Tua or Burrow

[RoyalPalmer]

Who do you like more and why?

I love Tua's skillset and feel more comfortable about his health, I also like the direction Miami is going in. For teams with healthy QB situations (SF and non) I'm leaning on taking him over Burrow. Burrow's record setting year is pretty hard to overlook and the floor is much higher. I just feel unsure that that year was a situation where everything went well and isn't how he will perform at the next level. I'm worried he will be a great game manager but not a great fantasy producer.

[abloom]

Burrow due to tua's past injuries

[Shankopotamus]

Burrow. Tua is made of Sam Bradford's leftover parts.

[Ice]

Burrow. Tua is made of Sam Bradford's leftover parts.

Okay; I laughed out loud!

[Mike11]

Burrow not close for me. Injuries not withstanding tell me what Tua does better than burrow?

Size: Burrow has prototypical elite size, Tua is 6 ft (not debilitating because we now have Brees, Wilson, Kyler and Baker doing it, but yes, I prefer when they're not 6 ft)
Mobility: Burrow is easily as mobile as Tua (he moves around the pocket incredibly well) and is MORE athletic because he moves that fluidly at a bigger size
Accuracy: Both are extremely accurate, Tua's is definitely not better than Burrows
Arm Strength: Another push, Tua isn't known for a rocket arm and neither is burrow
Decision making / Release: Burrow has a better release and makes quicker reads (this is well documented and running a protection 5 with 4 receivers and 1 rb helps defend this point, Burrow pre-snap reads are elite)
Draft Capital: Both went very early, only difference is even the Dolphins were on record trying to make a godfather offer for Burrow (They would've preferred him over Tua as well)
Health: Burrow, not close

Finally,

Team Fit: Burrow has much better weapons to work with as of now, not even something that can be argued. That being said really like Flores and the Dolphins organization so this could become a push but as of now Burrow has the better team around him

Don't overthink this. Burrow is not a game manager, he threw 60 TDs in the SEC. He can make every throw and will be asked to throw early and often. I legitimately think with the exception of Luck he's the second best prospect to come out at 1.01 in the past 10 years. Newton is right behind him at 3.

[FantasyFreak]

Burrow. His rushing upside and his ability to handle pressure far better than Tua (or anyone else for that matter). Without even bringing in the injuries, those are 2 things that I consider reason enough. Tua did not do well overall against tough competition compared to Burrow, either.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Burrow not close for me. Injuries not withstanding tell me what Tua does better than burrow?

Size: Burrow has prototypical elite size, Tua is 6 ft (not debilitating because we now have Brees, Wilson, Kyler and Baker doing it, but yes, I prefer when they're not 6 ft)
Mobility: Burrow is easily as mobile as Tua (he moves around the pocket incredibly well) and is MORE athletic because he moves that fluidly at a bigger size
Accuracy: Both are extremely accurate, Tua's is definitely not better than Burrows
Arm Strength: Another push, Tua isn't known for a rocket arm and neither is burrow
Decision making / Release: Burrow has a better release and makes quicker reads (this is well documented and running a protection 5 with 4 receivers and 1 rb helps defend this point, Burrow pre-snap reads are elite)
Draft Capital: Both went very early, only difference is even the Dolphins were on record trying to make a godfather offer for Burrow (They would've preferred him over Tua as well)
Health: Burrow, not close

Finally,

Team Fit: Burrow has much better weapons to work with as of now, not even something that can be argued. That being said really like Flores and the Dolphins organization so this could become a push but as of now Burrow has the better team around him

Don't overthink this. Burrow is not a game manager, he threw 60 TDs in the SEC. He can make every throw and will be asked to throw early and often. I legitimately think with the exception of Luck he's the second best prospect to come out at 1.01 in the past 10 years. Newton is right behind him at 3.

Thanks for the detailed post. I agree with your overall premise, but there a few points where I disagree.

First, mobility- I'm not sure what you're basing this on or how you're justifying it. I would call this even, and if pressed to pick one would lean toward Tua. FootballOutsiders modeled functional mobility and Tua's was the best in the class, for what that's worth.1

Secon, arm strength- I wouldn't call this a push. Burrow's max velocity is comfortably higher than Tua's. This is easily Burrow.2

Third- decision making and release... I'm not sure why you're lumping those together. Saying Burrow has a better release is contradicted by the evidence. Tua's release is just faster- in fact his fast release is one of the best parts of his entire profile. Burrow does seem to make decision faster than Tua, and I don't disagree with saying his combination of decision making and release is better than Tua's, but saying "Burrow has a better release" is directly contradicted their average release times.2

Fourth- Draft Capital. The Dolphins never went "on record" trying to make a godfather offer for Burrow. We have no idea if that's true- that's all conjecture. In any case, Burrow went earlier; that actually happened. The thing we know for sure is that one team preferred Burrow.

Two things you didn't mention- Tua played with arguably the best supporting cast of offensive talent of all time, advantage Burrow. Burrow wasn't good until he was a 22-23 year old senior; advantage Tua.

I agree with you on the rest. If you're in a superflex league and you can get a ton of value by moving off Burrow for Tua, I'd probably do that. If you can't, I'd probably just take Burrow because he seems safer and the situation in Cincinnati seems better- although I agree with you that the Dolphins org seems smarter so who knows how long that holds.

Sources:
1.https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... model-2020
2. https://medium.com/@thetim_dix/nfl-draf ... 9abd897399

[Cult of Dionysus]

https://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2020/ ... 36721&O=17

[remedy29]

In a single QB league, it is Tua for me. In a single QB league, I want the greatest upside at QB. I'll be able to find an average QB fairly easily.
In SF, I can see taking Burrow because he certainly has less risk.

When watching Burrow, I always felt that he was able to do the pre-snap reads and throw jump balls to the single covered WR. While at LSU, his WRs were more talented than the CBs. Not sure that will happen in the NFL to the same extent.

Also, I believe in the Miami coaching staff. I think they'll be building a very strong team in the next few years.
There is no way anyone can like or trust the Cincinnati organization.


As Todd McShay wrote at ESPN.com, Tagovailoa has the best arm talent in the class of 2020—hands down: "Tagovailoa has elite accuracy at all three levels, but particularly when throwing downfield. He has a smooth delivery, fast eyes and good arm strength. And the 6'1", 218-pound lefty also does a great job anticipating and leading his receivers into the ball with high-end touch."

[MattDeezy]

https://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2020/ ... 36721&O=17

I have 1.01 in SF and truly curious what made you choose Tua over Burrow there? Currently leaning Burrow but looking for more perspectives.

[FantasyFreak]

https://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2020/ ... 36721&O=17

I have 1.01 in SF and truly curious what made you choose Tua over Burrow there? Currently leaning Burrow but looking for more perspectives.

He thinks Burrow looks like a preppy douche, and guys that look like him don't generally succeed. I wish I was joking.

[OhCruelestRanter]

https://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2020/ ... 36721&O=17

I have 1.01 in SF and truly curious what made you choose Tua over Burrow there? Currently leaning Burrow but looking for more perspectives.

He thinks Burrow looks like a preppy douche, and guys that look like him don't generally succeed. I wish I was joking.

Both Burrow and Stafford look like the guy in college who was way too into beer pong and owned multiple pieces of apparel from Barstool Sports.

[wickerkat1212]

And where would you all put Herbert? Distant third? Close third? I've seen SOME websites put him ahead of Tua (I assume due to the injury history). I see a Josh Allen / Big Ben hybrid.

[FantasyFreak]

And where would you all put Herbert? Distant third? Close third? I've seen SOME websites put him ahead of Tua (I assume due to the injury history). I see a Josh Allen / Big Ben hybrid.

He's nothing like Ben IMO. Ben has the ability to work off script and extend the play, Herbert not so much. Herbert does not handle pressure well, and Ben does.

[MattDeezy]

https://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2020/ ... 36721&O=17

I have 1.01 in SF and truly curious what made you choose Tua over Burrow there? Currently leaning Burrow but looking for more perspectives.

He thinks Burrow looks like a preppy douche, and guys that look like him don't generally succeed. I wish I was joking.

Are you taking Burrow over Tua if you had to choose?

*edit: disregard - should’ve scrolled up for the answer.