KC Chiefs win projection

[ericanadian]

I’d be more worried about that if some team had figured out a way to even slow him down. The lowest point total they put up all year was 26. The Rams forced five turnovers, so I guess you could build something from that, but having the high powered offense of their own was a least a part of that.

I think Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have more to worry about on this front given how the Chargers shut him down.

Yeah, DC's who had 10+ games of film on him last year didn't fare well. I don't know what the last few games changes. Maybe a whole offseason to plan? I don't know how much of a team's offseason is spent strategizing for one opponent.

KC's biggest concern will obviously still be their defense, which is exacerbated by trading away it's best player in Dee Ford. If there are offensive concerns those are establishing a run game with questionable RBs and replacing Hill's producing in any games he's suspended. Mahomes will likely continue to be a terror.

Yes, a whole offseason to plan. The first offseason for any new breakout scheme or player is when DCs can really scheme up a storm. Being known as the DC who found a way to stop Reid/Mahomes has great value. Coaches will hide their best plays for matchups like that.

Cult pointed out the not-easy schedule and now I have to look at the coaching history blueboy noted.

This isn’t a new offense a la Chip Kelly. Prior to Mahomes they were a top ten offense three out of five years with Reid and Alex Smith and won at least nine games all five years. Kelce is a top tier TE. The running game has been plug n play for years. Even if one or two DCs figure out a way to contain Mahomes, he’ll still light up the guys that dont, and they will still be the majority.

[jcc6fd]

My argument was that there isn’t a plan that can beat him. Maybe there’s a way to slow him down but when he’s that much better than you, you can’t plan around it.

[Pullo Vision]

Even if one or two DCs figure out a way to contain Mahomes, he’ll still light up the guys that dont, and they will still be the majority.

Everyone's fawning over Mahomes now. It's hard to find any articles/clips/posts that talk about his negatives and flaws. So, I had to go back to 2017 NFL draft pieces-
https://www.battleredblog.com/2017/4/17 ... ing-report
https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/09/22/c ... eport/amp/

I'm curious if there's been any analysis of his NFL film to see if the pre-draft flaws identified have been addressed. One of the articles I read (maybe one if these two) said he was a 2 sport athlete until a coach told him he'd need to grind film in the NFL, so he dropped baseball and locked himself in the film room. If he used his rookie to address his flaws, that would give me greater confidence in him long term.

[jcc6fd]

Even if one or two DCs figure out a way to contain Mahomes, he’ll still light up the guys that dont, and they will still be the majority.

Everyone's fawning over Mahomes now. It's hard to find any articles/clips/posts that talk about his negatives and flaws. So, I had to go back to 2017 NFL draft pieces-
https://www.battleredblog.com/2017/4/17 ... ing-report
https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/09/22/c ... eport/amp/

I'm curious if there's been any analysis of his NFL film to see if the pre-draft flaws identified have been addressed. One of the articles I read (maybe one if these two) said he was a 2 sport athlete until a coach told him he'd need to grind film in the NFL, so he dropped baseball and locked himself in the film room. If he used his rookie to address his flaws, that would give me greater confidence in him long term.

He won the league MVP award in what essentially his rookie season. I think you can proceed with a certain level of confidence.

[Phaded]

I don't think you can fairly say "it was essentially his rookie season".
His first season as starter, sure? But people underestimate the value of learning for a year.

[jcc6fd]

I don't think you can fairly say "it was essentially his rookie season".
His first season as starter, sure? But people underestimate the value of learning for a year.

Give me a break, he’s historically great at an incredibly early age. I don’t know why people think they need to be the voice of reason on Mahomes . If this is the logic we’re criticizing him on then we should actually give him more credit for not playing football until late in highschool

[Phaded]

Sure, he had a historically great year, but people make this presumption that young guns have nowhere to go but up. That has been proven incorrect time and time again.

I'm not saying I think he will bust, personally. However there are a lot of circles calling him the best quarterback in the league. That is a bit much at this point. I think he will be a very good quarterback for some time barring an injury; but everyone does this every single year with breakout players.

[jcc6fd]

I agree with the principle, just think that concern is alleviated because he’s shown he can play at an MVP level. Not just an elite level, but the best player in the league. Yet people talk about his year like it was a fluke. He won’t be the MVP every year, obviously, but I think we can be confident in him going forward. The “could he a bust” or “could he be great” questions are essentially answered. The fact that those questions still exist are what annoys me as a biased Chiefs fan.

I don’t think you can definitively crown him the best QB in the league yet without at least another year of evidence (maybe more).

[Phaded]

The likes of Cam Newton & Matt Ryan recently won MVP as well though and they are far from that elite "best in the game" tier.

Heck, Cam basically faceplanted since winning it himself. So MVP is not some definitive factor, albeit extremely nice to have on the resume.

The Chiefs have their future quarterback but they still have to build a team around him. Easier said than done; just ask guys like Peyton, Rodgers & Brees.

Once they pay him is when it will get interesting, they have a short window to capitalize on the contracts him & Hill have.

[FantasyFreak]

I'm hoping the 0-2 prediction was someone's idea of a joke.

[Cult of Dionysus]

The likes of Cam Newton & Matt Ryan recently won MVP as well though and they are far from that elite "best in the game" tier.

Heck, Cam basically faceplanted since winning it himself. So MVP is not some definitive factor, albeit extremely nice to have on the resume.

The Chiefs have their future quarterback but they still have to build a team around him. Easier said than done; just ask guys like Peyton, Rodgers & Brees.

Once they pay him is when it will get interesting, they have a short window to capitalize on the contracts him & Hill have.

Child please. Newton and Ryan don't deserve to hold Mahomes' jock strap.

[Pullo Vision]

Even if one or two DCs figure out a way to contain Mahomes, he’ll still light up the guys that dont, and they will still be the majority.

Everyone's fawning over Mahomes now. It's hard to find any articles/clips/posts that talk about his negatives and flaws. So, I had to go back to 2017 NFL draft pieces-
https://www.battleredblog.com/2017/4/17 ... ing-report
https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/09/22/c ... eport/amp/

I'm curious if there's been any analysis of his NFL film to see if the pre-draft flaws identified have been addressed. One of the articles I read (maybe one if these two) said he was a 2 sport athlete until a coach told him he'd need to grind film in the NFL, so he dropped baseball and locked himself in the film room. If he used his rookie to address his flaws, that would give me greater confidence in him long term.

He won the league MVP award in what essentially his rookie season. I think you can proceed with a certain level of confidence.

A certain level, yes. That level is in the "I'm fairly confident he's not a bust" range. He undoubtedly put up big numbers in a great situation. My question long term is if he's more like Stafford or Russel Wilson. In the future, when he's no longer with Reid, can he produce at, say mid QB1 levels even if the scheme tilts heavily towards the run game like Russel Wilson has? Or, is he more like Stafford, who has been useful when the volume/situation has been there, but became a regular fantasy bench warmer once Patricia built the offense around the run?

[jcc6fd]

Broad answer to both of you, none of the players mentioned (Ryan, Cam, Wilson, not Stafford) have ever produced anything close to what Mahomes did last year. He was a marvel. He has physical tools they don’t have. He has natural composure.

I just don’t understand the doubts. So many people want to point to some other player or circumstance and say that is why Mahomes was successful. He certainly had help (as all successful athletes do), but he’s the star. Not Hill, not Reid, or the scheme. It’s Patrick. He’s really that good. If it matters, I watch every KC game. I go to a few games a year. It’s a relative surprise when they don’t score on a drive and at 3rd and 15 you have complete confidence he’ll pick it up. That never existed with Smith (for those of you arguing for the system).

I appreciate that you want to see him do it again before crowning him the best QB in the league over Rodgers. That’s fair. I just don’t think his critics are taking in the full breadth of how great he was last season. You don’t complete a season like that by accident, or good fortune, or because your coach or team was also elite. These concerns seem more appropriate for a player like Goff, who truly had a better supporting cast and a coach revered nearly as well as Reid as an offensive mind.

[Sriracha]

Broad answer to both of you, none of the players mentioned (Ryan, Cam, Wilson, not Stafford) have ever produced anything close to what Mahomes did last year. He was a marvel. He has physical tools they don’t have. He has natural composure.

I just don’t understand the doubts. So many people want to point to some other player or circumstance and say that is why Mahomes was successful. He certainly had help (as all successful athletes do), but he’s the star. Not Hill, not Reid, or the scheme. It’s Patrick. He’s really that good. If it matters, I watch every KC game. I go to a few games a year. It’s a relative surprise when they don’t score on a drive and at 3rd and 15 you have complete confidence he’ll pick it up. That never existed with Smith (for those of you arguing for the system).

I appreciate that you want to see him do it again before crowning him the best QB in the league over Rodgers. That’s fair. I just don’t think his critics are taking in the full breadth of how great he was last season. You don’t complete a season like that by accident, or good fortune, or because your coach or team was also elite. These concerns seem more appropriate for a player like Goff, who truly had a better supporting cast and a coach revered nearly as well as Reid as an offensive mind.

You want to claim that Goff had a better supporting cast than Mahomes? Both had an elite supporting cast; but KC had the best supporting cast in 2017 and they added Sammy Watkins that offseason.

I believe the skepticism on calling him an elite QB at this point is well warranted, and those calling him the best QB in the NFL are overzealous. If Tyreek misses substantial time this season that's going to be a nice litmus test for him.

He had one of the greatest seasons of all time, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves. Matt Ryan had almost 5k yards passing, 38 TDs to 7ints in his MVP season-- that's comparably impressive to Mahome's season, imo. Derek Carr was an MVP candidate with a much worse supporting cast in 2016... people are very quick to jump to best case scenarios for young QBs that show elite production for a season-- but 16 games is really not a large sample size. I'm convinced he's at least a very good QB, time will tell if he's truly elite or a future HoFer.

[ninotoreS]

The Mahomes doubt is a head-scratcher. Have the skeptics even watched the football played? Even if you haven't, you know Mahomes threw twice as many TDs as Smith the year previous, with an almost identical supporting cast and a newly promoted OC that had never coordinated an NFL team before last season.

Mahomes is a modern NFL nightmare; he has Brett Favre arm-talent in a mobile QB package, a precocious football brain, clutch under pressure, makes his progressions and doesn't turnover the football, and he's only 23. I questioned the hype last offseason. People questioning it now are just jelly they didn't acquire shares (for the record: I own none... I went all in on Watson from that class :$).

Sure, the stats will probably regress a bit this year. So what? This is dynasty; that an age 23 season is already viewed as an outlier more likely indicates there's additional seasons like it to come over the next decade. Mahomes in real football terms probably isn't even playing the best football of his career yet.