Moore/Samuel comparison and value discrepancy

[Dr. Trades]

Fun Facts:

Moore: played in all 16 games last year: 55 rec / 82 targets, for 788 yds and 2 total TDs = 163 fantasy points = 10.8 ppg.
Samuel: played in 12 games last year: 39 rec / 65 targets, for 494 yards, and 7 total TDs = 137.8 fantasy points = 11.5 ppg.

In the last 5 games alone. Samuel outtargeted Moore by 6 targets, reaching double digit targets in 2 of those 5 compared to 0 for Moore. So, why is DJ Moore the 34th ranked player overall with hype seemingly approaching JuJu levels, to Samuel being 97th and a forgotten man? Also, they're separated by a total of 16 picks in draft capital and they are the same age.

Food for thought.

[Kkiddynamite]

Im actually glad somebody made a post on these teo. Im thinking of acquiring Samuel in a few places. With Funchess gone its possible Samuel could see close to 100 targets. At first I loved his talent, but not the situation as hes possibly/likely 3rd in the pecking order behind CMC and Moore. Assuming Olsen is healthy all season he will command some targets as well, but if both Moore and Samuel play a full 16 games I dont see their stat lines being all that different. Moore is going for early 1st rd pick and Samuel is going for a 2nd(where people are willing to sell him) Id pay a 2nd for him... have been pursuing him everywhere and I expect his ADP to climb as we get closer to preseason.

[Gator Sens]

I think this boils down to draft capitol and and athletic profile. Moore is the flasher piece due to draft capitol but I do think Samuel is pretty underrated. I'm looking to acquire Samuel for sure. I like Moore as well but his cost is much higher.

[Kkiddynamite]

Yeah Moore is going for an early 1st if ans when hes even being sold. Samuel is worth a 2nd but Im having a hard time finding willing sellers

[hoos89]

How about we compare Moore's rookie season to Samuel's?

[Kkiddynamite]

Moore was obv much more productive... I dont think they are all that different in skill set and I prefer the cheaper of the two. Dont think the difference in production will be enough to justify the big difference in price. Just me though

[Dr. Trades]

How about we compare Moore's rookie season to Samuel's?

Which was basically this past season, considering Samuel was injured for considerable amount in 2017, among several other circumstances. He was hurt entering into his rookie season so never able to get reps and acclimated with the offense as Moore benefitted from. And Samuel actually had 15 targets in the three main games he was healthy in 2017, and then got hurt again. So, I think 2017 is a rather null factor for Samuel and trying to compare their rookie seasons. Point of this thread was mostly to stimulate conversation about these two guys and their current value disparity, especially given their stats from last year. I have guys valuing Moore as the second coming of JuJu/Nuk and charging multiple first rounders for him already in a couple of my leagues, while Samuel is barely a late first, if that. Yet Samuel outperformed Moore on a game-by-game basis last year and led the team in targets over the stretch of the last 6 games of the season.

[hoos89]

How about we compare Moore's rookie season to Samuel's?

Which was basically this past season, considering Samuel was injured for considerable amount in 2017, among several other circumstances. He was hurt entering into his rookie season so never able to get reps and acclimated with the offense as Moore benefitted from. And Samuel actually had 15 targets in the three main games he was healthy in 2017, and then got hurt again. So, I think 2017 is a rather null factor for Samuel and trying to compare their rookie seasons. Point of this thread was mostly to stimulate conversation about these two guys and their current value disparity, especially given their stats from last year. I have guys valuing Moore as the second coming of JuJu/Nuk and charging multiple first rounders for him already in a couple of my leagues, while Samuel is barely a late first, if that. Yet Samuel outperformed Moore on a game-by-game basis last year and led the team in targets over the stretch of the last 6 games of the season.

Maybe Samuel was hampered in his rookie season, but he still had the benefit last season of being in the league a full year. Also...Samuel still played in 9 games as a rookie and totaled a mere 179 yards from scrimmage.

You're making a lot of excuses for Samuel, while disregarding that DJ Moore was only on the field for ~20% of snaps prior to Carolina's bye and didn't start until week 10...and he still nearly cracked 1,000 yards from scrimmage as a rookie. Moore was the #1 WR in the league in YAC per reception last year and in rushing yards (unless you count Patterson, which I don't because he was used as a running back after Michel went down).

[Kkiddynamite]

From week 10 on

Samuel 389 snaps 51 targets/31 receptions/388 yds/3 TDs

DJ Moore 483 snaps 56 targets/36 receptions/491 yds/1 TD

Moore was more efficient and posted better numbers. No denying that. But for the disparity in price and value, is it a significant enough difference in production to make the juice worth the squeeze. In short by the end of this season we will know for sure. I agree that Moore is or has been and likely to be more productive, but I prefer Samuel and his lower price tag and ADP as opposed to Moore. Idk that i could buy Moore for a 1st... Samuel Ive been buying for late 2nd, even got him for an early 3rd in one league. Better bargain imo...

[Titans95]

From week 10 on

Samuel 389 snaps 51 targets/31 receptions/388 yds/3 TDs

DJ Moore 483 snaps 56 targets/36 receptions/491 yds/1 TD

Moore was more efficient and posted better numbers. No denying that. But for the disparity in price and value, is it a significant enough difference in production to make the juice worth the squeeze. In short by the end of this season we will know for sure. I agree that Moore is or has been and likely to be more productive, but I prefer Samuel and his lower price tag and ADP as opposed to Moore. Idk that i could buy Moore for a 1st... Samuel Ive been buying for late 2nd, even got him for an early 3rd in one league. Better bargain imo...

If you can get him for that price then I'd definitely be looking to buy as well, The difference in price is what you said, more efficient and posted better numbers and is much more likely to be the #1 on that team moving forward. People are paying the price in hopes for a top 12 Wr in Moore who after his rookie season has shown the potential ceiling to be that whereas Samuel you're hoping for a productive WR3 something like the WR25-30 range. Of course all that could flip flop and Samuel be the alpha but as of right now Moore looks like the real deal.

I haven't seen a single trade involving any of these guys in any of my leagues this year because nobody wants to pay top $$ for Moore just yet and no one has a reason to sell after a great rookie season. Same with Samuel because they aren't going to sell for a late 2nd for the reasons listed above arguing in his favor.

[Kkiddynamite]

Yeah havent seen or found a single deal involving Moore either and cant blame anybody. Too expensive to buy and too promising to sell. Samuel I got lucky and bought him before the buzz began to circulate. Its becoming increasingly harder to buy him now

[hoos89]

From week 10 on

Samuel 389 snaps 51 targets/31 receptions/388 yds/3 TDs

DJ Moore 483 snaps 56 targets/36 receptions/491 yds/1 TD

Moore was more efficient and posted better numbers. No denying that. But for the disparity in price and value, is it a significant enough difference in production to make the juice worth the squeeze. In short by the end of this season we will know for sure. I agree that Moore is or has been and likely to be more productive, but I prefer Samuel and his lower price tag and ADP as opposed to Moore. Idk that i could buy Moore for a 1st... Samuel Ive been buying for late 2nd, even got him for an early 3rd in one league. Better bargain imo...

I think Samuel's value is typically viewed at about an early 2nd, and I'd expect a lot of Samuel owners to hold unless they got a late 1st. I'm a bit shocked that you were able to get him that cheap in multiple leagues. Moore's price tag is probably in the vicinity of an early 1st right now.

Moore's value is significantly higher largely because he was a rookie last season. I think you're not giving that fact enough credence when comparing the production of a rookie to that of a second year player.

[Titans95]

Yeah havent seen or found a single deal involving Moore either and cant blame anybody. Too expensive to buy and too promising to sell. Samuel I got lucky and bought him before the buzz began to circulate. Its becoming increasingly harder to buy him now

Yeah you definitely got a steal for that price, Samuel definitely has a case to be made that he's a quickly ascending talent. I'd look to buy around a early 2nd but If I owned him I wouldn't sell unless it was a late 1st

[FantasyFreak]

From week 10 on

Samuel 389 snaps 51 targets/31 receptions/388 yds/3 TDs

DJ Moore 483 snaps 56 targets/36 receptions/491 yds/1 TD

Moore was more efficient and posted better numbers. No denying that. But for the disparity in price and value, is it a significant enough difference in production to make the juice worth the squeeze. In short by the end of this season we will know for sure. I agree that Moore is or has been and likely to be more productive, but I prefer Samuel and his lower price tag and ADP as opposed to Moore. Idk that i could buy Moore for a 1st... Samuel Ive been buying for late 2nd, even got him for an early 3rd in one league. Better bargain imo...

I think Samuel's value is typically viewed at about an early 2nd, and I'd expect a lot of Samuel owners to hold unless they got a late 1st. I'm a bit shocked that you were able to get him that cheap in multiple leagues. Moore's price tag is probably in the vicinity of an early 1st right now.

Moore's value is significantly higher largely because he was a rookie last season. I think you're not giving that fact enough credence when comparing the production of a rookie to that of a second year player.

Yeah, I agree with this take. Not to mention he had a better profile coming out of college, too. If Moore makes a jump in his 2nd year, like Samuel did, it will just reconfirm this value difference.