Swift vs Dobbins

[tominansky]

Superflex 12 teamer I'm sitting at 1.06 and have been told that Lamb will be the 1.04 which means my likely choice will be between Swift and Dobbins. From what I've seen, there is no consensus pick between these two so I'm curious what you guys think. Seems like Swift will be relevant faster than Dobbins but Dobbins has the higher ceiling in that high powered run first Ravens offense.

Torn between these two and can't make up my mind. What is making you lean towards one over the other?

[nathanq42]

I go with Dobbins. Had him higher Pre-draft, and I prefer his landing spot.

[Ericpritch5]

Dobbins. Had them both fairly equal before draft. Playing with Lamar is going to open up a lot more space for Dobbins to work with than Swift & the Lions. Also, I would rather have the threat of Ingram for a year than a timeshare with another young RB in DET.

[abloom]

Dobbins for me. But I expect swift to have the better 2020 season.

[Jigga94]

Dobbins for me. But I expect swift to have the better 2020 season.

Yeah probably will. I see them using Ingram a bit early on. Probably close to 50 50 down the stretch to keep everyone healthy

[Blueboy]

Dobbins pretty easily for me as well.

[jonniecakes]

As a Kerryon owner, would it make more sense to nab Swift here instead of Dobbins?

[FantasyFreak]

As a Kerryon owner, would it make more sense to nab Swift here instead of Dobbins?

I think you go with whoever you think will be better/produce more. I wouldn't let that influence the decision. IMO it's Dobbins.

[tominansky]

As a Kerryon owner, would it make more sense to nab Swift here instead of Dobbins?

Was thinking the same thing but I would agree with FantasyFreak in that it shouldn’t influence the decision. Just pray for KJ to find a new home down the line.

Dobbins clearly has a better long term situation and supporting cast. Problem was I had Swift ahead of him pre-draft so this is causing some conflicting thoughts on how to rank the two. Can’t argue with landing spot and point scoring potential though in their respective offenses. If Ingram can rush for 15 TDs...

[jonniecakes]

As a Kerryon owner, would it make more sense to nab Swift here instead of Dobbins?

Was thinking the same thing but I would agree with FantasyFreak in that it shouldn’t influence the decision. Just pray for KJ to find a new home down the line.

Dobbins clearly has a better long term situation and supporting cast. Problem was I had Swift ahead of him pre-draft so this is causing some conflicting thoughts on how to rank the two. Can’t argue with landing spot and point scoring potential though in their respective offenses. If Ingram can rush for 15 TDs...

This is where I'm at right now.

[chubnubbin]

Dobbins - great situation long term.

[MEuRaH]

I already posted this privately a few places so I'll put it here:

Short answer: Dobbins.

Long answer: Both Dobbins & Swift are similar backs and both find themselves in a similar situation. The question is which situation is better. Swift will be competing with KJ while Dobbins will be competing with Ingram.

Baltimore was #1 in rushing with 206 yards per game. The Lions were towards the bottom with 103 yards per game. Take out Lamar Jackson's 75 yards per game, and Baltimore had 131 YPG, still good enough to put them top 10 in rushing. That's without subtracting other team QB carries, and without assuming the Ravens QB carries would be RB carries instead.

Simply put: Teams with mobile QBs also have RBs that get elevated stats. That being said, Dobbins is in a much better future position than Swift. Because of that, I would rather have Dobbins than Swift.

[mgscott]

Dobbins pretty easily for me. Better back with more burst and big play potential. Both may struggle some this year due to time shares. I could see both Ingram and KJ being out of the picture next year. Baltimore offense is a lot stronger and more reliable long term. Dobbins seems more likely to be given and able to handle a bigger load. And, most importantly, I just like Dobbins overall a lot better as a RB.

[Sfoster2625]

Dobbins and it’s not even close for me

[OhCruelestRanter]

I already posted this privately a few places so I'll put it here:

Short answer: Dobbins.

Long answer: Both Dobbins & Swift are similar backs and both find themselves in a similar situation. The question is which situation is better. Swift will be competing with KJ while Dobbins will be competing with Ingram.

Baltimore was #1 in rushing with 206 yards per game. The Lions were towards the bottom with 103 yards per game. Take out Lamar Jackson's 75 yards per game, and Baltimore had 131 YPG, still good enough to put them top 10 in rushing. That's without subtracting other team QB carries, and without assuming the Ravens QB carries would be RB carries instead.

Simply put: Teams with mobile QBs also have RBs that get elevated stats. That being said, Dobbins is in a much better future position than Swift. Because of that, I would rather have Dobbins than Swift.

lol. Baltimore targeted their running backs a league low 51 times in Lamar's first full year. While teams that have mobile QBs tend to have better rushing efficiency, they also tend to have fewer targets. Houston, Buffalo, and Seattle produced the fourth, fifth, and sixth fewest targets. On average, in PPR leagues, targets are worth about 2.74 times as much as a carry. In a league where Ekeler was the RB4 with 557 rushing yards, Alvin Kamara was RB9 with 797 rushing yards, and James White was RB18 with 263(!!) rushing yards, (while 1000 yard rusher Marlon Mack was RB22) I don't think it makes sense to structure an entire evaluation of a situation around rushing yards.

I suspect Detroit is being undervalued as a landing spot because we remember how bad their offense was when Stafford got hurt, and because Kerryon Johnson (who was an overrated prospect to begin with) busted there. They still managed 101 RB targets last year (21st) and 141 in 2018 (4th) with Stafford under center. I think both of these situations have their benefits and their negatives, and characterizing Dobbins' situation as comprehensively better than Swift's because Baltimore produce more rushing yards is misguided.

If you want to make an argument for Dobbins' situation, it's that Baltimore's offense is just better as a whole and is going to produce more touchdowns. Long term, the argument is that Baltimore's organization is better than Detroit's, so they're more likely to remain good than Detroit is to become good.