Juju for Hopkins

This is the place for team advice - should I make this trade, should I draft that player, etc.
hoos89
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Re: Juju for Hopkins

Postby hoos89 » Fri May 24, 2019 11:02 am

Kittenmittens wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 10:46 am

He's 30 right now, so 2 and 3 years ago he was 27 and 28.

If you walk too close to the edge of the value cliff you can get stuck with them, because everyone knows there is a value cliff. You can't expect your leaguemates to be shortsighted enough to pay full price for a 29 year old who they know is going to take an age-related value hit any second.
No. He will be 31 when next season starts. That is what matters.

Also, while it is true that trade value goes down around 29-30...actual dynasty value is production of fantasy points. If AB continues to produce at a high level well into his mid-30s then yes you may not be able to sell him for full value, but he would still be a productive fantasy asset with actual value to your team.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Haskins, Bortles
Michel, Howard, McKinnon, Love, Richard, Warren, Gaskin, Collins
Cooks, Kupp, Watkins, Kirk, MVS, Lee, Da. Moore, Dorsett, Coleman, Perriman, Patterson, Ateman
Njoku, Herndon, ASJ
IR(2):
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, Deebo
2020 Picks: 1st x 3, 2nd, 4th, 5th

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Stafford, Grier, Fitzpatrick
Gurley, Cohen, Miller, Ito, Barber, Brown, Pollard, Homer
Thomas, Woods, Watkins, Boyd, Anderson, M. Jones, Foster, Enunwa, Doctson, KeeSean, Perriman, Ferguson
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Gronk
2020 Picks: 1st x 4

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

Kittenmittens
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Re: Juju for Hopkins

Postby Kittenmittens » Fri May 24, 2019 11:49 am

hoos89 wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 11:02 am
Kittenmittens wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 10:46 am

He's 30 right now, so 2 and 3 years ago he was 27 and 28.

If you walk too close to the edge of the value cliff you can get stuck with them, because everyone knows there is a value cliff. You can't expect your leaguemates to be shortsighted enough to pay full price for a 29 year old who they know is going to take an age-related value hit any second.
No. He will be 31 when next season starts. That is what matters.

Also, while it is true that trade value goes down around 29-30...actual dynasty value is production of fantasy points. If AB continues to produce at a high level well into his mid-30s then yes you may not be able to sell him for full value, but he would still be a productive fantasy asset with actual value to your team.
Dynasty trades are year round - but I get what you're saying. I don't like to count that way with arbitrary cutoffs - that would mean a player who is born on September 1st is considered a year younger than a player who is born on September 15th because of how old they are when the season begins.

I agree that actual dynasty value is production of fantasy points. I'm looking at it more in a points per the players expected lifespan of fantasy relevance. Juju is most likely going to score more points before he retires than Hopkins. The most likely scenario is that Juju will score 1.5x to 2x as many fantasy points as Hopkins from this point forward due to player age alone.

Staying away from the age cliff allows to you keep cycling in the next stud and never hit the age cliff. It's risky of course, but in my opinion less risk than expecting a player not to age (trade market value perception) or to continue to produce into their mid 30s (actual fantasy value).

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Re: Juju for Hopkins

Postby hoos89 » Fri May 24, 2019 1:49 pm

You don't really need to get into arbitrary cut-offs when it comes to a player born in July. AB will not play another game in the NFL as a 30 year old, so it makes no sense to value him as such when trading for him. Why do I care if he's 30 during OTAs?
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Haskins, Bortles
Michel, Howard, McKinnon, Love, Richard, Warren, Gaskin, Collins
Cooks, Kupp, Watkins, Kirk, MVS, Lee, Da. Moore, Dorsett, Coleman, Perriman, Patterson, Ateman
Njoku, Herndon, ASJ
IR(2):
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, Deebo
2020 Picks: 1st x 3, 2nd, 4th, 5th

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Stafford, Grier, Fitzpatrick
Gurley, Cohen, Miller, Ito, Barber, Brown, Pollard, Homer
Thomas, Woods, Watkins, Boyd, Anderson, M. Jones, Foster, Enunwa, Doctson, KeeSean, Perriman, Ferguson
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Gronk
2020 Picks: 1st x 4

Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up

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Re: Juju for Hopkins

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri May 24, 2019 4:29 pm

I actually would have a hard time giving up much of anything. If the two of them put up similar numbers to last year, Juju could be worth more than Hopkins by that point, or at the very least, equal. If Juju puts up those numbers without AB, and has back to back 2 years of elite production and is only 22 years old, he could easily, and probably should be the WR1 in all of dynasty. He'd be 4-5 younger than all of the other guys in his production range.

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Re: Juju for Hopkins

Postby Kittenmittens » Fri May 24, 2019 5:24 pm

hoos89 wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 1:49 pm
You don't really need to get into arbitrary cut-offs when it comes to a player born in July. AB will not play another game in the NFL as a 30 year old, so it makes no sense to value him as such when trading for him. Why do I care if he's 30 during OTAs?
Not to devolve into pure pedantary, but then how old is Juju? It's a lot easier to just use the players actual age...

Hopkins is 26 and will turn 27 in less than a month. Around this time next year he will be 28, which is when people in my leagues at least start not wanting to buy.

This is mostly about market perception. I wouldn't be that surprised if there was a difference in how the community values a 26.9 year old vs a 27.0 year old due to some people not checking the month. Even more for 27.9 vs 28.0. The younger they are, the less people are going to care about the fractional year. A test twitter poll would be interesting...

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Re: Juju for Hopkins

Postby blemly » Fri May 24, 2019 7:49 pm

Kittenmittens wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 2:51 pm
I also prefer Juju by a wide margin.

Their expected production is pretty close, maybe Hopkins is 15 percent better.

I see Juju as having another 9 years of elite fantasy production. I see Hopkins with 3 or 4 more years, and about to lose value steadily as he ages. 15 percent more expected points doesn't make up for the longevity and value retention of Juju in my eyes.

Hopkins is about to go over the age cliff. Now is the time to sell. 2 years ago, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown and AJ Green were 27 years old at the top of the rankings. Now they are 3rd or 4th round picks because they got a few years older.

In 2 years, Juju owners will laugh at a Hopkins offer.
I respect the time you put into this post, but I could not possibly disagree more. If you take away age, there isn’t a single statistic where JuJu outperforms Hopkins.

Hopkins is transcendent. He can succeed with any QB. He has some of the best separation in the league and his hands are magnets. These are skill sets that do not fade with age. Hopkins is a truly special WR. Not to take anything away from JuJu, but he has benefited from an offense that throws way more than the league average and having coverage directed to AB each play, which allowed him to be the big slot. We haven’t seen him as a true WR1 on his team yet. I think he’ll be very good, but I don’t believe we’ll ever see Hopkins numbers out of JuJu.
Team 1: 10-team 15-keeper PPR:
QB: Cousins, Winston
RB: Zeke, DJ, Kerryon, RoJo, Ajayi
WR: Hopkins, Allen, Hilton, M. Williams, Pettis, Washington, Z. Jones, Hamilton
TE: Kittle, Reed
D: CHI

Team 2: 12-team Superflex 22-man 0.5PPR, 1.0PP1D:
QB: Luck, Darnold, Jones, Brissett
RB: Gurley, Michel, Drake, McKinnon, Breida, Ballage, B. Anderson
WR: OBJ, Cooks, Golladay, Pettis, J. Brown, Ross, Allison, Hardman, Isabella, Boykin
TE: Howard, Reed, Waller
D: CHI

Team 3: 12-team Superflex 28-man 3WR PPR:
QB: Cousins, Rosen, Keenum, Grier
RB: Barkley, Sanders, Williams, Drake, Armstead, B. Anderson, Smallwood
WR: Julio, Cooks, Kirk, Goodwin, Z. Jones, Wright, Dulin, Hall
TE: Howard, McDonald, Gesicki

Team 4: 12-team Superflex 28-man 3WR PPR:
QB: Watson, Garopollo, Haskins, McCown
RB: Mixon, Jacobs, Hines, Hill, Ajayi, Booker, J. Williams, R. Anderson
WR: Cooks, Edelman, AJ Brown, M. Brown, Boykin, R. Anderson, Richardson, McLaurin, Cobb, D. Thomas
TE: Howard, Rudolph

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Re: Juju for Hopkins

Postby DoggieOG » Sat May 25, 2019 8:25 am

blemly wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 7:49 pm
Kittenmittens wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 2:51 pm
I also prefer Juju by a wide margin.

Their expected production is pretty close, maybe Hopkins is 15 percent better.

I see Juju as having another 9 years of elite fantasy production. I see Hopkins with 3 or 4 more years, and about to lose value steadily as he ages. 15 percent more expected points doesn't make up for the longevity and value retention of Juju in my eyes.

Hopkins is about to go over the age cliff. Now is the time to sell. 2 years ago, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown and AJ Green were 27 years old at the top of the rankings. Now they are 3rd or 4th round picks because they got a few years older.

In 2 years, Juju owners will laugh at a Hopkins offer.
I respect the time you put into this post, but I could not possibly disagree more. If you take away age, there isn’t a single statistic where JuJu outperforms Hopkins.

Hopkins is transcendent. He can succeed with any QB. He has some of the best separation in the league and his hands are magnets. These are skill sets that do not fade with age. Hopkins is a truly special WR. Not to take anything away from JuJu, but he has benefited from an offense that throws way more than the league average and having coverage directed to AB each play, which allowed him to be the big slot. We haven’t seen him as a true WR1 on his team yet.
I think he’ll be very good, but I don’t believe we’ll ever see Hopkins numbers out of JuJu.

This about sums up my feelings too. Juju is exciting.. call him the new kid on the block (top 5 WR) sorta speak. However, we have not seen him do it himself yet, without AB or Bell there. Once I see it then I'd be open to the idea, but for now as an owner of both players I don't believe I'd trade Hopkins for Juju unless I were in desperate need of another piece (ie: RB) that was also being offered. A draft pick, unless it were a guaranteed top 3 wouldn't be acceptable. Hopkins by a mile, at least for now.

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Re: Juju for Hopkins

Postby Kittenmittens » Sat May 25, 2019 9:23 am

blemly wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 7:49 pm
Kittenmittens wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 2:51 pm
I also prefer Juju by a wide margin.

Their expected production is pretty close, maybe Hopkins is 15 percent better.

I see Juju as having another 9 years of elite fantasy production. I see Hopkins with 3 or 4 more years, and about to lose value steadily as he ages. 15 percent more expected points doesn't make up for the longevity and value retention of Juju in my eyes.

Hopkins is about to go over the age cliff. Now is the time to sell. 2 years ago, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown and AJ Green were 27 years old at the top of the rankings. Now they are 3rd or 4th round picks because they got a few years older.

In 2 years, Juju owners will laugh at a Hopkins offer.
I respect the time you put into this post, but I could not possibly disagree more. If you take away age, there isn’t a single statistic where JuJu outperforms Hopkins.

Hopkins is transcendent. He can succeed with any QB. He has some of the best separation in the league and his hands are magnets. These are skill sets that do not fade with age. Hopkins is a truly special WR. Not to take anything away from JuJu, but he has benefited from an offense that throws way more than the league average and having coverage directed to AB each play, which allowed him to be the big slot. We haven’t seen him as a true WR1 on his team yet. I think he’ll be very good, but I don’t believe we’ll ever see Hopkins numbers out of JuJu.
I respect your disagreement. If we all agreed dynasty would be a lot less fun. And if we all agreed, my strategy wouldn't even work.

If you take away age I mostly agree. My argument is mainly centered around age. Both what Juju has done statistically in terms of his age and the fact that Hopkins is approaching the point of losing trade value due to age are pretty much the bookends of my argument.

Hopkins is where AB was 3 years ago. You probably have a year or maybe a bit more to flip Hopkins for that next upcoming stud (Juju) before you can't anymore, but Juju saw 160 targets last year and there are another 160 targets available in Pittsburgh. It is not unlikely that Juju has a huge year and is nearly unattainable as a 23 year old with 3 elite seasons under his belt...

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Re: Juju for Hopkins

Postby lukkynumber13 » Sat May 25, 2019 9:51 am

Kittenmittens wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 2:51 pm
I also prefer Juju by a wide margin.

Their expected production is pretty close, maybe Hopkins is 15 percent better.

I see Juju as having another 9 years of elite fantasy production. I see Hopkins with 3 or 4 more years, and about to lose value steadily as he ages. 15 percent more expected points doesn't make up for the longevity and value retention of Juju in my eyes.

Hopkins is about to go over the age cliff. Now is the time to sell. 2 years ago, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown and AJ Green were 27 years old at the top of the rankings. Now they are 3rd or 4th round picks because they got a few years older.

In 2 years, Juju owners will laugh at a Hopkins offer.
Here’s the part that really bothers me, and is - IMO, borderline reckless dynasty advice.

You just assume that JuJu will have 9 MORE years of elite production? We can’t honestly project out more than 1-2 years with WRs with much regularity, and you’re talking about what will happen in almost a decade?

For the record, Juju’s elite year last year (when he had 160 targets) would be Hopkins’ 4th best season.

I’m not at all trying to hate on JJSS, he does look to be a stud in this league for a long time - but he’s not on Nuk’s level as an elite talent OR hyper-elite fantasy producer yet. That could change this year, but it hasn’t happened yet.
RIVERS, Jimmy G, J Allen, Dalton
GURLEY/MIXON/GORDON, Jacobs, Shady, Gio, Foreman, D Martin, Rodney A, Gallman, Ollison, B Anderson, Barnes, Ware, Scarlett
NUK/EVANS/K ALLEN/DIGGS/GOLLADAY, Sammy, Pettis, Edelman, McLaurin, Crabtree, Dez, D Slayton, Sherfield, Terry G
KITTLE, Herndon, Knox, Eifert, Witten
-
DL: J BOSA/BUCKNER/C JORDAN/DUNLAP/GRIFFEN, N Bosa, Quinnen, Houston, B Graham
LB: MCKINNEY/VAN NOY/TAVAI, Okereke, KJW, Barron, Jewell, Takitaki, Kiser
DB: JOHNSON III/TJ-MAC/ABRAM, Tartt, M Blair, Geathers, Burnett, W Harris, Q Diggs

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Re: Juju for Hopkins

Postby Kittenmittens » Sat May 25, 2019 8:47 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote:
Sat May 25, 2019 9:51 am
Kittenmittens wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 2:51 pm
I also prefer Juju by a wide margin.

Their expected production is pretty close, maybe Hopkins is 15 percent better.

I see Juju as having another 9 years of elite fantasy production. I see Hopkins with 3 or 4 more years, and about to lose value steadily as he ages. 15 percent more expected points doesn't make up for the longevity and value retention of Juju in my eyes.

Hopkins is about to go over the age cliff. Now is the time to sell. 2 years ago, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown and AJ Green were 27 years old at the top of the rankings. Now they are 3rd or 4th round picks because they got a few years older.

In 2 years, Juju owners will laugh at a Hopkins offer.
Here’s the part that really bothers me, and is - IMO, borderline reckless dynasty advice.

You just assume that JuJu will have 9 MORE years of elite production? We can’t honestly project out more than 1-2 years with WRs with much regularity, and you’re talking about what will happen in almost a decade?

For the record, Juju’s elite year last year (when he had 160 targets) would be Hopkins’ 4th best season.

I’m not at all trying to hate on JJSS, he does look to be a stud in this league for a long time - but he’s not on Nuk’s level as an elite talent OR hyper-elite fantasy producer yet. That could change this year, but it hasn’t happened yet.
Fair enough, I'll defend that. I don't think I'll convince you, but maybe I can explain that it's not just a blind assumption.

I can agree that usually trying to project that far out is a fool's errand. I contend that in the case of historically productive players, we can project that they will remain very good throughout their careers barring injury or something off the field. The former can happen to any player, the latter is not likely to come up with Juju.

Three years ago, we were saying the same things about Hopkins that can be said about Juju now. Hopkins then had the 3rd highest yards before the age of 23. Probably the most predictive sign that Hopkins was going to be a stud was the production he was able to put up at such a young age. Juju is on track to crush Hopkins yards before 23 mark and even pass all time leader Randy Moss, he doesn't turn 23 until after mid-season 2019.

Yards before age 23:
Randy Moss - 2726
Josh Gordon - 2451
Juju - 2343
Mike Evans - 2257
Cooper - 2223
Hopkins - 2212

Receptions before age 23:
Juju - 169
Larry Fitzgerald - 161
Amari Cooper - 155
Cooks - 150
Randy Moss - 149
Keenan Allen - 148

If you want to compare just first two seasons for around 21 and 22 years old, the numbers above except for Cooks should be just first 2 years due to offseason birthday.

I also find it odd that we are viewing Brown leaving as a negative. Smith-Schuster will have to deal with more attention, but volume should go way up. In no other situation in fantasy does anyone view a player rising on the offensive pecking order for volume as a bad thing. He will probably be less efficient, but volume should more than compensate for that.

I'd also add that while Hopkins is putting up higher fantasy point totals, it's not by a ton. If Juju and Hopkins put up similar numbers as last year for the rest of their careers, Juju would have to play at most 2 years longer than Hopkins to make up all those points and then some. He will also maintain trade value longer and can perhaps be flipped for the next Juju on the rise in 5 years. I see these things all weighing out evenly on the scales. Juju over Hopkins is more risky in the short term, but has more upside and a better chance of the Juju side being the hindsight winner IMO.


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