Let’s settle it: CEH or JT

[PR0v3]

I think so. If the NFL doesn't view him as the clear top option, I don't see why fantasy players should. It seemed like he was the #1 RB for 99% of fantasy players post-combine, but he was obviously not viewed as such by the NFL. I would expect a more varied mix of fantasy #1 RB opinions pre-draft if he was valued in line with the NFL.

This is a flawed take to me. For all we know every other NFL team did have JT as the highest ranked RB. All we know is one team valued the fit CEH brought to the team better. JT doesn't fit one offense as well as CEH. Doesn't by any means indicate that the entire league values CEH higher.

I find that unlikely. Two teams valued different RBs more than JT. It seems reasonable to believe that others did as well, given this info. I'm sure some had JT as their #1 though, too. However, it seemed like 90-99% of fantasy internet posters had JT #1, and nobody who had CEH #1 would have been taken seriously. Given what happened in the draft, if JT was appropriately valued I would have expected to see much more healthy debate regarding his 1.01 status, rather than having him as a near lock for 1.01.

When unquestioned top talent options become available in the draft, the NFL will draft the player then change their scheme. If teams thought JT didn't fit their offense as well as someone else in the class, that just means JT isn't viewed as a clearly superior talent, which again points to JT being overvalued.

[bjd5211]

The Colts very nearly took JT at 34 (only 2 picks after CEH) instead of Pittman, watch "With the Next Pick" on their YouTube page. They just made the calculated gamble that they had the better chance of getting both of them by taking Pittman first, and obviously with Mack already on the roster they were a little more protected if they didn't get him.

[OhCruelestRanter]

By the same logic, the entire NFL must think Ruggs was the best WR in the draft because the Raiders took him as the first WR.

This. Far fewer people are making an argument that the NFL thinks Ruggs is the best WR. I'm not seeing a ton of people hammering Brandon Aiyuk over Higgins and Mims, or Antonio Gibson over Ke'Shawn Vaughn. Draft capital matters a ton, but the degree to which being drafted at 32 vs. 35 vs. 41 matters is a lot less clear, and considering how the RB position has been de-emphasized recently, it's even less clear.

What we know is that KC thought CEH was the best fit for their team. We know Detroit thought Swift was the best fit for their team, with the exception that they may have preferred CEH. We know Indy thought Taylor was the best fit for their team, with the exceptions that they may have preferred CEH or Swift, etc. We'll never know what 31 GMs thought of CEH vs. Taylor.

It also seems that people are forgetting that a big part of the reason draft capital matters is that it implies opportunity. Second round picks do better than fifth round picks because second round picks are generally drafted by teams that believe in them enough to give them an opportunity. Using that information to say that "the NFL believes" that the guy at 32 is better than the guy at 41 doesn't seem like a proper interpretation of the available data.

[PR0v3]

By the same logic, the entire NFL must think Ruggs was the best WR in the draft because the Raiders took him as the first WR.

This. Far fewer people are making an argument that the NFL thinks Ruggs is the best WR. I'm not seeing a ton of people hammering Brandon Aiyuk over Higgins and Mims, or Antonio Gibson over Ke'Shawn Vaughn. Draft capital matters a ton, but the degree to which being drafted at 32 vs. 35 vs. 41 matters is a lot less clear, and considering how the RB position has been de-emphasized recently, it's even less clear.

What we know is that KC thought CEH was the best fit for their team. We know Detroit thought Swift was the best fit for their team, with the exception that they may have preferred CEH. We know Indy thought Taylor was the best fit for their team, with the exceptions that they may have preferred CEH or Swift, etc. We'll never know what 31 GMs thought of CEH vs. Taylor.

It also seems that people are forgetting that a big part of the reason draft capital matters is that it implies opportunity. Second round picks do better than fifth round picks because second round picks are generally drafted by teams that believe in them enough to give them an opportunity. Using that information to say that "the NFL believes" that the guy at 32 is better than the guy at 41 doesn't seem like a proper interpretation of the available data.

Teams don't draft for fit when presented with clearly superior talents. They take the talent then adjust the scheme. See: Fournette, CMC, Barkley, Zeke, etc. Fit comes into play when the talent is comparable. Team's passing on JT for "fit" just means that they don't view JT as a clearly superior option. If they did, they would take him and adjust the scheme. I'm not sure how Taylor can be viewed as the clear top talent when it's clear the NFL doesn't think he is. There should have been much more debate about his top RB status, given there were clear signs he wasn't viewed as the clear top dog.

[bjd5211]

But it's NOT clear that the NFL doesn't think he is, only that KC preferred CEH to JT.

[PR0v3]

But it's NOT clear that the NFL doesn't think he is, only that KC preferred CEH to JT.

I think it is. Two teams passing on JT for two different RBs indicates to me that JT is not viewed as a clearly superior talent by the NFL. If you choose believe they are the only two teams that had RBs over JT though, you do you.

[bjd5211]

Indy was going to take him at 34 if they had gone with a RB, so they at minimum viewed him as the #2 RB but more likely as their #1.

[PR0v3]

I don't deny that some teams may have had him as their #1.

[Cameron Giles]

But it's NOT clear that the NFL doesn't think he is, only that KC preferred CEH to JT.

I think it is. Two teams passing on JT for two different RBs indicates to me that JT is not viewed as a clearly superior talent by the NFL. If you choose believe they are the only two teams that had RBs over JT though, you do you.

This is a giant leap of logic.

[bjd5211]

So your theory on the NFL as a whole not viewing JT as the #1 RB in the draft is false.

[PR0v3]

But it's NOT clear that the NFL doesn't think he is, only that KC preferred CEH to JT.

I think it is. Two teams passing on JT for two different RBs indicates to me that JT is not viewed as a clearly superior talent by the NFL. If you choose believe they are the only two teams that had RBs over JT though, you do you.

This is a giant leap of logic.

Really? Even if only 5 teams did not have him as the #1 ranked RB (2 are confirmed), that would mean at least 15% of the league did not value him as the top RB. Did 15% of fantasy owners not value him as the top RB pre-draft? Didn't seem like it to me.

[PR0v3]

So your theory on the NFL as a whole not viewing JT as the #1 RB in the draft is false.

The NFL as a whole did not view JT as the #1 RB. We know this because two teams drafted different RBs before him.

[bjd5211]

So your theory on the NFL as a whole not viewing JT as the #1 RB in the draft is false.

The NFL as a whole did not view JT as the #1 RB. We know this because two teams drafted different RBs before him.

No, we know KC ranked CEH over him, and Indy was taking JT over Swift if they had taken a RB at 34.

[PR0v3]

So your theory on the NFL as a whole not viewing JT as the #1 RB in the draft is false.

The NFL as a whole did not view JT as the #1 RB. We know this because two teams drafted different RBs before him.

No, we know KC ranked CEH over him, and Indy was taking JT over Swift if they had taken a RB at 34.

But Indy didn't take him at 34 because they figured didn't have to, since, you know, they realized other teams valued other RBs more.

Anyways, I'm getting tired of this. If you guys really believe that JT's fantasy ranking was in proportion to the NFL's view of him in the class, have at it. Seems pretty clear to me it wasn't though, and that he is overvalued in fantasy circles relative to the NFL.

[bjd5211]

The NFL as a whole did not view JT as the #1 RB. We know this because two teams drafted different RBs before him.

No, we know KC ranked CEH over him, and Indy was taking JT over Swift if they had taken a RB at 34.

But Indy didn't take him at 34 because they figured didn't have to, since, you know, they realized other teams valued other RBs more.

No, because other teams valued other POSITIONS more than RB.