2020 LA Chargers

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2020 LA Chargers

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:34 pm

I'm not a Chargers fan but this team has alot (yes, alot) of fantasy intrigue for me. Losing Rivers and Gordon creates so much opportunity. I've read/heard various pieces that either the offensive players are great values (including Tyrod Taylor) as well as the other argument that every player is a sell.

How do you see this playing out over a 16 game schedule? Does a "defense and ball control" gameplan make guys like Allen and Henry sells, especially when the QB alternative is a rookie with no offseason and too many questions about his game? Is Ekeler a buy with Gordon gone or a sell as a part of a committee? Does Mike Williams finally fulfill his perceived potential?

How do you see all this shaking out?
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex

League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def

League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def

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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby TheNuts » Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:38 pm

Tyrod Taylor? Hard pass.
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots

14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver

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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:49 pm

I think they are an outright dumpster fire

Tyrod is not good
Justin Herbert? LMAO. I was always going to laugh at whomever picked him but I'll take a pick that gives the Chiefs 2 free wins and balances out the Broncos all of a sudden being competent, drafting well (for the most part) and looking scary

Their defense is overrated--good but overrated. Derwin and Bosa are studs. Murray is going to be really good some day. Adderley has some promise
Besides that? not impressed--to say the least. Heyward has been overrated for years now. CHJ is a shell of himself. Hilarious to see the media hyping those guys up as some kind of legion of boom. They are committed to naming the Chargers offseason AFC West champs for like the 7th time in the last 10 years

The thing about their fantasy guys though...

Their OL should be slightly less terrible with Trai Turner; but as long as Tyrod and "Mitch Trubisky but worse" are throwing the ball I can't see any kind of upside

Without Rivers' check downs Ekeler drops somewhat--even though Tyrod checks down too--KA can get separation so he should be better off than most but he always had a boom bust quality week to week and his "booms" are going to be capped significantly now

Henry is hurt too but less so than the others as long as Tyrod is there (He dumped off to his TEs quite a bit in Buffalo)

Deep play threat who can't separate like Mike Williams is basically useless now IMO

On top of all of this far less scoring and TDs

After Tyrod though: When the 6th best QB in the 6th best conference in college football comes out...
sell, sell, sell

This offense will go from bad to downright atrocious


I see 3-13 and a new QB in the first round next year if the season is played

They are going to regret scapegoating Rivers for all their problems when he is going to the playoffs as the Chargers are praying for every top QB prospect to declare

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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby Blueboy » Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:34 pm

This team intrigues me too, though I uptimately think 2020 ends up as a transition year even if we get a full 16-game season. Dumping my thoughts:

QB1: I like Tyrod, he gets a lot more hate than he deserved. Was at the end of the mid-tier starting QBs in Buffalo, and he was always better than that for fantasy. His style of play should keep HH and Ekeler involved, but likely hurts KA and Mike Williams (MW the most).
QB2: Herbert is... a real wild card. Not a fan of his coming out, I think he's a true "needs to sit a year guy" like Haskins was last year, but this is a great landing spot for him. He's got a good coaching staff to develop him, a vet starter who should let him sit at least half a season, and a legit top-10 skill positions group surrounding him. The O-line is a concern though, and if things go wrong at any point I think there's very little chance he'll manage to elevate what's around him as a rookie. Athleticism and the mentality he showed in college both give him big fantasy upside though, imo he has the highest ceiling and lowest floor of this QB class, both by a pretty significant margin.

WR1: KA is going to take a big hit regardless of who lines up under center. Think of him as more of a mid-range WR2 than as the low-end WR1 he's been in the past, though that could easily change by '21 if Herbert develops well. Luckily, his price has more than compensated for this already. It seems like very owner is terrified to own the guy -- me included, I guess, I ended up trading away both my shares this offseason, but rebuilds necessitate things sometimes.
WR2: I am quite high on MW for his price, this guy has shown much more in the NFL than people give him credit for. He's effectively going into Year 3 and has flashed as much many of the hyped young WRs commanding multiple firsts have, but MW costs you maybe a 2nd. IIRC h had the highest YPR of anyone who got actual WR1 target volume (80+ targets) last year, beating out AJ Brown. Plus the best first down per reception rate. He is already 25, I suppose. The downgrade at QB may very well kill his fantasy value for 2020, but I like him to take a (real life) big step forward in his development this year. Estimating improved QB play in 2021 is a risk, but he could be in position to take over the alpha role in LA this time next year. Slowly becoming a "my guy."
WR3: Not interested in this position on this team, but Joe Reed and K.J. Hill are free most everywhere and as good of fliers as any.

RB1: If you've got Ekeler, keep him. He's as safe an option as there is in the league to finish as a low-end RB1 for the next few years, and that's probably his floor. Take advantage of PPR scoring formats and grab a "running back" who'll line up at about five separate positions in a given week. If you don't have him, he's probably too pricey to buy. I'd consider him QB proof, though Tyrod/Herbert should both scramble much more than the statue-in-a-pocket Rivers did, which'll eat slightly into Ekeler's dump-off total. The added rushing opportunity should cancel that out, at the least.
RB2: Folk love Joshua Kelley, but Justin Jackson can be had without the hype-cost and should still be considered the favorite for the 2 role imo. It was ridiculous watching this dude in 2019, all his best runs (a handful of long breakaways and some scores, IRRC) were called back due to penalties that didn't directly impact the play. Then the calf injury happened, Gordon came back, the rest is history. There's also the bonus of him being the best Twitter follow in the NFL, he's the ideal player to have filling out the last spot on your roster.

TE1: People are fatigued waiting for Henry to break out, or they've attached an injury-prone label to him (you can safely ignore that). He's remains my TE5, bright future and one of the few options on LAC I'd be willing to count on for fantasy purposes in 2020. Tyrod historically likes the TE and Henry is the best he'll have played with, and rookies usually feed TEs as well.
TE2: Nothing to see here imo. Then again what do I know, maybe a 40-year-old Antonio Gates comes out of retirement again and gets a 30% snap share.

12-team SF, PPR, TE premium, 0.25 PPCarry
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Mahomes, Fields, Love
RB: Bijan, ETN, Pollard, Achane, Herbert
WR: Kupp, Hill, Metcalf, Ridley, Jeudy, D.J. M, Burks, Hollywood, Wan'Dale
TE: Kyle Pitts, Goedert

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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:59 pm

Blueboy wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:34 pm This team intrigues me too, though I uptimately think 2020 ends up as a transition year even if we get a full 16-game season. Dumping my thoughts:

QB1: I like Tyrod, he gets a lot more hate than he deserved. Was at the end of the mid-tier starting QBs in Buffalo, and he was always better than that for fantasy. His style of play should keep HH and Ekeler involved, but likely hurts KA and Mike Williams (MW the most).
QB2: Herbert is... a real wild card. Not a fan of his coming out, I think he's a true "needs to sit a year guy" like Haskins was last year, but this is a great landing spot for him. He's got a good coaching staff to develop him, a vet starter who should let him sit at least half a season, and a legit top-10 skill positions group surrounding him. The O-line is a concern though, and if things go wrong at any point I think there's very little chance he'll manage to elevate what's around him as a rookie. Athleticism and the mentality he showed in college both give him big fantasy upside though, imo he has the highest ceiling and lowest floor of this QB class, both by a pretty significant margin.

WR1: KA is going to take a big hit regardless of who lines up under center. Think of him as more of a mid-range WR2 than as the low-end WR1 he's been in the past, though that could easily change by '21 if Herbert develops well. Luckily, his price has more than compensated for this already. It seems like very owner is terrified to own the guy -- me included, I guess, I ended up trading away both my shares this offseason, but rebuilds necessitate things sometimes.
WR2: I am quite high on MW for his price, this guy has shown much more in the NFL than people give him credit for. He's effectively going into Year 3 and has flashed as much many of the hyped young WRs commanding multiple firsts have, but MW costs you maybe a 2nd. IIRC h had the highest YPR of anyone who got actual WR1 target volume (80+ targets) last year, beating out AJ Brown. Plus the best first down per reception rate. He is already 25, I suppose. The downgrade at QB may very well kill his fantasy value for 2020, but I like him to take a (real life) big step forward in his development this year. Estimating improved QB play in 2021 is a risk, but he could be in position to take over the alpha role in LA this time next year. Slowly becoming a "my guy."
WR3: Not interested in this position on this team, but Joe Reed and K.J. Hill are free most everywhere and as good of fliers as any.

RB1: If you've got Ekeler, keep him. He's as safe an option as there is in the league to finish as a low-end RB1 for the next few years, and that's probably his floor. Take advantage of PPR scoring formats and grab a "running back" who'll line up at about five separate positions in a given week. If you don't have him, he's probably too pricey to buy. I'd consider him QB proof, though Tyrod/Herbert should both scramble much more than the statue-in-a-pocket Rivers did, which'll eat slightly into Ekeler's dump-off total. The added rushing opportunity should cancel that out, at the least.
RB2: Folk love Joshua Kelley, but Justin Jackson can be had without the hype-cost and should still be considered the favorite for the 2 role imo. It was ridiculous watching this dude in 2019, all his best runs (a handful of long breakaways and some scores, IRRC) were called back due to penalties that didn't directly impact the play. Then the calf injury happened, Gordon came back, the rest is history. There's also the bonus of him being the best Twitter follow in the NFL, he's the ideal player to have filling out the last spot on your roster.

TE1: People are fatigued waiting for Henry to break out, or they've attached an injury-prone label to him (you can safely ignore that). He's remains my TE5, bright future and one of the few options on LAC I'd be willing to count on for fantasy purposes in 2020. Tyrod historically likes the TE and Henry is the best he'll have played with, and rookies usually feed TEs as well.
TE2: Nothing to see here imo. Then again what do I know, maybe a 40-year-old Antonio Gates comes out of retirement again and gets a 30% snap share.
Damn good write up

I don't agree on everything--like Williams--3 years and he still can't get separation, has questionable hands and hardly even looks like he is running a route, or Ekeler having low RB1 as his floor--more like his ceiling (and maybe not even that when Trashbert comes in), but it is very thorough examination of this team.

I still see them as a real life dumpster fire and AFC West doormat, but I am a bit more encouraged on Henry's prospects

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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby Blueboy » Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:08 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:59 pm
Blueboy wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:34 pm WR2: I am quite high on MW for his price, this guy has shown much more in the NFL than people give him credit for. He's effectively going into Year 3 and has flashed as much many of the hyped young WRs commanding multiple firsts have, but MW costs you maybe a 2nd. IIRC h had the highest YPR of anyone who got actual WR1 target volume (80+ targets) last year, beating out AJ Brown. Plus the best first down per reception rate. He is already 25, I suppose. The downgrade at QB may very well kill his fantasy value for 2020, but I like him to take a (real life) big step forward in his development this year. Estimating improved QB play in 2021 is a risk, but he could be in position to take over the alpha role in LA this time next year. Slowly becoming a "my guy."
Damn good write up

I don't agree on everything--like Williams--3 years and he still can't get separation, has questionable hands and hardly even looks like he is running a route, or Ekeler having low RB1 as his floor--more like his ceiling (and maybe not even that when Trashbert comes in), but it is very thorough examination of this team.

I still see them as a real life dumpster fire and AFC West doormat, but I am a bit more encouraged on Henry's prospects
Part of the equation for MW's catch rate is the role he played, as well. He was used almost entirely in a field-stretching capacity (eclipsing 1,000 yards on just 49 receptions evidences that well enough) with Rivers as a less-than-desirable deep-field passer. Tried to pull up numbers on catchable passes thrown his way, but couldn't find anything without a paywall. This isn't exactly the best evidence, but watching most of LAC's games last year, MW's targets were often very lackluster compared to what he saw in 2018, when he had a 65 percent catch rate. He had just three drops last year, not too egregious.

To damper my praise of him though, the context is that his price remains pretty low. I anticipate Ekeler/Keenan/HH taking up all the short/intermediate routes, leaving MW to only work deep again. I'm higher on Tyrod and Herbert than it seems like you are, but I don't think they have much of a chance of sustaining a deep threat for fantasy. MW is someone I'm stashing for two years down the line.

Maybe I'm too high on Ekeler, but is it really realistic to call a low-end RB1 his floor after he finished as the RB4 overall just last year? In PPR, specifically, he seems like a really safe bet to finish within the top-12. I've never owned him, so I don't think this is a case of rose-colored glasses.

12-team SF, PPR, TE premium, 0.25 PPCarry
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Mahomes, Fields, Love
RB: Bijan, ETN, Pollard, Achane, Herbert
WR: Kupp, Hill, Metcalf, Ridley, Jeudy, D.J. M, Burks, Hollywood, Wan'Dale
TE: Kyle Pitts, Goedert

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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:09 pm

So the scary about the LA Chargers is that they have almost nothing to lose as the bar for them is exponentially low. That's almost a dangerous thing as they could have the "Cutler effect". The Defense can hit people in the mouth and get the ball back fairly quickly giving the offense added chances to make plays. I'm not saying they'll make plays, but I think the added possessions could aid in the fantasy aspect of someone like Ekeler. Garbage points ftw.
10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Herbert, Goff
RB: Bijan, JT, Saquon, J.Cook, K.Hunt, Foreman, Z.White, McKinnon, S.Tucker
WR: G.Wilson, Olave, Jeudy, Pittman, J.Williams, OBJ, N. Brown, JuJu,
TE: Chig, Conklin, L. Thomas
Taxi: M.Mims, Ro. Johnson
'24: (4) 1sts, 2nd, (2) 3rds, 4th
'25: (2) 1sts, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:21 pm

Blueboy wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:34 pm

RB1: If you've got Ekeler, keep him. He's as safe an option as there is in the league to finish as a low-end RB1 for the next few years, and that's probably his floor. Take advantage of PPR scoring formats and grab a "running back" who'll line up at about five separate positions in a given week. If you don't have him, he's probably too pricey to buy. I'd consider him QB proof, though Tyrod/Herbert should both scramble much more than the statue-in-a-pocket Rivers did, which'll eat slightly into Ekeler's dump-off total. The added rushing opportunity should cancel that out, at the least.
Still have him in 2 leagues, but I was offered Evans or Cooper for him in my best ball league, and had to take it. RB's get a slight advantage with 0.1 per carry, and 0.5 for first down vs 0.25 for WR's, but I still preferred either WR. I went Coop. I love Ekeler, and still think he's a good PPR play, but I have a tough time believing his receiving stats are repeated.
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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:11 pm

I think everyone's numbers will drop in this offense, but I still like Allen as a value just because of the upside that he can have big games.

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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby Orenthal Shames » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:51 pm

This team is an older, win-now team. I fully expect Tyrod to not only start until LAC falls out of contention, but to be a low end QB1 during that time.

Passing volume should be down, so I don't have much to add there. I do expect Joshua Kelley to get more work than most expect though.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby StripesOfKC » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:53 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:51 pm This team is an older, win-now team. I fully expect Tyrod to not only start until LAC falls out of contention, but to be a low end QB1 during that time.
So...some time in October?

Only way he is even a mid QB2 is if he runs a ton, and near the end zone preferably

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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:42 am

Orenthal Shames wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:51 pm This team is an older, win-now team. I fully expect Tyrod to not only start until LAC falls out of contention, but to be a low end QB1 during that time.

Passing volume should be down, so I don't have much to add there. I do expect Joshua Kelley to get more work than most expect though.
I definitely am down on this offense. Tyrod may hit those numbers (I see more like mid QB2 numbers), but his value in dynasty will never rise much at this point.

I soured on Justin Jackson after the Kelley pick and because Ekeler showed he can do it all last year.

Also, not sure how to feel about Mike Williams. I still like him as a flyer but I have serious doubts about him now with these new QB. Maybe they are better than an aging Rivers, but I'm not sold.

Only parts of this offense I trust are Keenan and Ekeler (also Henry if he stays healthy could have a nice year)

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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby Orenthal Shames » Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:45 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:53 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:51 pm This team is an older, win-now team. I fully expect Tyrod to not only start until LAC falls out of contention, but to be a low end QB1 during that time.
So...some time in October?

Only way he is even a mid QB2 is if he runs a ton, and near the end zone preferably
He averaged 525 yards and nearly 5 tds rushing in his 3 years in Buffalo as a starter and has the 6th most rushing TDs of any QB since 2016.

He now gets a massively upgraded supporting cast.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:55 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:45 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:53 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:51 pm This team is an older, win-now team. I fully expect Tyrod to not only start until LAC falls out of contention, but to be a low end QB1 during that time.
So...some time in October?

Only way he is even a mid QB2 is if he runs a ton, and near the end zone preferably
He averaged 525 yards and nearly 5 tds rushing in his 3 years in Buffalo as a starter and has the 6th most rushing TDs of any QB since 2016.

He now gets a massively upgraded supporting cast.
He also has started any significant amount of games in years, and will be 31 by the time the year starts. If you can get mid range QB 2 out of him, that's a win. Chances are Herbert finishes the year, IMO, but if Tyrod starts off with a good game or two, you might be able to flip him for a decent pick.
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Re: 2020 LA Chargers

Postby Orenthal Shames » Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:01 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:55 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:45 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:53 pm

So...some time in October?

Only way he is even a mid QB2 is if he runs a ton, and near the end zone preferably
He averaged 525 yards and nearly 5 tds rushing in his 3 years in Buffalo as a starter and has the 6th most rushing TDs of any QB since 2016.

He now gets a massively upgraded supporting cast.
He also has started any significant amount of games in years, and will be 31 by the time the year starts. If you can get mid range QB 2 out of him, that's a win. Chances are Herbert finishes the year, IMO, but if Tyrod starts off with a good game or two, you might be able to flip him for a decent pick.
I don't doubt Herbert plays eventually, but I think Tyrod plays more games than most expect. LAC is a playoff caliber roster that got annihilated by injuries in 2019. Taylor can keep them competitive for a while.

If he rushes for 500/4, he's basically 2019 Josh Allen lite.
Last edited by Orenthal Shames on Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2


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