Julius Thomas for 1.11+

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Raftery's Onions
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Julius Thomas for 1.11+

Postby Raftery's Onions » Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:13 am

Please help me pick a side.

Give:
Julius Thomas
2016 4th

Receive:
1.11
2016 2nd
Vernon Davis

Should I do this deal?
12 Team PPR - Start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1W/R/T, K, DEF

Year 7
QB - Roethlisberger, RGIII
RB - Gio, M. Jones, Sims, Forsett
WR - AJG, Evans, K. Allen, TY, Crabtree, Aiken
TE - Kelce, Fleener, Graham

Year 3
QB - Roethlisberger, Bortles
RB - D. Johnson, Martin, Gio, Henry
WR - Julio, Evans, Cooks, Moncrief, Lockett, Gordon
TE - Reed, L. Green, McDonald

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Re: Julius Thomas for 1.11+

Postby stapel0 » Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:25 am

I still think Thomas has difference making talent and VD is on the downside of his overhyped (fantasy-wise) career. I wouldn't be making that trade - and I'd easily give up 1.11+filler to get JT regardless of positional needs (like, even if I already had Graham and Gronk).

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Re: Julius Thomas for 1.11+

Postby maxhyde » Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:32 am

Pretty close for me.
I am targetting Davis a s a buy low guy. He may get free of his junk QB this year.
I also think JT is a Manning machination so selling now before the bottom completely drops off to Jared Cook value may be a decent idea
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Swaim, Maxx Williams

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Re: Julius Thomas for 1.11+

Postby stapel0 » Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:46 am

I think Davis has never been a difference making fantasy TE, save his one season the year before last (2013) where he had an outlier TD scoring rate (13 TDs on 52 receptions for 850 yards.)

I'm skeptical getting rid of one of the best NFL coaches is going to be a boon to anyone's fantasy value there in SF.

Thomas is a difference maker, and a key piece of what allowed Manning to play at a record level late in his career. JT benefits from Manning, and vice versa.

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Re: Julius Thomas for 1.11+

Postby Raftery's Onions » Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:59 am

Made the trade. My three biggest reasons:

1) I own Ertz and Ladarius. I'm a big believer in both

2) I think we've already seen Julius' peak

3) There's at least a small chance that Vernon Davis ends up on a pass-first team that utilizes his talent more efficiently. It's possible he has a couple 2014 Antonio Gates-type years left in him.
12 Team PPR - Start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1W/R/T, K, DEF

Year 7
QB - Roethlisberger, RGIII
RB - Gio, M. Jones, Sims, Forsett
WR - AJG, Evans, K. Allen, TY, Crabtree, Aiken
TE - Kelce, Fleener, Graham

Year 3
QB - Roethlisberger, Bortles
RB - D. Johnson, Martin, Gio, Henry
WR - Julio, Evans, Cooks, Moncrief, Lockett, Gordon
TE - Reed, L. Green, McDonald

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Re: Julius Thomas for 1.11+

Postby Fantasyfanatic11 » Tue Jan 27, 2015 12:49 pm

J. Thomas has reached his maximum value. His value cannot get any higher! It could only go down from here so take the deal while you can!
16 team PPR
QB: Herbert Purdy Garoppolo Winston
RB: Chubb Bijan Kamara White Singletary Gainwell CEH Penny
WR: Cooper Moore Dotson Beckham Mooney Mingo Renfrow
TE: LaPorta Kittle Waller

16 Team PPR
QB: Herbert
RB: A.Jones Elliott Spears Gainwell Fournette
WR: Kupp Olave M.Williams Flowers OBJ Dotson Johnston Palmer Claypool
TE: LaPorta Schultz Njoku

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Re: Julius Thomas for 1.11+

Postby Odell Beckham Senior » Tue Jan 27, 2015 1:24 pm

Fantasyfanatic11 wrote:J. Thomas has reached his maximum value. His value cannot get any higher! It could only go down from here so take the deal while you can!
What if he ends up in Atlanta or Green Bay or back in Denver? His max value was 6 weeks into the season. It has dipped incredibly since because he injured his ankle and is testing free agency. Imo it can go up. I would only take this deal if I was a believer in VD (which I am not and am a niner fan) and the 1st round pick was mid.

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Re: Julius Thomas for 1.11+

Postby Fantasyfanatic11 » Tue Jan 27, 2015 2:42 pm

Gzus77 wrote:
Fantasyfanatic11 wrote:J. Thomas has reached his maximum value. His value cannot get any higher! It could only go down from here so take the deal while you can!
What if he ends up in Atlanta or Green Bay or back in Denver? His max value was 6 weeks into the season. It has dipped incredibly since because he injured his ankle and is testing free agency. Imo it can go up. I would only take this deal if I was a believer in VD (which I am not and am a niner fan) and the 1st round pick was mid.
Even if he resigns in Denver, when Manning is gone his value will drop.
Green Bay is worried about keeping their own guys like Cobb and Bulaga, never mind bringing in a top 3 TE who will command top dollar.

Signing in Atlanta though could boost his value, but you're holding out hope for that one
16 team PPR
QB: Herbert Purdy Garoppolo Winston
RB: Chubb Bijan Kamara White Singletary Gainwell CEH Penny
WR: Cooper Moore Dotson Beckham Mooney Mingo Renfrow
TE: LaPorta Kittle Waller

16 Team PPR
QB: Herbert
RB: A.Jones Elliott Spears Gainwell Fournette
WR: Kupp Olave M.Williams Flowers OBJ Dotson Johnston Palmer Claypool
TE: LaPorta Schultz Njoku

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Re: Julius Thomas for 1.11+

Postby Odell Beckham Senior » Tue Jan 27, 2015 3:42 pm

Fantasyfanatic11 wrote:
Gzus77 wrote:
Fantasyfanatic11 wrote:J. Thomas has reached his maximum value. His value cannot get any higher! It could only go down from here so take the deal while you can!
What if he ends up in Atlanta or Green Bay or back in Denver? His max value was 6 weeks into the season. It has dipped incredibly since because he injured his ankle and is testing free agency. Imo it can go up. I would only take this deal if I was a believer in VD (which I am not and am a niner fan) and the 1st round pick was mid.
Even if he resigns in Denver, when Manning is gone his value will drop.
Green Bay is worried about keeping their own guys like Cobb and Bulaga, never mind bringing in a top 3 TE who will command top dollar.

Signing in Atlanta though could boost his value, but you're holding out hope for that one
If he remains with Denver and peyton stays his value goes up from where it is now is my argument especially with Gary Kubiak as head coach very TE friendly offense.

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Re: Julius Thomas for 1.11+

Postby AS3Dynasty » Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:18 am

Gzus77 wrote:If he remains with Denver and peyton stays his value goes up from where it is now is my argument especially with Gary Kubiak as head coach very TE friendly offense.
I was wondering if someone was going to make this point or not. I think the Kubiak signing is huge for JT. I think, a lot like the 2014 season, his value will skyrocket through the first quarter of the 2015 season. I personally don't trust his injury history. His ankle has cost him 3 seasons now, even if they weren't full seasons. I would've held a little longer.
Team 1 - 10 Team, PPR, IDP, Year 2
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE, K, 2 LB, 2 DL, 2 DB
QB: Ryan, Palmer
RB: Gurley, Gordon, Hill, Gio, Spiller, Mason
WR: Julio, AJG, BMarsh, Cooks, JBrown, Wallace, Quick, Crowder, Huff
TE: Gates, Julius, Ladarius, Watson
K: Prater
LB: Bowman, Shazier, Posluszny
DL: Quinn, Hardy
DB: Chancellor, Talib, Norman
IR: JGordon, Fowler, Zenner

Team 2 - 10 Team, PPR, IDP-Tackle Heavy, Year 2
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE, K, 1 LB, 1 DL, 1 DB
QB: Tanny, Kaep, Bradford
RB: Foster, Hill, Yeldon, Abdullah, Duke, Bell, Blue, Mason
WR: AJG, Alshon, Floyd, Quick, Perriman, Dorsett, Huff, Conley, Woods, DSmith, Latimer, Coleman
TE: Reed, Rudolph, Watson
K: Bailey
LB: Ogletree, Telvin
DL: ABailey
DB: Cyprien
IR: Jordy, JGordon, DCobb

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Re: Julius Thomas for 1.11+

Postby clarion contrarion » Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:26 am

Fantasyfanatic11 wrote:
Gzus77 wrote:
Fantasyfanatic11 wrote:J. Thomas has reached his maximum value. His value cannot get any higher! It could only go down from here so take the deal while you can!
What if he ends up in Atlanta or Green Bay or back in Denver? His max value was 6 weeks into the season. It has dipped incredibly since because he injured his ankle and is testing free agency. Imo it can go up. I would only take this deal if I was a believer in VD (which I am not and am a niner fan) and the 1st round pick was mid.
Even if he resigns in Denver, when Manning is gone his value will drop.
Green Bay is worried about keeping their own guys like Cobb and Bulaga, never mind bringing in a top 3 TE who will command top dollar.

Signing in Atlanta though could boost his value, but you're holding out hope for that one
Gotta disagree ... if manning leaves he isn't going to slow down or shrink , he had difference making skills and manning may have helped the league figure that out but anyone that pays him will want to get $ worth and most teams have less weapons to share the ball with than denver so his value will be fine
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Re: Julius Thomas for 1.11+

Postby maxhyde » Wed Jan 28, 2015 9:54 am

clarion contrarion wrote:
Fantasyfanatic11 wrote:
Gzus77 wrote: What if he ends up in Atlanta or Green Bay or back in Denver? His max value was 6 weeks into the season. It has dipped incredibly since because he injured his ankle and is testing free agency. Imo it can go up. I would only take this deal if I was a believer in VD (which I am not and am a niner fan) and the 1st round pick was mid.
Even if he resigns in Denver, when Manning is gone his value will drop.
Green Bay is worried about keeping their own guys like Cobb and Bulaga, never mind bringing in a top 3 TE who will command top dollar.

Signing in Atlanta though could boost his value, but you're holding out hope for that one
Gotta disagree ... if manning leaves he isn't going to slow down or shrink , he had difference making skills and manning may have helped the league figure that out but anyone that pays him will want to get $ worth and most teams have less weapons to share the ball with than denver so his value will be fine
I will say again...Jared Cook.
Size/speed ratio is nice but you have to play where you get the ball. Manning puts his WR (other than Welker anyway) in a position to make a play better than most QB's. Not all QB's are created equal. JT plays more outside and deep seam than a traditional TE plays in the 'dirty' middle getting slammed by LB's and aggressive safeties. I am not saying he can't do it but he has been in a pretty awesome situation.

Anyway I don't think JT is done as a top TE or Jared Cook but I think it is not wise to assume his physical talent is all that has separated him from the crowd at TE. I think there are plenty of TE's out there every bit or more athletic than JT
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Swaim, Maxx Williams


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