Kittle

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Dr. Trades
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Kittle

Postby Dr. Trades » Mon May 20, 2019 9:13 am

Is this guy really worth his cost? To me, there is a lot of risk in investing in Kittle.

Positives: Guy was solid first season and excellent in year two when San Fran had essentially ZERO other options, let alone a QB who could even complete any passes to WRs as it was.
Probably was underdrafted for his level of talent, partly due to age

Negatives:
- poor draft capital
- inflated production and value due to being the only option on his team last year
- already 25yo and has only played 2 nfl seasons

San Fran now has a more capable QB returning who will likely spread it around more, as well as an influx of talented young wrs in Pettis, deebo, Hurd. I could see another year of very good production from kittle while those guys adapt to nfl life and develop, but could see a decent regression for kittle after that. I understand that the TE position is extremely volatile and the top tier is small. So my main questions are: Is Kittle really here to stay in the top elite tier of TEs, making him worth the investment? Am I being too pessimistic on him?
League 1: 12 Team League (0.5 ppr WR/RB, 0.75 ppr TE):
QB: Big Ben, Mayfield, Foles
RB: Saquon, Mixon, M. Mack, RoJo, Jalen Richard, Benny Snell, Rodney Anderson, Trayveon, Mike Weber
WR: Nuk, Julio, Boyd, Geronimo Allison, M. V-S, Flash Gordon, Tre'Quan Smith, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, Jalen Hurd, Willie Snead, Preston Williams
TE: C. Herndon, Vance McDonald, T. Eifert, Josh Oliver, Matt Lacosse

2020 picks: 4th x 1

League 2: 12 team (28 roster spots) Superflex/TE premium (qb 4pts per TD, all others 6pts per TD, WR/RB 0.1 ppc and 0.75ppr, TE 1.5 ppr)
QB: Brees, Stafford, Rivers
RB: Kamara, Mixon, James White, Malcolm Brown, John Kelly, Devine Ozigbo, Zach Zenner
WR: JuJu, Robert Woods, Jarvis Landry, Mike Williams, Will Fuller, Dante Pettis, JJAWS, Nelson Agholor, Dillon Mitchell, Chad Williams, Chester Rogers
TE: George Kittle, Evan Engram, Gerald Everett, Jordan Thomas, Blake Jarwin, Charles Clay

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lukkynumber13
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Re: Kittle

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon May 20, 2019 9:52 am

I don’t think you’re being too pessimistic, I think you’re being realistic.

I do think he has elite talent, that showed up big time on film. But it’s extremely possible he just had his best season.

My only counter to your post is that his age doesn’t bother me. Not many TEs post elite seasons before age 25/26.
TEAM A - 12 teams (2018 champ, 2017 R/U)
RIVERS, Mayfield, Jimmy G, Dalton
GURLEY/MIXON/GORDON, Jacobs, Shady, Gio, Gallman, Scarlett, Ajayi, B Hill, Ollison, Foreman, D Martin, Ware, Rodney A
NUK/EVANS/JUJU/DIGGS/GOLLADAY, Sammy, Edelman, Landry, Pettis, Crabtree, Dez, D Slayton, Terry G
KITTLE, Herndon, Knox, Eifert, Witten
-
Not listing my IDP, but they matter as much as offense in this league
///
///
TEAM B - 32 teams, double copy (1st year league, tanking this year to build through 2020 draft)
DARNOLD (Haskins, Rosen, Tyrod)
MIXON/ROJO, Mattison, D Harris
KA/EVANS/HOLLYWOOD/METCALF/LANDRY, Coutee, J Reynolds, Latimer
HERNDON
-
Danielle Hunter and then a bunch of maybes for IDP

cazzie33
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Re: Kittle

Postby cazzie33 » Mon May 20, 2019 10:37 am

Yes Kittle is top tier TE but to expect record setting stats every year is asking a bit much. But definitely in the Ertz / Kelce conversation for the near future. Would expect top 5 finishes barring injuries

Flgatorguy87
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Re: Kittle

Postby Flgatorguy87 » Mon May 20, 2019 11:15 am

I think a good majority of Kittle owners, myself included, got him for a very affordable price (20th round in startup his rookie year) and are happy to ride out a probable top 5 TE for the foreseeable future. There aren't many guys I would take over him.

I would certainly entertain moving him if I got an overpayment. TE value is so heavily dependent on league size and scoring format, so I really don't value them heavily in mine.
SF PPR 30 man roster 5 taxi 2 IR
QB, 3WR, 2RB, TE, 2FLEX , Superflex

A. Rodgers, J. Goff J. Rosen, J. Flacco

O. Beckham, Antonio Brown, M. Evans, S. Diggs, C. Sutton, T. Boyd, T. Quinn, A. Wilson, D. Cain, T. Taylor, R. Higgins, P. Williams, Da Willis

S. Barkley, Da. Cook, Da. Williams, R. Penny, Darwin Thompson, Duke Johnson, M. Breida, D. Hilliard, D. Crockett

G. Kittle, M. Andrews

Taxi: D. Lock, R. Armstead, E. Butler, D. Slayton, J. Meyers

2020 - 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th

greenbird
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Re: Kittle

Postby greenbird » Mon May 20, 2019 2:50 pm

I wasn't planning on moving Kittle but got offered H.Henry, Fant, and Metcalf.

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Re: Kittle

Postby Gator Sens » Mon May 20, 2019 3:47 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 9:52 am
I don’t think you’re being too pessimistic, I think you’re being realistic.

I do think he has elite talent, that showed up big time on film. But it’s extremely possible he just had his best season.

My only counter to your post is that his age doesn’t bother me. Not many TEs post elite seasons before age 25/26.
100% agree
You're in this for Life
12 Team, PPR, 30 roster: 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 FLEX, 1 DST, 1 K
QB: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen
RB: Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, Derrius Guice, Alexander Mattison, Ryquell Armstead
WR: Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, Mike Williams, Courtland Sutton, Christian Kirk, Dede Westbrook, Michael Gallup, Marquise Brown, John Ross, Josh Reynolds, Equanimeous St. Brown
TE: O.J. Howard, David Njoku, Greg Olsen, Ian Thomas

Picks: 2020: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th 2021: 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

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Blueboy
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Re: Kittle

Postby Blueboy » Mon May 20, 2019 5:25 pm

All the talent of Kelce/Ertz, but probably closer to my next tier of H Henry and OJ Howard. It's possible that last season was the most targets he'll ever see.

12 team SF, PPR, TE Premium, 0.25 PPcarry
1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 2Flex
QB: Mahomes, Cam, Trubisky
RB: Cook, Fournette, Michel, Miller, J. Jackson, D. Lewis, Foreman,
WR: Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Larry Fitzgerald, Marvin Jones, MVS, T Smith, Stills, Richardson
TE: Henry, Eifert, Sternberger, Hurst, Dissly

Dr. Trades
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Re: Kittle

Postby Dr. Trades » Mon May 20, 2019 5:48 pm

I partly brought this post up, because I am being offered Kittle + Diggs for JuJu + Pettis in my League 2 sig. It's a 1.5 pt TE premium in which Kittle outscored JuJu by about 30 points last year. Would seem like a good deal for me, but JuJu is 22yo! It benefits me to add depth behind Ebron, but even in a TE premium league such as that, can ANY TE be trusted enough to move a guy like JuJu?
League 1: 12 Team League (0.5 ppr WR/RB, 0.75 ppr TE):
QB: Big Ben, Mayfield, Foles
RB: Saquon, Mixon, M. Mack, RoJo, Jalen Richard, Benny Snell, Rodney Anderson, Trayveon, Mike Weber
WR: Nuk, Julio, Boyd, Geronimo Allison, M. V-S, Flash Gordon, Tre'Quan Smith, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, Jalen Hurd, Willie Snead, Preston Williams
TE: C. Herndon, Vance McDonald, T. Eifert, Josh Oliver, Matt Lacosse

2020 picks: 4th x 1

League 2: 12 team (28 roster spots) Superflex/TE premium (qb 4pts per TD, all others 6pts per TD, WR/RB 0.1 ppc and 0.75ppr, TE 1.5 ppr)
QB: Brees, Stafford, Rivers
RB: Kamara, Mixon, James White, Malcolm Brown, John Kelly, Devine Ozigbo, Zach Zenner
WR: JuJu, Robert Woods, Jarvis Landry, Mike Williams, Will Fuller, Dante Pettis, JJAWS, Nelson Agholor, Dillon Mitchell, Chad Williams, Chester Rogers
TE: George Kittle, Evan Engram, Gerald Everett, Jordan Thomas, Blake Jarwin, Charles Clay

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killer_of_giants
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Re: Kittle

Postby killer_of_giants » Tue May 21, 2019 7:04 am

Dr. Trades wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 9:13 am
San Fran now has a more capable QB returning who will likely spread it around more, as well as an influx of talented young wrs in Pettis, deebo, Hurd. I could see another year of very good production from kittle while those guys adapt to nfl life and develop, but could see a decent regression for kittle after that.
this is a non argument: he was good in a poor offense, there's a good chance he'll get better with a better offense.
smaller share, but more overall volume and higher quality of play. kelce was on a great offense with a lot of weapons. did great.
good players tend to get involved.

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theWilkman
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Re: Kittle

Postby theWilkman » Tue May 21, 2019 7:34 am

killer_of_giants wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:04 am
Dr. Trades wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 9:13 am
San Fran now has a more capable QB returning who will likely spread it around more, as well as an influx of talented young wrs in Pettis, deebo, Hurd. I could see another year of very good production from kittle while those guys adapt to nfl life and develop, but could see a decent regression for kittle after that.
this is a non argument: he was good in a poor offense, there's a good chance he'll get better with a better offense.
smaller share, but more overall volume and higher quality of play. kelce was on a great offense with a lot of weapons. did great.
good players tend to get involved.
100% agree. The argument that the #1 pass catcher in an offense gets WORSE by adding a better QB makes little sense to me.
12 Team Superflex IDP 6pt PassTD PPR: 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1 SF, 2 Flex(W/T/R), 1 DL/LB/DB

2017-18 Champion
QB: Trubisky, Stafford, Mullens
RB: K. Johnson, K. Drake, D. Henderson, J. Hill, T. Pollard, T. Johnson, M. Brown
WR: D. Hopkins, AJ Green, Tate, Kirk, Pettis, JJAW, D. Samuel, D. Hamilton, J. Brown, K. Johnson, J. Kumerow, R. Higgins
TE: Kittle, C. Herndon, M. Andrews
DL: F. Clark, D. Lawrence
LB: B. Wagner, C. Littleton
DB: J. Bates

Flgatorguy87
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Re: Kittle

Postby Flgatorguy87 » Tue May 21, 2019 8:12 am

I could honestly see his TD's going up. If his targets fall off a little bit he can still come close to replicating that season. I know it was a good year, but I don't think it was some absurd year he never gets close to touching again. It will likely still be a career high, but people are making it out to be an outlier.
SF PPR 30 man roster 5 taxi 2 IR
QB, 3WR, 2RB, TE, 2FLEX , Superflex

A. Rodgers, J. Goff J. Rosen, J. Flacco

O. Beckham, Antonio Brown, M. Evans, S. Diggs, C. Sutton, T. Boyd, T. Quinn, A. Wilson, D. Cain, T. Taylor, R. Higgins, P. Williams, Da Willis

S. Barkley, Da. Cook, Da. Williams, R. Penny, Darwin Thompson, Duke Johnson, M. Breida, D. Hilliard, D. Crockett

G. Kittle, M. Andrews

Taxi: D. Lock, R. Armstead, E. Butler, D. Slayton, J. Meyers

2020 - 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th

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Space Cowboy
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Re: Kittle

Postby Space Cowboy » Tue May 21, 2019 8:37 am

I'm not concerned. His floor is 70/800/8. His ceiling is 95/1250/12.

Dr. Trades
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Re: Kittle

Postby Dr. Trades » Tue May 21, 2019 10:20 am

Space Cowboy wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 8:37 am
I'm not concerned. His floor is 70/800/8. His ceiling is 95/1250/12.
He hasn’t caught more than 5 TDs in a season yet...
League 1: 12 Team League (0.5 ppr WR/RB, 0.75 ppr TE):
QB: Big Ben, Mayfield, Foles
RB: Saquon, Mixon, M. Mack, RoJo, Jalen Richard, Benny Snell, Rodney Anderson, Trayveon, Mike Weber
WR: Nuk, Julio, Boyd, Geronimo Allison, M. V-S, Flash Gordon, Tre'Quan Smith, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, Jalen Hurd, Willie Snead, Preston Williams
TE: C. Herndon, Vance McDonald, T. Eifert, Josh Oliver, Matt Lacosse

2020 picks: 4th x 1

League 2: 12 team (28 roster spots) Superflex/TE premium (qb 4pts per TD, all others 6pts per TD, WR/RB 0.1 ppc and 0.75ppr, TE 1.5 ppr)
QB: Brees, Stafford, Rivers
RB: Kamara, Mixon, James White, Malcolm Brown, John Kelly, Devine Ozigbo, Zach Zenner
WR: JuJu, Robert Woods, Jarvis Landry, Mike Williams, Will Fuller, Dante Pettis, JJAWS, Nelson Agholor, Dillon Mitchell, Chad Williams, Chester Rogers
TE: George Kittle, Evan Engram, Gerald Everett, Jordan Thomas, Blake Jarwin, Charles Clay


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