Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

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Avery
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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Avery » Mon May 03, 2021 10:23 am

halfbaked88 wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 2:59 am
I thought I did. But this is obviously a baited conversation. You open with "um scuse, me I genuinely have a question" then proceed to be argumentative af.

I try to avoid people like you.
Alrighty then. I thought a spirited discussion was possible but clearly not your thing but no need to get personal.

All good and good luck!
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 1 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – D. Jones, J. Hurts
RB – J.K. Dobbins, G. Edwards, R. Mostert
WR – C. Lamb, H. Ruggs, L. Shenault, C. Samuel, D. Duvernay
TE – I. Smith, L. Thomas
Rookie picks: 1.01, 1.03, 2.01, 3.03, 4.03, 5.03, 2 x 2022 1st, 2 x 2022 2nd


Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - S. Barkley, A. Kamra, Da. Johnson, C. Edmonds, G. Edwards
WR - D. Adams, A. Robinson, T. McLaurin, M. Brown, D. Parker, P. Williams, D. Slayton, T. Fulgham, Q. Cephus
TE - D. Goedert, M. Gesicki, A. Trautman
Rookie picks (3 round draft): 1.10, 2.05, 2.10, 3.10

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Avery » Mon May 03, 2021 10:25 am

GOTGDynasty wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 8:14 pm
I appreciate your question because I hadn't ever thought about comparing the two. Waddle was the second WR on my board. Toney was the fifth. I'm also a Giants fan and when the pick happened I was a little perplexed and disappointed that he got chosen before Bateman.

All three are faster-than-average. Waddle at 4.37, Toney at 4.38 and Bateman clocks at 4.39 in the 40-yard dash. None are as fast as Tyreek Hill (4.27) but each could be for their teams a similar kind of playmaker if the QB rises to the occasion. Speed alone doesn't account for much in my book. Cynthia Frehlund has found that 4.5 guys generally do as well as faster guys in the league. But it counts some.

My disappointment has waned a bit as others began weighing in. Jags coach Urban Meyer confessed to the media after drafting Etienne that there was another guy he wanted and it broke his heart that guy went first. He later said it was Toney. Charley Casserly and a bunch of other smart experienced guys went nuts over the Toney pick.

I do share the concerns some have shared here about whether Jason Garrett can do Toney right and not just relegate him to gadget player (a la Tavon Austin). Interestingly, Toney used to play QB. He had to learn the WR position relatively recently. The more I learn, the better I feel about the pick.

The other thing about Toney is yards after the catch. Waddle and Toney are ranked by PFF first and second in this class in yards after catch, with Toney having the leading stats on forcing missed tackles after catches.

Both these guys are in AJ Brown - Percy Harvin territory by the YAC stat.

I like Waddle better because I trust Tua more than Daniel Jones as QB. But if Jones doesn't do the job this year the Giants have the draft capital in 2022 to get a high pick replacement. Landing team has influence. But it was AJ Brown himself who showed us recently that landing spot doesn't tell all. Talent in the end finds a way. Brown made Tannehill better as a QB. Which of these guys - Waddle or Toney, and I would add Bateman to the conversation - can make their guy a better QB will probably answer your question.

Again, I appreciate the question because it made me approach my own from a different angle.
I like this overview and thinking maybe if Judge can get Gettleman to trade down (twice!) perhaps he can get Garrett to be creative on offense too! :lol:
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 1 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – D. Jones, J. Hurts
RB – J.K. Dobbins, G. Edwards, R. Mostert
WR – C. Lamb, H. Ruggs, L. Shenault, C. Samuel, D. Duvernay
TE – I. Smith, L. Thomas
Rookie picks: 1.01, 1.03, 2.01, 3.03, 4.03, 5.03, 2 x 2022 1st, 2 x 2022 2nd


Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - S. Barkley, A. Kamra, Da. Johnson, C. Edmonds, G. Edwards
WR - D. Adams, A. Robinson, T. McLaurin, M. Brown, D. Parker, P. Williams, D. Slayton, T. Fulgham, Q. Cephus
TE - D. Goedert, M. Gesicki, A. Trautman
Rookie picks (3 round draft): 1.10, 2.05, 2.10, 3.10

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Blueboy » Mon May 03, 2021 10:29 am

-THE DUDE- wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 9:07 am
As a Gators fan and watching a lot of Toney he is still super raw at WR. I think this year where he was finally healthy and had good QB play he showed how far he’s come. Still needs to work on route running but with his short area quickness and burst he can be absolutely uncoverable if he can perfect his craft. Quicker than he is fast...that 40 time was slightly misleading as he doesn’t have great break away speed. Much stronger runner than you’d think based on size. Waddle is definitely the safer prospect
I think this is largely it. Consensus of NFL draft guys seems to be that Waddle is immediately ready to contribute at the pro level, while Toney has all the tools to develop the same way, but is currently much more raw.

Both players seem to have similar upside, so if you're drafting Waddle early in the 1st of your rookie draft, in some sense you're paying a premium for the "safer" prospect. It's probably fair to question whether being labeled a "safe" or "NFL ready" actually means anything. Personally, I do like Waddle's landing spot considerably better, and I value the fact that his route running is so polished. But I wouldn't second-guess someone fading him and buying the value on Toney.

12-team SF, PPR, TE premium, 0.25 PPCarry
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Watson, Tua, Fields, Love
RB: Barkley, J.Williams, D. Evans, Snell, McKissic, Perine, Ahmed
WR: DJ Moore, Lamb, Hollywood, Hardman, V. Jefferson, P. Williams, Duvernay, Agholor, Cephus
TE: Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, Irv Smith, OJH

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Avery » Mon May 03, 2021 12:45 pm

Blueboy wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 10:29 am
-THE DUDE- wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 9:07 am
As a Gators fan and watching a lot of Toney he is still super raw at WR. I think this year where he was finally healthy and had good QB play he showed how far he’s come. Still needs to work on route running but with his short area quickness and burst he can be absolutely uncoverable if he can perfect his craft. Quicker than he is fast...that 40 time was slightly misleading as he doesn’t have great break away speed. Much stronger runner than you’d think based on size. Waddle is definitely the safer prospect
I think this is largely it. Consensus of NFL draft guys seems to be that Waddle is immediately ready to contribute at the pro level, while Toney has all the tools to develop the same way, but is currently much more raw.

Both players seem to have similar upside, so if you're drafting Waddle early in the 1st of your rookie draft, in some sense you're paying a premium for the "safer" prospect. It's probably fair to question whether being labeled a "safe" or "NFL ready" actually means anything. Personally, I do like Waddle's landing spot considerably better, and I value the fact that his route running is so polished. But I wouldn't second-guess someone fading him and buying the value on Toney.
This sounds right.

Thinking about it more, I think the concerns with Garrett are overblown. Judge has shown to be savvy in his short time as a head coach and I don't think he would have approved of drafting Toney if he wasn't confident that they would be creative in their use of him.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 1 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – D. Jones, J. Hurts
RB – J.K. Dobbins, G. Edwards, R. Mostert
WR – C. Lamb, H. Ruggs, L. Shenault, C. Samuel, D. Duvernay
TE – I. Smith, L. Thomas
Rookie picks: 1.01, 1.03, 2.01, 3.03, 4.03, 5.03, 2 x 2022 1st, 2 x 2022 2nd


Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - S. Barkley, A. Kamra, Da. Johnson, C. Edmonds, G. Edwards
WR - D. Adams, A. Robinson, T. McLaurin, M. Brown, D. Parker, P. Williams, D. Slayton, T. Fulgham, Q. Cephus
TE - D. Goedert, M. Gesicki, A. Trautman
Rookie picks (3 round draft): 1.10, 2.05, 2.10, 3.10

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Vcize » Tue May 04, 2021 9:06 am

As someone sitting at 1.07 expecting Waddle to be the guy there, this is actually a good thread and brings up a comparison I hadn't thought of.

Waddle was ranked WELL ahead of Toney pre-draft so passing it off as just a difference in landing spots is taking the easy way out. The reality is people think of Waddle as a much better player than Toney, and asking "why?" is a fair question.

As a Gators fan I think there are some fallacies around Toney. Namely that he was a gadget player. To be fair, he was brought in as a gadget player. He wore Percy Harvin's number, he started off getting nothing but screens, reverses, or straight up handoffs. His official position wasn't even WR, it was "utility".

But he wasn't actually very good at that stuff. He was no Percy. So the Gators kind of gave up on that, switched his official position to WR, and played him in a more typical WR role. And he flourished at that this year, to the tune of 70-984-10, far better than any full season Waddle has put together. It turns out Toney's moves work much better without the ball in his hands on pass routes than they do with the ball in his hands on gadget plays.

I don't get the argument on the first page that Toney didn't have to earn his targets like Waddle did. #4 overall pick Kyle Pitts isn't exactly chopped liver. And the notion that "people feel Waddle can be as good as Jeudy/Ruggs" isn't exactly a great selling point right now given the current fantasy value of Jeudy/Ruggs.

When push comes to shove and I'm sure I will take Waddle. Why? I don't know, because NFL scouts say so I guess. When I watch their highlights I don't see that large of a difference. But scouts rank Waddle extremely highly and are fairly meh on Toney. I think a part of that is that even analysts/scouts have gotten caught in the trap of Toney being a gadget guy because 3 out of 4 years of his highlights are him being used in that role, and they look at his statline from this past year and assume it came in the same manner. But I can't ignore that guys like McShay/Jeremiah rank Waddle among their top 5 WRs of the last 5-10 years and probably don't even think highly enough of Toney to spell his name right. I don't get it, but with that large of a gulf I can't really ignore it.

Probably in the end I'll get burned again by a WR that got to run downfield unimpeded as defenses dealt with other threats on the field, with plenty of time for long routes to develop thanks to a brick wall of NFL linemen playing against college competition, while catching passes from a trio of NFL starting QBs. Maybe this time he'll finally really be "different" but probably not. As a Dolphins fan at least I'll have a fun rooting interest though.
12 Team FFPC TE Premium
QB: Murray, Brady
RB: Barkley, Mixon, A Jones, Coleman, Ballage
WR: Hopkins, Hill, Evans, J Jefferson, Fulgham, Preston
TE: Goedert

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Re: Waddle v. Toney: What's the difference?

Postby Avery » Tue May 04, 2021 10:40 am

Vcize wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 9:06 am
As someone sitting at 1.07 expecting Waddle to be the guy there, this is actually a good thread and brings up a comparison I hadn't thought of.

Waddle was ranked WELL ahead of Toney pre-draft so passing it off as just a difference in landing spots is taking the easy way out. The reality is people think of Waddle as a much better player than Toney, and asking "why?" is a fair question.

As a Gators fan I think there are some fallacies around Toney. Namely that he was a gadget player. To be fair, he was brought in as a gadget player. He wore Percy Harvin's number, he started off getting nothing but screens, reverses, or straight up handoffs. His official position wasn't even WR, it was "utility".

But he wasn't actually very good at that stuff. He was no Percy. So the Gators kind of gave up on that, switched his official position to WR, and played him in a more typical WR role. And he flourished at that this year, to the tune of 70-984-10, far better than any full season Waddle has put together. It turns out Toney's moves work much better without the ball in his hands on pass routes than they do with the ball in his hands on gadget plays.

I don't get the argument on the first page that Toney didn't have to earn his targets like Waddle did. #4 overall pick Kyle Pitts isn't exactly chopped liver. And the notion that "people feel Waddle can be as good as Jeudy/Ruggs" isn't exactly a great selling point right now given the current fantasy value of Jeudy/Ruggs.

When push comes to shove and I'm sure I will take Waddle. Why? I don't know, because NFL scouts say so I guess. When I watch their highlights I don't see that large of a difference. But scouts rank Waddle extremely highly and are fairly meh on Toney. I think a part of that is that even analysts/scouts have gotten caught in the trap of Toney being a gadget guy because 3 out of 4 years of his highlights are him being used in that role, and they look at his statline from this past year and assume it came in the same manner. But I can't ignore that guys like McShay/Jeremiah rank Waddle among their top 5 WRs of the last 5-10 years and probably don't even think highly enough of Toney to spell his name right. I don't get it, but with that large of a gulf I can't really ignore it.

Probably in the end I'll get burned again by a WR that got to run downfield unimpeded as defenses dealt with other threats on the field, with plenty of time for long routes to develop thanks to a brick wall of NFL linemen playing against college competition, while catching passes from a trio of NFL starting QBs. Maybe this time he'll finally really be "different" but probably not. As a Dolphins fan at least I'll have a fun rooting interest though.
Good points and good discussion but I think you may be doing some completing of the fantasy community vs. scouts here.

Waddle was the 2nd WR taken (1.06)
Toney was the 4th WR taken (1.20)

So by results, at least one scouting department (and two if you count what Urban Meyer said about being bummed he missed on him in the 1st round) had them just a few ranking apart. I don't know if we ever know what other interval NFL scouting departments think (I assume anything they "leak" is self-serving propaganda) but I do know that Matt Waldman said he had Toney 5th in his WR rankings so couldn't have them too far apart either.

My point isn't that Toney should be taken over Waddle, he shouldn't, but I just see similar players with similar upside here and think where Toney is falling in rookie drafts, he's just exceptional value with upside for days.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 1 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – D. Jones, J. Hurts
RB – J.K. Dobbins, G. Edwards, R. Mostert
WR – C. Lamb, H. Ruggs, L. Shenault, C. Samuel, D. Duvernay
TE – I. Smith, L. Thomas
Rookie picks: 1.01, 1.03, 2.01, 3.03, 4.03, 5.03, 2 x 2022 1st, 2 x 2022 2nd


Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - S. Barkley, A. Kamra, Da. Johnson, C. Edmonds, G. Edwards
WR - D. Adams, A. Robinson, T. McLaurin, M. Brown, D. Parker, P. Williams, D. Slayton, T. Fulgham, Q. Cephus
TE - D. Goedert, M. Gesicki, A. Trautman
Rookie picks (3 round draft): 1.10, 2.05, 2.10, 3.10


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