KC Chiefs win projection

[ericanadian]

^^What point are you even making?
You stated something but then literally did not relate it to the current topic at hand.

Last year the Chiefs went 2-4 against teams that made the playoffs during the regular season; they struggle against good competition. That is going to get worse because I don't see how anyone can say this team has improved.

They went 3-2 after releasing Hunt; and as much as some fantasy owners want to bang the drum for Damien Williams - he is no Kareem Hunt. Their offensive line is worse, they did not address the running game, they are transitioning to 4-3 and got rid of their two best pass rushers. Yes, they added Clark but I don't see how someone can definitively say this defense will be better.

I have no idea what "rankings" you are going by either.

Several people have referenced strength of schedule. If you can’t keep up, don’t participate. I am going by straight up win-loss records from the previous year. Even the slightest effort would make this clear.

[Phaded]

But win-loss from the prior year doesn't truly dictate strength of schedule, unless you are foolish enough to believe measuring the record of those teams from the prior year is actually an accurate representation of the strength of the teams for the upcoming year.

It is a lazy approach to the strength of schedule concept, which is what you are seemingly supporting.

[ericanadian]

But win-loss from the prior year doesn't truly dictate strength of schedule, unless you are foolish enough to believe measuring the record of those teams from the prior year is actually an accurate representation of the strength of the teams for the upcoming year.

It is a lazy approach to the strength of schedule concept, which is what you are seemingly supporting.

It is the most standardized approach. I don’t really care if you don’t like it. They lost three of the four games by a total of seven points. Why exactly is your point about win-loss against playoff teams any less lazy... other than you don’t want it to be.

[Phaded]

I didn't realize you get recognition for getting close to winning..

Oh wait, you don't.

You either win or lose, it is that simple.

[ericanadian]

I didn't realize you get recognition for getting close to winning..

Oh wait, you don't.

You either win or lose, it is that simple.

Whatever man. Happy fourth, you pompous bleep.

[Phaded]

Canadian, don't celebrate it.
But - happy fourth to you.

[knotts4372]

Anyone at 8 or below is probably posting from the loony bin. How can anybody be so divorced from reality?

Andy Reid has 3 seasons with less than 8 wins in 19 years as a Head Coach. His average number of wins per season is 9.8.

In KC, the last 6 years of his career, Reid has had 11, 9, 11, 12, 10, 12 wins. That is an average of 10.8 wins per season.

This coming year should be very close to the high end, quality wise, of the teams that Reid has coached in his career. He has 5x 11 win seasons, 4x 12 win seasons, and 1x 13 win season.

Downsides are Hill partial suspension, changes on O line, and difficult schedule. That’s about it. Upsides compared to last year are 2nd year for young QB, better WR depth, vastly improved Defense.

A reasonable projection for an O/U would be well above Reid’s career average, and slightly above his average in KC, as this is clearly one of the 3-4 best teams he has ever coached in his career and one of the best 1-2 teams he has had while in KC. And really, this team should be better than last year on paper by a good margin, but that could be mitigated by the more difficult schedule. The reasonable O/U projection would be 11-12 wins.

Vegas has the O/U at 10 now. Smash the over now before it shoots up as the sharks pound that number.

"Downsides are Hill partial suspension, changes on O line, and difficult schedule. That’s about it" thats it??? are you daft? those are 3 huge downsides while you mentuion upsides like 2nd year for mahomes (hes bound to regress), better wr depth? (very much debatable the wr depth is actually worse), and the biggest laugher of you thinking they got vastly better on defense? what in the world are you smoking??? they lost huge pieces on defense and really only brought in frank clark to fill the void of justin houston AND dee ford.

you just gloss over major concerns for them and act like they are nothing while mentioning them getting better at places that they just didnt.

[FantasyFreak]

Anyone at 8 or below is probably posting from the loony bin. How can anybody be so divorced from reality?

Andy Reid has 3 seasons with less than 8 wins in 19 years as a Head Coach. His average number of wins per season is 9.8.

In KC, the last 6 years of his career, Reid has had 11, 9, 11, 12, 10, 12 wins. That is an average of 10.8 wins per season.

This coming year should be very close to the high end, quality wise, of the teams that Reid has coached in his career. He has 5x 11 win seasons, 4x 12 win seasons, and 1x 13 win season.

Downsides are Hill partial suspension, changes on O line, and difficult schedule. That’s about it. Upsides compared to last year are 2nd year for young QB, better WR depth, vastly improved Defense.

A reasonable projection for an O/U would be well above Reid’s career average, and slightly above his average in KC, as this is clearly one of the 3-4 best teams he has ever coached in his career and one of the best 1-2 teams he has had while in KC. And really, this team should be better than last year on paper by a good margin, but that could be mitigated by the more difficult schedule. The reasonable O/U projection would be 11-12 wins.

Vegas has the O/U at 10 now. Smash the over now before it shoots up as the sharks pound that number.

"Downsides are Hill partial suspension, changes on O line, and difficult schedule. That’s about it" thats it??? are you daft? those are 3 huge downsides while you mentuion upsides like 2nd year for mahomes (hes bound to regress), better wr depth? (very much debatable the wr depth is actually worse), and the biggest laugher of you thinking they got vastly better on defense? what in the world are you smoking??? they lost huge pieces on defense and really only brought in frank clark to fill the void of justin houston AND dee ford.

you just gloss over major concerns for them and act like they are nothing while mentioning them getting better at places that they just didnt.

What about the "honey badger"? He's got a nickname. Eric Berry never had a nickname.

[knotts4372]

mathieu is really bad in coverage so their secondary is no better than last year. he's a big name that is gonna take the overpay they gave him and be just as average as hes been for a few years now. i really wanna know where this vastly improved defense is. they were bottom 5 in the league last year so i guess there really isnt much lower they could go. i guess thats what you mean?

[FantasyFreak]

mathieu is really bad in coverage so their secondary is no better than last year. he's a big name that is gonna take the overpay they gave him and be just as average as hes been for a few years now. i really wanna know where this vastly improved defense is. they were bottom 5 in the league last year so i guess there really isnt much lower they could go. i guess thats what you mean?

I was joking around. I was saying he MUST be good if he has a nickname.

[ericanadian]

Canadian, don't celebrate it.
But - happy fourth to you.

Also Canadian, but am in the US for the week. Had drank a bit last night. I apologize for my overreaction.

[knotts4372]

mathieu is really bad in coverage so their secondary is no better than last year. he's a big name that is gonna take the overpay they gave him and be just as average as hes been for a few years now. i really wanna know where this vastly improved defense is. they were bottom 5 in the league last year so i guess there really isnt much lower they could go. i guess thats what you mean?

I was joking around. I was saying he MUST be good if he has a nickname.

i realized that lol. just was looking for a reason to make a further point lol

[jcc6fd]

Responding to a few KC doubt points

1. Justin Houston isn’t good anymore so Clark really only needs to replace Ford in a new system.

2. Berry was never on the field so Matthieu is a big improvement on defense

Not sayin the defense will be good, but it could be better.

3. Losing Mitch Morse is a valid concern.

4. Mahomes isn’t bound to regress, just his stats. Just because he might have fewer TDS/yards doesn’t mean he can’t play at a similar level or better with more experience, thus helping the team win games.

This team was several singular plays away from being in the Super Bowl and beating the undermanned Rams. Now people are talking like they won’t make the playoffs do to a few personnel changes and apparently last year’s MVP sucks

[TimeWillTell]

I won't rehash others points in only here to say As a previous KC area native and casual fan, I expect 10-12 wins but 8-9 wouldn't shock given their schedule. My biggest concern is the Chargers. Chiefs may need the wild card to get into the playoffs.

[Patsfan86]

I won't rehash others points in only here to say As a previous KC area native and casual fan, I expect 10-12 wins but 8-9 wouldn't shock given their schedule. My biggest concern is the Chargers. Chiefs may need the wild card to get into the playoffs.

Totally agree here, that charger team is very very good and no one should be looking past them in that division. Offense should be better if williams progresses like he did last season, and the defense is very good. I also think the other teams got better in that division as well. Also Gillette in December is gonna be a rough one. Pats are historically very good that month and at home. I still voted 9-11 since like others have said its hard to see a team that was that close to a Super Bowl appearance not even making the playoffs but nothing is a sure thing in this sport.