Burrow not a Bengal?

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ColdZealDonkeyStrike
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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Tue Apr 14, 2020 3:09 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:28 pm It feels like in every draft there's a "tools" QB, and they usually don't pan out. Bortles and Trubisky come to mind as those types of QBs. Anytime I watched Herbert, he just never really excited me as a prospect.
Likewise, he gives me the Blaine Gabbert vibe. Looks the part, but missing some of the unmeasurable stuff. As a dolphins fan, I really don't want him unless he falls to one of the later 1sts.

Cincinnati coaches did have a week to coach him and get 1st hand experience with him at the senior bowl. So maybe some of their staff fell in love then, but this still seems like someone blowing smoke.
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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:28 am

ColdZealDonkeyStrike wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 3:09 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:28 pm It feels like in every draft there's a "tools" QB, and they usually don't pan out. Bortles and Trubisky come to mind as those types of QBs. Anytime I watched Herbert, he just never really excited me as a prospect.
Likewise, he gives me the Blaine Gabbert vibe. Looks the part, but missing some of the unmeasurable stuff. As a dolphins fan, I really don't want him unless he falls to one of the later 1sts.

Cincinnati coaches did have a week to coach him and get 1st hand experience with him at the senior bowl. So maybe some of their staff fell in love then, but this still seems like someone blowing smoke.
Some of those other “tools” QBs are Josh Allen and Drew Lock, for whatever that’s worth. I’ve never drafted these guys, but clearly some of them hit.
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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby Ice » Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:33 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:23 pm
Ice wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:01 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 7:34 pm

Herbert being equal or better than Burrow?

That's...peculiar.
After Burrow's season it's hard to make that claim but looking at pure arm talent a case could be made. Herbert's release and velocity are better. His mechanics are also better IMO.

Burrow is my top QB because he makes elite decisions IMO but Herbert also has all the tools to be a stud in this league.

Both are lock top 10 players and probably top 5. The drop off isn't very much so I could see a few thinking Herbert could be better long term.

Tua may be more talented than either but his injury risk will scare off a few teams.

Reminds me a bit of the 2004 class between the top 3 QB's. Herbert would be the slightly taller and more athletic Big Ben in that group.
I completely disagree. His mechanics are only good consistently when he's not pressured and goes to his first read. I found this video, after I had done my Herbert "study" and agree with quite a bit of it, noticing these things myself. Not going as far as to say he's a bust, but I have my concerns. Really don't like the ball flip he does on play action, on top of not reading the field well for a 4 year started and having inconsistent mechanics still.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Qj_TIx1FuA
Can't hardly believe you posted that crap. Very easy to make any player look terrible with film of bad plays. I could make Brady or Mahomes look terrible easily.

That clip is about as good as comping Joe Burrow to Jamarcus Russell because they both went to LSU.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0dVSVEhvZw

Flipping the ball BTW has absolutely ZERO to do with throwing mechanics. That is a nervous habit that will probably get cleaned up but if not, as one in the video below mentioned, Kurt Warner did that all the time. Jordan stuck his tounge out when he shot the ball. Athletes do strange things.

There are two real breakdowns at the bottom of this post of how coaches look at throwing mechanics. Very similar to how baseball pitching coaches study film.

Herbert actually makes throwing look pretty easy. Not perfect but his mechanics are incredibility good at this stage. He does look a little boring mainly because there isn't much wasted movement. Tim Duncan was the most boring looking basketball player of all time on his way to the HOF.

Herbert could fail but I highly doubt it. Wouldn't surprise me if he is the 2nd QB drafted.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXv6jKSDcHg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOY6xzU5XD0
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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:31 am

Ice wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:33 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:23 pm
Ice wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:01 pm

After Burrow's season it's hard to make that claim but looking at pure arm talent a case could be made. Herbert's release and velocity are better. His mechanics are also better IMO.

Burrow is my top QB because he makes elite decisions IMO but Herbert also has all the tools to be a stud in this league.

Both are lock top 10 players and probably top 5. The drop off isn't very much so I could see a few thinking Herbert could be better long term.

Tua may be more talented than either but his injury risk will scare off a few teams.

Reminds me a bit of the 2004 class between the top 3 QB's. Herbert would be the slightly taller and more athletic Big Ben in that group.
I completely disagree. His mechanics are only good consistently when he's not pressured and goes to his first read. I found this video, after I had done my Herbert "study" and agree with quite a bit of it, noticing these things myself. Not going as far as to say he's a bust, but I have my concerns. Really don't like the ball flip he does on play action, on top of not reading the field well for a 4 year started and having inconsistent mechanics still.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Qj_TIx1FuA
Can't hardly believe you posted that crap. Very easy to make any player look terrible with film of bad plays. I could make Brady or Mahomes look terrible easily.

That clip is about as good as comping Joe Burrow to Jamarcus Russell because they both went to LSU.

My point stands that Herbert is inconsistent with his accuracy and his mechanics. He's erratic. One of the first things I noticed when studying him. He lacks touch and consistency. I think he lacks feel for the game. I showed this video because it highlighted things consistent with my findings.
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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby Ice » Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:17 am

No worries, I disagree with your assessment.

My take is we are only seeing the tip of his talent and he will get much better. He has all the tools needed to succeed and be a star in this league. He has a rare gift in his right arm and the highest ceiling in this class.

I have him as the 3rd QB today but long term he could be the cream of this crop of QB's.
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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:31 am

It is very easy to go down the rabbit hole in scouting, and I think the current conversation is causing us to do just that.

In my mind, it's simple. Burrow checks the box for me. He looks the part of a legitimate franchise QB. Herbert also looks good and like a franchise QB-type, but not as good as Burrow. We're getting too far into the weeds with qualifiers on statements and hedging of bets.

Simplify it, no need to drive yourselves crazy.

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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:33 am

It's almost as if amateur film scouting is entirely subjective and not a good use of time for any fantasy gamer.
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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:13 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:33 am It's almost as if amateur film scouting is entirely subjective and not a good use of time for any fantasy gamer.
Metrics aren't very good predictors of QB success, though. Matt Kelley himself acknowledges that.
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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby CGW » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:32 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:13 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:33 am It's almost as if amateur film scouting is entirely subjective and not a good use of time for any fantasy gamer.
Metrics aren't very good predictors of QB success, though. Matt Kelley himself acknowledges that.
Sounds like neither metrics or film is a good predictor...so maybe none of us really know what we think we do?
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Prescott
RB | Jeff Wilson, Pierre-Strong
WR | Adams, Olave, ARSB, Dotson, Addison
TE | Andrews, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1st 2025 | 1stx3, 2nd, 3rdx2

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Tagovailoa, Stroud
RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, Singletary, Jamaal Williams, R. White, Davis-Price, Herbert, Miller
WR | Godwin, AJB, Lamb, D. Johnson, M. Brown, Mooney, Kirk, J. Williams, Skyy Moore, Watson
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1st, 2nd, 3rd

12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Herbert, Love, Young, Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, Ford, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Flowers, Collins, Downs
TE | Hockenson, Dulcich, Likely, Otton
2024 | 2nd, 3rdx3, 4th

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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:35 am

CGW wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:32 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:13 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:33 am It's almost as if amateur film scouting is entirely subjective and not a good use of time for any fantasy gamer.
Metrics aren't very good predictors of QB success, though. Matt Kelley himself acknowledges that.
Sounds like neither metrics or film is a good predictor...so maybe none of us really know what we think we do?
Yeah, but my point is, if you're looking to draft a QB in a fake football league, and metrics aren't a good predictor, you might as well watch him and see if you like him. Can sleep easier at night right or wrong on the decision if you do, rather than take Mel Kiper's word for it.
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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby CGW » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:48 am

I tend to agree. I look at draft capital and then highlights. Sometimes it's easy to see when someone has "it" versus someone who is uninspiring and boring on the field. I'm going to lean to the guy who has better film most of the time in a tie breaker.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Prescott
RB | Jeff Wilson, Pierre-Strong
WR | Adams, Olave, ARSB, Dotson, Addison
TE | Andrews, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1st 2025 | 1stx3, 2nd, 3rdx2

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Tagovailoa, Stroud
RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, Singletary, Jamaal Williams, R. White, Davis-Price, Herbert, Miller
WR | Godwin, AJB, Lamb, D. Johnson, M. Brown, Mooney, Kirk, J. Williams, Skyy Moore, Watson
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1st, 2nd, 3rd

12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Herbert, Love, Young, Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, Ford, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Flowers, Collins, Downs
TE | Hockenson, Dulcich, Likely, Otton
2024 | 2nd, 3rdx3, 4th

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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:54 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:13 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:33 am It's almost as if amateur film scouting is entirely subjective and not a good use of time for any fantasy gamer.
Metrics aren't very good predictors of QB success, though. Matt Kelley himself acknowledges that.
Yeah, but we're still talking about data that has a low Pearson coefficient vs. two people looking at the exact same play and describing opposite results. Limited utility vs. absolutely no utility. You're right that there's no magic metric for QBs, but that doesn't mean the data on them as wrong. Looking at the data helped me to realize there's almost no sure thing at QB. Even Baker Mayfield, one of the best prospects from an analytics perspective in recent history, was pegged as having a nearly 30% chance of busting by FootballOutsiders' QBASE model.

And again, because I feel this always gets misconstrued- there is value to film analysis when it's done properly, by somebody who is focusing on only one player, watching every play, charting what they're seeing, and then doing the same thing for every other relevant player at that position and comparing notes. That's just not what any of us are doing.

The idea that the metrics aren't perfect, so we should abandon them for something with absolutely zero quantifiable value that takes way more time and effort to acquire, doesn't make sense. The real takeaway should be to either just focus on draft capital and coaching and buy the guys who you're sure will have opportunity, or buy veteran QBs rather than using rookie capital.

Also Matt Kelley is just a guy trying to sell you stuff. He talks about metrics... and is currently touting Denzel Mims because he looked good in senior bowl practices.
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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:11 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:28 am
ColdZealDonkeyStrike wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 3:09 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:28 pm It feels like in every draft there's a "tools" QB, and they usually don't pan out. Bortles and Trubisky come to mind as those types of QBs. Anytime I watched Herbert, he just never really excited me as a prospect.
Likewise, he gives me the Blaine Gabbert vibe. Looks the part, but missing some of the unmeasurable stuff. As a dolphins fan, I really don't want him unless he falls to one of the later 1sts.

Cincinnati coaches did have a week to coach him and get 1st hand experience with him at the senior bowl. So maybe some of their staff fell in love then, but this still seems like someone blowing smoke.
Some of those other “tools” QBs are Josh Allen and Drew Lock, for whatever that’s worth. I’ve never drafted these guys, but clearly some of them hit.
Allen is sort of a hit. Too early for Lock.

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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:18 pm

CGW wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:48 am I tend to agree. I look at draft capital and then highlights. Sometimes it's easy to see when someone has "it" versus someone who is uninspiring and boring on the field. I'm going to lean to the guy who has better film most of the time in a tie breaker.
Yeah, I just don't see how anyone can pigeonhole themselves into one or the other. I wouldn't want to be just a tape guy and I wouldn't want to be just an advanced stats guy.

Be an information guy. Acquire as much knowledge about players in any logical and rational way that you can; then make an informed decision.

Just from what I've seen around here and in the fantasy community, I don't think an approach of strictly numbers does justice for WRs, TEs and QBs. There's too much that goes into the position that numbers can't accurately measure.

Whereas with RB...it's pretty straight forward.

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Re: Burrow not a Bengal?

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:29 pm

I learned long ago that I suck at trying to figure out which QB will be good.
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