would it make more sense to nab Swift here instead of Dobbins?

Was thinking the same thing but I would agree with FantasyFreak in that it shouldn’t influence the decision. Just pray for KJ to find a new home down the line.

Dobbins clearly has a better long term situation and supporting cast. Problem was I had Swift ahead of him pre-draft so this is causing some conflicting thoughts on how to rank the two. Can’t argue with landing spot and point scoring potential though in their respective offenses. If Ingram can rush for 15 TDs...

I've been through that decision tree two times already; and have chosen Dobbins every single time

I just feel like Dobbins is a better talent than Swift; in a better situation. Not sure if I agree with people that think Swift will have a better 2020 than Dobbins either... BAL's offense will likely regress a bit, but they should still be the best rushing attack in the NFL. Ingram is already 30 and will turn 31 next season. Age will be a factor, but the argument that Dobbins is a better RB than Ingram has ever been could also be made, which leads to multiple avenues of Dobbins overtaking Ingram for the starting gig; meanwhile Swift's competition for touches, Kerryon's issues aren't talent/age related: it's health related... and those issues will be mitigated by Swift taking over lead back duties.

[Factory of Sadness]

I have been taking Swift over Dobbins, but in every other draft I have been in, Dobbins has gone before Swift. It's close and I think the reality that one franchise is elite and the other is a dumpster fire is hard to ignore. I just prefer Swift as a player as I think his passing game ceiling is much higher and that's what can elevate you to the upper tier of fantasy RBs. Been tough to go against the grain, both because I do like Dobbins and because the rationale for taking him makes total sense. I think you win more often than you lose by taking who you perceive as the more talented player, rather than reacting to landing spot. So I'm jealous of people who preferred Dobbins pre-draft, because for them this is a no-brainer. I am happy whenever I think about Swift the player, but when I get an image of Matt Patricia and his stupid pencil, I feel slightly sick...

[Orenthal Shames]

Dobbins for me. But I expect swift to have the better 2020 season.

x2

[Ice]

Taking Swift over Dobbins.

He is the better overall RB in my eyes as a true 3 down back. Like his ability out of the backfield in the receiving game much better.

Top 4 in this class are quite close.

[Jigga94]

Taking Swift over Dobbins.

He is the better overall RB in my eyes as a true 3 down back. Like his ability out of the backfield in the receiving game much better.

Top 4 in this class are quite close.

I think that bolded point can be easy to forget for most people around his this post draft type of year

[Cameron Giles]

I have Dobbins as RB1 in this class. I still love the prime Doug Martin comparison and Baltimore's offense is a great fit for his skillset.

[Johnny B. Goode]

Dobbins by a long shot. If Dobbins ran the combine he could be in the 1.01 debate. His spot was more perfect than CEH IMO

Swift is bound to be ruined by Detroits ineptitude. And he has a history of being banged up.

[Mike11]

Dobbins by a long shot. If Dobbins ran the combine he could be in the 1.01 debate. His spot was more perfect than CEH IMO

Swift is bound to be ruined by Detroits ineptitude. And he has a history of being banged up.

JK Dobbins played in 42 college games and D’Andre Swift played in 43. Most people say Dobbins down sophomore year was due to an ankle injury and he missed the combine because he was banged up. If your tie breaker is landing spot, that’s fine but in no way has JK stayed less banged up than Swift.

[Johnny B. Goode]

Dobbins by a long shot. If Dobbins ran the combine he could be in the 1.01 debate. His spot was more perfect than CEH IMO

Swift is bound to be ruined by Detroits ineptitude. And he has a history of being banged up.

JK Dobbins played in 42 college games and D’Andre Swift played in 43. Most people say Dobbins down sophomore year was due to an ankle injury and he missed the combine because he was banged up. If your tie breaker is landing spot, that’s fine but in no way has JK stayed less banged up than Swift.

Swifts known injury history:
Nagging foot and ankle injuries, 2018
Groin surgery, Spring 2019
Shoulder, Dec. 2019

Dobbins never missed a game due to injury. Speculate all you want about 2018, there was no documented injury to my knowledge

He suffered a pretty significant injury in the last game, that yes had him missing the combine likely because his draft prep was delayed due to his recovery.


You say they played the same number of games, which is great and all but its meaningless. Let's talk career touches:
Swift had 513 touches in his college career
Dobbins had 796

If your argument is that they were both equally banged up, I'll take the guy who was just as banged up, according to you, getting 1.5x the workload. That's the issue, IMO- Swift was hurt a lot while in a significant timeshare; he never was able to show that he can be given a large workload

I had Swift as my RB3 predraft, and hes my RB4 post. Dobbins was my RB2 predraft and RB2 post. His landing spot was the most perfect of all the RBs.

[Mike11]

Dobbins by a long shot. If Dobbins ran the combine he could be in the 1.01 debate. His spot was more perfect than CEH IMO

Swift is bound to be ruined by Detroits ineptitude. And he has a history of being banged up.

JK Dobbins played in 42 college games and D’Andre Swift played in 43. Most people say Dobbins down sophomore year was due to an ankle injury and he missed the combine because he was banged up. If your tie breaker is landing spot, that’s fine but in no way has JK stayed less banged up than Swift.

Swifts known injury history:
Nagging foot and ankle injuries, 2018
Groin surgery, Spring 2019
Shoulder, Dec. 2019

Dobbins never missed a game due to injury. Speculate all you want about 2018, there was no documented injury to my knowledge

He suffered a pretty significant injury in the last game, that yes had him missing the combine likely because his draft prep was delayed due to his recovery.


You say they played the same number of games, which is great and all but its meaningless. Let's talk career touches:
Swift had 513 touches in his college career
Dobbins had 796

If your argument is that they were both equally banged up, I'll take the guy who was just as banged up, according to you, getting 1.5x the workload. That's the issue, IMO- Swift was hurt a lot while in a significant timeshare; he never was able to show that he can be given a large workload

I had Swift as my RB3 predraft, and hes my RB4 post. Dobbins was my RB2 predraft and RB2 post. His landing spot was the most perfect of all the RBs.

That's all valid, conversely you can make the argument that Swift having less tread on his tires will help keep him fresh for longer. I think its important to note you had Dobbins RB 2 predraft. The only scenario where people will likely be preferring Swift is the truthers who had him 1.1-1.2 predraft that don't want to move off their rankings due to landing spot, which again in a class this loaded is valid.

You can also argue it wasn't a good look for Mike Weber to get as many touches sophomore year as he did working in with Dobbins.

[FantasyFreak]

JK Dobbins played in 42 college games and D’Andre Swift played in 43. Most people say Dobbins down sophomore year was due to an ankle injury and he missed the combine because he was banged up. If your tie breaker is landing spot, that’s fine but in no way has JK stayed less banged up than Swift.

Swifts known injury history:
Nagging foot and ankle injuries, 2018
Groin surgery, Spring 2019
Shoulder, Dec. 2019

Dobbins never missed a game due to injury. Speculate all you want about 2018, there was no documented injury to my knowledge

He suffered a pretty significant injury in the last game, that yes had him missing the combine likely because his draft prep was delayed due to his recovery.


You say they played the same number of games, which is great and all but its meaningless. Let's talk career touches:
Swift had 513 touches in his college career
Dobbins had 796

If your argument is that they were both equally banged up, I'll take the guy who was just as banged up, according to you, getting 1.5x the workload. That's the issue, IMO- Swift was hurt a lot while in a significant timeshare; he never was able to show that he can be given a large workload

I had Swift as my RB3 predraft, and hes my RB4 post. Dobbins was my RB2 predraft and RB2 post. His landing spot was the most perfect of all the RBs.

That's all valid, conversely you can make the argument that Swift having less tread on his tires will help keep him fresh for longer. I think its important to note you had Dobbins RB 2 predraft. The only scenario where people will likely be preferring Swift is the truthers who had him 1.1-1.2 predraft that don't want to move off their rankings due to landing spot, which again in a class this loaded is valid.

You can also argue it wasn't a good look for Mike Weber to get as many touches sophomore year as he did working in with Dobbins.

Same argument can be made for Elijah Holyfield in Swift's sophomore year.

[Ice]

Lower touches in college doesn't really hurt and could help where RB's get drafted. J. Jacobs had 299 touches in college.

These two were durable in college and played through injuries.

Pretty safe to say both Ohio St and Georgia are RB factories.

[Mike11]

Swifts known injury history:
Nagging foot and ankle injuries, 2018
Groin surgery, Spring 2019
Shoulder, Dec. 2019

Dobbins never missed a game due to injury. Speculate all you want about 2018, there was no documented injury to my knowledge

He suffered a pretty significant injury in the last game, that yes had him missing the combine likely because his draft prep was delayed due to his recovery.


You say they played the same number of games, which is great and all but its meaningless. Let's talk career touches:
Swift had 513 touches in his college career
Dobbins had 796

If your argument is that they were both equally banged up, I'll take the guy who was just as banged up, according to you, getting 1.5x the workload. That's the issue, IMO- Swift was hurt a lot while in a significant timeshare; he never was able to show that he can be given a large workload

I had Swift as my RB3 predraft, and hes my RB4 post. Dobbins was my RB2 predraft and RB2 post. His landing spot was the most perfect of all the RBs.

That's all valid, conversely you can make the argument that Swift having less tread on his tires will help keep him fresh for longer. I think its important to note you had Dobbins RB 2 predraft. The only scenario where people will likely be preferring Swift is the truthers who had him 1.1-1.2 predraft that don't want to move off their rankings due to landing spot, which again in a class this loaded is valid.

You can also argue it wasn't a good look for Mike Weber to get as many touches sophomore year as he did working in with Dobbins.

Same argument can be made for Elijah Holyfield in Swift's sophomore year.

Every Georgia RB splits carries, Smart always says this when he brings guys in that to keep them fresh he doesn't want any one of them working as true bellcows.

[PTW32]

Dobbins by a long shot. If Dobbins ran the combine he could be in the 1.01 debate. His spot was more perfect than CEH IMO

Swift is bound to be ruined by Detroits ineptitude. And he has a history of being banged up.

JK Dobbins played in 42 college games and D’Andre Swift played in 43. Most people say Dobbins down sophomore year was due to an ankle injury and he missed the combine because he was banged up. If your tie breaker is landing spot, that’s fine but in no way has JK stayed less banged up than Swift.

I like both and have them ranked 3 and 4 in this class.

I do beleive its a what have you done for me lately world and our last impression of Dobbins was him going for 200+ yards from scrimmage and gutting through the 2nd half with a pretty bad ankle against the #2 team in the country.

On the other hand it was Swift going for like 20 yards on a handful of touches against LSU while being banged up. (I know that had a bowl game he also didnt play in but did anyone care?)

Im not saying that if the injuries were switched the results would have been different. But i do wonder if thay has spmething to do with the narrative.