Swift vs Dobbins

[OhCruelestRanter]

Ridiculous that we get to argue over backs this good at the 3, 4, or even 5 spot though. I have Swift a fraction higher, but would be delighted to get Dobbins if he's gone.

Mostly this. What a class. Just think if you had Etienne in Tampa instead of Vaughn, and Najee Harris in Pittsburgh instead of McFarland, and Chuba Hubbard on the Seahawks or something.

[Jigga94]

Ridiculous that we get to argue over backs this good at the 3, 4, or even 5 spot though. I have Swift a fraction higher, but would be delighted to get Dobbins if he's gone.

Mostly this. What a class. Just think if you had Etienne in Tampa instead of Vaughn, and Najee Harris in Pittsburgh instead of McFarland, and Chuba Hubbard on the Seahawks or something.

We'd have at least 3 more of this same thread!

[Lord_Varys]

Have you watched Swift and Dobbins in the passing game? One of them looks smooth, fluid and natural catching the ball. It isn't Dobbins.

Have you watched Detroit and Baltimore in the NFL? One of them produces RB fantasy points. It isn't Detroit.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Have you watched Swift and Dobbins in the passing game? One of them looks smooth, fluid and natural catching the ball. It isn't Dobbins.

Have you watched Detroit and Baltimore in the NFL? One of them produces RB fantasy points. It isn't Detroit.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Have you watched Swift and Dobbins in the passing game? One of them looks smooth, fluid and natural catching the ball. It isn't Dobbins.

Have you watched Detroit and Baltimore in the NFL? One of them produces RB fantasy points. It isn't Detroit.

Serious question- which team do you think will target RBs more often in the passing game?

[FantasyFreak]

Have you watched Detroit and Baltimore in the NFL? One of them produces RB fantasy points. It isn't Detroit.

Serious question- which team do you think will target RBs more often in the passing game?

I think it is probably Detroit, but that's not nearly enough to make it a better situation. Ingram was extremely efficient in the passing game last year. In 15 games, he caught 26 of his 29 targets for 247 yards and 5 TD's. That's 80.7 points in 15 games. 5.38 PPR points per game. The better situation is definitely Baltimore, but Swift may see more targets in Detroit.

[FantasyFreak]

Have you watched Swift and Dobbins in the passing game? One of them looks smooth, fluid and natural catching the ball. It isn't Dobbins.

I have. They both look good catching the ball. Dobbins looks fine catching the football. There are plenty of examples of him making difficult adjustments on balls that are not thrown that well. Completely disagree that Dobbins doesn't look natural catching the ball.

[Lord_Varys]

Have you watched Detroit and Baltimore in the NFL? One of them produces RB fantasy points. It isn't Detroit.

Serious question- which team do you think will target RBs more often in the passing game?

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports ... ion/rb.php

Detroit had 101. Baltimore had 51 (dead last). Definitely something to consider.

[bjd5211]

Serious question- which team do you think will target RBs more often in the passing game?

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports ... ion/rb.php

Detroit had 101. Baltimore had 51 (dead last). Definitely something to consider.

And how did Lions RBs fair in fantasy scoring vs Ravens RBs?

[OhCruelestRanter]

Serious question- which team do you think will target RBs more often in the passing game?

I think it is probably Detroit, but that's not nearly enough to make it a better situation. Ingram was extremely efficient in the passing game last year. In 15 games, he caught 26 of his 29 targets for 247 yards and 5 TD's. That's 80.7 points in 15 games. 5.38 PPR points per game. The better situation is definitely Baltimore, but Swift may see more targets in Detroit.

That kind of efficiency - a TD just under every 6 targets, is unsustainable. In fact, here's the list this decade of players who scored 15 touchdowns on 250 or fewer touches:

Mark Ingram. End of list. It's happened 25 times in history, 6 times since 2000, and no player has ever done it twice in a career. Chasing that type of touchdown rate is a fool's errand.

Baltimore is a very good situation, but it's not perfect, in large part because mobile QBs don't throw the ball to RBs and targets are nearly three times as valuable as carries. Detroit seems like a bad situation on the surface, but it isn't. The community is overvaluing the fantasy points scored by Mark Ingram and undervaluing the target differential between these two situations.

[Factory of Sadness]

Some of you seem to be remembering only the Matt Stafford deprived Lions of last year. That offense is no joke when he's healthy. Stafford used to absolutely pepper Theo Riddick with targets and QB tendency to throw to backs is pretty stable. If you put aside the notion of a curse, you're looking at a much improved line, Golladay and Marvin Jones out wide, a promising but raw TE and a high-end QB. Kerryon is a concern, but if Swift can dominate the backfield he is in a good situation.
I've no problem with the idea that Dobbins might be the better back. I like both of them a lot and have them close. The absolute certainty that landing spot makes Dobbins a lock to be a better choice though strikes me as short-sighted. Ask Chubb owners how much fun having him as your RB1 was late last year. A better run environment just doesn't matter as much as a better pass environment for PPR backs.

[FantasyFreak]

Some of you seem to be remembering only the Matt Stafford deprived Lions of last year. That offense is no joke when he's healthy. Stafford used to absolutely pepper Theo Riddick with targets and QB tendency to throw to backs is pretty stable. If you put aside the notion of a curse, you're looking at a much improved line, Golladay and Marvin Jones out wide, a promising but raw TE and a high-end QB. Kerryon is a concern, but if Swift can dominate the backfield he is in a good situation.
I've no problem with the idea that Dobbins might be the better back. I like both of them a lot and have them close. The absolute certainty that landing spot makes Dobbins a lock to be a better choice though strikes me as short-sighted. Ask Chubb owners how much fun having him as your RB1 was late last year. A better run environment just doesn't matter as much as a better pass environment for PPR backs.

Theo Riddick was an elite pass catching back for a few years. He played both WR and RB in college. I don't think seeing the Ravens as a better landing spot is short sighted at all. RB's value is a short term investment as it is. I really don't think Swift's PPR upside is as good as you say it is. The Lions have shown a tendency towards a committee approach under this regime, and I doubt that will change. Not sure how you think the line is looking much improved, they added a 3rd and 4th round guard in the draft, and a backup Tackle in FA. The "curse" as you call it, are facts that the Lions have not produced much in the way of RB production in a long time.

[Lord_Varys]

Some of you seem to be remembering only the Matt Stafford deprived Lions of last year. That offense is no joke when he's healthy. Stafford used to absolutely pepper Theo Riddick with targets and QB tendency to throw to backs is pretty stable.

I don't know if it's Stafford or if it was a side effect of Jim Bob Cooter and Joe Lombardi before him. They were both quick-pass guys. Daryl Bevel has historically not targetted the RB very much at all.

I just don't really know what to expect. We have two competing trends here and we're going to see which one wins in 2020. I think There should be a decent amount of targets for Swift and Kerryon both but not enough for Swift go get a significant PPR boost. That's my best guess, but we're all just guessing.

[Lord_Varys]

Swift can dominate the backfield he is in a good situation.

This is one thing I'm pretty sure doesn't happen. Patricia and Quinn have both been adamant that this is a RBBC league and that they want 2 or 3 guys to share the load.

Same thing will happen in Baltimore for the record, but one offense is known for poor RB production, and one is known for the opposite, so we'll see...

[Factory of Sadness]

People seem to want to have it both ways with Detroit. Kerryon's value was in the tank because he was an injury bust and would never stay healthy. Now Swift's value is dropping because Kerryon is there. I prefer to draft the player, not the landing spot because the league changes so fast, but I'm really not sure why the Lions is being seen as a terrible spot. Yes, the franchise has been historically unkind to RBs, but the best of them recently have been injured and we don't believe in curses do we? PFF aren't gospel, but they had the Lions ranked 11 last year- and bad QB play hurts you there too. The Rams were 31st, but we're not panicking about Akers.
I get that people prefer the Ravens as a landing spot. Other than the stink of past Lions teams though, I don't get why the Lions are seen as a terrible spot.