Fournette or Gurley in PPR?

[pvillebiker]

Who would you take in dynasty now - Fournette or Gurley straight up, no additives? Fournette has his issues, but looks locked into elite opportunity / upside. Gurley's health issues are almost as obvious as his talent.

Still, boil it down to one or the other if you have to hold for at least the upcoming season.

[hoos89]

Fournette only played 8 games last season and 13 the year before. Gurley played 14 last year and prior to that hadn't missed a game due to injury since his rookie season. Yes Gurley has injury concerns, but I'd argue that Fournette's are as significant (plus some character questions) and Gurley is the superior talent. If you're someone who is concerned about Gurley's injury risk, then selling low for Fournette makes absolutely no sense.

[Gator Sens]

I would still gamble on Gurley. There is hope for him to stay healthy whereas Fournette has missed a lot of time already in his young career. Gurley has also shown to be elite while Fournette has not.

[pvillebiker]

Fournette only played 8 games last season and 13 the year before. Gurley played 14 last year and prior to that hadn't missed a game due to injury since his rookie season. Yes Gurley has injury concerns, but I'd argue that Fournette's are as significant (plus some character questions) and Gurley is the superior talent. If you're someone who is concerned about Gurley's injury risk, then selling low for Fournette makes absolutely no sense.

Unless you believe this time next year Lenny's higher than Gurley. Here's one scenario that could happen:
1. Lenny returns to 2017 form this year or even close to it. Stays reasonably healthy.
2. Gurley's workload is lightened up more than people think. Seems obvious that even if he manages to avoid a knee-peat (see what I did there?) most of the season, the Rams will fade him in the regular season to preserve him for the post season.

Dynasty is about the present and future (maybe more so?). Gurley's arrow is clearly pointing down. The question is how far does he drop before stabilizing or even turning around?

Either way,

[hoos89]

Fournette only played 8 games last season and 13 the year before. Gurley played 14 last year and prior to that hadn't missed a game due to injury since his rookie season. Yes Gurley has injury concerns, but I'd argue that Fournette's are as significant (plus some character questions) and Gurley is the superior talent. If you're someone who is concerned about Gurley's injury risk, then selling low for Fournette makes absolutely no sense.

Unless you believe this time next year Lenny's higher than Gurley. Here's one scenario that could happen:
1. Lenny returns to 2017 form this year or even close to it. Stays reasonably healthy.
2. Gurley's workload is lightened up more than people think. Seems obvious that even if he manages to avoid a knee-peat (see what I did there?) most of the season, the Rams will fade him in the regular season to preserve him for the post season.

Dynasty is about the present and future (maybe more so?). Gurley's arrow is clearly pointing down. The question is how far does he drop before stabilizing or even turning around?

Either way,

This is pure speculation. You're trading one player with injury concerns for another player with injury concerns who is currently significantly less valuable. What if Gurley's workload is cut less than we think, he plays all 15 games during the fantasy season and Fournette continues to have hamstring issues? If you're trying to offload injury risk, then why would you want Fournette? And if Gurley's arrow is pointing down, where is Fournette's pointing? Also...Fournette only averaged 3.9 YPC in 2017. That's not great....I don't want to sell Gurley for a guy with significant injury concerns whom I'm hoping will develop into an inefficient volume play.

[pvillebiker]

Fournette only played 8 games last season and 13 the year before. Gurley played 14 last year and prior to that hadn't missed a game due to injury since his rookie season. Yes Gurley has injury concerns, but I'd argue that Fournette's are as significant (plus some character questions) and Gurley is the superior talent. If you're someone who is concerned about Gurley's injury risk, then selling low for Fournette makes absolutely no sense.

Unless you believe this time next year Lenny's higher than Gurley. Here's one scenario that could happen:
1. Lenny returns to 2017 form this year or even close to it. Stays reasonably healthy.
2. Gurley's workload is lightened up more than people think. Seems obvious that even if he manages to avoid a knee-peat (see what I did there?) most of the season, the Rams will fade him in the regular season to preserve him for the post season.

Dynasty is about the present and future (maybe more so?). Gurley's arrow is clearly pointing down. The question is how far does he drop before stabilizing or even turning around?

Either way,

This is pure speculation. You're trading one player with injury concerns for another player with injury concerns who is currently significantly less valuable. What if Gurley's workload is cut less than we think, he plays all 15 games during the fantasy season and Fournette continues to have hamstring issues? If you're trying to offload injury risk, then why would you want Fournette? And if Gurley's arrow is pointing down, where is Fournette's pointing? Also...Fournette only averaged 3.9 YPC in 2017. That's not great....I don't want to sell Gurley for a guy with significant injury concerns whom I'm hoping will develop into an inefficient volume play.

Fair enough, but not sure I'd call it pure speculation. We're supposed to look forward and consider potentially likely outcomes in dynasty aren't we? If you're looking at the typical 3-year dynasty window, objectively, Gurley's arrow is pointing down. This time last year he was the #1 overall dynasty asset and he's had a steady slide. Now he's in the 2nd round. Is he done dropping? Wouldn't take much more news about his knee or Hendy flashing to drop more over the summer. Kidding yourself if you don't acknowledge that. Maybe it's overdone and it's a buying opp. Very well could be.

Fournette's arrow is pointing up, largely because he's dropped so much from last year and it's becoming obvious that he is expected to reprise his role as the bell cow. A simple repeat of his 1st year production (as inefficient as it was) will move him up a good bit. Will he catch or pass Gurley in season? I think he could if a few things play out in his favor. Then again if he has another year like last year, he'll resume his drop. Speculation or looking ahead? Player arrows for dynasty are relative to their own value and history. Most still have Fournette valued lots less than Gurley.

All players ebb & flow. Key is identifying the inflection points. Are we at one with these two now? Maybe, maybe not, but it feels like we could be approaching one. But to act like Gurley is some supreme being locked into RB1 value for the next 3 years after all we've learned about his knee / injury and RB help the Rams have acquired does not seem to fully consider the likely decline in his production and fantasty value.

BTW - hasn't Lenny already "developed" into this, i.e. his freshman NFL year?

[FantasyFreak]

Is this really where it's at now? Gurley by a mile. Despite Gurley's concerns, Fournette has equal concerns when it come to chronic injuries. Gurley is by far the more talented player. I am more worried about Fournette's issues than Gurley, when it comes to injuries, and off the field stuff, or discipline stuff. Gurley is also in the much better situation.

[Ironmagz]

Gurley will still be top 5 this year.

His knee condition is managable and to manage it is to give him closer to 20 touches per game instead of 25 or more touches per game. He will still be very efficient and do better than most.

Henderson was drafted to better spell Gurley without drop-off compared to what they already had on the roster.

I own both in my main league for whatever that is worth.

[Goddard]

I'm pretty shocked Fournette has 5 votes.

[hoos89]

Fair enough, but not sure I'd call it pure speculation. We're supposed to look forward and consider potentially likely outcomes in dynasty aren't we? If you're looking at the typical 3-year dynasty window, objectively, Gurley's arrow is pointing down. This time last year he was the #1 overall dynasty asset and he's had a steady slide. Now he's in the 2nd round. Is he done dropping? Wouldn't take much more news about his knee or Hendy flashing to drop more over the summer. Kidding yourself if you don't acknowledge that. Maybe it's overdone and it's a buying opp. Very well could be.

Fournette's arrow is pointing up, largely because he's dropped so much from last year and it's becoming obvious that he is expected to reprise his role as the bell cow. A simple repeat of his 1st year production (as inefficient as it was) will move him up a good bit. Will he catch or pass Gurley in season? I think he could if a few things play out in his favor. Then again if he has another year like last year, he'll resume his drop. Speculation or looking ahead? Player arrows for dynasty are relative to their own value and history. Most still have Fournette valued lots less than Gurley.

All players ebb & flow. Key is identifying the inflection points. Are we at one with these two now? Maybe, maybe not, but it feels like we could be approaching one. But to act like Gurley is some supreme being locked into RB1 value for the next 3 years after all we've learned about his knee / injury and RB help the Rams have acquired does not seem to fully consider the likely decline in his production and fantasty value.

BTW - hasn't Lenny already "developed" into this, i.e. his freshman NFL year?

Okay, but the whole purpose of trying to predict the future is to attempt to extract surplus value in the event your predictions are correct. Doing straight up swaps where you're selling the player who is currently valued materially higher is a great way to hemorrhage value in the long run.