Pokerface Startup Draft Strategy

[dlf_jules]

Deal 2:

Give: 2.01, 4.01 Receive: 1.02, 2016 1st (giving me four)

Both look good for me for different reasons, but I am leaning towards deal 2. Thoughts?

I'd look for a kickback pick (even if it's just a 10th), but ultimately I'd take this offer. It's good value -- think of it as Cobb + 1.05 for Dez + 2016 1st -- plus it establishes you as the guy who's buying 2016 1sts. In my experience, that's a good thing.

[Pork Sword]

Deal 2:

Give: 2.01, 4.01 Receive: 1.02, 2016 1st (giving me four)

ACCEPT THIS! Damn good value. I'm extremely surprised by the amount of good offers coming your way. I'd do the deal, and would consider trading back from the 1.02 for another 1st(altho it might be difficult to find a deal. At this point, people will see what youre doing and likely try and charge more for their 1st, knowing that's what you want). Your strategy is looking good So far. Hopefully it works out for you man, keep us posted.

[pokerface40]

Deal 2:

Give: 2.01, 4.01 Receive: 1.02, 2016 1st (giving me four)

ACCEPT THIS! Damn good value. I'm extremely surprised by the amount of good offers coming your way. I'd do the deal, and would consider trading back from the 1.02 for another 1st(altho it might be difficult to find a deal. At this point, people will see what youre doing and likely try and charge more for their 1st, knowing that's what you want). Your strategy is looking good So far. Hopefully it works out for you man, keep us posted.

The thing is I offered and am waiting to see if he accepts. He started off offering me the same deal but a 2016 2nd, not first. When I countered with the current offer he posted a question on our message board about roster size and the 2016 rookie draft. So I guess he is a newbie to dynasty (like me) but doesn't know the value of future picks and is doing research now. I stressed to him the value he is getting with the 4.01 so hopefully he accepts.

On another note I am surprised that my initial question has morphed into this long thread. This forum is a Godsend! So thank you everyone for the interest and help, I hope to keep getting advice leading up to the draft. I might have to rename my team DLF Forum All-Stars.

[StrikeAnywhere]

If you can get that 2nd deal done you gotta take it.

Looking at ADP right now, the top 3 players have late 2nd to early 3rd round startup value, being taken 22nd, 27th, and 32nd overall on average. Parker and DGB are in the 40's. Ajai in the 50's. This is all before they even have an NFL team or have done anything to hype their value in training camp. Acquiring future 1sts is playing a bit of a longer game with the development of your team. But if you can keep stockpiling picks by moving all over the draft then you are doing yourself a HUGE favor come next season.

Add your 16 2nd to the deal if he waivers, and as soon as you have that 1.02 start trying to trade down again to grab another future pick. If you could end up at 1.08 or 1.09 and still take an elite top 10 player while adding at least one more 16 1st and possibly a 2nd you will have the top of that draft cornered without significantly impacting the foundation of your team or its ability to compete now. And if you go all in on that strategy and start picking rookies as early as the 3rd round you probably won't be winning a ton this season, but you will be positioning yourself to own the pieces you need to make practically any trade you want to shape your team in the '16 offseason. It's the long game for sure, but if you have the patience for it man can it be fun.

[pokerface40]

UPDATE!! The guy with the 1.02 got cold feet and couldn't pull the trigger. I then put out some feelers and this s what it turned into:

I gave my 2.01, 4.01, and 2016 2nd

I received his 1.05, 7.05, and 2016 1st

For those keeping tabs, to this point I have given my 1.12, 2.01, 4.01, 16.01, and 2016 2nd. I have received the 1.05, 2.12, 7.05, 8.05, and three 2016 1sts.

Now what?

[dlf_jules]

For those keeping tabs, to this point I have given my 1.12, 2.01, 4.01, 16.01, and 2016 2nd. I have received the 1.05, 2.12, 7.05, 8.05, and three 2016 1sts.

Now what?

First, you buy sloth and me a drink for recommending you buy, not sell, future 1sts. Next, you try to turn your 7th rounders into 2016 1sts.

[pokerface40]

Haha if you ever make it to Las Vegas, where I live, I will gladly buy you a drink. But what about the 4th round? Should I try to package my extra 7th and 8th to try to get back in?

[pack4ever22]

Wow, love what you have done here. Looking at the net result of your deals you came out as a huge winner. I did something very similar in a startup last year and ended up with 7 rookie picks this year including 4 in the top 5, and though my team was not the strongest coming out of the startup I gave myself fantastic flexibility for this year and haven't regretted any of my trades for a second. Based on my experience last year and the deals you have already completed I highly recomend that you continue to buy 2016 firsts. Right now people are enamored with startup picks and this years crop of rookies and are selling 2016 firsts for cheap. If you can manage to corner the market on 2016 picks those picks will only increase in value and you will be able to dictate prices for those picks as people come crawling to you to get their rookie crushes next year. You might not compete this year but your team will be in a fantastic position next year, plus its a lot of fun. Really love the direction you are going so far and I highly recommend that you continue down the path you are on. I would honestly probably look to trade back to the later first and try to pick up another 2016 first, and then explore turning some of your extra 7th and 8th round picks into 2016 firsts like Jules recommended (though in my experience this is easier when your actually on the clock). I wouldn't worry too much about getting back into the 4th round right now, if someone falls on draft day that you have to have then go for it but for now I think you are in great shape.

[Patmos]

I love what you have done, but be careful not to keep trading and lose what I believe is a very powerful position - the 1.05. At 1.05 you get an elite WR, which should be the foundation of your team. Trading down from there would be risky. I have lost track of what you are now holding, so maybe you can list all picks from round 10 and up? I would actually be focused on grabbing additional studs (top 5 at their position annually) in the startup. Personally, I don't have 24 players on my 'elite' list, but maybe you do. Maybe offer the 2.12/7.08/8.05 to move back up to grab another stud (how deep is your 'elite' list?). If you are unable to do that, wait until you are on the clock and the 7.05 might net you another future first.

[sloth8u]

Haha if you ever make it to Las Vegas, where I live, I will gladly buy you a drink. But what about the 4th round? Should I try to package my extra 7th and 8th to try to get back in?

with what youve done so far...you dont look to package to move up in your draft. all the value you've gained is by moving down. dont give that up by moving up yourself. from my experience...you dont move up until you know exactly what your getting. so why move the 7th/8th up right now when you dont know who you will be able to draft with the pick your getting in return. if you want to do this during your draft when you know exactly who you will draft, thats fine.

if your looking for picks in the 4th range. start shopping 3.12 to the 4.5-4.9 owners. looking to give your 3rd and 7th for their 4th and 5th. player value is all about the same in that 3rd-5th range. you would essentially be turning 1 pick into 2 if you can find a taker. you may have to throw in a 12th or something to sweeten the deal. not really a problem for you, just dont give up future 1sts in any deal.

im not sure what all you hold either. so list what you have in the top 10 rds, so we all know exactly what you have. im not so sure i wouldnt look to package 2.12 and 3.12 up a rd in exchange for a late 1st-early 2nd and their 5th. i really would need to see what your working with. i think you have the potential to start off with possibly green, dez, julio, dt, brown...then sammy, jeffery, nuk, gronk, cobb...then lynch, gio, foster with two 5th rd picks...a 3rd wr in rd 6, then address qb in the 7th.

take a second to show us what your working with now. we can help give you a few options if we know exactly what you have. i think there is potential to move the 2.12 and 3.12 in either direction to get some solid value here, but i hate to offer any thoughts without knowing exactly what you have.

if your like most of us, you would like to build a team that can compete at minimum. you dont want to be trading just to trade or you will get yourself in a mess. just so you know...if it were my team that i was building and making these moves, i would be looking to be competitive, not a bottom feeder. i wouldnt let age play a big factor in any picks i make. thats why you pick up all these future picks along the way. with that thought in mind...guys being drafted in the mid 2nd carry the same kind of immediate prodction as guys taken in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rds. you can build a contender with this strategy if you choose is all im getting at. you dont have to go all youth and build for the future.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

For those keeping tabs, to this point I have given my 1.12, 2.01, 4.01, 16.01, and 2016 2nd. I have received the 1.05, 2.12, 7.05, 8.05, and three 2016 1sts.

Now what?

First, you buy sloth and me a drink for recommending you buy, not sell, future 1sts. Next, you try to turn your 7th rounders into 2016 1sts.

I know each deal is outlined but how is this even possible lol. as said before, now don't screw it up.

[pokerface40]

What about what to do at 1.05? My thinking all along has been WR. But now that I am clearly built for youth would it be crazy to take the plunge and lock up Andrew Luck for the next 10 years? If Dez, Julio, OBJ or Evans fall to me I am taking them. I know Gronk is an option but I am not crazy about that idea. As I said before I am targeting Kelce at 3.12 as I think he gets close to Gronk tier at a cheaper price. Luck is mighty tempting though!

[grooner]

What about what to do at 1.05? My thinking all along has been WR. But now that I am clearly built for youth would it be crazy to take the plunge and lock up Andrew Luck for the next 10 years? If Dez, Julio, OBJ or Evans fall to me I am taking them. I know Gronk is an option but I am not crazy about that idea. As I said before I am targeting Kelce at 3.12 as I think he gets close to Gronk tier at a cheaper price. Luck is mighty tempting though!

Love the trades u have done so far, as others have said keep trying to acquire those 2016 firsts.

As for the 1.05, I would still be looking to get a wr there, my order is ajg, brown, dez, Julio. If all four are taken I would consider trading back and picking up value as I think you can get luck a little later possibly

[StrikeAnywhere]

You have done fantastic so far. As others have said, keep accumulating value by moving down... there are more deals to be had. What is scoring for QBs? 6pt tds I would maybe think about luck if he is there in the back half of round 1.

If you stay at 5, I would probably be more inclined to go Gronk. DLF ADP has DT, Luck, Megatron, Alshon and Watkins going from 9-13 on average. Those are some good choices, and if you move down again you could pick up another early pick in startup or another 16 pick.

Maybe try doing a 1.05 and 2.12 for 1.09 and 2.04 type deal? Or try moving down to acquire a couple extra picks in the 3rd-4th where you can pick a couple of the top incoming rookies from the 15 class... Gurley/White/Cooper would be pretty good extras to tack onto your roster if you can get them for just moving down a few places in other rounds.

[sloth8u]

But now that I am clearly built for youth........

in the drafts that ive moved around like this and acquired future 1sts like you have. i didnt draft youth. i went for sure production and knew exactly what i was getting. that way i had solid pieces in place already and could swing for the fences with the future picks, or trade the picks for impact players that would fit nicely with my team that was already very strong. when you do pick, i would be looking to get the safest players available since you have those future picks to work with. use those future picks for youth. try to build a contender now. you can always look for youth in the later rds of your startup.

as to drafting luck...you could probably move back again if thats what your looking to do. i would think the 8/9 spot would get you him, but you never know what will happen in a draft.