Chris Herndon vs Evan Engram

[C_n_red_again]

Well said blueboy

[Ice]

Miami hasn't had an NFL-level pass catching TE in two seasons, I'm not sure anything can be gleamed about Gase's ideal usage of the position from that.

It's like saying that Gase doesn't like using rushing QBs. He hasn't had one on a roster, maybe he would if he did. Who knows.

We can all hope he suddenly changes his style but 3 years in a row he simply didn't target TE's very often.

2016 Dion Simms 35 targets.
2017 Thomas 63 targets.

10 teams had a Te with 80 plus targets. 5 of those were over 100 targets.

Herndon ranked 17th

OK. Let's use OJ Howard as an example, as he's a guy whose upside we can all agree on. Arians is notorious for never utilizing a TE, right? But he's also never had a good TE. We cannot, therefore, accurately make the assumption that Arians does not like using TEs right? It's why Howard's stock isn't falling. Gase is largely the same, except that his resume does include a season of making a TE a fantasty monster.

I'm not claiming that Herndon will have heavy usage, just that you're mistaking correlation for causation.

While OJ Howard has more upside IMO. In his 2 seasons which have spanned 24 games he has averaged 2.5 receptions per game.

60 receptions 997 yards. I do like that he has had 11 TD's which gives him a .45 percent of scoring a TD. He is a 12 point play.

Don't think I am mistaking a coaches known system. While many coaches will add nuances to their preferred scheme, leopards don't change their spots very often. Howard was a first round draft pick and the best in his class. Herndon was the 7th TE drafted in his class and was a 4th round selection.

Howard should have a better season but I would temper expectations given his situation.

For the record, I am not dissing Herndon. He has upside but comparing him to Howard or any upper tier TE at this point is highly speculative. Herndon was a 7 point play last season. Herndon only averaged 39.1 plays per game last year. Blocking is not his strong suit at this point. To put that in perspective the top 2 averaged 62 plays per game. Herndon ranked 17th in TE snaps.

[sloth8u]

All this talk of gase using the te.....does this stem from gronk/brady and peyton/julius? If so, id throw that out the window.

[ArrylT]

It is always fun to debate the chicken vs. the egg & what comes first.

Is the TE not being fed because he is not worthy of targets (aka not good)
or
Would we consider him good if he got fed the targets?

Sometimes it is a bit of both ... IE a player who develops and earns their coaches trust becomes a bigger cog in the machine. But at the same time regardless of their skill, their role may not expand due to other factors. Take Heath Miller for example. 11 year career but only 4 seasons with 90+ targets. And it was not like he was not a trusted asset. In 2014 he saw 97% of the Steelers snaps. Yet because Bell & Brown gobbled up approx 290 targets combined (almost 50% of all passing targets), there was not much left for anyone else.

With Herndon it is too soon to tell. But I do agree that the addition of Bell, assuming he gets 100+ targets, will limit Herndons target share. Whether or not that limitation will affect him from being fantasy viable will depend on other factors - like how many targets will be fed to the WRs.

[Cameron Giles]

Herndon at best looks like the 4th-5th option in this offense.

Bell
Enunwa
Anderson
Crowder
Herndon

I don't see where the high usage is coming from.

[joeya2001]

Herndon at best looks like the 4th-5th option in this offense.

Bell
Enunwa
Anderson
Crowder
Herndon

I don't see where the high usage is coming from.

Id personally put Herndon somewhere in between Enunwa and Anderson, I don't see Crowder coming in and taking his work at the 3rd WR, and Anderson didn't hear up until the end of the year.

Enunwa lost 2017 and only played 11 games last year, could have a injured tag next to his name.

[Jfever]

Herndon at best looks like the 4th-5th option in this offense.

Bell
Enunwa
Anderson
Crowder
Herndon

I don't see where the high usage is coming from.

Well, this is quite the subjective list now isn't it. Why are the wr in the order they are in? I simply don't see how you came up with the order you came up with. There are no sure fire real life or fantasy assets on that list besides Bell. Why Enunwa on top? The thing is, this is one of the, if not the worst wr corp in the whole league. Let's not pretend we know how the target distribution will shake out there. I don't know and neither do you. My gut tells me at some point this season, Bell is going to get dinged up and miss time. Why? Well, historically, taking a year off doesn't normally work out too well. Besides that, and even if that doesn't happen, The wr corp doesn't scream target vacuum to me. Herndon could quite easily be the #2 or #3 targeted receiving option and it wouldn't be shocking at all.

[Cameron Giles]

Herndon at best looks like the 4th-5th option in this offense.

Bell
Enunwa
Anderson
Crowder
Herndon

I don't see where the high usage is coming from.

Well, this is quite the subjective list now isn't it. Why are the wr in the order they are in? I simply don't see how you came up with the order you came up with. There are no sure fire real life or fantasy assets on that list besides Bell. Why Enunwa on top? The thing is, this is one of the, if not the worst wr corp in the whole league. Let's not pretend we know how the target distribution will shake out there. I don't know and neither do you. My gut tells me at some point this season, Bell is going to get dinged up and miss time. Why? Well, historically, taking a year off doesn't normally work out too well. Besides that, and even if that doesn't happen, The wr corp doesn't scream target vacuum to me. Herndon could quite easily be the #2 or #3 targeted receiving option and it wouldn't be shocking at all.

And of course Herndon won't get injured and there's no downside in outlook for him.

This isn't even close to the worst. Enunwa and Crowder are solid to good route runners. Anderson is one of the better vertical threats in the league. Bell is arguably the best receiving RB in the league. It doesn't have a top end star like Julio or Hopkins, but it's a solid group.

The Jets gave Enunwa $20M guaranteed and Crowder $17M guaranteed, so why would they not be planning to get the ball to them? Not to mention, Enunwa was Darnold's safety blanket early in the season. Herndon has a bright future, but given how slow TE's develop and the amount of money the Jets gave to Bell, Enunwa and Crowder, I would guess that featuring Herndon is not currently at the top of their priorities on offense. I see a TD dependent TE right now with 4-5 targets per game.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

Herndon at best looks like the 4th-5th option in this offense.

Bell
Enunwa
Anderson
Crowder
Herndon

I don't see where the high usage is coming from.

Well, this is quite the subjective list now isn't it. Why are the wr in the order they are in? I simply don't see how you came up with the order you came up with. There are no sure fire real life or fantasy assets on that list besides Bell. Why Enunwa on top? The thing is, this is one of the, if not the worst wr corp in the whole league. Let's not pretend we know how the target distribution will shake out there. I don't know and neither do you. My gut tells me at some point this season, Bell is going to get dinged up and miss time. Why? Well, historically, taking a year off doesn't normally work out too well. Besides that, and even if that doesn't happen, The wr corp doesn't scream target vacuum to me. Herndon could quite easily be the #2 or #3 targeted receiving option and it wouldn't be shocking at all.

And of course Herndon won't get injured and there's no downside in outlook for him.

This isn't even close to the worst. Enunwa and Crowder are solid to good route runners. Anderson is one of the better vertical threats in the league. Bell is arguably the best receiving RB in the league. It doesn't have a top end star like Julio or Hopkins, but it's a solid group.

The Jets gave Enunwa $20M guaranteed and Crowder $17M guaranteed, and you think they're going to game plan Herndon ahead of them? Not to mention, Enunwa was Darnold's safety blanket early in the season. Herndon has a bright future, but given how slow TE's develop and the amount of money the Jets gave to Bell, Enunwa and Crowder, I would guess that featuring Herndon is not currently at the top of their priorities. I see a TD dependent TE right now.

What you're saying is fair, but both Enunwa and Crowder have low $7-$8M contracts with easy outs after a season or two. Both have also missed significant time over the last few seasons, which is likely why Crowder was signed despite sharing an overlapping role with Enunwa. I don't think Herndon will be more than a low-end TE1 this year, if that, but I wouldn't be too concerned about Enunwa and Crowder.

[Jfever]

You may be right, but, you do understand that the truth is likely somewhere in the middle here. Herndon may miss some time due to that DWI thing. So, yes, there is that. Not one of Enunwa, Crowder, et all is going to strike fear in an opposing defensive coordinator. The fact that they are severely overpaid is the Jets problem. It does say something, you are right. Bell is a huge addition to their short passing game and he likely should lead the team in targets. Not sure that is a good thing though. As a football fan and a long time dynasty player, I'm of the opinion that the Jets wr corp is one of the least intimidating in the league. At best imo, they are in the bottom 25%-33% of the league.
You call them solid and you are welcome to your opinion but, man, we have different opinions on what is solid. Herndon was a mild bright spot and produced at an efficient level earlier in his career than most at that position. You also may be right that he receives 4-5 targets a game, I'm not overly confident in predicting that right now. I'd lean more toward 6-7 times per game but... who knows at this point. I am confident in my opinion that this wr group is not as good as you think they are. So, there is that.

[Cameron Giles]

Well, this is quite the subjective list now isn't it. Why are the wr in the order they are in? I simply don't see how you came up with the order you came up with. There are no sure fire real life or fantasy assets on that list besides Bell. Why Enunwa on top? The thing is, this is one of the, if not the worst wr corp in the whole league. Let's not pretend we know how the target distribution will shake out there. I don't know and neither do you. My gut tells me at some point this season, Bell is going to get dinged up and miss time. Why? Well, historically, taking a year off doesn't normally work out too well. Besides that, and even if that doesn't happen, The wr corp doesn't scream target vacuum to me. Herndon could quite easily be the #2 or #3 targeted receiving option and it wouldn't be shocking at all.

And of course Herndon won't get injured and there's no downside in outlook for him.

This isn't even close to the worst. Enunwa and Crowder are solid to good route runners. Anderson is one of the better vertical threats in the league. Bell is arguably the best receiving RB in the league. It doesn't have a top end star like Julio or Hopkins, but it's a solid group.

The Jets gave Enunwa $20M guaranteed and Crowder $17M guaranteed, and you think they're going to game plan Herndon ahead of them? Not to mention, Enunwa was Darnold's safety blanket early in the season. Herndon has a bright future, but given how slow TE's develop and the amount of money the Jets gave to Bell, Enunwa and Crowder, I would guess that featuring Herndon is not currently at the top of their priorities. I see a TD dependent TE right now.

What you're saying is fair, but both Enunwa and Crowder have low $7-$8M contracts with easy outs after a season or two. Both have also missed significant time over the last few seasons, which is likely why Crowder was signed despite sharing an overlapping role with Enunwa. I don't think Herndon will be more than a low-end TE1 this year, if that, but I wouldn't be too concerned about Enunwa and Crowder.

Injuries can definitely alter things, but Enunwa is a good player and showed very solid rapport with Darnold.

I don't expect this to be a high volume passing offense. So, targets aren't going to be abundant enough for everyone to eat in the receiving game.

Gase's teams outside of Peyton in pass attempts have ranked: 25, 31, 4 and 30 in attempts. Dowell Loggains (his OC) has run offenses that have been 23, 22, 32, and 30 in pass attempts.

[Cameron Giles]

You may be right, but, you do understand that the truth is likely somewhere in the middle here. Herndon may miss some time due to that DWI thing. So, yes, there is that. Not one of Enunwa, Crowder, et all is going to strike fear in an opposing defensive coordinator. The fact that they are severely overpaid is the Jets problem. It does say something, you are right. Bell is a huge addition to their short passing game and he likely should lead the team in targets. Not sure that is a good thing though. As a football fan and a long time dynasty player, I'm of the opinion that the Jets wr corp is one of the least intimidating in the league. At best imo, they are in the bottom 25%-33% of the league.
You call them solid and you are welcome to your opinion but, man, we have different opinions on what is solid. Herndon was a mild bright spot and produced at an efficient level earlier in his career than most at that position. You also may be right that he receives 4-5 targets a game, I'm not overly confident in predicting that right now. I'd lean more toward 6-7 times per game but... who knows at this point. I am confident in my opinion that this wr group is not as good as you think they are. So, there is that.

6-7 targets puts him at a pace of 96-112 targets in an offense that is traditionally low volume in passing attempts. That just seems very unlikely for a 2nd year TE.

[Ice]

Well, this is quite the subjective list now isn't it. Why are the wr in the order they are in? I simply don't see how you came up with the order you came up with. There are no sure fire real life or fantasy assets on that list besides Bell. Why Enunwa on top? The thing is, this is one of the, if not the worst wr corp in the whole league. Let's not pretend we know how the target distribution will shake out there. I don't know and neither do you. My gut tells me at some point this season, Bell is going to get dinged up and miss time. Why? Well, historically, taking a year off doesn't normally work out too well. Besides that, and even if that doesn't happen, The wr corp doesn't scream target vacuum to me. Herndon could quite easily be the #2 or #3 targeted receiving option and it wouldn't be shocking at all.

And of course Herndon won't get injured and there's no downside in outlook for him.

This isn't even close to the worst. Enunwa and Crowder are solid to good route runners. Anderson is one of the better vertical threats in the league. Bell is arguably the best receiving RB in the league. It doesn't have a top end star like Julio or Hopkins, but it's a solid group.

The Jets gave Enunwa $20M guaranteed and Crowder $17M guaranteed, and you think they're going to game plan Herndon ahead of them? Not to mention, Enunwa was Darnold's safety blanket early in the season. Herndon has a bright future, but given how slow TE's develop and the amount of money the Jets gave to Bell, Enunwa and Crowder, I would guess that featuring Herndon is not currently at the top of their priorities. I see a TD dependent TE right now.

What you're saying is fair, but both Enunwa and Crowder have low $7-$8M contracts with easy outs after a season or two. Both have also missed significant time over the last few seasons, which is likely why Crowder was signed despite sharing an overlapping role with Enunwa. I don't think Herndon will be more than a low-end TE1 this year, if that, but I wouldn't be too concerned about Enunwa and Crowder.

Pretty sure the Jets gave Enunwa a 36 million contract with something like 20 million guaranteed, 9 million was a signing bonus just a few months ago. I own him in a few places and was a little surprised they gave him so much. Love his upside as a route runner out of the slot but can play outside as well. They have big plans for him it sounds like and he is a strong buy in fantasy IMO. I do know Crowder received 17 million in guarantees and 3 million at signing. Don't see their roles as overlapping. They will be running 3 WR sets almost every play.

I highly doubt Herndon rises above 4th in targets and expect him to be 5th personally.

Edit to add.

Only 6 TE's in the NFL averaged 6 or more targets last year. Only 3 of those averaged 7 or more.
Ertz 9.8, Kelce 9.4, Kittle 8.4

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

And of course Herndon won't get injured and there's no downside in outlook for him.

This isn't even close to the worst. Enunwa and Crowder are solid to good route runners. Anderson is one of the better vertical threats in the league. Bell is arguably the best receiving RB in the league. It doesn't have a top end star like Julio or Hopkins, but it's a solid group.

The Jets gave Enunwa $20M guaranteed and Crowder $17M guaranteed, and you think they're going to game plan Herndon ahead of them? Not to mention, Enunwa was Darnold's safety blanket early in the season. Herndon has a bright future, but given how slow TE's develop and the amount of money the Jets gave to Bell, Enunwa and Crowder, I would guess that featuring Herndon is not currently at the top of their priorities. I see a TD dependent TE right now.

What you're saying is fair, but both Enunwa and Crowder have low $7-$8M contracts with easy outs after a season or two. Both have also missed significant time over the last few seasons, which is likely why Crowder was signed despite sharing an overlapping role with Enunwa. I don't think Herndon will be more than a low-end TE1 this year, if that, but I wouldn't be too concerned about Enunwa and Crowder.

Pretty sure the Jets gave Enunwa a 36 million contract with something like 20 million guaranteed, 9 million was a signing bonus just a few months ago. I own him in a few places and was a little surprised they gave him so much. Love his upside as a route runner out of the slot but can play outside as well. They have big plans for him it sounds like and he is a strong buy in fantasy IMO. I do know Crowder received 17 million in guarantees and 3 million at signing. Don't see their roles as overlapping. They will be running 3 WR sets almost every play.

I highly doubt Herndon rises above 4th in targets and expect him to be 5th personally.

Sorry, I mean $7-$8M annually, which isn't that much. I also assume they'll use Crowder in the slot with Enunwa and Anderson outside, but Enunwa profiles to me as a better slot than outside guy. I think we can all agree that the best fantasy assets on NYJ are now Bell, Darnold, and Anderson, with the rest of the picture kind of muddled.

[Ice]

I actually think Enunwa will prove to be better than Anderson but like them both just not as fantasy WR1's.