Contract Reality: New NFL Paradigm

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Contract Reality: New NFL Paradigm

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:36 am

So the entire Khalil Mack thing kind of got me thinking about the NFL and how teams build. Most media, and a lot on here called Gruden an idiot for trading Mack. He commanded a 141 million dollar contract, and a cap hit of 26.6 million on his extension through the first 2 years, and 27 plus million in his 3rd year. The Raiders gained 2 first round picks. Now, everything is dependent on the QB contract in this regard. Gruden already had Carr locked in at a steep price, and I feel it was the smart move to trade Mack. Gaining 2 first rounders for a guy about to command over 5X his salary from the previous year was an obvious choice. DE's don't age well, for the most part. Where is Justin Houston, now?

To the opposite, the Bears had a QB on a rookie deal, and could afford in a shot window, a contract like Mack's to bolster their D. They drastically improved last year. Everyone who really doesn't look at this as a double edged sword think the Raiders were idiots, and the Bears made a great move.

I'd argue it works for both teams. In FA this year, the Raiders have added a started LT, a starting safety/slot corner, and were able to trade for AB, as well as sign Tyrell Williams. They now have 4 picks in the top 35 in a very good defensive class. I am a Raider fan, and always agreed with the Mack trade, philosophically.

Here is a list of projected contracts for franchise tagged players in the NFL, and a few of them are DE with young QB's on their rookie deals. I would expect to see more teams in the future make major trades like the Mack deal, or franchise players like Bell, and see them hold out. The Raiders did it before Mack hit the point where he could be franchised. With these types of looming contracts, expect player to take a more aggressive approach, like Bell, and AB, and teams eventually start dealing players before the franchise option has to come up.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... ed-players
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Re: Contract Reality: New NFL Paradigm

Postby Shcritters » Fri Mar 29, 2019 5:01 am

FF - I hear what you are saying and agree. Bill Barnwell has written extensively on this topic on ESPN - how the winning formula is to have QB on a rookie deal so you can spend the money elsewhere. With all of the talent available in the NFL, it is just becoming harder and harder to have a $25M QB when you have 21 other positions to fill, plus backups, plus special teams.

Not that it is any corollary, but in my Salary Cap league (which has player holdouts) this is exactly the process I use. You have to get ahead of the curve, but I almost always trade holdout players for draft capital (who are on cheap rookie contracts for 3 guaranteed years). You just have to make sure it is early draft capital and to hit in your picks or the system falls apart. It wouldn’t surprise me if Lynch has been following my fantasy team and decided to use the same process (sarcasm intended).
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Re: Contract Reality: New NFL Paradigm

Postby Mjvb5 » Sat Mar 30, 2019 5:50 am

Yep the reality of it is Khalil Mack is gray, yes. I think he’s a top 10 player in the entirety of the nfl. However when one single player takes that much investment at any position, even a qb they’re value starts to drop. When you have to allocate 22.5M AAY, and by extension two first round draft picks to lock up a single player, especially a non QB, it’s ndver worth it. When this trade got made I said the raiders won, they guy any free agent of there choice+2 first rounders essentially for a single player. Now while the raiders win no matter what, the bears could win as well.... however in order for the bears to win too they need an SB.

Just for a corrollary from this class what would you rather have
2 firsts + trey flowers or Khalil Mack
I’m taking flowers and the picks

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Re: Contract Reality: New NFL Paradigm

Postby Vcize » Sat Mar 30, 2019 6:42 am

I agree to some extent. On the flipside teams can easily make up that money by not investing so much in middle of the road players.

$25 million/year is Tyrell Williams + Kwon Alexander. I'd much rather ditch 2 players of that caliber and pay my stud than vice versa.

Likewise the Dolphins last year were unwilling to pay Jarvis Landry $15 million. So instead they signed Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola for....a combined $16 million.
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Re: Contract Reality: New NFL Paradigm

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:07 am

Vcize wrote: Sat Mar 30, 2019 6:42 am I agree to some extent. On the flipside teams can easily make up that money by not investing so much in middle of the road players.

$25 million/year is Tyrell Williams + Kwon Alexander. I'd much rather ditch 2 players of that caliber and pay my stud than vice versa.

Likewise the Dolphins last year were unwilling to pay Jarvis Landry $15 million. So instead they signed Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola for....a combined $16 million.
Agree, to some extent. Raiders can rent Tyrell for a year and ditch him. These top end guys want guaranteed money and the cap hit on the contracts can be severe. In the example of Mack, he was going to make over 5 times what he did the previous year, and the defense still sucked. As a result they got 2 first rounders. They added Joyner already. So Joyner plus those 2 firsts probably don't even equal Mack's yearly hit. I think a lot comes down to the team situation. The Raiders were full of holes. Mack getting a massive contract on the Raiders would guarantee mediocrity at best. They did not have a deep enough roster. The Bears did, and a QB on a rookie contract, which the Raiders didn't. The Raiders made the right move with their roster. They won a ton of games late in 2016, Carr was magic, and they outscored their opposition by about 30 or 40 points on the year, but went 12-4. Mack took over games late that year on D, he was amazing. However, that was not sustainable. The next year they went 6-10. What I am saying is it makes a huge difference if you have the rookie QB contract. Had they signed Mack, they would have had the same bad team, with 20 million less in cap space.

I don't know if Gruden will make it work, but I know it would have been an irreparable mistake to sign Mack to that type of deal with that roster, as a life time fan of the Raiders. Getting 2 firsts was amazing. The mainstream media ripped him, and to this day I stand by that move as a good move for a franchise that did not have the roster depth to compete, and the Bears made a bold move that definitely boosted their situation at the time, too.
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Re: Contract Reality: New NFL Paradigm

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:05 am

Hyper-specific bone to pick:

I would argue that edge rushers actually age better than almost any other position. Elite ones often stay difference makers into their early 30s, and the special ones can continue making some sort of impact even to 35+ years old. Their careers often mirror WRs in that way.
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Re: Contract Reality: New NFL Paradigm

Postby Phaded » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:33 am

Big contracts are necessary to keep your big-time players but they are often detrimental to the long-term success of the team.
It's not a coincidence that the 7-8 (I forget which number it was) highest paid quarterbacks in the league did not make the playoffs last year.

While the players deserve the contracts - the best NFL teams are not those with established veterans who are making top dollar but a blend of those higher paid ones and players on cheap contracts (often rookies) who are outperforming their contract.

As much as it helps to have that one elite option - there are ten other men on the field with that elite option and all it takes is a mediocre player to make a costly mistake to counter the advantages that elite player has.

It is one of the reasons that the Patriots have been as successful as they are.
Take a look at their contract layout as a team; they continually load up on low-paid players and know how to use them well.

The Eagles two years ago when they won, were very well-rounded and didn't have those studs that they paid.

At the end of the day - those elite players are nice, but if the rest of your team is not good; it doesn't matter.

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Re: Contract Reality: New NFL Paradigm

Postby Ice » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:07 am

The reality in the NFL is the top paid player on each team is most likely
1) QB
1A) D line: DT, DE, or Edge in 3/4. Scheme dictates.

3) LT
4) WR
5) DB

It has been this way for years so don't see a big difference. I list QB's and D line as 1 and 1A since the spit is probably really close between teams.

Agree that D line including edge rushers age really well at the top tier. Mack, Donald, Miller and the like are worth the money.

Fletcher Cox with the Eagles as an example has a 102 million dollar contract.
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Re: Contract Reality: New NFL Paradigm

Postby jenkins.math » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:31 am

Phaded wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:33 am Big contracts are necessary to keep your big-time players but they are often detrimental to the long-term success of the team.
It's not a coincidence that the 7-8 (I forget which number it was) highest paid quarterbacks in the league did not make the playoffs last year.

While the players deserve the contracts - the best NFL teams are not those with established veterans who are making top dollar but a blend of those higher paid ones and players on cheap contracts (often rookies) who are outperforming their contract.

As much as it helps to have that one elite option - there are ten other men on the field with that elite option and all it takes is a mediocre player to make a costly mistake to counter the advantages that elite player has.

It is one of the reasons that the Patriots have been as successful as they are.
Take a look at their contract layout as a team; they continually load up on low-paid players and know how to use them well.

The Eagles two years ago when they won, were very well-rounded and didn't have those studs that they paid.

At the end of the day - those elite players are nice, but if the rest of your team is not good; it doesn't matter.
A lot of what you said is true, but it is Bill Belichick that makes it work for the Pats. Belichick won 11 games with Matt Cassel for crying out loud. Honestly a great HC masks a lot of issues and I always find it amusing how it is usually the HC that gets sacrificed in sports over the player. But look at the most stable franchises in sports over the last 15-20 years like the Pats and Spurs in the NBA. Why are they stable? An all time great running the show as a HC.

I do think though that the trend of loading up everywhere else while you have a QB on his rookie deal is here to stay. It made the Seahawks incredible for a few years. The Eagles won a title with that mantra. The Bears are greatly improved. The Rams and Chiefs are nasty. The Browns are the talk of the league right now. You get my point.

Where you run into trouble is when you pay the wrong guy big bucks. Rodgers deserves to be paid and he masks a lot of issues on offense the same way Peyton Manning would turn WRs into Pro Bowlers, but then he got hurt and the Colts started 0-14. The issue lies in the guys at 2nd highest to 6th highest paid in the league (Ryan, Cousins, Jimmy G, Stafford, Carr). Those guys have to be able to carry a team because they are eating up too much of the cap and I'm not sure those guys can do that. It's no wonder those teams were kind of in no man's land this season and just hanging around the middle of the pack. They aren't bad players necessarily, but I don't think their teams will see a good return on their investment.

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Re: Contract Reality: New NFL Paradigm

Postby Phaded » Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:11 pm

jenkins.math wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:31 am
Phaded wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:33 am Big contracts are necessary to keep your big-time players but they are often detrimental to the long-term success of the team.
It's not a coincidence that the 7-8 (I forget which number it was) highest paid quarterbacks in the league did not make the playoffs last year.

While the players deserve the contracts - the best NFL teams are not those with established veterans who are making top dollar but a blend of those higher paid ones and players on cheap contracts (often rookies) who are outperforming their contract.

As much as it helps to have that one elite option - there are ten other men on the field with that elite option and all it takes is a mediocre player to make a costly mistake to counter the advantages that elite player has.

It is one of the reasons that the Patriots have been as successful as they are.
Take a look at their contract layout as a team; they continually load up on low-paid players and know how to use them well.

The Eagles two years ago when they won, were very well-rounded and didn't have those studs that they paid.

At the end of the day - those elite players are nice, but if the rest of your team is not good; it doesn't matter.
A lot of what you said is true, but it is Bill Belichick that makes it work for the Pats. Belichick won 11 games with Matt Cassel for crying out loud. Honestly a great HC masks a lot of issues and I always find it amusing how it is usually the HC that gets sacrificed in sports over the player. But look at the most stable franchises in sports over the last 15-20 years like the Pats and Spurs in the NBA. Why are they stable? An all time great running the show as a HC.
"one of the reasons".

I never said BB was not a factor; but in line with what I said, they do not overspend and then he knows how to use those cheap players. Which is basically what I said.

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Re: Contract Reality: New NFL Paradigm

Postby djeternal2 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:49 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:05 am Hyper-specific bone to pick:

I would argue that edge rushers actually age better than almost any other position. Elite ones often stay difference makers into their early 30s, and the special ones can continue making some sort of impact even to 35+ years old. Their careers often mirror WRs in that way.
I agree here. In regards to Justin Houston he tore his ACL in 2016 and hasn't been the same since. If you are trying to make the argument that DE/edge rushers don't age well he is not the one to throw out there imo.
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Re: Contract Reality: New NFL Paradigm

Postby lukkynumber13 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:14 pm

djeternal2 wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:49 pm
lukkynumber13 wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:05 am Hyper-specific bone to pick:

I would argue that edge rushers actually age better than almost any other position. Elite ones often stay difference makers into their early 30s, and the special ones can continue making some sort of impact even to 35+ years old. Their careers often mirror WRs in that way.
I agree here. In regards to Justin Houston he tore his ACL in 2016 and hasn't been the same since. If you are trying to make the argument that DE/edge rushers don't age well he is not the one to throw out there imo.
And honestly, Houston has still been an elite difference maker whenever he’s been on the field even the past few years. He’s struggled with injuries (which can happen with any position obviously), but when healthy he’s still a stud
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